Remember what it was like before the recession?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
bigred77
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by bigred77 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:54 pm

There is always some economic threat. There is always bad news. There are always bear market prognosticators. There is always some reason why "this time is different". There is always a "new normal".

All markets (financial, labor, real estate, etc.) continue to ebb and flow. Up and down. Financial markets usually go up given enough time.

If you work in any industry connected to oil and gas, 2008/9 was a heck of a lot better then now :mrgreen:

aj44
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by aj44 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:27 pm

Lots of memories of that era:

1. I remember talking with my Dad in 05/06 about how much of a bubble real estate was in and that I should sell my townhome that I had just purchased in 2002. I was too lazy to do so, and now I am selling it in January and still losing 50k. My wife lost 80k selling her house in 2012 and I have several friends that are still underwater today and others that walked away. I plan on renting going forward even though I could easily afford to buy again, neither of us desire to own real estate after getting scorched so bad. It isn't just us either, many of my generation feel the same way, at least a lot of people I know.

2. I knew several people that worked for countrywide, they were hired without much experience and were making a boatload of money for a couple years. I remember going to parties at their houses before the crash and the conversations always went to buying houses and how everyone could get rich flipping. They all lost their jobs in 2007 and the few I still know make nowhere near what they made then. They all had McMansions and I remember wondering how the heck they afforded it.... I found out later they couldn't and had exotic loans.

3. I worked for a company that was owned by private equity that also had a large stake in a mortgage company, it went from money was no object in 05/06 to tightening the screws to waves of layoffs, one got me in early 2009.

4. Right before the crash in early 2007 when I was 26 I had my personal finance "awakening", I started reading message boards, opened an ING Savings account and started really socking away money in my 401k, I had been saving in a 401k since 2001 but really only enough for the match. I only had about 40k in investments when the crash hit so nowhere near the skin in the game I have today.

5. Our net worth has taken off like a rocket since the crash and I have socked away a lot of money that has caught the stock market elevator up to today's valuations. Even with real estate being such a drag on our net worth we likely could never save another penny and then live off what we have already accumulated when it is time to retire.
Last edited by aj44 on Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Easy Rhino
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by Easy Rhino » Tue Dec 27, 2016 2:29 pm

If I recall correctly, all the 'smart money' was in real estate, emerging markets, and commodities. :oops:

pascal
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by pascal » Tue Dec 27, 2016 4:26 pm

KlangFool wrote:
HomerJ wrote:
My apologies, KlangFool... I know that you hold very strong opinions, but the definition of a recession is bigger than you.

And you are not being honest if you think the chance of getting laid off and/or finding a job has been exactly the same each and every year since 2000.
HomerJ,

1) I am not a statistic. I do not think. I experienced this. A person is either employed or unemployed. A person either find a job or not. X% unemployment has no meaning at an individual level.

2) I had been unemployed for more than a year a few times after 2000. Every employer that I worked with had quarterly and annual lay off. So, I have no idea about what do you mean about whether I am being honest? This was my experience.

3) My point is very simple. For some of us, nothing had changed since 2000. We had been in the same situation since 2000. Now, this may or may not apply to the rest of you. But, please do not discount our experience.

KlangFool

P.S.: This thread focused on what was it felt like before 2008/2009 aka recession. I am just stating my feeling that nothing had changed since 2000.
Yes X% unemployment has no meaning at an individual level but the agency that puts that number out is not putting it out for you or me. Their job is to analyze the economy and its growth. The claim that the economy is in a continuous recession since 2008 just because there is a risk that a group of people will get laid off is nonsensical.
"Never underestimate the ability of a bad situation to get worse...rapidly." Ninegrams

Dottie57
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 6:28 pm

pascal wrote:
KlangFool wrote:
HomerJ wrote:
My apologies, KlangFool... I know that you hold very strong opinions, but the definition of a recession is bigger than you.

And you are not being honest if you think the chance of getting laid off and/or finding a job has been exactly the same each and every year since 2000.
HomerJ,

1) I am not a statistic. I do not think. I experienced this. A person is either employed or unemployed. A person either find a job or not. X% unemployment has no meaning at an individual level.

2) I had been unemployed for more than a year a few times after 2000. Every employer that I worked with had quarterly and annual lay off. So, I have no idea about what do you mean about whether I am being honest? This was my experience.

