Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by orca91 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:28 am

Market insurance...

Congrats, you invented a new term to justify market timing. :happy

I will have to agree to disagree with you, Doc.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Doc » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:55 am

I think we need a better definition of market timing.

Using some of the ideas presented here rebalancing using bands and tax loss harvesting would be market timing. But rebalancing on a time schedule is not market timing.

In my way of thinking market timing is making a significant trade before an event but making the trade after the event is something else. On the other hand if someone were to sell equities after a stock market crash I would consider that market timing (and also bad investing :D ).
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by saltycaper » Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:01 pm

Doc wrote:
I do not consider whether I use Vg Corp Bond fund or Vg Investment Grade bond fund as a different AA position. Many of my bond funds make larger changes in their portfolio in the normal course of business than the one I made myself. I don't "rebalance" my FI position every three months because a fund publishes its quarterly portfolio. Now if I was changing 20% of my corporate bond allocation to Treasuries on a long term basis that would be a different matter.
But you didn't say you were switching from Vg Corp Bond to Vg Investment Grade bond! :) I agree if you changed between two intermediate-term bond funds that held all/almost all corporate bonds, and did so for the long term, you're not changing your AA, you're simply changing the funds you use to implement your AA. But you said, "I converted 5-10% of my portfolio from short term corporates to 90 day t-bills" Switching from a short-term corporate bond fund to 90-day t-bills is not changing the funds you use to implement your AA, it's changing your AA, especially when you note this is a temporary change. It's certainly a smaller change than going from short-term corporates to long-term Treasurys, or from emerging markets stocks to US small-cap value, but it's a change nevertheless. The fact that you intend this to be only a short-term change motivated by potential market events makes it market timing. Anyway, I'm not trying to be critical of what you're doing--makes no difference to me. I only disagree in what you're calling the move.
Last edited by saltycaper on Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Novine » Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:12 pm

"If it doesn't matter in the long run, why the resistance to paying front end commissions and loads?"

Front-end commissions and loads diminish the amount you have to invest before you put a single dollar towards the investment.

"If it doesn't matter in the long run, what's the problem of postponing new investments a few days or weeks?"

Let's say you guess correctly, and it is a guess, and the market takes a downturn. How do you know when to get back in? This is the problem with market timers like yourself. You have to be right twice. If you wait too long, you can miss out on gains and it's been shown that even missing a few of the best days in returns can have an an appreciable impact on your long-term returns. People get into the pattern of thinking they can outsmart the market. But most of them can't.

"I am happy with my AA and don't plan to change it, I just won't be committing new money."

Again, what difference does it make? I'm betting that a year from now, you won't be able to show how that move made any difference in your portfolio.

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Post-election market trend?

Post by joebh » Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:22 pm

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

I know we don't market time here. And I know predictions are basically worthless.

But does anyone have an idea of where the market might head post-election?
If I were a timer and a predictor, what should I do post-election?

If I had to bet, I'd say that the market will get a nice post-election bump in the range of 3-5% pretty much immediately, with low volatility for a few months, due to the removal of some major uncertainty.

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Re: Post-election market trend?

Post by iceport » Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:31 pm

joebh wrote:I know we don't market time here. And I know predictions are basically worthless.

But does anyone have an idea of where the market might head post-election?
If I were a timer and a predictor, what should I do post-election?

If I had to bet, I'd say that the market will get a nice post-election bump in the range of 3-5% pretty much immediately, with low volatility for a few months, due to the removal of some major uncertainty.
Ha! Removal of uncertainty? Doesn't that depend dramatically on how the election is resolved? Can you not envision an outcome that produces exploding uncertainty?
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Doc » Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:03 pm

saltycaper wrote:I only disagree in what you're calling the move.
I think I already said that.
Doc wrote:I think we need a better definition of market timing.
If I use your definition of market timing then I market time six or more times a year. That's because I put all taxable dividends into some very short term FI investment but and then move that to a somewhat longer duration every quarter. But it's still all FI and the duration changes less than the change from funds changing the duration (and sector allocations) themselves.

