Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

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livesoft
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Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:00 pm

... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?
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CaliJim
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Re: Today was an RBD ...

Post by CaliJim » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:40 pm

Please...save me the analysis... which asset class. Long bonds? (which I don't own)
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hawkfan55
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Re: Today was an RBD ...

Post by hawkfan55 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:42 pm

What is RBD? ..... Buying Day?

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Re: Today was an RBD ...

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:53 pm

hawkfan55 wrote:What is RBD? ..... Buying Day?

Really Bad Day.
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Re: Today was an RBD ...

Post by FillorKill » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:00 pm

CaliJim wrote:Please...save me the analysis... which asset class. Long bonds? (which I don't own)

My guess is livesoft was talking about EM - but duration had a bad hair day too - ZROZ down 6.6%

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:17 pm

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General (general investing).

The acronym is in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms

RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by triceratop » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:22 pm

livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


grap0013 should have already bought EM last week when it closed lower.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Day9 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:31 pm

Today is a great reminder to diversify globally and across asset classes, and to stay the course. Two very important Boglehead core principles.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by spectec » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:20 pm

I agree.
I'm diversified across Fixed Income & VTI with my Asset Allocation formula.
I'm diversified globally with the international operations of the companies in VTI.
Thanks for the reminder.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Toons » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:51 pm

Stretch,,
Then,,,
Yawn :happy
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danaht
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by danaht » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:18 pm

It was also a really bad day for real estate (VNQ) and utilities (VPU). I'm thinking this is probably due to fear of possible rate hike(s) by the FED.

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grap0013
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by grap0013 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:30 pm

livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by peppers » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:36 pm

401k contribution went in today, intermediate investment grade bonds and US/ex US equity.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Tycoon » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:40 pm

RBD? We're up 12k.
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livesoft
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:40 pm

grap0013 wrote:
livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.

You could have exchanged IJS for DGS. :twisted:
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by triceratop » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:53 pm

livesoft wrote:
grap0013 wrote:
livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.

You could have exchanged IJS for DGS. :twisted:


Okay, I'm tempted to start a position in DGS now, part of my 10% EM tilt (I tilt value domestically but my portfolio is small enough that I haven't seriously tilted value internationally yet, only small). I only have about $4000 available; do you think that's worth the transaction costs vs. VWO for an ETF buy at Vanguard. Fortune favors the bold, and this seems like the right time to take investment risks :twisted:
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by MindBogler » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:55 pm

I rebalanced out of bonds into SCV about 3 days ago. The only thing bad today is now my bonds went from 0 -> -5% band and SCV is at +6%. I don't like making moves in quick succession and I can't say I've ever hit a band twice in 3 days, so I'll just wait it out for awhile.

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:58 pm

MindBogler wrote:I rebalanced out of bonds into SCV about 3 days ago. The only thing bad today is now my bonds went from 0 -> -5% band and SCV is at +6%. I don't like making moves in quick succession and I can't say I've ever hit a band twice in 3 days, so I'll just wait it out for awhile.

I think you will regret not rebalancing back.
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livesoft
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:01 pm

triceratop wrote:... do you think that's worth the transaction costs vs. VWO for an ETF buy at Vanguard. Fortune favors the bold, and this seems like the right time to take investment risks :twisted:

I cannot say for sure, but probably not. I will tell you that I will sell the DGS I bought today if it goes up even a little bit in the next few days.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by MindBogler » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:01 pm

livesoft wrote:
MindBogler wrote:I rebalanced out of bonds into SCV about 3 days ago. The only thing bad today is now my bonds went from 0 -> -5% band and SCV is at +6%. I don't like making moves in quick succession and I can't say I've ever hit a band twice in 3 days, so I'll just wait it out for awhile.

I think you will regret not rebalancing back.

Tomorrow is a new day. If it is still down at the open, I will accept your challenge!

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by grap0013 » Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:22 am

triceratop wrote:
livesoft wrote:
grap0013 wrote:
livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.

You could have exchanged IJS for DGS. :twisted:


Okay, I'm tempted to start a position in DGS now, part of my 10% EM tilt (I tilt value domestically but my portfolio is small enough that I haven't seriously tilted value internationally yet, only small). I only have about $4000 available; do you think that's worth the transaction costs vs. VWO for an ETF buy at Vanguard. Fortune favors the bold, and this seems like the right time to take investment risks :twisted:


Swap out half you VWO for a 50:50 mix of DGS + either PXH/FNDE. Then we'll watch 5 year returns. EM value is cheap.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

livesoft
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by livesoft » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:04 am

And DGS continues to go down while IJS continues to go up.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Engineer250 » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:39 am

danaht wrote:It was also a really bad day for real estate (VNQ) and utilities (VPU). I'm thinking this is probably due to fear of possible rate hike(s) by the FED.


