Just don't panic

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Valuethinker
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Just don't panic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:15 am

If there are personal issues (eg healthcare insurance coverage) then it is prudent, perhaps, to raise a bit more cash.

But history says don't panic. It is not appropriate to be either over bullish nor over bearish.

Small changes in asset allocation, tweaks, are possible. But we don't know how this will play out in terms of actual policies, decisions etc.

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munemaker
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by munemaker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:16 am

What are you talking about?

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:24 am

munemaker wrote:What are you talking about?
Not to start any sort of political thread, I think the OP is referring to the market's reaction to the outcome of the U.S. President race.

I'm staying the course. It'll all settle down given enough time.
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LibertyLover
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by LibertyLover » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:28 am

International allocation is in play I believe. At least short term.

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triceratop
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by triceratop » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:29 am

Reminder that political discussion is forbidden by the Forum Policies

Attempts to suborn political discussion will not be looked upon favorably.
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lgs88
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by lgs88 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:37 am

S&P500 futures suggest that the market is about to give back the gains of the past couple days at the open. An RBD, certainly -- livesoft, you out there? -- but hardly a cataclysm. We shall see.
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munemaker
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by munemaker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:53 am

smartinwate wrote:
munemaker wrote:What are you talking about?
Not to start any sort of political thread, I think the OP is referring to the market's reaction to the outcome of the U.S. President race.

I'm staying the course. It'll all settle down given enough time.
Ignore the noise and the financial porn. Stay the course.

livesoft
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:59 am

lgs88 wrote:S&P500 futures suggest that the market is about to give back the gains of the past couple days at the open. An RBD, certainly -- livesoft, you out there? -- but hardly a cataclysm. We shall see.
Maybe not even an RBD.
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by magneto » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:21 am

A UK investor found this morning that VUSA the Vanguard S&P tracker moved down sharply then recovered a little.

If the US market was closed, i.E. not moving, why did the tracker move?

This movement is understandable from an anticipatory aspect.
Also offers the investor a chance to trawl/fish for trackers at lower pricing,
But raises the question, when are trackers not really trackers?

Have noticed similar tracker pricing shifts on other occasions when the relevant main market not open.
'There is a tide in the affairs of men ...', Brutus (Market Timer)

Coato
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Coato » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:27 am

The interesting argument is the flip side of "The S&P 500 has global companies so there is no need to invest in international stocks." Seemingly, the international exposure of those companies might be a source of volatility now.

This is something I have no idea about. I am not advocating a position, but am going to be watching.

Given a possible change in international trade policies:

1. Would it be less volatile to be in a combo of US mid caps and companies that don't have international positions plus International large caps? To isolate the country risk?

2. Or safer to be in US mega-caps that are global?

I don't even know enough to know if this is an investing or an economics question. Previously it was said that there was a correlation between US and Intl Large caps. Will this still be true with different trade policies?

TO BE CLEAR: As a permanent portfolio position, not an adjustment to find temporary safety.

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riptide
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by riptide » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:58 am

Won't this be a great buying opportunity? The market really dropped last night during the election. Can't it be a good buying opportunity in the next couple days?
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Blister
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Blister » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:21 am

I have some cash I needed to invest in equities. Anyone else buying on the dip today.
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riptide
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by riptide » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:37 am

Blister wrote:I have some cash I needed to invest in equities. Anyone else buying on the dip today.

I hope to wait a few days for it to drop more .....
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by lazydavid » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:37 am

Hoping that it stays down the rest of the week....my 401k contribution isn't until Friday. :mrgreen:

willing2try
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by willing2try » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:45 am

riptide wrote:
Blister wrote:I have some cash I needed to invest in equities. Anyone else buying on the dip today.

I hope to wait a few days for it to drop more .....

