Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

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petergibbons
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Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 11:50 am

Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by petergibbons » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:03 pm

It is a paid investment newsletter than gives advice re: stocks, bonds, precious metals etc. Any one have any experience or thoughts?

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9-5 Suited
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:14 pm

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by 9-5 Suited » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:08 pm

"The financial media tends to focus most of its attention on stock market forecasts by purported investment gurus. They do so because they know that's what gets the public's attention. Investors must believe they have value or they wouldn't tune in. Nor would they subscribe to investment newsletters, nor publications like Barron's that claim to provide you with "news before the markets know."

Unfortunately for investors, there's a whole body of evidence demonstrating that market forecasts have no value (though they provide me with plenty of fodder for my blog) -- the accuracy of forecasts is no better than one would randomly expect. For investors who haven't learned that forecasts should only be considered as entertainment, or what Jane Bryant Quinn called investment porn, they actually have negative value because forecasts can cause them to stray from well-developed plans."

- Larry Swedroe

My advice: Avoid newsletters and other forms of market prediction at all costs.

petergibbons
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Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 11:50 am

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by petergibbons » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:51 pm

9-5 Suited wrote:"The financial media tends to focus most of its attention on stock market forecasts by purported investment gurus. They do so because they know that's what gets the public's attention. Investors must believe they have value or they wouldn't tune in. Nor would they subscribe to investment newsletters, nor publications like Barron's that claim to provide you with "news before the markets know."

Unfortunately for investors, there's a whole body of evidence demonstrating that market forecasts have no value (though they provide me with plenty of fodder for my blog) -- the accuracy of forecasts is no better than one would randomly expect. For investors who haven't learned that forecasts should only be considered as entertainment, or what Jane Bryant Quinn called investment porn, they actually have negative value because forecasts can cause them to stray from well-developed plans."

- Larry Swedroe

My advice: Avoid newsletters and other forms of market prediction at all costs.


While I do agree with you, and I am pretty skeptical in general, this guy seems to have a good track record according to the data he has published on his website. That to me is something worth considering. Just wanted to see if anyone here has any thoughts on what he has to offer on his site.

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Watty
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Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by Watty » Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:09 pm

I am always skeptical that someone with effective investment picking skills or a special method would choose to sell a newsletter for a relatively modest amount when they could work on Wallstreet or trade their own account and make a seven figure plus yearly income.

There are hundreds if not thousands of newsletters and blogs that purport to give good stock picking advice. Just by random chance some of them will be right and those will be the ones that survive so their track record may not mean much. This is called "survivorship bias" and you can Google that.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:26 pm

petergibbons wrote:It is a paid investment newsletter than gives advice re: stocks, bonds, precious metals etc. Any one have any experience or thoughts?

Peter:

The Aurora Report is primarily a market-timing newsletter. You can read what experts say about market timing in the link below (note particularly what Mark Hulbert, who tracks newsletter performance, has to say):

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156499

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Mav
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Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:55 pm

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by Mav » Sun Nov 27, 2016 11:36 pm

Trader/Investor wrote:https://www.cxoadvisory.com/21058/individual-gurus/arora-report-performance-review/


How credible are these guys, I'd know about them for years ? Is it worth subscribing?

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9-5 Suited
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Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:14 pm

Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by 9-5 Suited » Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:42 am

Be very cautious about assuming past performance is predictive of future results.

Imagine you flip a coin ten times and I guess correctly the outcome each time. Would you consider me a coin flipping guru, or even entertain remotely the idea such foresight was possible?

How many newsletters and advisors and firms would you suppose tout their poor track records? I'd guess none.

Proceed with caution is all. Don't lose your skepticism!

John1960
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Re: Any thoughts on The Aurora Report?

Post by John1960 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:49 am

The Arora Report is neither a traditional market timing service nor a traditional buy and hold service.

They have different services. One of the Arora investment newsletters makes investments in different time frames ranging from very long term to very short term. The concept is to have a core of long term positions and surround them with shorter term investments.

The Arora Report is diversified by time frame. This is like diversifying by asset class and different sectors. This way if investments in one time frame do not work out, they work out in another time frame.

My experience with this approach of The Arora Report is that this reduces risk over buy and hold. It also adds a very nice kicker to returns.

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