2017 hedge fund contest

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:14 pm

LadyGeek and MudPuppy - I fixed the above issues and hopefully formatted the spreadsheet to be a bit easier to read / view.

1. SENA was a typo (should have been SENEA).

2. There were three stocks where the historical data lookup used for the "Open" price (1/6/17 close) did not agree with the current market price (which today should be exactly the same). I checked the market data, corrected the inaccurate opening values (indicated in blue), and now everyone is starting at 0.00%. They were off by at most $0.02.

3. I added a second page to the spreadsheet ("backup") which has the hard copy of the opening values as of today, just in case Google stops wanting to tell us those, a stock gets merged and ceases to exist, etc. The "contest" page is the official and nicely formatted one.

Best of luck to everyone!

2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:09 am

Thanks! The spreadsheet will rank the funds by selecting Column C (Fund % return), right-click --> Sort sheet Z --> A. This is a temporary filter for your viewing only.

You can also sort by fund name (Column A) or manager (Column B).

The spreadsheet owner can set a permanent filter, if desired.
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Gropes & Ray
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Gropes & Ray » Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:51 am

Can we add VTHR as a competitor so that we can judge our performance relative to the index as well as relative to each other?

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hornet96
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by hornet96 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:19 pm

Gropes & Ray wrote:Can we add VTHR as a competitor so that we can judge our performance relative to the index as well as relative to each other?


Great idea. Maybe just add it to the top in its own box or something as a reference point when viewing the spreadsheet?

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:24 pm

The 2016 hedge fund contest used VTI (Total stock market), but maybe that wasn't the right fund.

VTHR is Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF (VTHR), but perhaps we should track the index directly?

- Russell 3000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUA)

Update: Google Finance works fine with ticker: INDEXRUSSELL:RUA

From previous years, the benchmark was named "I don't know and I don't care (Benchmark)".
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amp
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by amp » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:46 pm

By my count 15 funds shorted Sears Holdings (SHLD). With 64 entries, that's nearly a one out of every four! One participant bucked the trend and picked it on the long side. The most common long stock is ExxonMobil (XOM) with four people choosing it.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by trueblueky » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:18 pm

amp wrote:By my count 15 funds shorted Sears Holdings (SHLD). With 64 entries, that's nearly a one out of every four! One participant bucked the trend and picked it on the long side. The most common long stock is ExxonMobil (XOM) with four people choosing it.

You could start a new contest -- what day will SHLD announce bankruptcy?
Because I think the chance of that happening in 2017 is way more than 15/64.

Their management has been strategically stupid IMO (full disclosure: I probably own a piece of the company. It's in TSM and C Fund, right? ). They closed their catalogue sales just in time for the internet revolution, then were behind in creating web sales. Now they're selling off Craftsman to keep the stores open. Stupid! Close the stores and keep Craftsman and Kenmore brands.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:16 pm

LadyGeek wrote:The spreadsheet owner can set a permanent filter, if desired.

I believe I have fixed the spreadsheet to update the list to be sorted by returns automatically, with the current winner on top. Presently that's GoldenFinch with her auspicious pick of Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), up 25% today on good drug news.

Also, I added the canonical VTI, Vanguard Total Market ETF, as the benchmark fund ("I don't know and I don't care"). It is down less than 1% currently.

You can judge for yourself if a 100% long equity market benchmark is appropriate for your fund based on how your performance goes. If you beat the benchmark, great! If not, and you are still up for the year, tout your diversification and hedging to produce solid and uncorrelated absolute returns for those seeking safety from the risky equity markets. However, if you fail to beat the market and have currently negative absolute performance, it's likely another benchmark was more appropriate and that you're beating that one instead ;). For example, Tanelorn Capital is currently underperforming the market by about 1.5%. However, given our short smallcap bias, we prefer to think of ourselves benchmarked against the funds who are short... to pick a completely random small cap... Enteromedics (ETRM, up 1500% or so in the past week), and we are handily outperforming them by about 1498% :).

2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads
Last edited by Tanelorn on Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:29 pm

You may want to save the spreadsheet differently, as the default view goes to the "data" tab (not sorted).

honduranhurricane is missing the fund name (username instead of the fund name) in all the tabs.

Repeating here for convenience: 2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads
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FinancialDave
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:40 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
LadyGeek wrote:The spreadsheet owner can set a permanent filter, if desired.