3) My point is very simple. For some of us, nothing had changed since 2000. We had been in the same situation since 2000. Now, this may or may not apply to the rest of you. But, please do not discount our experience.

KlangFool

P.S.: This thread focused on what was it felt like before 2008/2009 aka recession. I am just stating my feeling that nothing had changed since 2000.
Yes X% unemployment has no meaning at an individual level but the agency that puts that number out is not putting it out for you or me. Their job is to analyze the economy and its growth. The claim that the economy is in a continuous recession since 2008 just because there is a risk that a group of people will get laid off is nonsensical.

I am sure those who haven't made a comeback don't feel the economy is so rosy. Kind of like a blind man describing. an elephant. Depends on where you are standing as to your description.

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MEA
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by MEA » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:48 pm

I remember discussing if housing was in a bubble with a coworker. Our discussion wasn't about if it was in a bubble, but what would happen when it popped. Would it take down the stock market? He said yes housing was too big a part of the economy and it would. I wasn't convinced of that. I thought there was about a 50 percent chance the stock market would survive without too much damage.

What we weren't discussing was the rise of the unregulated shadow banking system, and how it had worked its tentacles throughout the global financial system. Bubbles are common and thay usually don't damage the financial system. You lower rates a little and it's back to normal. It has been eight years and we still haven't been able to normalize interest rates and return to normal growth. This one was a doozy and no one saw it coming.
“Stay the course is the most important piece of advice I can give you.”-Bogle

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Pajamas
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by Pajamas » Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:05 pm

If you are referring to the 2008-9 financial crisis and real estate crash, there was plenty of discussion about a bubble starting well before the crash. People were talking about crazy housing prices but they kept going up anyway. There was a high turnover of apartments in NYC and there would be crowds at open houses. There were rumors in the financial sector that some of the banks were shaky and had made risky investments. When it all crashed, it was fairly slow-motion but far worse than I expected it to be by the time the worse was over. It is still not completely over as there are still some effects and distortions in the markets such as national companies renting houses they bought after the crash.

Some friends move across the country for work and I tried to convince them to rent for a year before buying to get a feel for their new town and to see if housing prices might moderate. There was a bit of a frenzy with more demand than supply and they felt like they had to go ahead and buy immediately or forever be locked out. They are still slightly underwater on their house.

Noticeable inflation was mostly in real estate. We haven't had anything near the inflation of the 1970s since then. In the 70s, people stockpiled basic goods like sugar when they were on sale because the price would go up and goods were a better store of value than the dollar. In raw uninflated dollar terms, imported cars like Mercedes Benz were appreciating instead of depreciating. Krugerrands and other gold coins were very popular as an investment and even as jewelry. Copper pennies met their end in 1982 due to that inflation.

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Lieutenant.Columbo
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by Lieutenant.Columbo » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:18 am

KlangFool wrote:The only time that I did not face annual or quarterly lay off at my employer was before 2000. So, there is no recovery for many of us. As far as I am concerned, we are still in a recession
might that continuing recession be sector-specific, KF?
Lt. Columbo: Well, what do you know. Here I am talking with some of the smartest people in the world, and I didn't even notice!

KlangFool
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by KlangFool » Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:03 am

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
KlangFool wrote:The only time that I did not face annual or quarterly lay off at my employer was before 2000. So, there is no recovery for many of us. As far as I am concerned, we are still in a recession
might that continuing recession be sector-specific, KF?
Lieutenant.Columbo,

1) Yes, it is sector specific.

2) To be precise, I am saying for some of us, the employment situation had remained the same since 2000. So, for some of us, nothing had changed. Please note that even if the company is doing well, they still have annual lay off. So, for salary workers like us, there is no difference whether the economy is or is not in recession.

KlangFool

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HomerJ
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:34 am

KlangFool wrote:To be precise, I am saying for some of us, the employment situation had remained the same since 2000. So, for some of us, nothing had changed. Please note that even if the company is doing well, they still have annual lay off. So, for salary workers like us, there is no difference whether the economy is or is not in recession.
When the economy is in recession, there is a LARGER chance of being laid-off, and it's harder to find a new job. When the economy is not in recession, one is less likely to be laid-off, and it's easier to find a new job.