If there is a hurricane coming I put up the storm shutters even though the storm may miss us. That's a lot different from packing up the house and moving everything to Missouri. The first is "buying" insurance the latter is storm (market) chasing (timing). :D

We have over 10 bonds funds because of multiple brokerage accounts (his/hers/ours, taxable/tIRA/ROTH), brokerage availability and tax considerations. Movement among these funds is frequent but the entire portfolio never deviates by more than a few percent from the BarCap Intermediate (1-10) Bond Index which I use as our bogey. Most bogleheads don't do work that way.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by saltycaper » Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:22 pm

Doc wrote:
If I use your definition of market timing then I market time six or more times a year. That's because I put all taxable dividends into some very short term FI investment but and then move that to a somewhat longer duration every quarter. But it's still all FI and the duration changes less than the change from funds changing the duration (and sector allocations) themselves.
I don't think this is market timing as it seems the moves are timed around your liabilities rather than market movements.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:31 pm

I merged joebh's thread into here. As stated earlier, please do not mention the names of any political candidates or parties.
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Re: Post-election market trend?

Post by joebh » Sat Nov 05, 2016 2:50 pm

iceport wrote:
joebh wrote:I know we don't market time here. And I know predictions are basically worthless.

But does anyone have an idea of where the market might head post-election?
If I were a timer and a predictor, what should I do post-election?

If I had to bet, I'd say that the market will get a nice post-election bump in the range of 3-5% pretty much immediately, with low volatility for a few months, due to the removal of some major uncertainty.
Ha! Removal of uncertainty? Doesn't that depend dramatically on how the election is resolved? Can you not envision an outcome that produces exploding uncertainty?
No.

For good or for very bad, I think it will be very clear where the country is headed once the election is concluded.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by MindBogler » Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:14 pm

The hand wringing in this thread is nonsensical. Are memories so short that we've already forgotten Brexit? Election "uncertainty" is nothing more than an excuse for emotional behavior, volatility and profit taking. It doesn't matter who wins. Four years from now this thread will look ridiculous.
:beer

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by cheese_breath » Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:18 pm

MindBogler wrote:The hand wringing in this thread is nonsensical. Are memories so short that we've already forgotten Brexit? Election "uncertainty" is nothing more than an excuse for emotional behavior, volatility and profit taking. It doesn't matter who wins. Four years from now this thread will look ridiculous.
:beer
Four years from now there will probably be another ridiculous thread just like this. :?
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by MindBogler » Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:23 pm

cheese_breath wrote:Four years from now there will probably be another ridiculous thread just like this. :?
Of that, we can be certain!
:sharebeer

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by hoops777 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:39 pm

I am waiting because if the market moves a significant amount,it will be down and not up.I know this because I know :D
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:01 pm

Instead of naming the candidate, someone suggested the gender of the election winner - which resulted in two off-topic challenges. All three posts were removed.

Additional comments in this direction will result in stronger moderator actions.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by livesoft » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:39 pm

If one or two states have a close vote, then the election may not be concluded on Tuesday.

In my area, already about 55% of the registered voters have voted during the early election times. In contrast back in 2012, only 66% of eligible voted in total.

If the market tanks, then that is a rebalancing opportunity.
If the market pops, then that is also probably a rebalancing opportunity.

I think I am safe in predicting a major market move this next week.
Last edited by livesoft on Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Doc » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:43 pm

livesoft wrote:If one or two states have a close vote, then the election may not be concluded on Tuesday.
Invest in Maalox futures?
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by peppers » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:53 pm

The bi-weekly 401k contribution hits the account on 11/9.

The drama and suspense is building..... :wink:
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Re: Post-election market trend?

Post by bligh » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:57 pm

I hope the sell off continues for a bit. This is a great buying opportunity. :)

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by joebh » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:27 pm

MindBogler wrote:Election "uncertainty" is nothing more than an excuse for emotional behavior, volatility and profit taking.
I don't think I understand your point.
Are you saying that widespread emotional behavior, volatility and profit taking don't move markets?