I believe I have fixed the spreadsheet to update the list to be sorted by returns automatically, with the current winner on top. Presently that's GoldenFinch with his auspicious pick of Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), up 25% today on good drug news.

Also, I added the canonical VTI, Vanguard Total Market ETF, as the benchmark fund ("I don't know and I don't care"). It is down less than 1% currently.

You can judge for yourself if a 100% long equity market benchmark is appropriate for your fund based on how your performance goes. If you beat the benchmark, great! If not, and you are still up for the year, tout your diversification and hedging to produce solid and uncorrelated absolute returns for those seeking safety from the risky equity markets. However, if you fail to beat the market and have currently negative absolute performance, it's likely another benchmark was more appropriate and that you're beating that one instead ;). For example, Tanelorn Capital is currently underperforming the market by about 1.5%. However, given our short smallcap bias, we prefer to think of ourselves benchmarked against the funds who are short... to pick a completely random small cap... Enteromedics (ETRM, up 1500% or so in the past week), and we are handily outperform them by about 1498% :).

2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads


Everytime I call it up the loser is on top. I can sort it, go out, but next time I come in it has the negative numbers on top.

It is sorted now, but on A-Z instead of Z-A.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:45 pm

LadyGeek wrote:You may want to save the spreadsheet differently, as the default view goes to the "data" tab (not sorted).

honduranhurricane is missing the fund name (username instead of the fund name) in all the tabs.

Repeating here for convenience: 2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads

Thanks for the updates. Hmm, I'll keep checking it I guess. For me on a mobile, it comes up with the "contest" tab and correctly sorted high to low (and should dynamically update the sorting). The "data" tab is currently sorted the other way (low to high), but won't update so will become jumbled as time goes on.

Honduranhurricane did not name his fund, so it's just using his name.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:50 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
LadyGeek wrote:The spreadsheet owner can set a permanent filter, if desired.

I believe I have fixed the spreadsheet to update the list to be sorted by returns automatically, with the current winner on top. Presently that's GoldenFinch with his auspicious pick of Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), up 25% today on good drug news.


GoldenFinch is a she. :wink:

I'm really happy that my five minutes of research have paid off and that I made a good bet, er, I mean choice (at least so far).

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:08 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
LadyGeek wrote:You may want to save the spreadsheet differently, as the default view goes to the "data" tab (not sorted).

honduranhurricane is missing the fund name (username instead of the fund name) in all the tabs.

Repeating here for convenience: 2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads

Thanks for the updates. Hmm, I'll keep checking it I guess. For me on a mobile, it comes up with the "contest" tab and correctly sorted high to low (and should dynamically update the sorting). The "data" tab is currently sorted the other way (low to high), but won't update so will become jumbled as time goes on.

Honduranhurricane did not name his fund, so it's just using his name.


Ok, that seems to be the issue, the current link to the contest pulls up the Data tab, but if you click over to the Contest tab it is sorted correctly.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by dougger5 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:23 pm

Lately when attempting to access the google sheet, I'm told I need permission. Probably because I'm logged into Chrome with a particular ID.

Shall I PM someone with the email I used to request access? If so, whom?
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:49 pm

The spreadsheet is open to everyone. Try again using a new private browsing window (Ctrl+Shift+N), or a different browser like Firefox.
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by honduranhurricane » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:04 pm

oops, sorry about the faux pas...hmmm,,, 'gandalf or gollum'...

Thanks for all the work putting the spreadsheet together.

HH

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by dougger5 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:20 pm

LadyGeek wrote:The spreadsheet is open to everyone. Try again using a new private browsing window (Ctrl+Shift+N), or a different browser like Firefox.


Incognito did it, thanks :beer

Ooh...wish I hadn't looked now... :oops:
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:25 pm

Ok, I think it's fixed now so everyone should go to the sorted "contest" tab of the spreadsheet by default.
HH - you've got your fund name.
Congrats again to Ms. GoldenFinch on her astute selections.

If for some reason the links aren't behaving, you can try the html non-editable viewer I get when I look at the spreadsheet on my tablet. Perhaps that will work?

2017 Hedge Fund Contest Bogleheads
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LadyGeek
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:42 pm

That HTML alternative link is fast! You lose visibility into the formulas, but it's just fine for a quick status.

FYI - I passed your technique to the Canadian contest. Re: 2017 Hedge Fund Contest
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Mudpuppy » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:43 am

oldzey wrote:
zaboomafoozarg wrote:I think everyone should have to pick 3 longs and 3 shorts.