So it absolutely does make a difference to salary workers like us if the economy is or is not in recession.

And if you don't like annual lay-offs, you can definitely find companies that actually have some clue how to hire good people, so that it's not necessary to implement an annual "10% rule" (which has fallen out of favor for good reasons - even GE has stopped doing it - it's not a bad idea for a bloated company for a couple of years, but do it every year for a decade or two is NOT productive - it caused huge problems at Microsoft).
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

Mike Scott
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by Mike Scott » Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:36 am

Statistically, things have gone up and down since 2000 but it does not seem that things are all that different now. Personally, we have paid off some debt and saved some money and raised three kids in that time frame. Inflation adjusted income is down and continues to decrease but it seems like we have more money now. Personal experience is very personal and very relative and has little to do with statistics.

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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by anonenigma » Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:46 am

FlyingMoose wrote:Shadowstats was showing inflation much higher than even the government claimed.
You rely on conspiracy sites for economic information?

KlangFool
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by KlangFool » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:04 am

HomerJ wrote:
KlangFool wrote:To be precise, I am saying for some of us, the employment situation had remained the same since 2000. So, for some of us, nothing had changed. Please note that even if the company is doing well, they still have annual lay off. So, for salary workers like us, there is no difference whether the economy is or is not in recession.
When the economy is in recession, there is a LARGER chance of being laid-off, and it's harder to find a new job. When the economy is not in recession, one is less likely to be laid-off, and it's easier to find a new job.
HomerJ,

You are speaking in general again. Which does not necessarily apply to some of us. It is as simple as that.

<< And if you don't like annual lay-offs, you can definitely find companies that actually have some clue how to hire good people, so that it's not necessary to implement an annual "10% rule" >>

1) Come on. You had worked long enough to understand the fallacy of this statement. I have 20+ years of experience. That makes me an expert in some specific area. It is both a good thing and a bad thing. I am very useful and valuable to some employers that require my set of skills. But, for others, I am no better than the younger and inexperienced folks. Why would they hire me if they do not require my set of skills? Even if I am willing to settle for lower pay, they are not willing to give me a chance.

2) I had been unemployed for more than 1 year a few times. So, I had explored all my options. This is not a theoretical discussion. I had experienced the reality out there and I am just reporting what I had seen.

KlangFool

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FlyingMoose
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by FlyingMoose » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:10 am

anonenigma wrote:
FlyingMoose wrote:Shadowstats was showing inflation much higher than even the government claimed.
You rely on conspiracy sites for economic information?
I found out about it on this very forum, so it wasn't just me...

BW1985
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by BW1985 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:12 am

I don't remember because I graduated college at the end of 2007 and started work Jan. 2008.. I only remember the crash and considering buying beat down stocks but I didn't. I barely had any money in the market and was a renter during the crash so it was just kind of entertaining to me.
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

anonenigma
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by anonenigma » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:12 am

FlyingMoose wrote:
anonenigma wrote:
FlyingMoose wrote:Shadowstats was showing inflation much higher than even the government claimed.
You rely on conspiracy sites for economic information?
I found out about it on this very forum, so it wasn't just me...
Do you believe the market quotes?

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HomerJ
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:34 am

KlangFool wrote:I had been unemployed for more than 1 year a few times. So, I had explored all my options. This is not a theoretical discussion. I had experienced the reality out there and I am just reporting what I had seen.
I also am in IT, and I switched jobs in 1997 and 2002 and 2007 and 2012... I LOOKED for jobs at other times as well (including 2009).

I found stark differences in the number of job postings. Immense differences. The recessions of 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 had huge impacts on employment listings.

However, I will accept that, for your skill-set, the number of jobs have remained fairly constant for 16 years straight, and every company you have worked for has laid-off the same percentage of people every year, regardless of how well the economy or the company was doing.

Best wishes.

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verbose
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by verbose » Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:48 am

I remember re-financing my mortgage twice in one year. I don't even remember if there was an in-person closing on the second refi, it might have been all by mail?

We had a home equity line of credit on a house bought with a 5% down payment in 1998 in an LCOL area. That's some crazy appreciation. Also, we had no business having a home equity line of credit, but it seemed like "free money." Ultimately, we sold that house in early 2007, just as housing prices were beginning to slide. So we did get our "free money" on that house (we blew it all on the next house, and then some).