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Dale_G » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:48 pm

I haven't tried to time the market in at least 25 years, but I am inclined to add to my mid-cap value fund. Because I am basically a procrastinator and contrarian, I'll wait until Tuesday morning - before the news. Let the chips fall where the may. The buy will amount to less than 0.5% of the portfolio, so no big deal.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by boglephreak » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:49 pm

cheese_breath wrote:
MindBogler wrote:The hand wringing in this thread is nonsensical. Are memories so short that we've already forgotten Brexit? Election "uncertainty" is nothing more than an excuse for emotional behavior, volatility and profit taking. It doesn't matter who wins. Four years from now this thread will look ridiculous.
:beer
Four years from now there will probably be another ridiculous thread just like this. :?
should be two years if people actually felt politics had that big of an impact.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by hoops777 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 10:52 pm

I always get a kick out of all the pronouncements about just put it all in now it doesn't matter.You are not allowed to look at world conditions and the economy and have an opinion.We are all lemmings.To hold off investing it all for a few days because we have the craziest election in our history along with what might happen with all the hacking and everything else going on is prudent in my opinion.Thank you.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by hoops777 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 10:52 pm

Double post
Last edited by hoops777 on Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Novine » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:46 pm

"To hold off investing it all for a few days because we have the craziest election in our history along with what might happen with all the hacking and everything else going on is prudent in my opinion."

How much are you holding off and what percentage of your total portfolio does it represent?

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Dale_G » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:48 pm

I prefer to invest when there is uncertainty. If I needed (sort of) certainty, I would buy CDs or Tbills. The more uncertainty, the better the prospective returns. There may be even better opportunities after the election, but that too is uncertain.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by MindBogler » Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:14 pm

joebh wrote:I don't think I understand your point. Are you saying that widespread emotional behavior, volatility and profit taking don't move markets?
This is just the most recent excuse people have used to convince themselves that this time is different. Was that not clear?

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Tamalak » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:35 am

hoops777 wrote:I always get a kick out of all the pronouncements about just put it all in now it doesn't matter.You are not allowed to look at world conditions and the economy and have an opinion.We are all lemmings.To hold off investing it all for a few days because we have the craziest election in our history along with what might happen with all the hacking and everything else going on is prudent in my opinion.Thank you.
Every election is the "craziest election in our history", as I recall. Well except Clinton vs. Dole. That one was pretty mellow.

If you want to "hold off on investing in stocks because of x/y/z imminent volatile event" you should stay away from stocks altogether because they are one volatile event after another, most of which you can't see in advance. Presidential election probably won't even make the top 10 for this year.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by cutehumor » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:49 am

I'm going to put a limit order. I expect the media to conjure up some "drama" for the election. the stock market will drop a little bit, then I'll buy on the discount. either way, it won't make a huge difference. but an extra 0.50 cents a share will compound in my favor :D

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by jjface » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:58 am

Oh look the markets are moving back today - looks like Wall Street wins again taking advantage of pre election sell off fears . Market timing doesn't work for the little people.

Markets will drop tomorrow or the next to create the next panic wave.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by orca91 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:02 am

Or, they already know who is going to win? :happy

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:10 am

mickens16 wrote:I recall the same discussions regarding BREXIT and after a few days it was all forgotten.
The FTSE All-Share is down in USD terms since Brexit. Although the FTSE100 (about 85% of the index) is 60-70% hedged against falling sterling by high exposure to USD earnings, certain sectors are down quite a bit (in dollar terms).

and GBP/USD is down 18% since the Brexit vote. In fact, except for the Sri Lankan currency, the GBP is down against *every* other currency, since then. Surely some kind of historical record?

For those of us with a high appetite for imports and/or foreign travel expenses, we are markedly worse off. The UK is a massive importer (e.g. the world's largest importer of champagne), and supermarket food prices are already rising (ditto petrol).

So "it was all forgotten". Not quite.

I would note: Brexit hasn't happened yet. We have a new Prime Minister, and they've just lost a court case about it (Parliament will get the right to vote on the deal, it cannot be done under Royal Prerogative by the Prime Minister). The government is, of course, appealing.

So no one knows the shape of Brexit or its actual impacts, as for the moment we have not even formally notified the EU that we are leaving (Triggered Article 50) which starts the 2 year clock.

Generally election results are known much sooner.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:16 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:15 am

The election could have significant financial results.

However it's really difficult to play these things. Brexit showed you even the betting markets can get these things very wrong.

The US is so huge in world markets (currency, stock and every other type of financial market) so that all markets will likely move in sympathy. Except maybe currency.

Nowhere to hide. Maybe gold.

Do your civic duty, vote, and sit back and watch the fireworks.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:18 am

orca91 wrote:Or, they already know who is going to win? :happy
Ignoring the implicit irony, playing this straight bat.