Agreed for the 2018 contest.

Just as an FYI, the contest did have a fixed number of longs and shorts a few years back. That rule can be a little constricting for those of us with fund themes (my fund was hard enough to build from musical inspiration with two longs and one short). Back then, we also could only chose from the S&P 500, which was also restricting.

I think it's more fun this way, and the point of this contest is to have fun. It's not like there's anything to be gained in winning (or losing) other than bragging rights. It's kind of like "Whose Line Is It Anyway"... everything is made up and the points don't matter.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by FinancialDave » Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:34 pm

By the way for people who use GoogleDocs you can just put this whole spreadsheet in your own "My Drive" location and then you can follow along whenever you want and build your own formulas to sort the file any way you want.

From the existing googledoc just select the File tab, then "Add to My Drive"

For example in "My Drive" copy I added the following formula in column AB; =COUNT(D2:AA2)/3

The purpose of which is to give me the number of stocks picked by each hedge fund. From that I can sort on the number of stocks picked to re-arrange the chart.

Dave
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Tanelorn
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:18 pm

Congratulations to our new leader - nmanieri. A Bogleheads newcomer, his Opulent Hammer Fund took the lead when one of his three long picks, Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI), reported promising clinical results today.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:25 pm

GoldenFinch is coming down off what was a nice lead. Darn pharmaceuticals!

:beer

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by nmanieri » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:58 pm

Tanelorn wrote:Congratulations to our new leader - nmanieri. A Bogleheads newcomer, his Opulent Hammer Fund took the lead when one of his three long picks, Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI), reported promising clinical results today.

HTML alternative link


Thanks for the shout out! I'm in the cancer research field and read their paper in Nature a couple of weeks ago, and when I saw they were a public company I almost bought their stock. But as a good Boglehead, I bought an index fund and will have to cheer on the company for Opulent Hammer's portfolio instead.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:33 pm

I thought it was interesting that in principle it should be just as easy to pick winning stocks as losing ones, and hence it should be as much an accomplishment statistically speaking to have a large negative return as a large positive one. After all, you could have been short your longs and long your shorts if you wanted instead.

The investors in two of this year's (to remain nameless) funds are probably not appreciating this, even though those large negative results are bigger than the top positive one so far. While it's a small sample and only a month in so far, the benchmark is up 1% and yet the average fund is doing worse than that - the benchmark is ranked 27/65 (beating almost 60% of the field) and the average fund return is worse than this too (our choices are negatively skewed, ie those who are down are down more than those who are up).

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by slapfish » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:18 am

slapfish wrote:Long-time reader, minimal poster here...thought I'd toss my hat in the ring with the launch of Snark Tank Investments, LLC:

Short:
EGRX
MNTA
SLCA

Long:
CRR
FLIR
LLNW



Hey guys,

I think my longs and my shorts got switched in the spreadsheet. Can you check and switch them back please? It'd help my performance out a little bit :happy

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Mudpuppy » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:23 am

Tanelorn wrote:I thought it was interesting that in principle it should be just as easy to pick winning stocks as losing ones, and hence it should be as much an accomplishment statistically speaking to have a large negative return as a large positive one. After all, you could have been short your longs and long your shorts if you wanted instead.

The race to last place has been a thing in hedge fund contests of years past. It's not like there are prizes on the line for this contest. All you win are "bragging rights", so why not brag about being in last place too?

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by k66 » Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:40 pm

Mudpuppy wrote:...so why not brag about being in last place too?


I do it whenever I can!
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by azanon » Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:58 pm

Dang I saw this too late. Would have gone with the PMURT Fund:

Long: RSX, EIS
Short: FXI, EWW
Market Neutral: SPY

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:10 am

This contest and it's predecessors are now the subject of a wiki article, see Bogleheads® contests.
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Mudpuppy » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:04 pm

Peculiar_Investor wrote:This contest and it's predecessors are now the subject of a wiki article, see Bogleheads® contests.

I don't know if the results of years prior to 2016 were preserved, but here are the links to the announcement threads:

2015: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=154240
2014: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=129187
2013: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=107561
2012: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=87856
2011: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=65059
2010: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=47147
2009: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=30367

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:27 pm

Mudpuppy wrote:
Peculiar_Investor wrote:This contest and it's predecessors are now the subject of a wiki article, see Bogleheads® contests.

I don't know if the results of years prior to 2016 were preserved...

