REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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aegis965
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by aegis965 »

2049.19
I may be biased.
giesen5
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by giesen5 »

2369.84
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k66
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by k66 »

The Dan wrote:1818.36

Based on the guesses so far, the average Boglehead is predicting a 2.2% increase in the S&P500 this year.
Image
(The red line shows the 2017 starting value for the S&P500.)
http://i64.tinypic.com/5d8che.jpg
Very cool! If I squint, I make out the pattern of a herd of horses charging forward... a very good omen indeed. :)

Seriously though, it is interesting to see where our collective darts are being thrown. I see a bit of a bald spot near the red line itself (indicating that people or generally guessing a move upwards or downwards, not towards neutrality), which might make for a bit of a camel-backed distribution (i.e. two humps instead one one).
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek
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parsi1
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by parsi1 »

2365.0
RadAudit
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RadAudit »

2325.57
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Wolfpacker »

1985.49
P&C actuary
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by P&C actuary »

LadyGeek wrote:
P&C actuary wrote:2202.99 I don't want to look through the entries. Hopefully this is the first posting.
The top of each thread (just above the first post, below the thread title) contains a search box for the thread "Seach this topic...". Enter your prediction to see if it's already taken. Precedence goes to the first entry.
Thx. That will come in handy in the future. BTW, my guess is unique.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by kaudrey »

I'll say 2313.13
diverski
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by diverski »

2519.01
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Milo Bloom »

2355.25
A goal without a plan is just a wish - Herm Edwards
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gffisher »

2451.52
b42
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by b42 »

2165.48
runner3081
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by runner3081 »

1984.23
stockfuturist
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by stockfuturist »

2700.00
Fishing4fun
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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2473.13
DCChak
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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2515.00
MuchMoore
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MuchMoore »

2,643.59
Raunholt
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Raunholt »

2500.01
LateStarter1975
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LateStarter1975 »

2283.77
Debt is dangerous...simple is beautiful
birdwatcher10
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by birdwatcher10 »

2406.89
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dale_G »

1989.12
Volatility is my friend
s2cem
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by s2cem »

2009.41
CMHBuckeye
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by CMHBuckeye »

2622.36
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by czeckers »

$1888.88
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jriding »

2168.47
chicagoan23
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by chicagoan23 »

Ending value: 2557.57
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" | | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JerryK »

2451.22
mister37
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mister37 »

2337.37
Signature loading in 3,2,1.......
WendyW
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by WendyW »

2478.78
amitb00
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by amitb00 »

2540.20
mortalsonofmortal
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mortalsonofmortal »

My guess is 2434
timmydink
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by timmydink »

2078.17
amarone
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by amarone »

2254.4
moneyball
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by moneyball »

2383.5
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Tortoise Banker »

2337 :)
The winning strategy is simple, but not easy...
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boo-yah
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by boo-yah »

2567.93
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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

BarryZuckerkorn wrote:20592.62
BarryZuckerkorn - did you mean to guess 20,592.62?
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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

madbrain wrote:36,000
madbrain - did you mean to guess 36,000?
Dicast
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dicast »

2610.50
GreedHateJealousy
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by GreedHateJealousy »

2402.84
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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

Thanks The Dan for posting the graph earlier.
Here is a graph showing guesses through page 10, excluding BarryZuckerkorn (20592.62) and madbrain (36,000).

Image
Last edited by rarvesen on Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JamalJones
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JamalJones »

1816.6
TSP + Vanguard Roth IRA + Vanguard Taxable: 80% equities / 20% bonds | "I don't shine shoes, I don’t tape ankles, I don't cut checks - straight cash homie!!" --R. Moss
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen »

2042.37
rustymutt
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rustymutt »

2092.00
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.
Durzo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Durzo »

2462.95
marvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by marvesen »

2446.21
karvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by karvesen »

2474.97
shipwreck
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by shipwreck »

2519.13
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McGilicutty
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by McGilicutty »

3013.39
lazydavid
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by lazydavid »

2339.85
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