Expected returns 2017-2047

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SpartanBull
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Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby SpartanBull » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:07 pm

Hello,
So well all know that we cannot predict returns. That being said, this is just for fun. I'm curious what your "prediction" is for EQUITY returns over the next 30 years for Total Stock Market.You can say nominal or Real, but just specify if you are doing that. For the purpose of this, I'm curious to hear three predictions.
1) Bad- A prediction for "poor" returns, within reason. Please exclude a doomsday scenario of the US being wiped of the planet, unless you genuinely believe that will happen. This is meant for "below expectations", not a full on nightmare.
2) OK- This is basically your prediction.
3) Good- This is basically "above expectations". You planned for less than this, and your pleasantly surprised. Whatever that means to you.
The purpose of this is that I'm just curious to get a general idea of what most people would consider to be "good" returns. What would be "bad". What do you actually think it will be? (I know all of our predictions will likely be wrong). I would like to politely request that people refrain from responding to let me know that "nobody knows" or "if we knew we'd all be rich", etc. I totally agree with those sentiments. My only purpose here is to gauge peoples general expectations, but I'm fully aware how little those predictions mean. I find it interesting that one persons "bad" prediction might be a good one for someone else, etc. I'll start with mine, using "Real" Return.
1) Bad- 2% Real
2) OK- 4% Real
3) Good 6% Real
Very curious to hear other peoples thoughts. Thanks!

FillorKill
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby FillorKill » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:16 pm

0) Atrocious: Neg Real
1) Bad: 0% Real
2) OK: 2% Real
3) Good: 4% Real
4) Spectacular: 6% Real

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:41 pm

Real returns from today, or real returns continually investing?

At the US market's current valuation, I'd rate the expected 30-year returns as follows:

Bad - 0% real
OK - 2% real
Great - 4% real

If someone was continually investing over the next 30 years, I'd expect these returns to be a little higher.
Last edited by zaboomafoozarg on Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Theoretical
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby Theoretical » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:43 pm

Bad: Japan for a foreign investor - negative real

Ok: 3% real

Awesome: 6% real

SpartanBull
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby SpartanBull » Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:28 pm

zaboomafoozarg wrote:Real returns from today, or real returns continually investing?

At the US market's current valuation, I'd rate the expected 30-year returns as follows:

Bad - 0% real
OK - 2% real
Great - 4% real

If someone was continually investing over the next 30 years, I'd expect these returns to be a little higher.


I'm curious what you mean by that? So if someone was continually investing, the return would be higher. Is this your way of saying that there will be poor returns early on, and DCA of continually investing will do better due to better performance later on in the 30 year period? Just trying to see if I'm understanding that correctly.

Rodc
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby Rodc » Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:38 pm

SpartanBull wrote:
zaboomafoozarg wrote:Real returns from today, or real returns continually investing?

At the US market's current valuation, I'd rate the expected 30-year returns as follows:

Bad - 0% real
OK - 2% real
Great - 4% real

If someone was continually investing over the next 30 years, I'd expect these returns to be a little higher.


I'm curious what you mean by that? So if someone was continually investing, the return would be higher. Is this your way of saying that there will be poor returns early on, and DCA of continually investing will do better due to better performance later on in the 30 year period? Just trying to see if I'm understanding that correctly.


All we need is one market crash to reset valuations and from that point onward new money will have potentially much different valuation driven return estimates.

Market crashes happen every few years, or at least significant down turns.

This too shall pass.

If you are starting now or fairly early in accumulation today's valuations are not going to drive your lifetime returns.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby zaboomafoozarg » Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:07 pm

SpartanBull wrote:I'm curious what you mean by that? So if someone was continually investing, the return would be higher. Is this your way of saying that there will be poor returns early on, and DCA of continually investing will do better due to better performance later on in the 30 year period? Just trying to see if I'm understanding that correctly.