Norbert archived the final results of the prior years (ie before 2016) on his site, which seem to still work for now:

http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2015-final.html
http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2014-final.html
http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2013-final.html
http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2012-final.html
http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2011-final.html
http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2010-final.html
http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh-2009-final.html

It would have been interesting to see what people picked back in 2008, but I think these specific stock picking contests began in 2009.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor » Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:42 pm

Thanks. I'd found Norbert's pages and with Mudpuppy's links have already updated the wiki page.
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:19 pm

Some minor bookkeeping -

slapfish - thanks for the correction. Your portfolio is now correct and you are up nicely so far.
azanon - interesting macro picks. If you enter next year, do remember that ETFs aren't eligible (only Russell stocks).

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:22 pm

It has not been a good week for Sears. The most popular short in the contest by a wide margin, SHLD stock reached a new all time low today of $7, down 50% over the past year's time (in a strong bull market no less) and down almost 25% in the three weeks since our contest began. Congratulations to our new leader, camper and his Death Knell Fund whose sole position is short Sears.

With apologies to John Donne, my meditations on their current difficulties -

Perchance he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for him; ... any company's death diminishes me, because I am a shareholder, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee, Eddie.

2017 Hedge Fund Results

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Wolfpacker » Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:02 pm

Tanelorn,
You shorted a stock (PIP) whose equity will be diluted by 87% from a dividend because you know that dividends are not counted in this contest. You are smart, but are you honorable? Does the end justify the means?

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Peculiar_Investor » Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:41 pm

Wolfpacker wrote:Does the end justify the means?

It's a hedge fund, so by definition I think you've got your answer. :happy
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by FinancialDave » Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:05 pm

Tanelorn wrote:I thought it was interesting that in principle it should be just as easy to pick winning stocks as losing ones, and hence it should be as much an accomplishment statistically speaking to have a large negative return as a large positive one. After all, you could have been short your longs and long your shorts if you wanted instead.

The investors in two of this year's (to remain nameless) funds are probably not appreciating this, even though those large negative results are bigger than the top positive one so far. While it's a small sample and only a month in so far, the benchmark is up 1% and yet the average fund is doing worse than that - the benchmark is ranked 27/65 (beating almost 60% of the field) and the average fund return is worse than this too (our choices are negatively skewed, ie those who are down are down more than those who are up).


There is one big problem with the idea of picking winners or losers and the large negative or positive returns - ONE side of that equation has a limit!
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:16 pm

New investors: Don't get confused that shorting a stock is the "opposite" of going long. "short" is a misnomer.

To learn this correctly, replace the word "short" with "borrow" - it's a whole 'nother animal. See the wiki: Short selling stock

Read the wiki article, then take a crack at FinancialDave's question.
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:50 pm

Wolfpacker wrote:Tanelorn,
You are smart, but are you honorable? Does the end justify the means?

Wolfpacker - Thank you for the complement; I like to think I am honorable as well. The rules have been the same every year since Norbert started this annual contest seven years ago, well known in advance to everyone, and hence should meet the classic definition of fairness.

As for the ends and the means, I don't presume to know Norbert's purpose in establishing this contest, aside from providing a distraction for the stock picking inclinations that might otherwise trouble the forum's members in a financially harmless way. It's possible over time these contests will show a lack of persistent performance among contestants and hence validate the indexing philosophy as a superior investing approach. It's possible it will show the opposite, ie that those willing to understand all the detailed rules of the markets and perform careful fundamental stock research should be running hedge funds. Time will tell, I guess.

Wolfpacker wrote:You shorted a stock (PIP) whose equity will be diluted by 87% from a dividend because you know that dividends are not counted in this contest.

A certain esteemed member has adopted a similar strategy in recent years, although the jury is still out on that approach. As for PIP, if that comes to pass (and the market reception for proposed bio defense mergers fares poorly this year), then as we like to say here at Tanelorn Capital, "that was lucky."

PS Are you sure you're in the right place, doing fundamental stock research like that? ;)

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:52 pm

FinancialDave wrote:
Tanelorn wrote:I thought it was interesting that in principle it should be just as easy to pick winning stocks as losing ones, and hence it should be as much an accomplishment statistically speaking to have a large negative return as a large positive one...

There is one big problem with the idea of picking winners or losers and the large negative or positive returns - ONE side of that equation has a limit!