As things started to get scary over the summer of 2007, we were renting while building a new house. The house we bought in 2007 (with an 80% loan plus a piggy-back balloon loan) still can't be sold for what we paid for it, even with the later addition of a finished basement. On the bright side, it's a long-term purchase, now paid down and refinanced to a 15-year fixed @3.25; we have considerable equity and no plans to sell.

We had friends in the house flipping business who had no business flipping houses, and it was obvious at the time. Our midwestern LCOL area hasn't been a hot market since 1904. "House flipping" should not even be a thing here. One friend had arranged closings on three houses all on the same day. He'd done this because each mortgage he was taking out didn't know about the other two mortgages. Given the lax lending environment, I'm not even sure if that scheme was fraudulent. That friend ended up bankrupt (no surprises there), along with other friends who weren't flipping houses and just got swept along in the easy-money-big-house frenzy.

2015
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by 2015 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:17 pm

HomerJ wrote:
KlangFool wrote:I had been unemployed for more than 1 year a few times. So, I had explored all my options. This is not a theoretical discussion. I had experienced the reality out there and I am just reporting what I had seen.
I also am in IT, and I switched jobs in 1997 and 2002 and 2007 and 2012... I LOOKED for jobs at other times as well (including 2009).

I found stark differences in the number of job postings. Immense differences. The recessions of 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 had huge impacts on employment listings.

However, I will accept that, for your skill-set, the number of jobs have remained fairly constant for 16 years straight, and every company you have worked for has laid-off the same percentage of people every year, regardless of how well the economy or the company was doing.

Best wishes.
HJ,

You and KF are both right in a sense. Part of what I did for a living before retirement involved hiring, recruiting, employment. Your experience is absolutely correct, because in recessions hiring is not only frozen, but organizations let people go. Jobs and job openings vaporize. I was personally laid off twice in the middle of the recession and was able each time to find another job, but it was a living nightmare.

For people like KF and the example of my brother above, given their skillsets, they are the lucky few, perhaps in the top 1-5% of wage earners who don't experience the employment pain the rest of us felt/feel during bad times. I tried telling my parents that despite a graduate degree and years in so-called orgnizational leadership my brother with a HS diploma has more job security than I'll ever have, but they're from another generation and hence live in another world.

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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by PoppyA » Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:40 pm

I remember friends buying real estate like crazy. It appeared to me these young professionals didn't know that the housing market could get to the point that they wouldn't be able to sell their property.

I also remember feeling stress from the the thought that terrorism was/could effect my investments. Market reaction felt like an unknown to me.

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AtlasShrugged?
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by AtlasShrugged? » Wed Dec 28, 2016 2:51 pm

FlyingMoose...I thought about your question. It is a good one. Let me just say that December 2016 does not feel anything like early 2007. At least, not to me. Here are some recollections I have.

My wife and I decided to sell our home in 2006. We did some structural work, some cosmetic work. We then listed it for an outrageously high amount, knowing that we would not get it, but would get a higher price than we would have gotten otherwise. It was this belief [knowing you'd get that higher price] that is very different than today. Others have mentioned there was a lot of talk about real estate bubbles. I have a somewhat different recollection. Yes, there was much talk about high housing prices, but there was also a lot of re-fi talk, and talk of a housing boom [meaning, a lot of new construction].....bubbles, not so much.

So what happened in my case? Well, the house was listed in June 2006, and we sold eight months later. Now let me tell you the scary part. The scary part was that I got a bridge loan to buy our new home, while the loan was closing on our original home. This was February 2007, and the storm clouds were gathering at that point. I had a couple of very stressful months, trying to get everything nailed down: two mortgage payments and a bridge loan. Everything closed in April, and we emerged relatively unscathed. But I ain't ever doing that again....it is a game for the youthful.

My other recollection is the 'psychology' of the market. People may say, "Oh, there was plenty of warning and X was talking about it" but that is not my recollection at all. People were investing - a lot. They were flipping houses - a lot. Unemployment was very low. Thinking back, there was nothing that 'screamed' that we were heading for trouble.