That's correct. My best guess is that returns on US stocks in the next 10 years are going to be terrible, but after that we might have a shot at some decent returns.

But it is just a guess after all, and I'd be very happy if returns exceeded my pessimistic expectations.

emoore
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby emoore » Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:13 pm

There is a lot of pessimism on this site. I plan for 5% real and have achieved that the last 7 years. Historical for my AA is 7% real so I think I'll be good.

Goal33
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby Goal33 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:49 pm

Bad: -1% real
Ok: 0% real
Good: 1% real
Spectacular: 2% real

I am just trying to keep up with inflation in the most tax efficient manner possible.

AlohaJoe
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby AlohaJoe » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:13 pm

For a 50/50 portfolio in the US, the only time real returns over a 30-year period have been under 2% was in 1890-1919. And that was entirely caused by the 17% inflation in 1899. If inflation has been merely "normal" that year, then you would have finished above 2%.

The same portfolio in the UK would have fared only marginally worse: 2 periods caused by WW1 and 2 periods caused by WW2. So 4 times out of 100. In both cases the bad performance was caused by "safe" bonds. Americans don't really have any concept of the danger bonds have posed in the most of the rest of the world. As an example British investors saw bonds drop -17% in 1915; -13% in 1916; -15% in 1917; -11% in 1918; flat in 1919; and -11% in 1920. If you had bonds back then would have seen your bond portfolio drop 50% in the space of a few years.

bigred77
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby bigred77 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:24 pm

Goal33 wrote:Bad: -1% real
Ok: 0% real
Good: 1% real
Spectacular: 2% real

I am just trying to keep up with inflation in the most tax efficient manner possible.


You are aware that your prediction for "spectacular" returns is worse than 95% of observed 30 year periods? That's... pessimistic to say the least...


OP,

My guess (in real terms):

Low-3%
Good-5%
Spectacular-8%

In all honesty, if my true belief/expectation was as pessimistic as some of you guys I wouldn't even invest (ok, I'd still save and invest maybe 10% of salary), I'd just live it up today and plan to "subsist" when I could no longer work... sheesh...

walletless
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby walletless » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:45 pm

Bad 0% real
OK 2% real
Good 4% real
Great 5+% real

SpartanBull
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby SpartanBull » Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:02 am

Goal33 wrote:Bad: -1% real
Ok: 0% real
Good: 1% real
Spectacular: 2% real

I am just trying to keep up with inflation in the most tax efficient manner possible.


These responses are just silly. Even if one of those numbers turns out to correct, They wont have been OK, good, or spectacular by any stretch of the imagination. I second that I would look for other means of capital appreciation if 2% real were "spectacular". Not saying these numbers aren't perfectly possible...but just confused by the words you associated with the numbers.

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sperry8
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby sperry8 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:10 am

Here is a great link to show historical 30 year rolling returns:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... er-coaster?

Here is the 30 yr graph from that link
Image

The worst 30 year period was just shy of 2% which included the Great Depression.
The best was just over 11% which included the bounce after the Great Depression.
I'd say those two are outliers unlikely to repeat themselves over the next 30 years.

Otherwise returns were between 4 & 9%.

So I'd say:

Bad - 4%
OK - 5.5%
Good - 7.5%
Spectacular - 9%

I don't see any reason it's different this time.
Certainty is a requirement of ignorance. | Humbling Contest results: | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

emoore
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby emoore » Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:15 am

sperry8 wrote:Here is a great link to show historical 30 year rolling returns:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... er-coaster?

Here is the 30 yr graph from that link
Image

The worst 30 year period was just shy of 2% which included the Great Depression.
The best was just over 11% which included the bounce after the Great Depression.
I'd say those two are outliers unlikely to repeat themselves over the next 30 years.

Otherwise returns were between 4 & 9%.

So I'd say:

Bad - 4%
OK - 5.5%
Good - 7.5%
Spectacular - 9%

I don't see any reason it's different this time.


