DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
-
- Posts: 1128
- Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:06 pm
- Location: Arizona USA
DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?
Almost there
Almost there
Re: DOW
I predict it will, which based on past performance means there's a slightly better than 50% chance it won't.
The smartest hedge fund managers I know all dove into broad market puts about six months ago. If we're still at this level or higher by the end of Jan it will prove to me once and for all (for the second or third time) that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with any reasonable sense of timing, and that rising markets can be just as dangerous as falling ones.
The smartest hedge fund managers I know all dove into broad market puts about six months ago. If we're still at this level or higher by the end of Jan it will prove to me once and for all (for the second or third time) that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with any reasonable sense of timing, and that rising markets can be just as dangerous as falling ones.
-
- Posts: 49020
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: DOW
Definitely Maybe.Almost there wrote:Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?
Almost there
-
- Posts: 1128
- Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:06 pm
- Location: Arizona USA
Re: DOW
Almost made it today.
19,911.21
19,911.21
Re: DOW
I suspect that there's a firm possibility of a definite maybe.
"Happiness Is Not My Companion" - Gen. Gouverneur K. Warren. |
(Avatar is the statue of Gen. Warren atop Little Round Top @ Gettysburg National Military Park.)
- McGilicutty
- Posts: 349
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:24 pm
Re: DOW
I'll let you know on December 30th (or maybe even earlier).
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (Dow Jones Industrial Average). I also retitled the thread.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Yes. I predict it will happen tomorrow morning.
- arcticpineapplecorp.
- Posts: 15080
- Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Why does it matter? It would only matter if you ONLY owned the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones. Do you only own the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and nothing else?
If instead you own the S&P500, or the total stock market index fund, or a smattering of total international stock market index fund along with a total bond market index fund, maybe even a small cap index fund or small cap value index fund, emerging market index fund (you see where I'm going with this, right?)...then whether or not the Dow goes up above 20,000 only affects the small portion of your portfolio that includes those 30 stocks. Get it?
If instead you own the S&P500, or the total stock market index fund, or a smattering of total international stock market index fund along with a total bond market index fund, maybe even a small cap index fund or small cap value index fund, emerging market index fund (you see where I'm going with this, right?)...then whether or not the Dow goes up above 20,000 only affects the small portion of your portfolio that includes those 30 stocks. Get it?
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Yes!!
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Forget the Dow; I need the S&P 500 to pick up about another 1000 points in the next 2-1/2 weeks.
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 |
lang may yer lum reek
-
- Posts: 1128
- Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:06 pm
- Location: Arizona USA
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Inching up to 20,000
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
What kind of news would we need to achieve that?k66 wrote:Forget the Dow; I need the S&P 500 to pick up about another 1000 points in the next 2-1/2 weeks.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Honestly though, there is a very high correlation between the DOW, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. If the DOW is up, everything else is pretty much up as well. It is a pretty good proxy for the overall market, especially over time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:Why does it matter? It would only matter if you ONLY owned the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones. Do you only own the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and nothing else?
If instead you own the S&P500, or the total stock market index fund, or a smattering of total international stock market index fund along with a total bond market index fund, maybe even a small cap index fund or small cap value index fund, emerging market index fund (you see where I'm going with this, right?)...then whether or not the Dow goes up above 20,000 only affects the small portion of your portfolio that includes those 30 stocks. Get it?
-
- Posts: 1128
- Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:06 pm
- Location: Arizona USA
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Could you please start a new post about the S&P? This posting is just about the Dow reaching 20,000.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will definitely [ ] hit 20,000 [ ] not hit 20,000 by the end of 2016.
(Remind me to update this post at 5PM on December 30.)
BTW, what is your exact criteria? Is an intraday high of 20,000 adequate, or does the Dow have to close above 20,000? And is there some special cookie or other bonus you get if that happens?
(Remind me to update this post at 5PM on December 30.)
BTW, what is your exact criteria? Is an intraday high of 20,000 adequate, or does the Dow have to close above 20,000? And is there some special cookie or other bonus you get if that happens?