True, shorts can only make 100% in this sort of contest while longs can make 1000%+ if you get lucky and pick the right stock. Alternatively, the longs can only lose 100% in a bankruptcy, while the shorts can lose 1000%+ in a big squeeze.

This asymmetry is less stark than it appears when you consider real world factors that aren't covered by the simple contest framework. For example, if your short goes up 50-100% against you and you have a fixed, fully invested amount of money invested in it, your broker will at some point issue a margin call and you'll be wiped out regardless of what happens later (even if it falls later on). On the bright side, you can also make more than 100% on your short in practice - in both cases, it just comes down to rebalancing. If you short a stock and it falls 50%, you now have 50% in cash and 50% in short stock so you could use the extra cash to short more. It's like investing on margin - if you borrow money and buy something that goes up, it's worth a lot more so now you can borrow more and keep betting it will go up. Both can go spectacularly poorly if the bets go the wrong way, however.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:58 pm

With Sears down 30%, the top 6 funds at this point all have SHLD as a short pick. This includes camper, the current leader, who has this as his only pick.

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On the downside, 3 of the 5 bottom funds were short WINS, a likely Chinese fraud with a $7B valuation and which garnered several reasoned short picks this year. Unfortunately for their investors, WINS stock spiked to nearly $500/share today, having started the contest at just under $200. While it closed off its highs around $350, these fund are down about 75% on this position and were down nearly 150%(!) at the recent peak. This is an example of the asymmetric risk discussed above.

GoldenFinch
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:25 pm

^^
Tanelorn, thank you for all the narration and info on these stocks. Makes all of this hedge fund contest stuff a bit more interesting. :beer

goblue100
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by goblue100 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:55 am

Tanelorn wrote:With Sears down 30%, the top 6 funds at this point all have SHLD as a short pick. This includes camper, the current leader, who has this as his only pick.

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On the downside, 3 of the 5 bottom funds were short WINS, a likely Chinese fraud with a $7B valuation and which garnered several reasoned short picks this year. Unfortunately for their investors, WINS stock spiked to nearly $500/share today, having started the contest at just under $200. While it closed off its highs around $350, these fund are down about 75% on this position and were down nearly 150%(!) at the recent peak. This is an example of the asymmetric risk discussed above.


I'm one of the lucky shorters of WINS. :shock: Can I double down on my short?
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:30 am

goblue100 wrote:I'm one of the lucky shorters of WINS. :shock: Can I double down on my short?

Good instincts, goblue100 - that was near the high in the mid $400s and by the end of the week WINS closed down over 25% to just under $300. Not much consolation for the funds who picked a short up 50% at this point and were not able to double down under the simple contest rules, but I suppose you can be glad you don't have to worry about margin calls or short buy-ins either. The company cryptically announced this week it had no comment on recent trading activity and that it was not in possession of material non-public information. Time will tell if this is a routine response to an exchange inquiry, or a prelude to something more.

On the short Sears front, many other top performers are still doing well; camper leads this crowd and is up 27% in second place overall with his pure SHLD short. However those funds gave back ground this week from nearly 40% highs as Friday saw Sears' announcement of considerable cost cutting and restructuring plans that hope to save $1B this year and raise liquidity. It may not save the troubled retail chain, but the stock rallied 25% from recent lows, since, if successful, these initiatives would forestall a bankruptcy in the near term.

Another big mover in recent weeks was CARBO Ceramics, CRR, a fracking supplier who beat earnings estimates two weeks ago, albeit by losing less than expected and not actually making money. Still, this was good for a 30% jump in their stock price and it has continued to rise since then to a 50% gain to date. Slapfish was the only one out of our contestants to see the value in this smallcap firm. Snark Tank investors, however, are up only 7% for the year as other investments such as a short hedge in the larger related US Silica (SLCA) has slightly detracted from performance. Still, with the market up only 2% for the year so far, they have no complaints and are beating the index by 5% (before fees).

Lastly, as Wolfpacker astutely observed a few weeks back, Tanelorn was poised to take the lead as his sole short pick, PIP, planned to pay a giant 90% dividend (dividends are not counted per the contest rules). That did indeed come to pass this week, and his Better Lucky Than Good fund is now in first place with about a 65% return. The efficient market experts among you are invited to consider why he is not up 90% at this point instead. He is wondering that himself ;).

goblue100
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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by goblue100 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:16 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
goblue100 wrote:I'm one of the lucky shorters of WINS. :shock: Can I double down on my short?