So what did I learn? One, be ready at any time for the bottom to drop out. Two, have a plan for when that bottom drops out.
“If you don't know, the thing to do is not to get scared, but to learn.”

btenny
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by btenny » Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:29 pm

I'm with Rusty. Which recession? 1974, 1977, 1981, -----, 2000, 2007? I have lived through all these and some not listed. Each had it own flavor and issues. The key was to learn how to live below your means and keep some money set aside for emergencies and to get a job and set of skills that were sort of recession proof. I worked for the same company for decades by being flexible and aggressive and always on the lookout for a new job. I think I had 10 different jobs in 20 years. So when things got bad I was always ready and trained for something new.

Remember the stock market crashes HARD about every 7 years. Like 20% or more down. We are over due.

You young guys have not lived until you waited in line 2 hours to buy 5 gallons of gas. Then do it again in 3 days. Oh and your car gets 7 mpg and your van gets 10 mpg. That was reality in 1974 when the world faced gas rationing and shortages. Prices went from 20 cents a gallon to 50 cents, a 2.5 fold price jump. And gas stations were limited on how much gas they could buy so they limited how much customers could buy. I had a extra 20 gallon tank installed on my Van for 40 gallons total so I could take road trips. I had to sleep a night with my kids in my van waiting for the gas station to open so I could buy gas and finish my trip.

Then we had the floods out west in Phoenix from 1978-1980 before we built bridges over our dry rivers. The rivers ran full for 2+ years and a 25 minute commute went to 1.5 hours most days. The city was in constant traffic grid lock with people trying to get across the river or some wash that was flooded. I was a innovator. I worked from home and a friends garage for over a year. We car pooled to a second work location one day a week. We did time cards that day for the whole week and got the boss to sign (illegally?). We used the Arpa net to send design files from home to work and back. We had long hair and bell bottom pants. We created microprocessors and calculators in our garages. Others made the first home computers.

But to modern recessions. I retired in December 1998. Prior to that business had been booming for a full decade. Our company was too busy. Everyone got regular raises, even poor performers. We had trouble hiring enough engineers. I had a great job and was making a good salary and bonuses. We were doing lots of projects. I was pretty sure my company was going to crash. We were hardware electronics driven. They refused to do much with software. Lots of software companies were springing up in Silicon Valley and Seattle. I was sure my company was going to crash. It did by late 2000. I did not know the whole stock market was going to crash in 2000. Things were getting better by 2001 but then 9-11-2001 happened and everything got a lot worse fast. The market crashed more. But all through the 1980s and 1990s real estate prices had been going up pretty steady. My house had appreciated 400% in those 20 years. I wanted to downsize so I sold in 2001. I thought those prices were pretty high.

Then for the next few years houses went up even more. Things were crazy with home prices from 2002 until 2007ish. Our small retirement home in Phoenix went up 100% in 5 years. My neighbor in Tahoe sold his house to his relatives 4 times in 4 years for big price increases each time and refinanced each time. That family took out over $1M in cash from loans on that $400K house in those four years. I knew this was crazy. I was sure that house prices would crash. They did. My neighbors home and lots of others got repossessed. The mortgage brokers and loan companies went broke. Again I did not know this would kill the economy.

Right now college sports costs and college tuition are going crazy. Colleges have 100s of different degrees and all the overhead managers for each degree. The kids are taking out huge loans for degrees that are worthless. These loans will go bad. Many of these colleges will crash and downsize a bunch. Salaries for software engineers seem pretty high as well. Can everyone with a little knowledge expect to make $200K plus bonus?

Good Luck.

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MEA
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by MEA » Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:50 pm

JCE66 wrote:
My other recollection is the 'psychology' of the market. People may say, "Oh, there was plenty of warning and X was talking about it" but that is not my recollection at all. People were investing - a lot. They were flipping houses - a lot. Unemployment was very low. Thinking back, there was nothing that 'screamed' that we were heading for trouble.

So what did I learn? One, be ready at any time for the bottom to drop out. Two, have a plan for when that bottom drops out.


That's the way I remember it too. There was no irrational exuberance speech. George Bush would remind us that his administration had achieved the highest levels of home ownership ever. It seemed like he worked that into every speech he gave.