-
- Posts: 1670
- Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:17 pm
- Location: 27,000 light years from the Galactic Center of the Milky Way Galaxy (the suburbs)
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
There is one. It's called the Boglehead Contest. There are over 600 predictions of where the S&P 500 will finish the year.Almost there wrote:Could you please start a new post about the S&P? This posting is just about the Dow reaching 20,000.
2016 Boglehead Contest
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
-
- Posts: 1128
- Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:06 pm
- Location: Arizona USA
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Thank you for letting me know about the contest.
-
- Posts: 1670
- Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:17 pm
- Location: 27,000 light years from the Galactic Center of the Milky Way Galaxy (the suburbs)
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Almost there wrote:Thank you for letting me know about the contest.
2017 Boglehead Contest Registration ReminderREGISTRATION for the 2017 Boglehead Contest will begin January 1, 2017 and end January 10.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Yup. They're all good proxies for the overall market and more often than not, when one is up, the others are too. But this last month has seen a bit of a separation. FWIW, the SP500 Industrials has done even better recently (not to mention financials, which there are a few in the Dow):kenschmidt wrote:Honestly though, there is a very high correlation between the DOW, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. If the DOW is up, everything else is pretty much up as well. It is a pretty good proxy for the overall market, especially over time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:Why does it matter? It would only matter if you ONLY owned the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones. Do you only own the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and nothing else?
If instead you own the S&P500, or the total stock market index fund, or a smattering of total international stock market index fund along with a total bond market index fund, maybe even a small cap index fund or small cap value index fund, emerging market index fund (you see where I'm going with this, right?)...then whether or not the Dow goes up above 20,000 only affects the small portion of your portfolio that includes those 30 stocks. Get it?
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XLI ... %2C%5EGSPC
I predict the SP500 won't hit 20,000 for a while. Dec. 25, 2066? (yeah, I know, the market is probably going to be closed)Almost there wrote:Could you please start a new post about the S&P? This posting is just about the Dow reaching 20,000.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Dow wow wow yippie yo yippie yay.
“Stay the course is the most important piece of advice I can give you.”-Bogle
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
I'll bet you $5 it either will or it wont.Almost there wrote:Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?
Almost there
Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to light.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:Why does it matter?
what were you doing on NYE December 31, 1999?
A parallel scenario (kinda). Big hype around NYE that year (aside from the Y2k bug)
Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to light.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
It probably will go past 20,000. But I am not sure if it will stay there for too long. We are definitely due for some type of pull back. Of course in the long term - it should definitely go higher.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
No it will not.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
-
- Posts: 1128
- Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:06 pm
- Location: Arizona USA
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Well finally made it to 20,000.
-
- Posts: 1636
- Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
zzzz wake me up when it's at 40000
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Just reminded that indicies are actively managed when the news mentioned that AAPL is doing well today (3rd behind BA and CAT). They casually mentioned that AAPL replaced T a couple of years ago, so I though I'd take a look and see how they performed:Almost there wrote:Well finally made it to 20,000.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/sto ... region=usa (can't seem to link a comparison chart)
Guess what? If they didn't replace A with AAPL, there's a good chance we would have surpassed this number last year. Since May 2015 when the change took place, T is up nearly 19% and AAPL down almost 8%! So really it's just another number and under the old calculation it might be 20187 with even less significance.
- Phineas J. Whoopee
- Posts: 9675
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2011 5:18 pm
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Yours is an incomplete comparison, because in conjunction with making the change to the Dow 30 there is always a change to the divisor. Furthermore, if there were any other Dow 30 changes you'd have to tease out just the part of the divisor change that was due to the one substitution.inbox788 wrote:...
Guess what? If they didn't replace A with AAPL, there's a good chance we would have surpassed this number last year. Since May 2015 when the change took place, T is up nearly 19% and AAPL down almost 8%! So really it's just another number and under the old calculation it might be 20187 with even less significance.
I agree it's really just another number, which has I think some small amount of utility as a long continuous series, but people use it for things without understanding how it's calculated, which leads to flawed reasoning.