I agree that it will drop more over the next few days. But I don't see it rebounding anytime soon.

livesoft
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:48 am

In the next month or so TIAA Real Estate account may rise up from worst performer of 2016.
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carguyny
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by carguyny » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:53 am

Futures seem to be bouncing around 1% to 2% down, not sure there will be a massive dip. Tomorrow is my regular buying day - may do some re-balancing today unless there is a major dip which I don't expect.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by bertilak » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:54 am

riptide wrote:Won't this be a great buying opportunity? The market really dropped last night during the election. Can't it be a good buying opportunity in the next couple days?
I will see it as a good buying opportunity if i triggers a rebalance band. Otherwise I will consider it to be a non-actionable non-event.
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sperry8
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by sperry8 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:01 am

Asia was down 5% I heard. If that moves some funds like EFG down 5% I'll be a buyer. Been waiting for a lower oppty to get in.
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Quark » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:04 am

riptide wrote:Won't this be a great buying opportunity? The market really dropped last night during the election. Can't it be a good buying opportunity in the next couple days?
It depends. Will the future be better or worse than the market expects? And, if you have any confidence you have the right answer to that question, please explain exactly what the market expects and why you have a better idea of what the future will bring.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Bacchus01 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:08 am

Don't panic, but certainly tax loss harvest. Don't lose that opportunity. The market is more likely to bounce than stay down very long.

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Flymore
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Flymore » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:12 am

Agree it'll all settle down over time.

At the risk of market timing, who's buying on the open?

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by carolinaman » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:21 am

Flymore wrote:Agree it'll all settle down over time.

At the risk of market timing, who's buying on the open?
I am looking at more than a 5% drop before buying which may not happen. I definitely will be monitoring the market more closely than usual until things stabilize but do not plan on selling anything.

cutehumor
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by cutehumor » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:27 am

carolinaman wrote:
Flymore wrote:Agree it'll all settle down over time.

At the risk of market timing, who's buying on the open?
I am looking at more than a 5% drop before buying which may not happen. I definitely will be monitoring the market more closely than usual until things stabilize but do not plan on selling anything.

I'm going to be doing the same. I took off vacation this week. So, I'll looking at 5% or more discount this week. :D

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by pop77 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:31 am

Would it make sense to use the cash reserved for IBonds in Nov for equity? Looks like the new administration will be more inclined to increase interest rates and that would possibly mean better fixed rates.

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Flymore
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Flymore » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:33 am

Crazy, AMGN and CAT both up 8% on the open.

We may not see -5% - stay the course.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by an_asker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:35 am

livesoft wrote:
lgs88 wrote:S&P500 futures suggest that the market is about to give back the gains of the past couple days at the open. An RBD, certainly -- livesoft, you out there? -- but hardly a cataclysm. We shall see.
Maybe not even an RBD.
I tried to market time a $100 ETF purchase (limit order) and I'm afraid it's not going to go through :oops:

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by an_asker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:36 am

carolinaman wrote:
Flymore wrote:Agree it'll all settle down over time.

At the risk of market timing, who's buying on the open?
I am looking at more than a 5% drop before buying which may not happen. I definitely will be monitoring the market more closely than usual until things stabilize but do not plan on selling anything.
A limit order is your friend ... but, like mine, it might not execute!!

jjface
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by jjface » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:38 am

minor noise only

cutehumor
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by cutehumor » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:40 am

Flymore wrote:Crazy, AMGN and CAT both up 8% on the open.

We may not see -5% - stay the course.

I'm trying to buy emerging markets ETF. so, if investors feel that China, Mexico feel their trade deals with USA is in jeopardy. the emerging markets ETF should drop. Vanguard emerging markets (VWO) has dropped 2.58% in the first ten minutes of the NYSE opening.

learning_head
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by learning_head » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:10 am

Today's market open is pretty amazing and I think should be memorable. It's funny to see all the websites filled with headlines about market being down huge, next to little tickers showing barely any movement. A very good lesson for how hard it is to predict market behavior, even within hours and minutes...