“I found a flaw in the structure of how the world works” is what Greenspan said after the crisis. The government was just as blindsided as the rest of us.
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by cheese_breath » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:02 pm

btenny wrote:...You young guys have not lived until you waited in line 2 hours to buy 5 gallons of gas. Then do it again in 3 days. Oh and your car gets 7 mpg and your van gets 10 mpg. That was reality in 1974 when the world faced gas rationing and shortages. Prices went from 20 cents a gallon to 50 cents, a 2.5 fold price jump....
And don't forget the skyrocketing gas prices after the OPEC embargo ended. Gas pumps had mechanical gauges in those days and weren't designed for prices above 99.9 cents per gallon. So they halved the per-gallon price on the pump, and the customer paid twice the total pump price.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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burt
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by burt » Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:44 pm

What was it like before the recession ?

From my experience the 80's and 90's were good. I had optimism (maybe due to youth).
A layoff in 98 was easily handled with a new job within 4 weeks. We were happy.
The 9/11/01 layoff was tough. Companies freaked and immediately stopped capital spending. I ended up relocating my family out of state. I took a really bad job (24/7 on call salary) just to survive.
Took a new job and relocated out of state again in 2007. I was very, very lucky to survive the 2008 carnage. 25% layoffs in my department. Yes, lucky. I am not a stellar over achiever. Just lucky to be on the right project.

Retired last year with a 25 year pension and retiree medical.
I would like a new Impala and a convection oven. The competition would like a motor scooter and a hot plate.

I feel very sorry for the next generation. They will have it much tougher than my generation.

burt

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HomerJ
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:30 pm

burt wrote:What was it like before the recession ?

From my experience the 80's and 90's were good. I had optimism (maybe due to youth).
A layoff in 98 was easily handled with a new job within 4 weeks. We were happy.
The 9/11/01 layoff was tough. Companies freaked and immediately stopped capital spending. I ended up relocating my family out of state. I took a really bad job (24/7 on call salary) just to survive.
Took a new job and relocated out of state again in 2007. I was very, very lucky to survive the 2008 carnage. 25% layoffs in my department. Yes, lucky. I am not a stellar over achiever. Just lucky to be on the right project.

Retired last year with a 25 year pension and retiree medical.
I would like a new Impala and a convection oven. The competition would like a motor scooter and a hot plate.

I feel very sorry for the next generation. They will have it much tougher than my generation.

burt
How did you get a 25 year pension and retiree medical if you took a new job in 2007? and got laid off in 2001? Or was that from your first job back in the 70s-80s-90s?

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burt
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by burt » Thu Dec 29, 2016 5:57 am

HomerJ wrote:
burt wrote:What was it like before the recession ?

From my experience the 80's and 90's were good. I had optimism (maybe due to youth).
A layoff in 98 was easily handled with a new job within 4 weeks. We were happy.
The 9/11/01 layoff was tough. Companies freaked and immediately stopped capital spending. I ended up relocating my family out of state. I took a really bad job (24/7 on call salary) just to survive.
Took a new job and relocated out of state again in 2007. I was very, very lucky to survive the 2008 carnage. 25% layoffs in my department. Yes, lucky. I am not a stellar over achiever. Just lucky to be on the right project.

Retired last year with a 25 year pension and retiree medical.
I would like a new Impala and a convection oven. The competition would like a motor scooter and a hot plate.

I feel very sorry for the next generation. They will have it much tougher than my generation.

burt
How did you get a 25 year pension and retiree medical if you took a new job in 2007? and got laid off in 2001? Or was that from your first job back in the 70s-80s-90s?
I rehired with a previous company. I was just lucky.

burt

leod
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by leod » Thu Dec 29, 2016 7:19 am

KlangFool wrote:
HomerJ wrote:
KlangFool wrote:
FedGuy wrote:
KlangFool wrote:As far as I am concerned, we are still in a recession.
Huh? "Recession" is a technical term referring, generally speaking, to two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth. I fully acknowledge that times can be very, very tough for many people outside of recessions, but that's not relevant to whether or not a recession actually exists. To say that you consider this country to still be in recession because employment conditions aren't as rosy as anyone (myself included) would like is like saying "as far as I am concerned, it's still fall" simply because it isn't as cold as we expect winter to be.
FedGuy,

1) I am stating my opinion. You do not have to agree with me. Ditto, just because some statistic say that the economy is or is not growing has no relevance to me. I am not a statistic.