PJW
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
“I'm often wrong, but never in doubt.” - Ivy Baker Priestoldzey wrote:Yes!!
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
- Sandtrap
- Posts: 19590
- Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:32 pm
- Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi - white sandy beaches, N. Arizona 1 mile high.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Thanks "arcticpineapplecorp" for the clarification.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:Why does it matter? It would only matter if you ONLY owned the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones. Do you only own the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and nothing else?
If instead you own the S&P500, or the total stock market index fund, or a smattering of total international stock market index fund along with a total bond market index fund, maybe even a small cap index fund or small cap value index fund, emerging market index fund (you see where I'm going with this, right?)...then whether or not the Dow goes up above 20,000 only affects the small portion of your portfolio that includes those 30 stocks. Get it?
Lemme see if I can apply this concept. . . .
So, a highly diversified "Boglehead" 50/50 portfolio would right now see the equity half go up a tad or maybe even a smidgeon, and the bond side falling like rocks in a pond.
Is this true given what is currently happening?
I hope I got this concept and application in the ballpark.
Thanks everyone for your help. I'm learning.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Of course it's incomplete. It's a major chore to calculate the averages manually. And if you think that number I threw out is a calculation of any sort, throw out that notion. I simply made up a random number > 20,000, but I'm pretty sure it is because AAPL is negative since the switch while T is quite a bit positive, and everything else is kept equal for the rest of the 29 remaining members. Going back a few more years involved 3 trade outs, and that's even more complex (given one was HP and went through a split).Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:Yours is an incomplete comparison, because in conjunction with making the change to the Dow 30 there is always a change to the divisor. Furthermore, if there were any other Dow 30 changes you'd have to tease out just the part of the divisor change that was due to the one substitution.inbox788 wrote:...
Guess what? If they didn't replace A with AAPL, there's a good chance we would have surpassed this number last year. Since May 2015 when the change took place, T is up nearly 19% and AAPL down almost 8%! So really it's just another number and under the old calculation it might be 20187 with even less significance.
I agree it's really just another number, which has I think some small amount of utility as a long continuous series, but people use it for things without understanding how it's calculated, which leads to flawed reasoning.
PJW
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones ... components
I went online to see if I could find a what if calculator that someone might have done to track the before and after changes to the DJIA index, but I failed to come up with any historic comparisons. What if we used the original components? What if we used the Black Monday 1987 ones?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historica ... 12.2C_1987Inco and Owens-Illinois were replaced by Boeing and Coca-Cola.
It's an interesting list with Inco Limited ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vale_Limi ... le_history ) and Owens-Illinois ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owens-Illinois ) being dropped that year. I'd imagine Black Monday wouldn't have been all different if these two were in the index instead of KO and BA, but 30 years later, they've taken quite different paths. Don't know if in hindsight we would make different changes to Inco, OI, and all the others. Inco became part of Vale and I don't know anything about OI, but a couple of historic charts only go back as far as 1991, which makes me think there was some significant event/reorganization that occurred.
Here are some other names back then:
Eastman Kodak Company
Allied-Signal Incorporated (Honeywell)
American Can Company
Sears Roebuck & Company
Westinghouse Electric Corporation
F. W. Woolworth Company
The decisions of when and what to replace in the Dow has had a profound effect on the number we see today. I can easily see a different set of replacements into the index in the last 30 years where the level was around 2000 that could have led to 10,000 being the level today or just as easily 30,000.
Oh, and if no one has really gone back and examined this active fund (and their choices) performance in more detail, no wonder the rest of the active funds are forgotten.
- Phineas J. Whoopee
- Posts: 9675
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2011 5:18 pm
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
I didn't mean to impugn your personal scholarship, so fair enough, except for one thing.