P.S. and yes, I realize DOW futures were down quite a bit over night, but noone seems to have expected this market action

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Flymore
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Flymore » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:11 am

cutehumor wrote:
Flymore wrote:Crazy, AMGN and CAT both up 8% on the open.

We may not see -5% - stay the course.

I'm trying to buy emerging markets ETF. so, if investors feel that China, Mexico feel their trade deals with USA is in jeopardy. the emerging markets ETF should drop. Vanguard emerging markets (VWO) has dropped 2.58% in the first ten minutes of the NYSE opening.
Yesterday was a big buy day on VWO, but today it's a big question.
How much trade be changed with emerging markets?

So hard to see what sector to go to, maybe VHT?

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Nate79 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:22 am

All the talk about the coming really big drop in the market, DOW futures, get ready to tax loss harvest, blah blah blah blah. In the end it turns out yet again that no one has a crystal ball and the results is....... nothing (at least right now markets are basically bouncing around flat). The fools just look more foolish trying to predict the market.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by bertilak » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:37 am

Looks to be another ho-hum day on Wall Street. 8-)
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by minesweep » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:38 am

At the moment it's looks better than a ho-hum day.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by aj76er » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:41 am

I'm guessing that there was enough pre-election data out there for the outcome to already be priced into the market.

Although it is nice to see VTI and VXUS moving in opposite directions. Confirms that the US-to-Intl correlation is still less than 1 :)
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by FullYellowJacket » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:42 am

Like I told DW, the thing markets hate more than anything was uncertainty. Now we are certain of who the president will be, the markets went up a little bit.

Valuethinker
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:53 am

pop77 wrote:Would it make sense to use the cash reserved for IBonds in Nov for equity? Looks like the new administration will be more inclined to increase interest rates and that would possibly mean better fixed rates.

Until Janet Yellen leaves in 2018 it's unlikely interest rate policy will be very different. The Fed was signalling gradual rises, and that's what is likely to happen. Rise perhaps in December or January.

The US political system grinds ever slow, no big changes before February. Federal Reserve is independent of the rest of government.

ibonds are a pretty attractive investment and you are only allowed to buy a fixed amount every year. I would continue with that plan, unless when you get to November, they are really unattractive compared to say 5 year CDs.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:56 am

Coato wrote:The interesting argument is the flip side of "The S&P 500 has global companies so there is no need to invest in international stocks." Seemingly, the international exposure of those companies might be a source of volatility now.

This is something I have no idea about. I am not advocating a position, but am going to be watching.

Given a possible change in international trade policies:

1. Would it be less volatile to be in a combo of US mid caps and companies that don't have international positions plus International large caps? To isolate the country risk?

2. Or safer to be in US mega-caps that are global?

I don't even know enough to know if this is an investing or an economics question. Previously it was said that there was a correlation between US and Intl Large caps. Will this still be true with different trade policies?

TO BE CLEAR: As a permanent portfolio position, not an adjustment to find temporary safety.
US companies are generally not big exporters. Boeing and Caterpillar yes. But, generally. A lower dollar would certainly help them.

Rather they are more like Pfizer say-- global manufacture, global sales. They have the ability to relocate operations and activities to minimize the effect of trade barriers. Ditto Google, Amazon, Apple etc.

Trade is such a complex area (as we are finding out with Brexit!) that changes are not likely to happen in a hurry. Most foreign car manufacturers (of any scale) also manufacture in the USA for example w parts made in Mexico, say.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:58 am

magneto wrote:A UK investor found this morning that VUSA the Vanguard S&P tracker moved down sharply then recovered a little.

If the US market was closed, i.E. not moving, why did the tracker move?

This movement is understandable from an anticipatory aspect.
Also offers the investor a chance to trawl/fish for trackers at lower pricing,
But raises the question, when are trackers not really trackers?

Have noticed similar tracker pricing shifts on other occasions when the relevant main market not open.
Was it currency move?

Hard Brexit is not looking quite so likely as it was, so GBP up on rumours of a soft Brexit. Meanwhile USD down?