+1

Goal33
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby Goal33 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:01 am

bigred77 wrote:
Goal33 wrote:Bad: -1% real
Ok: 0% real
Good: 1% real
Spectacular: 2% real

I am just trying to keep up with inflation in the most tax efficient manner possible.


You are aware that your prediction for "spectacular" returns is worse than 95% of observed 30 year periods? That's... pessimistic to say the least...


OP,

My guess (in real terms):

Low-3%
Good-5%
Spectacular-8%

In all honesty, if my true belief/expectation was as pessimistic as some of you guys I wouldn't even invest (ok, I'd still save and invest maybe 10% of salary), I'd just live it up today and plan to "subsist" when I could no longer work... sheesh...



Well, I hope I'm wrong. If so, I'll achieve financial freedom at a young age!

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whodidntante
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby whodidntante » Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:10 am

sperry8 wrote:Here is a great link to show historical 30 year rolling returns:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... er-coaster?

Here is the 30 yr graph from that link
Image

The worst 30 year period was just shy of 2% which included the Great Depression.
The best was just over 11% which included the bounce after the Great Depression.
I'd say those two are outliers unlikely to repeat themselves over the next 30 years.

Otherwise returns were between 4 & 9%.

So I'd say:

Bad - 4%
OK - 5.5%
Good - 7.5%
Spectacular - 9%

I don't see any reason it's different this time.


This is interesting but not predictive. Since 1870 the US went from an emerging market to the world's #1 economy with the most trusted and desirable fiat currency. It would be quite the feat to echo such a transformation.

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sperry8
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby sperry8 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:11 am

Goal33 wrote:
bigred77 wrote:
Goal33 wrote:Bad: -1% real
Ok: 0% real
Good: 1% real
Spectacular: 2% real

I am just trying to keep up with inflation in the most tax efficient manner possible.


You are aware that your prediction for "spectacular" returns is worse than 95% of observed 30 year periods? That's... pessimistic to say the least...


OP,

My guess (in real terms):

Low-3%
Good-5%
Spectacular-8%

In all honesty, if my true belief/expectation was as pessimistic as some of you guys I wouldn't even invest (ok, I'd still save and invest maybe 10% of salary), I'd just live it up today and plan to "subsist" when I could no longer work... sheesh...



Well, I hope I'm wrong. If so, I'll achieve financial freedom at a young age!


Hope is not an investing strategy. Do you invest based on your current estimates? Your current 30 yr doom/gloom scenario (which has never happened in the US) may ultimately steer you into some poor investment choices from which you will not be able to recover should your estimate not materialize.

I mean for your spectacular 2% estimate to come to fruition you must expect a 2nd Great Depression is coming in the next 30 years. That is the only 30 year rolling period that culminated in returns of under 2%. That occurred because during the Great Depression stocks dropped almost 90% during and took 11 years to recover even with dividends reinvested. For the remainder of your estimates to come true it means you are expecting or planning for something worse than this 90% drop.

If one thinks that is going to occur, they would be almost all cash/CDs. Are you? Because as I said above, should that 2nd Great Depression (or worse) not materialize you will not be able to recover (your opportunity cost is too great).

If these are your actual estimates of what you think will occur I suggest you expand your knowledge base by reading a few books (Bogleheads has a nice list of recommendations) and also expand the news you receive. Some newsletters are doom/gloom and instill fear but others are not and it is important to get information from all sides so you can make an informed decision. Beliefs like this will have you losing a lot of returns over the years should they not come to fruition.

If you are however invested in stocks at a decent rate - then you obviously do not believe the returns you state. Because one does not invest in stocks if they believe a 2nd Great Depression is forthcoming.
Certainty is a requirement of ignorance. | Humbling Contest results: | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

Goal33
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby Goal33 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:21 am

sperry8 wrote:
Goal33 wrote:
bigred77 wrote:
Goal33 wrote:Bad: -1% real
Ok: 0% real
Good: 1% real
Spectacular: 2% real

I am just trying to keep up with inflation in the most tax efficient manner possible.