Beware the Brexit vote, which totally blindsided the market. Sterling moved about 10% in half an hour in the middle of the night. The key tipoff was the Sunderland percentage.

Markets are *not* perfect forecasters. Brexit proved that (the polling situation was unusual, because in a referendum every vote counts equally, thus magnifying the impact of an omitted sub group).

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:25 am

Tamalak wrote:
hoops777 wrote:I always get a kick out of all the pronouncements about just put it all in now it doesn't matter.You are not allowed to look at world conditions and the economy and have an opinion.We are all lemmings.To hold off investing it all for a few days because we have the craziest election in our history along with what might happen with all the hacking and everything else going on is prudent in my opinion.Thank you.
Every election is the "craziest election in our history", as I recall.
1860
1968

Those 2 at least were truly crazy-- 1968 saw the Tet Offensive, LBJ's withdrawal after New Hampshire, MLK and RFK fall to assassin's bullets, the subsequent riots, the Chicago Democratic convention. 1860 was of course much much worse-- the election of Mr Lincoln guaranteed the secession of the southern states, and the young Republic would begin its greatest test (after, perhaps that winter at Valley Forge?). Maybe 1824 as well? (vague about that part of American history).

If you want to "hold off on investing in stocks because of x/y/z imminent volatile event" you should stay away from stocks altogether because they are one volatile event after another, most of which you can't see in advance. Presidential election probably won't even make the top 10 for this year.
I think it could, at least for those of us battered by Brexit, already. Be as important an event.

The point is it is not knowable. Individual investors are unlikely to outsmart the market out there.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by hoops777 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:29 pm

For someone to predict this election will have no effect on the market and that there will be many other events more volatile,is no different than someone trying to time the market.You do not know either way.It is an opinion.
This is not a normal election and nobody knows what might happen in its aftermath.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by TomCat96 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:10 pm

The better way to approach the election uncertainty is:

"What should my Asset Allocation be such that i would be indifferent to purchasing now vs purchasing later?"

If buying now gives you heartburn, and buying later would make you feel better, you probably don't have the right asset allocation. You will surely feel such uncertainty in the future and be confronted with the same question down the line.

How can you possibly stay the course in the long term if your worries toss and turn about constantly?

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by avalpert » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:57 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Tamalak wrote:
hoops777 wrote:I always get a kick out of all the pronouncements about just put it all in now it doesn't matter.You are not allowed to look at world conditions and the economy and have an opinion.We are all lemmings.To hold off investing it all for a few days because we have the craziest election in our history along with what might happen with all the hacking and everything else going on is prudent in my opinion.Thank you.
Every election is the "craziest election in our history", as I recall.
1860
1968

Those 2 at least were truly crazy-- 1968 saw the Tet Offensive, LBJ's withdrawal after New Hampshire, MLK and RFK fall to assassin's bullets, the subsequent riots, the Chicago Democratic convention. 1860 was of course much much worse-- the election of Mr Lincoln guaranteed the secession of the southern states, and the young Republic would begin its greatest test (after, perhaps that winter at Valley Forge?). Maybe 1824 as well? (vague about that part of American history).
1876 - disputed results, less popular man wins, allows the south to usher in the era of segregation which we are still paying for today.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by MIretired » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:52 pm

My take is it is the market disliking uncertainty. In another time, my hunch might have been that either the market is predicting price drops or maybe the market doesn't like the predicted future economic outlook.
But I'll stick with the disliking uncertainty. Which says that investors are selling because they don't like the 'not knowing' part, not the doom and gloom reasons for selling.
And I'd say that anytime I think the market is wrong, I've probably got about a 99% chance of being wrong.
If I think just that the price looks good for bonds or stocks, I think I have better odds of being right. Maybe approaching 50/50. This would be a bet on a return to the mean which is less chaotic than uncertainty bets. But still, in one year's time would probably not amount to much difference, and considering it's maybe 50/50, why not just wait it out and not make ANY bets. May your investing be interesting. :)

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Redcap » Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:08 pm

MIpreRetirey wrote:My take is it is the market disliking uncertainty. In another time, my hunch might have been that either the market is predicting price drops or maybe the market doesn't like the predicted future economic outlook.
But I'll stick with the disliking uncertainty. Which says that investors are selling because they don't like the 'not knowing' part, not the doom and gloom reasons for selling.
And I'd say that anytime I think the market is wrong, I've probably got about a 99% chance of being wrong.
If I think just that the price looks good for bonds or stocks, I think I have better odds of being right. Maybe approaching 50/50. This would be a bet on a return to the mean which is less chaotic than uncertainty bets. But still, in one year's time would probably not amount to much difference, and considering it's maybe 50/50, why not just wait it out and not make ANY bets. May your investing be interesting. :)
Historically, markets hate uncertainty, absolutely.