A point sometimes is made here that index funds, by which posters always seem to mean S&P 500 funds, except in this case where it's Dow 30 funds even though it isn't an index, are actively, not passively, managed, because they're following a company which makes choices other than strictly total market cap weighting, therefore the whole idea of passive management is bankrupt, therefore you owe me 1.5% of your portfolio per year. I am not accusing you of making the last part of that point, because you did not. If you mean some particular thing by passive vs. active fund management, and you'd like us to take it into consideration when evaluating indices, of which the DJIA is not one, then please by all means give us your definitions.
PJW
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a fund, therefore it isn't an actively managed fund.inbox788 wrote:...
Oh, and if no one has really gone back and examined this active fund (and their choices) performance in more detail, no wonder the rest of the active funds are forgotten.
A point sometimes is made here that index funds, by which posters always seem to mean S&P 500 funds, except in this case where it's Dow 30 funds even though it isn't an index, are actively, not passively, managed, because they're following a company which makes choices other than strictly total market cap weighting, therefore the whole idea of passive management is bankrupt, therefore you owe me 1.5% of your portfolio per year. I am not accusing you of making the last part of that point, because you did not. If you mean some particular thing by passive vs. active fund management, and you'd like us to take it into consideration when evaluating indices, of which the DJIA is not one, then please by all means give us your definitions.
PJW
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
I think it's worth mentioning that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes hit record highs today too.
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
I don't have precise definitions or delineations, but if it looks like a duck,... I don't know if you're saying the DJIA is or is not an index, but AFAIK, it's an index. It's also an active fund for all intents and purposes. You can't trade the DJIA, but you can trade one of their shadow funds. Same as SPX vs SPY/VOO, etc. RYDHX (Expense ratio 1.55%!) or you can use the ETF DIA, which I didn't immediately see the expense ratio, but assume is quite a bit less. So whether or not you chose to call it an active fund, the selection process of members can have a large effect on the outcomes far in the future.Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:I didn't mean to impugn your personal scholarship, so fair enough, except for one thing.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a fund, therefore it isn't an actively managed fund.inbox788 wrote:...
Oh, and if no one has really gone back and examined this active fund (and their choices) performance in more detail, no wonder the rest of the active funds are forgotten.
A point sometimes is made here that index funds, by which posters always seem to mean S&P 500 funds, except in this case where it's Dow 30 funds even though it isn't an index, are actively, not passively, managed, because they're following a company which makes choices other than strictly total market cap weighting, therefore the whole idea of passive management is bankrupt, therefore you owe me 1.5% of your portfolio per year. I am not accusing you of making the last part of that point, because you did not. If you mean some particular thing by passive vs. active fund management, and you'd like us to take it into consideration when evaluating indices, of which the DJIA is not one, then please by all means give us your definitions.
PJW
I'm guilty of conflating the index/fund business, but my point was simply that the 20,000 would have been reached on a different date (and not just surpassing 20,000 today) if nothing (i.e. keep T) or something else (pick other than AAPL) was done 2 years ago. And if you go further back, many decisions would have created a scattering of potential outcomes. Because the SP500 has more members, you'd think statistically, you'd be closer to the mean, but the active selection process in the SP500 adds similar bifurcations, so 2300, 2400, etc. have similar variances, but to a lesser degree.
Don't read too much into what I'm saying because I'm just talking about computing a number. I haven't read the discussions regarding market weight vs price weight indices, or selected (Dow, SP) vs sampling (monkeys) vs systematic/algorithmic (Russell 1000/2000/3000 and Wilshire 5000), but for the most part they all do their job giving a representation of the market and don't really vary all that much among themselves. Because of the constant variability in the marketplace, even the most systematic methods of selecting funds are subject to the butterfly effect. On the day the members are selected, the 999 and the 1001 rank stocks may as well be equal, but one is included in the larger cap group while the other smaller cap. After a year, their rank can be hundreds apart and can influence the outcome of the index average to a small degree (and rarely to a larger degree -- imagine if AAPL was added to the Dow in 1987 instead of 2015, say replacing EK).
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 52211
- Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
- Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Whispering:Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:...The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a fund, therefore it isn't an actively managed fund...
but there is a well-established ETF, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, DIA, which tracks it.