You are aware that your prediction for "spectacular" returns is worse than 95% of observed 30 year periods? That's... pessimistic to say the least...


OP,

My guess (in real terms):

Low-3%
Good-5%
Spectacular-8%

In all honesty, if my true belief/expectation was as pessimistic as some of you guys I wouldn't even invest (ok, I'd still save and invest maybe 10% of salary), I'd just live it up today and plan to "subsist" when I could no longer work... sheesh...



Well, I hope I'm wrong. If so, I'll achieve financial freedom at a young age!


Hope is not an investing strategy. Do you invest based on your current estimates? Your current 30 yr doom/gloom scenario (which has never happened in the US) may ultimately steer you into some poor investment choices from which you will not be able to recover should your estimate not materialize.

I mean for your spectacular 2% estimate to come to fruition you must expect a 2nd Great Depression is coming in the next 30 years. That is the only 30 year rolling period that culminated in returns of under 2%. That occurred because during the Great Depression stocks dropped almost 90% during and took 11 years to recover even with dividends reinvested. For the remainder of your estimates to come true it means you are expecting or planning for something worse than this 90% drop.

If one thinks that is going to occur, they would be almost all cash/CDs. Are you? Because as I said above, should that 2nd Great Depression (or worse) not materialize you will not be able to recover (your opportunity cost is too great).

If these are your actual estimates of what you think will occur I suggest you expand your knowledge base by reading a few books (Bogleheads has a nice list of recommendations) and also expand the news you receive. Some newsletters are doom/gloom and instill fear but others are not and it is important to get information from all sides so you can make an informed decision. Beliefs like this will have you losing a lot of returns over the years should they not come to fruition.

If you are however invested in stocks at a decent rate - then you obviously do not believe the returns you state. Because one does not invest in stocks if they believe a 2nd Great Depression is forthcoming.


Why would I be all in CDs and cash? I am providing estimates in terms of real returns. I don't expect CDs to even keep up with inflation whereas my pessimistic expectations allow me to keep up with inflation with some gravy on top. My investment strategy is approximately the same as the Vanguard Target Date 2060 -- and I'm 25. I don't see how that could be misguided even with my expectation of real returns.

I try to control what I can, which means I am saving over 50% of my gross income. If returns are as you are expecting, then I will have a surprise early retirement.

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sperry8
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby sperry8 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 1:23 am

whodidntante wrote:
sperry8 wrote:Here is a great link to show historical 30 year rolling returns:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... er-coaster?

Here is the 30 yr graph from that link
Image

The worst 30 year period was just shy of 2% which included the Great Depression.
The best was just over 11% which included the bounce after the Great Depression.
I'd say those two are outliers unlikely to repeat themselves over the next 30 years.

Otherwise returns were between 4 & 9%.

So I'd say:

Bad - 4%
OK - 5.5%
Good - 7.5%
Spectacular - 9%

I don't see any reason it's different this time.


This is interesting but not predictive. Since 1870 the US went from an emerging market to the world's #1 economy with the most trusted and desirable fiat currency. It would be quite the feat to echo such a transformation.


Correct, the past is not predictive. And yet we can learn from it. To dismiss it entirely would be as unhelpful as assuming the past is predictive as the future.

As the graph depicts rather than achieving 10-11% average returns the stock market has come down in recent decades producing less. That is why my personal guess is between 5.5-7.5% for equities (which is down from the past). While the past is not predictive I still believe the US will retain the most desired fiat currency over the next 30 years. As well with globalization there are still a lot of earnings for companies going forward. Not to mention new technologies that I cannot even fathom.

As Warren Buffett stated in his latest annual report; "For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America's golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs."