Good instincts, goblue100 - that was near the high in the mid $400s and by the end of the week WINS closed down over 25% to just under $300. Not much consolation for the funds who picked a short up 50% at this point and were not able to double down under the simple contest rules, but I suppose you can be glad you don't have to worry about margin calls or short buy-ins either. The company cryptically announced this week it had no comment on recent trading activity and that it was not in possession of material non-public information. Time will tell if this is a routine response to an exchange inquiry, or a prelude to something more.


Thanks. I'm pretty sure this WINS bubble, and this truly feels like a bubble, will pop before the end of the year.
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:26 pm

Congrats to b42's Ryzen fund, which vaulted into second place this week. Their sole position, long the chipmaker AMD, notched another 10-15% in gains this week as speculation mounted and rumors flew about their new CPUs and GPUs to be profiled this weekend at a tech conference. Ryzen investors are up 25% year to date.

Sears bears have paired their gains this week as Sears' CEO Eddie Lampert announced more layoffs and store closings on the back of falling same store sales for Q4'16 in an effort to stem rising losses. Plans seem to be in the works for additional stores to be closed, as well as real estate holdings to be monetized either as outright sales or via a sale-and-lease-back arrangement (where they will continue to operate, but pay rent to the new owner and pocket the sale price towards operations). As a bankruptcy scenario is looking less likely, Sears shares are now only down 19% for the year, putting camper in 3rd place. SHLD had been down over 40% at one point.

On a procedural note, Google Finance isn't perfect at providing quotes, so if you happen to notice something amiss, please post. For example, I was looking at Jacobs Engineering (JEC), a staid scientific consulting and construction firm, which appeared to have doubled recently and launched dougger5's Rose Capital fund into the top 5 in the standings. Unfortunately, the Rose Capital's auditors determined this was all a big misunderstanding, of course no one was at fault, and their fund's initial purchase price for the stock was $57.98, not $28.99 as previously reported (as provided by Google now; exactly half of the correct historical value and the value Google reported at the time). As of today's close, JEC's price of $56.03 is therefore a loss of 3% on that position rather than a 93% gain. Oops - I'll update the spreadsheet shortly.

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by dougger5 » Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:57 am

Tanelorn wrote:As of today's close, JEC's price of $56.03 is therefore a loss of 3% on that position rather than a 93% gain. Oops - I'll update the spreadsheet shortly.


Holy emotional roller coaster Batman!

This hedge fund business is not for the faint of heart :shock:
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:44 pm

The Opulent Hammer fund has shown itself to be more consistent than the "easy money" Sears short crowd, reclaiming 2nd place on continued strength in nmanieri's prescient INFI drug pick, up 26% overall and over 100% on that position alone.

LadyGeek's Ladies First fund isn't in first yet, but has joined the top ranks recently and stands in 4th place (behind nmanieri and b42, mentioned previously). Her sole long pick, Builders FirstSource (BLDR), a midcap home builder and construction firm, is now up 34% on continued strength and recent good earnings. Her sole short pick, First Solar (FLSR), a midcap solar energy company, is modestly in the green as well, their stock being down 3% year to date. Ladies First investors have a respectable overall return of 19% currently.

On the downside watch, Seadrill Limited (SDRL), an indebted offshore oil services firm, is down nearly 2/3 from the start of the contest, with the stock crashing in recent weeks when the management suggested that bankruptcy might be necessary given their current liquidity and commodity prices. NeXtGen Partners' investors have found themselves on the wrong side of this situation (among others), and are current down 14% for the year on their investment.

A popular short, Sears stock rallied strongly this past week as Q4 earnings proved to be less terrible than expected and the cost cutting measures appear to be helping. SHLD closed this week at $9.54 and is actually up +3% from the start of the contest, showing huge volatility given it was down over 40% at one point earlier. As a reminder, for those inclined to time the market in their fund holdings, you may "cash out" any specific position and lock in the next available market closing price - just post your request here ("I would like to close my position in stock XXX for my fund YYY").

current standings - 2017 hedge fund contest

Housekeeping:
The JEC Google price error mentioned above has been fixed. Synergy Resources, a stock held by two funds, recently changed their name to SRC Energy, and the ticker changed from SYRG->SRCI. Both changes are reflected in blue on the data page.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Post by Mudpuppy » Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:06 pm

Somewhat surprised to see that my musically inspired choices have risen to 5th place overall.

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