Actually, given the general love for "blue chip stocks" and "small portfolios of individual stocks from great companies" I'm surprised we don't hear much more about DIA. $16 billion in assets, 0.17% ER, been around since 1/13/1998 which makes it one of the older ETFs, and, since its inception, has beaten both the S&P 500 and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.
State Street Global Advisors should try saying that the DJIA has smart beta, or that it is full-to-bursting with "the spider factor."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
- Phineas J. Whoopee
- Posts: 9675
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2011 5:18 pm
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Well, sure, nisi, but I was responding to inbox788's assertion that nobody notices S&P Dow Jones Indices chooses which stocks to include in the Dow 30 and changes them occasionally, and thereby nobody realizes the index which isn't an index doesn't qualify as an undefined-term-passively-managed-fund-of-which-it-isn't-a-fund-at-all, and consequentially investors don't notice there's an aspect of human judgement in the S&P 500, and inbox788 explicitly claimed no expertise to distinguish between price-weighted and cap-weighted and less-than- and total-market indices, and funds which try to match them, which means the concept of undefined-passive-management is bankrupt, therefore you owe me 1.5% of your portfolio annually.nisiprius wrote:Whispering:Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:...The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a fund, therefore it isn't an actively managed fund...
but there is a well-established ETF, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, DIA, which tracks it.
...
It's your very own oft-repeated argument stood on its head.
I don't accuse inbox788 of including the owe-me-1.5%-annually part, because s/he didn't, even though I note s/he listed only S&P 500 index funds just like I said people who make that argument do, and listed an S&P 500 index fund whose expense ratio is 1.55%, just about like I said therefore everybody owes me.
I thought we were in agreement, but now I'm not so sure. If I understand your argument against the obviously-there-is-no-passive-management-therefore-you-owe-me-1.5%-of-your-portfolio-every-year-or-else-you're-a-Marxist-so-hurry-up-and-pay-me-because-they're-going-to-repossess-my-boat-tomorrow position, I'm completely on board.
If I've misunderstood then perhaps I'm not.
PJW
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
55 hyphens and I got lost on number 1.Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:Well, sure, nisi, but I was responding to inbox788's assertion that nobody notices S&P Dow Jones Indices chooses which stocks to include in the Dow 30 and changes them occasionally, and thereby nobody realizes the index which isn't an index doesn't qualify as an undefined-term-passively-managed-fund-of-which-it-isn't-a-fund-at-all, and consequentially investors don't notice there's an aspect of human judgement in the S&P 500, and inbox788 explicitly claimed no expertise to distinguish between price-weighted and cap-weighted and less-than- and total-market indices, and funds which try to match them, which means the concept of undefined-passive-management is bankrupt, therefore you owe me 1.5% of your portfolio annually.nisiprius wrote:Whispering:Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:...The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a fund, therefore it isn't an actively managed fund...
but there is a well-established ETF, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, DIA, which tracks it.
...
It's your very own oft-repeated argument stood on its head.
I don't accuse inbox788 of including the owe-me-1.5%-annually part, because s/he didn't, even though I note s/he listed only S&P 500 index funds just like I said people who make that argument do, and listed an S&P 500 index fund whose expense ratio is 1.55%, just about like I said therefore everybody owes me.
I thought we were in agreement, but now I'm not so sure. If I understand your argument against the obviously-there-is-no-passive-management-therefore-you-owe-me-1.5%-of-your-portfolio-every-year-or-else-you're-a-Marxist-so-hurry-up-and-pay-me-because-they're-going-to-repossess-my-boat-tomorrow position, I'm completely on board.
If I've misunderstood then perhaps I'm not.
PJW
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Wow! I feel like I stepped on a mine I wasn't aware of. Or there is a Hatfield vs. McCoy Feud about something that I'm not a party to or haven't chosen sides because I don't understand feud or the sides. Anyway, apologies if anything I've said fanned the flames.
As far as the Dow, this is an interesting comment about some recent changes to the Dow. Asks some interesting questions, notes some good observations and provides speculation as to some of the recent changes.