I'll stick with my estimates.
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JoMoney
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby JoMoney » Thu Dec 29, 2016 3:51 am

Real (inflation adjusted) returns on U.S. stocks for the past 90+ years was just under a 7% CAGR, for the past 30 year period it was a bit over 7%, there have been some 30 year periods that were rough especially with regards to inflation. There have been thirty year periods since 1925 as low as in the 4% range, and some in the 10%, averaged out it would be about 7%.
In his book "Stocks For The Long Run" Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel calculates a 6.6% real CAGR since 1802.
Jeremy Siegel in Stocks For The Long Run wrote:The long-term stability of stock returns has persisted despite the dramatic changes that have taken place in our society during the last two centuries ... Yet despite mammoth changes in the basic factors generating wealth for shareholders, equity returns have shown an astounding stability. But stability in the long-run returns of stocks in no way guarantees stability in the short-run ...

There are no promises or guarantees when it comes to stocks. Having a good "long-run" average doesn't change the devastating personal impact losing half your wealth in a single year might cause.... but if I was going to hazard a guess over some future 30 year period... something like 6-7% seems to be as good a guess as any.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

mac808
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby mac808 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 7:19 am

Keep in mind that if we have 10 years of 3% real returns then the majority of pension funds are insolvent (without substantial benefit cuts), with serious implications for millions of our peers and the economy. By low fee disciplined investing you should be in a relatively stronger position than most others no matter what the future holds.

MarkVH0518
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby MarkVH0518 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:00 am

whodidntante wrote:
sperry8 wrote:Here is a great link to show historical 30 year rolling returns:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... er-coaster?

Here is the 30 yr graph from that link
Image

The worst 30 year period was just shy of 2% which included the Great Depression.
The best was just over 11% which included the bounce after the Great Depression.
I'd say those two are outliers unlikely to repeat themselves over the next 30 years.

Otherwise returns were between 4 & 9%.

So I'd say:

Bad - 4%
OK - 5.5%
Good - 7.5%
Spectacular - 9%

I don't see any reason it's different this time.


This is interesting but not predictive. Since 1870 the US went from an emerging market to the world's #1 economy with the most trusted and desirable fiat currency. It would be quite the feat to echo such a transformation.


Is there any similar graph of a history of the British stock market? The Brits would be a concrete example of a #1 economy with the most trusted and desirable fiat currency moving to a second-rate, yet still well-regarded market. That would seem to be a highly likely scenario for America in nearish future.

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sperry8
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby sperry8 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:20 am

MarkVH0518 wrote:
whodidntante wrote:
sperry8 wrote:Here is a great link to show historical 30 year rolling returns:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho ... er-coaster?

Here is the 30 yr graph from that link
Image

The worst 30 year period was just shy of 2% which included the Great Depression.
The best was just over 11% which included the bounce after the Great Depression.
I'd say those two are outliers unlikely to repeat themselves over the next 30 years.

Otherwise returns were between 4 & 9%.

So I'd say:

Bad - 4%
OK - 5.5%
Good - 7.5%
Spectacular - 9%

I don't see any reason it's different this time.


This is interesting but not predictive. Since 1870 the US went from an emerging market to the world's #1 economy with the most trusted and desirable fiat currency. It would be quite the feat to echo such a transformation.


Is there any similar graph of a history of the British stock market? The Brits would be a concrete example of a #1 economy with the most trusted and desirable fiat currency moving to a second-rate, yet still well-regarded market. That would seem to be a highly likely scenario for America in nearish future.


Since 1900 the UK returned to within 1 decimal place of the US in equity returns. This data is shown in the book Triumph of the Optimists by Princeton Press. A google search will allow you to see pages 48 & 49 to corroborate this info.

That said - I disagree with the suggestion the US is now like the UK. We are quite different. Plus we have not lost our reserve currency yet (and no one is even close to taking it from us). In fact some feel the second most widely used currency (the Euro) is more likely to break up than to replace the USD. Not that this prediction seems to matter as the UK equity returns closely mirrored the US even during its decline.

