REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Very cool! If I squint, I make out the pattern of a herd of horses charging forward... a very good omen indeed.The Dan wrote:1818.36
Based on the guesses so far, the average Boglehead is predicting a 2.2% increase in the S&P500 this year.
(The red line shows the 2017 starting value for the S&P500.)
http://i64.tinypic.com/5d8che.jpg
Seriously though, it is interesting to see where our collective darts are being thrown. I see a bit of a bald spot near the red line itself (indicating that people or generally guessing a move upwards or downwards, not towards neutrality), which might make for a bit of a camel-backed distribution (i.e. two humps instead one one).
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 |
lang may yer lum reek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2325.57
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. Die anyway. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Thx. That will come in handy in the future. BTW, my guess is unique.LadyGeek wrote:The top of each thread (just above the first post, below the thread title) contains a search box for the thread "Seach this topic...". Enter your prediction to see if it's already taken. Precedence goes to the first entry.P&C actuary wrote:2202.99 I don't want to look through the entries. Hopefully this is the first posting.
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
I'll say 2313.13
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2355.25
A goal without a plan is just a wish - Herm Edwards
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
$1888.88
The Espresso portfolio: |
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20% US TSM, 20% Small Value, 10% US REIT, 10% Dev Int'l, 10% EM, 10% Commodities, 20% Inter-term US Treas |
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"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Ending value: 2557.57
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" |
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https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
My guess is 2434
- Tortoise Banker
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2337 :)
The winning strategy is simple, but not easy...
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
BarryZuckerkorn - did you mean to guess 20,592.62?BarryZuckerkorn wrote:20592.62
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
madbrain - did you mean to guess 36,000?madbrain wrote:36,000
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Thanks The Dan for posting the graph earlier.
Here is a graph showing guesses through page 10, excluding BarryZuckerkorn (20592.62) and madbrain (36,000).
Here is a graph showing guesses through page 10, excluding BarryZuckerkorn (20592.62) and madbrain (36,000).
Last edited by rarvesen on Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
1816.6
TSP + Vanguard + Fidelity CMA: 80% equities / 20% bonds | "I don't shine shoes, I don’t tape ankles, I don't cut checks - straight cash homie!!" --R. Moss | Winner 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2092.00
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.
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