There seems to be a very balanced response on this thread (e.g. buying now versus after the election is irrelevant 20-30 years from now). Quite true.

So, unless you're a short-term trader, sit back and look at the whole picture:

U.S. Economy
Leading economic indicators show a growing economy, although rate of growth is muted.

Valuation
The stock market is not dirt cheap, but it's not at historic overvaluation either. Based on some more "advanced" valuation models, I would say it's right in line with it's historical average. Other's might disagree which is fine. Even if I'm wrong and they're correct, markets can easily get more expensive (trends tend to continue in the absence of an outside catalyst).

Catalyst
Speaking of which, the Fed may bump rates in December. If they do, who thinks it will be by more than 25bps? Probably nobody. Going to 0.50 in the Fed Funds rate is certainly not a crazy level. They have stated that they are going to be accommodating, so if they do hike, expect it to be dampened with dovish rhetoric.

So why wouldn't stocks continue higher after the current correction? Regardless of tomorrow's outcome, unless you want to time the day-to-day market blips, just get long.

Disclaimer: I'm long stocks through individual issues and various mutual funds.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:36 pm

I removed an off-topic post and several replies regarding the ability of Congress to change tax law and regulations post-election. The discussion was derailing the thread.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by MIretired » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:07 pm

Redcap wrote:
MIpreRetirey wrote:My take is it is the market disliking uncertainty. In another time, my hunch might have been that either the market is predicting price drops or maybe the market doesn't like the predicted future economic outlook.
But I'll stick with the disliking uncertainty. Which says that investors are selling because they don't like the 'not knowing' part, not the doom and gloom reasons for selling.
And I'd say that anytime I think the market is wrong, I've probably got about a 99% chance of being wrong.
If I think just that the price looks good for bonds or stocks, I think I have better odds of being right. Maybe approaching 50/50. This would be a bet on a return to the mean which is less chaotic than uncertainty bets. But still, in one year's time would probably not amount to much difference, and considering it's maybe 50/50, why not just wait it out and not make ANY bets. May your investing be interesting. :)
Historically, markets hate uncertainty, absolutely.

There seems to be a very balanced response on this thread (e.g. buying now versus after the election is irrelevant 20-30 years from now). Quite true.

So, unless you're a short-term trader, sit back and look at the whole picture:

U.S. Economy
Leading economic indicators show a growing economy, although rate of growth is muted.

Valuation
The stock market is not dirt cheap, but it's not at historic overvaluation either. Based on some more "advanced" valuation models, I would say it's right in line with it's historical average. Other's might disagree which is fine. Even if I'm wrong and they're correct, markets can easily get more expensive (trends tend to continue in the absence of an outside catalyst).

Catalyst
Speaking of which, the Fed may bump rates in December. If they do, who thinks it will be by more than 25bps? Probably nobody. Going to 0.50 in the Fed Funds rate is certainly not a crazy level. They have stated that they are going to be accommodating, so if they do hike, expect it to be dampened with dovish rhetoric.

So why wouldn't stocks continue higher after the current correction? Regardless of tomorrow's outcome, unless you want to time the day-to-day market blips, just get long.

Disclaimer: I'm long stocks through individual issues and various mutual funds.
I see my attempt at market logic, other than the uncertainty, is very weak. The measure of odds is laughable.
Your logic, conversely, follows. Lately (probably the 9-day losing streak) I've realized that I became overly biased by the shell shocks of the last 16 years. And that markets can sort of just meander in not too definite a direction without the assistance of some cataclysm. Anything other than a cataclysm is a relief, and it'd be nice if this continues. I don't see anything earthshaking going on with the markets that amounts to much. I just happen to not be focused on how much down has happened.

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Re: Post-election market trend?

Post by iceport » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:46 am

joebh wrote:
iceport wrote:
joebh wrote:I know we don't market time here. And I know predictions are basically worthless.