Nonetheless the ETFs can move around if the underlying index is not trading-- spreads should widen though.

Was that what happened?

MathWizard
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by MathWizard » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:04 pm

Markets react to uncertainty. (Uncertainty equated to a risk.)

The market seems to be recovering some of the ground it lost in recent days not that there is an outcome.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by MP173 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:08 pm

Was there an election?

Ed

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:17 pm

an_asker wrote:
livesoft wrote:
lgs88 wrote:S&P500 futures suggest that the market is about to give back the gains of the past couple days at the open. An RBD, certainly -- livesoft, you out there? -- but hardly a cataclysm. We shall see.
Maybe not even an RBD.
I tried to market time a $100 ETF purchase (limit order) and I'm afraid it's not going to go through :oops:
I used some market orders this week (including this morning) and had no problems. I'll post screen capture in the "Case study: Trade executions" thread.
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Valuethinker
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:19 pm

aj76er wrote:I'm guessing that there was enough pre-election data out there for the outcome to already be priced into the market.

Although it is nice to see VTI and VXUS moving in opposite directions. Confirms that the US-to-Intl correlation is still less than 1 :)
As with Brexit, the market more or less tracked the polls, when they proved to be wrong, the market corrected sharply. It's simply the market's "guess" at the economic and financial implications of an outcome that surprised it.

Just about everything else is an unknown, as it always is with a new Administration.

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CaliJim
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by CaliJim » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:38 pm

So... you are saying to "chive on"?
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bertilak
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by bertilak » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:48 pm

minesweep wrote:At the moment it's looks better than a ho-hum day.
Well, ya made me look and you are right!
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Quark
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Quark » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:48 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
aj76er wrote:I'm guessing that there was enough pre-election data out there for the outcome to already be priced into the market.

Although it is nice to see VTI and VXUS moving in opposite directions. Confirms that the US-to-Intl correlation is still less than 1 :)
As with Brexit, the market more or less tracked the polls, when they proved to be wrong, the market corrected sharply. It's simply the market's "guess" at the economic and financial implications of an outcome that surprised it.

Just about everything else is an unknown, as it always is with a new Administration.
It seemed to me that with Brexit, the polls were very close, while the betting markets, pundits and financial markets heavily favored remain.

For example, "John Curtice, the dean of British polling, said Brexit surveys were actually pretty accurate. 'In the end, the average of the opinion polls was 51-52% for Remain, but we had some putting Leave ahead, and the Internet polls said it was a 50-50 shot from the beginning'"

In this election, the polls clearly favored one candidate (the major poll aggregator average was a 5.3% lead at the end, a less reliable one was +3.2%) and it appears most everyone (including both campaigns) believed that candidate would win. Overnight, as it became clear that candidate would lose, futures moved from about +0.5% to about -4.5%, before recovering and the market is now at about +0.8%.

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Re: Just don't panic

Post by abuss368 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:51 pm

Valuethinker wrote:If there are personal issues (eg healthcare insurance coverage) then it is prudent, perhaps, to raise a bit more cash.

But history says don't panic. It is not appropriate to be either over bullish nor over bearish.

Small changes in asset allocation, tweaks, are possible. But we don't know how this will play out in terms of actual policies, decisions etc.
Hi Valuethinker,

Ok, I am lost. Would you be able to expand your thoughts.

Best.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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CaliJim
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by CaliJim » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:52 pm

To memorialize what happened - and that panic in the middle of the night often does nothing to the markets in the morning - here is a chart of Vanguard Total World ETF (VT) - the morning after the 2016 election:

Image
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Da5id
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Re: Just don't panic

Post by Da5id » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:16 pm

Anyone have insight into why bond prices are significantly dropping/yields raising? e.g 10 year bonds are down 1 21/32 and yields up to 2.048%. Did the election in some way cause people to sell bonds? To predict higher future inflation/fed rate raises?

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