Looking at the book excerpt you can even see how most developed countries returns were pretty darn good over the past hundred years. Equities performed quite positively over long periods. Once again, I don't see why 2017-2047 will be any different.
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AlohaJoe
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby AlohaJoe » Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:42 am

MarkVH0518 wrote:Is there any similar graph of a history of the British stock market?


Image

The first year is 1930, which means it is the returns for 1900-1930.

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sperry8
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby sperry8 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:54 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
MarkVH0518 wrote:Is there any similar graph of a history of the British stock market?


Image

The first year is 1930, which means it is the returns for 1900-1930.


Nice find. Seems to me just under 6% is the UK return average (using eyes to glance, not #'s since they aren't provided). The Triumph of the Optimists book claims 5.8% real returns for the UK (nominal returns within 1 decimal point to the US). Slide 4 from the link below shows the 5.8% real number they quote. US was 6.7% real in comparison (slide 2).

Also found some graphs from that book: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/trium ... -by-2000-1
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MI_bogle
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby MI_bogle » Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:44 am

emoore wrote:There is a lot of pessimism on this site. I plan for 5% real and have achieved that the last 7 years. Historical for my AA is 7% real so I think I'll be good.


I am not sure that achieving 5% real over the duration of a massive bull market is any reason for optimism...

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siamond
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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby siamond » Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:12 am

In the past, valuations (e.g. PE10) had a surprisingly significant impact on the following 30 years of return. Or let's say strong correlation and other statistical metrics. Sadly, said valuations appear quite high nowadays (PE10=27.8 today). Yes, they will probably drop a good deal, and then the balance will probably swing the other way, but the starting point should still reverberate for decades to come.

If one would believe the 1/PE[10] model, then we get around 3.5% nowadays for TSM (i.e. US Total Stock Market). 30 years is a long time though, some return to the mean should counteract the starting valuation over time. So I would answer the OP's question as:
1) Bad - 3% Real
2) OK - 4% Real
3) Good - 5% Real

And then I would suggest that being more balanced between (US) domestic and (ex US) international really seems in order...

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Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby MarkVH0518 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 4:07 pm

sperry8 wrote:
That said - I disagree with the suggestion the US is now like the UK. We are quite different. Plus we have not lost our reserve currency yet (and no one is even close to taking it from us). In fact some feel the second most widely used currency (the Euro) is more likely to break up than to replace the USD. Not that this prediction seems to matter as the UK equity returns closely mirrored the US even during its decline.



Thank you for the information on the UK market returns; I agree the returns on the UK market are very comforting.
As far as US not being like UK, in my opinion changes like the reserve currency of the world do not occur gradually - they occur in a relative flash.
No one will desire the new currency, whatever it is, until everyone wants it.
The kinds of events that spark the change will, more likely than not, be political. Recall that the USD became the reserve currency as a
result of a world war (or two). The new reserve currency will not be the Euro because the political factors that favor the Euro will also favor the USD.
Hence the Euro will never overtake the USD. Instead, I foresee the next reserve currency being the Chinese yuan.
However, I'm not predicting when and I am not betting any money on the transition.
Instead, I'm wishing the understand how much risk there is in staying with a US-focused investment strategy throughout any possible transition.
And as you state, it is comforting to consider the UK stock market as a historical model.

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Texas Radio
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:59 am

Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby Texas Radio » Thu Dec 29, 2016 5:36 pm

6%

I hope the market goes down so I can buy cheaper. Persistent accumulation is occurring regardless of price.
A portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you handle it the smaller it gets.

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FIREchief
Posts: 576
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:40 pm

Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Postby FIREchief » Thu Dec 29, 2016 6:58 pm

bad: 4%
okay: 6%
good: 8%

All real. Like the song says, "same as it ever was." :beer


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