Why Does the Dow Change the Stocks it Tracks?
last updated July 04, 2016
https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/wh ... -it-tracks
As far as the Dow, this is an interesting comment about some recent changes to the Dow. Asks some interesting questions, notes some good observations and provides speculation as to some of the recent changes.
Why Does the Dow Change the Stocks it Tracks?
last updated July 04, 2016
https://trendshare.org/how-to-invest/wh ... -it-tracks
On average, it changes every 2-3 years.On March 19, 2015, the Dow Jones Industrial Average changed for the 54th time in 130 years. The DJIA (or Dow) is one of the most popular measurements of stock market and economic activity, even though it's changed more often than you might think.
If this is true, how is this different from a fund manager attempting to find a stock that will grow the most? With the goal to track the market or economy vs. trying to maximize the profits of the fund, do they achieve their goal?When the Dow changes the companies it tracks—as it does every few years—it does so in an attempt to reflect the behavior of the American economy and the stock market more effectively. What's the true state of American business? Which industries are growing? Which are shrinking? Which companies are truly the core of American corporate business? When the Dow member companies change, pay attention.
Not sure this is one of the arguments, but even with market cap weighing, switching stocks in and out changes the composition and meaning of the number. After a while, if a large fraction of the stocks are switched (sometime by necessity - takeovers, mergers, splits, bankruptcies, etc.) is the index still comparable?Further, changes in the DJIA over its lifespan—not just changes to the stocks tracked but the weighting multiplier of the index itself—make the index difficult to analyze over the long term. Sure, the fact that the Dow hit 18,000 points in late 2014 seems like an interesting figure, but it's an impressive and round number based not on market capitalization but on stock prices divorced from things like the P/E Ratio or dividend yield suggest that the measurement is arbitrary and artificial. It represents something, but does it represent something worth acting on? This is one persistent and strong criticism of the DJIA. It's scorekeeping without intrinsic meaning.
Re: DOW
another vote for 'stay the course'.mac808 wrote:I predict it will, which based on past performance means there's a slightly better than 50% chance it won't.
The smartest hedge fund managers I know all dove into broad market puts about six months ago. If we're still at this level or higher by the end of Jan it will prove to me once and for all (for the second or third time) that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with any reasonable sense of timing, and that rising markets can be just as dangerous as falling ones.
Happy 20,000 day, on to 30,000!!!
Edit: I am in my mid 20s, just did some math and there is a good chance I will see DOW 100,000 in my lifetime!!! on to 100,000!!!
Last edited by bantam222 on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
- Posts: 1059
- Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:10 pm
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
DJIA is sort of a "sloppy" index? But "20,000" is still significant since it roughly parallels the S&P 500 much of the time (and I think as of "Dow 20,000" day the S&P 500 was at or near its all time high?
I think when the market hits new highs such that the popular news media picks up on it and the public seems to get optimistic,the tendency is for more new money to start coming into the market,especially more first time clients,and yet some of them tend to be the first to leave at a loss upon the first significant pull back that inevitably occurs.
Analogy: When Real Estate seems to be rising in price rapidly and house sales are up a lot of new people seem to try to become Real Estate Agents and yet when the Real Estate market slows down those newer agents are likely to leave that profession
I think when the market hits new highs such that the popular news media picks up on it and the public seems to get optimistic,the tendency is for more new money to start coming into the market,especially more first time clients,and yet some of them tend to be the first to leave at a loss upon the first significant pull back that inevitably occurs.
Analogy: When Real Estate seems to be rising in price rapidly and house sales are up a lot of new people seem to try to become Real Estate Agents and yet when the Real Estate market slows down those newer agents are likely to leave that profession
- nisiprius
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 52211
- Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
- Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry
Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Yes. That is a crystal-clear statement of my position.Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:...If I understand your argument against the obviously-there-is-no-passive-management-therefore-you-owe-me-1.5%-of-your-portfolio-every-year-or-else-you're-a-Marxist-so-hurry-up-and-pay-me-because-they're-going-to-repossess-my-boat-tomorrow position, I'm completely on board...
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.