Yeah noticed my VNQ was down, but not down enough. I had a rollover that wasn't invested that a couple months ago I had to split up amongst my normal asset allocation. I held off on only the VNQ part of it, since VNQ had gone up so much in the last year, and I've been dollar cost averaging about 1/10th or less of the money meant for VNQ into it at around the beginning of each month. This seems to have paid off since VNQ has done nothing but drop since my rollover was complete. I might bite the bullet and go all in once it reaches $72. Or I might keep DCA-ing. Who knows. Everyone has been saying "I wouldn't buy REIT right now" but it's part of my asset allocation, so, there it is. And nothing's changed my mind about wanting to have it.

Speaking of hypotheticals and planning for the future I would appreciate some advise/understanding...if someone expects inflation to pick up next year, does that change anything about asset allocation? Is it better to hold off on buying bonds until after inflation has picked up or does it not matter? If inflation picks up is it expected that long term interest rates will pick up as well? My understanding is the fed only controls short term interest rates, not long term. So I'm wondering what might happen to bond funds (not individual bonds) and if there is a prescription. I am a youngin', so have never lived in a high inflation environment, and would like to know what to expect if nothing else but to be prepared to handle it and do nothing.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by MindBogler » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:44 am

livesoft wrote:I think you will regret not rebalancing back.

I rebalanced back. Que sera sera!

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grap0013
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by grap0013 » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:18 pm

livesoft wrote:And DGS continues to go down while IJS continues to go up.


My patient rebalancing looks like it may pay off....

Interesting 2 days between SCV and DGS. Spread yesterday 5+% in opposite directions and more negative correlation today. It's not that common for these two to be in opposite directions, with this magnitude, and in consecutive days.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by livesoft » Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:51 pm

China now has a bullseye on it, so exchange rates and other things make EM a bad deal.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Boglegrappler » Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:23 pm

There is a lot going on inside the market that is invisible to indexers. Today's action had a large downtick in consumer staples and defensive stocks, and an uptick in cyclicals.

Pretty interesting stuff if that persists.

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Johnnie » Thu Nov 10, 2016 6:36 pm

Heh heh - I began transitioning into the Ultimate slice and dice one year ago, with EM my first bite (SCHE). It's 8 percent of my equities (total equities 40 percent international).

This went down early in the year with everything else, but then roared through the summer. This week I was introduced to the experience of them going down even faster than they go up.

Doesn't really qualify as an RBD though because they're still up for the year and 12 months.

<shrug> We'll get there Pop.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Johnnie » Thu Nov 10, 2016 6:37 pm

Johnnie wrote:Heh heh - I began transitioning into the Ultimate slice and dice one year ago, with EM my first bite (SCHE). It's 8 percent of my equities (total equities 40 percent international).

This went down early in the year with everything else, but then roared through the summer. This week I was introduced to the experience of them going down even faster than they go up.

Doesn't really qualify as an RBD though because they're still up for 2016 and the past 12 months.

<shrug> We'll get there Pop.
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by inbox788 » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:39 pm

livesoft wrote:China now has a bullseye on it, so exchange rates and other things make EM a bad deal.

Slowing Chinese economy is doing more to bring down EM indices. Successful Singles Day will help stimulate the economy, so it should help EM rise. All in all, it's volatile, but full sail ahead.

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by FillorKill » Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:51 am

inbox788 wrote:Slowing Chinese economy is doing more to bring down EM indices. Successful Singles Day will help stimulate the economy, so it should help EM rise. All in all, it's volatile, but full sail ahead.

Per capita GDP growth and real stock returns have been negatively correlated. Economic growth might make China a nicer place to live for those successful singles but it isn't as likely to do our EM equity investments much good. :|

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by grap0013 » Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:56 am

Shoot my retirement contribution went thru a day early due to the holiday. Missed a 3% sale. Maybe EM will be lower in 2 weeks! :twisted:
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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by danaht » Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:59 pm

The RBD turned into a RBW for Emerging Markets. I would add more -VWO (or IEMG/SCHE) but can't. My 401k contribution isn't until next month. I don't re-balance by selling either. My only re-balance plan is is to buy more of the assets that I am low on while still contributing.

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by Tamarind » Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:10 pm

REITs hit my rebalancing target and then some. So I bought more. Not large amounts since it's a small allocation.

My bonds, which had been high but not enough to trigger rebalancing, are now right on target.

Investments and their simple logic are a welcome source of calm amid turmoil.

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Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Post by MindBogler » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:00 pm

My EM is at -3.57%. If this keeps up, I'll have to buy EM as well. It might be time to fund the Roth for the year...

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