2) For some of us, there has been no change since 2000. We have been facing the same situation.

3) If you disagree with me, please tell me what are the difference between now and after 2008/2009?

KlangFool
(2) is incorrect. It's not an opinion to say you have been facing the same situation since 2000. Every year has not had the same employment prospects as every other year. Some have been better, some have been worse.

You might want to look at different employers, instead of waiting to get laid off.
HomerJ,

1) You are not me. How could you say that I did not face the same situation over the last 10+ years? You won't know that anyhow. And, if I faced quarterly and annual layoff with my employer over the last 10+ years, how could you say that my employment prospects is different?

<<You might want to look at different employers>>

2) I did. I worked with 4 separate companies over this time period. The only difference is between quarterly laf and annual lay off.

KlangFool
KlangFool, you must be in IT? I am on the same position and been laid off once and changed employers 5 times (or 7X since 2 of those companies has been bought by others).

I dont think I can last long in this environment and outsourcing will finally catch up on me. Pay is not getting higher compared to what it was in the last 10 years while the risk is getting bigger.

KlangFool
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by KlangFool » Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:00 am

leod wrote:
KlangFool, you must be in IT? I am on the same position and been laid off once and changed employers 5 times (or 7X since 2 of those companies has been bought by others).

I dont think I can last long in this environment and outsourcing will finally catch up on me. Pay is not getting higher compared to what it was in the last 10 years while the risk is getting bigger.
leod,

I had changed too many times to know what I am anymore. I am in IT/Datacom/Telecom. At this moment, I am a network engineer. I tried to adapt and survive as long as possible.

KlangFool

tim1999
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by tim1999 » Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:20 am

mac808 wrote:I was working in real estate at the time. From early 2006 on I remember that prices felt way, way too high. But somehow even very smart people were drinking the koolaid and feeling the pressure to buy quickly or be forever priced out, even at the very end. It's not enough to identify the bubble (which could persist/grow for years), you also have to identify the catalyst that will cause it to pop. And I guess these days you have to try to guess what gov/central bank intervention will be also (good luck with that one).
I recall in late 2006 I worked part time on weekends as a "greeter" in a homebuilder's model home in an exurb location. In a matter of months we went from having traffic go from 10-15+ visitors daily to only 1 or 2 people, some days nobody. And the people we were getting towards the end were people with bad credit, no money, or both, people who probably earned a combined $70,000 per year inquiring about $400,000+ luxury houses with $10k/yr. taxes we were selling. Things seem to implode instantly and the company was out of business by mid 2007. The builder who bought the remaining lots out of the bankruptcy went bankrupt themselves, many of the lots are still vacant, the lots that were later built upon have much less expensive houses on them.

clast
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by clast » Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:18 pm

This is a great post.

I wasn't very tuned in to the market before the crash (I didn't have much money), but I do remember this: A friend of mine called me asking me to invest in some kind of mortgage security thing that was making crazy returns (probably the famous CDO's or whatever). I didn't understand it, didn't have money to invest anyway.

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Portfolio7
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Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:34 pm

There are two times in my life I wanted to sell all my equities. The first was in March of 2000. The second was in October of 2007. This feels nothing like either of those times.

In 1999, the market had improbably soared again. Everyone knew the market was over-valued, to the extent that they were making up new ways to evaluate dot.com businesses because so many business had no earnings. The magazines had run umpteen articles on overvalued stocks, and irrational exuberance. It was clear that either basic business relationships had changed, or something had to break. I believed the latter, but as a relative newbie, had little faith in my investing prowess. I held the course. In 2007, I'd been following several investment blogs, some from former hedge fund types. There was a consistent theme of structural danger in the clearly over-valued housing market, and also in derivatives. Stories of no doc loans, no income loans were rampant in industry talk and was leaking into the MSM. I didn't fully comprehend what was coming by any means, but had an inkling. It's the only time I ever deviated from Buy and Hold, and I got lucky.

Back to 2016. There are several modest issues WW. I don't see any of them driving huge economic dislocations, which is what I look for. 20% drops are commonplace, and not representative of huge economic dislocations. Maybe something is there right now that I don't see, but if so, I will simply stay the course when it hits.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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