But does anyone have an idea of where the market might head post-election?
If I were a timer and a predictor, what should I do post-election?

If I had to bet, I'd say that the market will get a nice post-election bump in the range of 3-5% pretty much immediately, with low volatility for a few months, due to the removal of some major uncertainty.
Ha! Removal of uncertainty? Doesn't that depend dramatically on how the election is resolved? Can you not envision an outcome that produces exploding uncertainty?
No.

For good or for very bad, I think it will be very clear where the country is headed once the election is concluded.
I beg to differ.
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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Raryn » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:14 pm

I think the realistic consensus is that no one has any idea.

As the results were coming in yesterday, CNN kept pulling up after hours trading showing massive decreases in the dow/S&P. By the morning, they opened basically flat with yesterday, went down a touch, and are now up overall today.

I think it's too early to make predictions on what will happen, and that the election never has as much effect as we might think it will.

(Brexit is different than a presidential election. That was actually a vote on a clear policy. This was a vote on a million different conflicting *potential* policies).

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Fudgie » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:01 am

:oops:
Last edited by Fudgie on Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Tamalak » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:17 am

Fudgie wrote:
Fudgie wrote:
mickens16 wrote:I recall the same discussions regarding BREXIT and after a few days it was all forgotten.
I took action on Brexit, and have no regrets for having done so. It was a great day to buy.

If one candidate wins (you know which one) there WILL be an emotional overreaction to the downside. I will be buying in taxable on the 9th if that candidate wins.

You can all make fun of me if I'm wrong, and I'll humbly take my lumps. :P
How wrong I was! I went ahead and made the buy anyway, by way of punishment. Cheers!
You weren't wrong. S&P futures were down 5% when Mr. You Know Who was winning - and then promptly recovered the next day.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Kitty Telltales » Thu Nov 10, 2016 2:42 pm

Toons wrote:Time Not Timing.
Put the compounding machine to work.
ASAP :moneybag
On Monday I realized I had a bit left in my Vanguard settlement account. It's been nearly a year since I found Bogleheads and I realize more and more that comments such as yours Toons and words like "staying the course" have had an effect on my years of reluctance, so I kicked this last bit into VTSAX.

Don't know if I could have done that a year ago. You have helped me feel empowered! I'm no longer so afraid of the ups and downs but I'm only looking ahead. Thanks.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Casper » Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:31 pm

mj11711 wrote:I mostly invest in Vanguard mutual Funds (total stock index is my main one) and have some funds available to add to the portfolio. I noticed that in the last few days, its been down every day and am thinking of making the buy today. However, with election day coming up - would it be wise for me to wait until after the election results? Is it likely to go up or down at that point?
So mj11711, what did you end up doing? If you waited until the election, are you now going to wait a little longer? Or will you wait for the next "event"? Maybe the inauguration?

This election and the recent market reaction have just reinforced my belief that no one knows anything and it's probably delusional to think otherwise.

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by Toons » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:52 pm

Kitty Telltales wrote:
Toons wrote:Time Not Timing.
Put the compounding machine to work.
ASAP :moneybag

On Monday I realized I had a bit left in my Vanguard settlement account. It's been nearly a year since I found Bogleheads and I realize more and more that comments such as yours Toons and words like "staying the course" have had an effect on my years of reluctance, so I kicked this last bit into VTSAX.

Don't know if I could have done that a year ago. You have helped me feel empowered! I'm no longer so afraid of the ups and downs but I'm only looking ahead. Thanks.
Excellent!
Thanks :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Post by FillorKill » Thu Nov 10, 2016 6:57 pm

Tamalak wrote:You weren't wrong. S&P futures were down 5% when Mr. You Know Who was winning - and then promptly recovered the next day.
Maybe so but what the mini is doing at 10 pm isn't actionable by 99.9% of Bogleheads who generally access equities via MF and ETF share classes of index funds. For those 99.9% that 5% drop wasn't accessible. If you sold Vanguard's S&P 500 etf into the close on Tuesday you got a price of 196.58 and buying the opening cross on Wednesday got you back in at 194.94. Well below 1% for your trouble, not to mention the risk of being under exposed to equities which could have just as easily opened up 2%. Even if Fudgie would have bagged a 5% round trip it would have been simple luck (and terrible investing strategy).

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