Mid-year investment returns

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What's the return on your portfolio thru June 30?

Poll ended at Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:02 am

Up more than 20%
2
2%
Up more than 20%
2
2%
Up between 10 and 20%
0
No votes
Up between 5 and 10%
0
No votes
Up less than 2%
11
10%
Down less than 2%
13
11%
Down between 2% and 5%
37
32%
Down between 5% and 10%
36
32%
Down between 10% and 20%
13
11%
Down more than 20%
0
No votes
Down more than 20%
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 114

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Ariel
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Mid-year investment returns

Post by Ariel »

So, for those who calculate such things: What's been the return on your overall portfolio through June 30, 2008?

Don't include the amounts of new investments, only the 6-month return on your investments. Also, don't annualize the return; just report your actual 6-month return.
Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994)
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gatorman
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Re: Mid-year investment returns

Post by gatorman »

Ariel wrote:So, for those who calculate such things: What's been the return on your overall portfolio through June 30, 2008?

Don't include the amounts of new investments, only the 6-month return on your investments. Also, don't annualize the return; just report your actual 6-month return.
Down about 6% on a nominal 75/25 allocation.
gatorman
bozo
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Too scared to look

Post by bozo »

Is too scared to look a category?
Joe D
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Location: TN

Post by Joe D »

7.2% YTD.
statsman
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Post by statsman »

Stocks/Bonds: -4.75% YTD (roughly 70/30 first 4 months, 35/65 last 2 months)
Cash: +1.5% YTD

Given that our taxable cash > tax-deferred stocks/bonds, total YTD is -1.2%.
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G12
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Post by G12 »

The next time someone posts a poll early, like was posted last month, asking what Boglehead's midyear returns are I will use it as a sell indicator. Numerous responses indicated it was May, not the end of June, and boy did that come to fruition. Negative portfolio results, I don't know it to a dollar, but much worse than in the May YTD poll. Must be synonymous with don't count your chickens......... :wink:
Elliot
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Post by Elliot »

Down 3%

Target Allocation
50% equities
45% bonds
5% cash

Actual Allocation 7/1/08
47.7% equities
43.3% bonds
9.0% cash
peter71
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Post by peter71 »

Hi All,

I'm not saying that it matters (and I almost didn't vote) but my TIAA Real Estate / TIAA Traditional portfolio has had cashlike (< 2%) positive returns on the year.

All best,
Pete
plake15
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Re: Too scared to look

Post by plake15 »

bozo wrote:Is too scared to look a category?
HAHA...I vote for that also...thats makes two
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Ted Valentine
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Re: Mid-year investment returns

Post by Ted Valentine »

Ariel wrote: Don't include the amounts of new investments, only the 6-month return on your investments. Also, don't annualize the return; just report your actual 6-month return.
I voted according to your instructions (-5% to -10%).

However, I went ahead and did a quick and dirty XIRR with new contributions and came up with an annualized -16.3% return YTD. My balance is pretty much the same now as it was 12/31/07. Its as if the last 6 months of work and contributions never happened.

Thanks for cheering me up. :x
Although our intellect always longs for clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty fascinating.
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jh
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Post by jh »

...
Last edited by jh on Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nowizard
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Down 6.2%

Post by Nowizard »

Down 6.2%
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fishnskiguy
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Post by fishnskiguy »

Up .9%. Our 20/80 stock/bond mix, coupled with a healthy chunk of TIPS, PCRIX and VG's PM&M fund kept us in the black-barely.

Chris
Trident D-5 SLBM- "When you care enough to send the very best."
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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri »

A good benchmark for a 60% stock and 40% bond porfolio is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Investor Shares (VBINX). It was down about 6.1% throught June 30. If you are a balanced investor, and you are down 5% or less, you are doing fairly well.

Rick Ferri
Puakinekine
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Post by Puakinekine »

Up .9%. Our 20/80 stock/bond mix, coupled with a healthy chunk of TIPS, PCRIX and VG's PM&M fund kept us in the black-barely.
Hmm, same asset allocation, but without PCRIX and Vanguards PM&M fund, up a rousing .3%. Good thing we kept our day jobs!

Good luck everyone, this is not easy.
schwarm
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Post by schwarm »

Our portfolio is cobbled together mostly through our 401k plans.

~60/40 stocks/bonds, E/R 0.38%, off about 4.2% for the year.
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ruralavalon
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Post by ruralavalon »

60/40 equity/bond allocation.
Equity mutual funds -7.11%.
Treasury strips +2.4%.
Overall -5.9%
schwarm
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Post by schwarm »

Rick Ferri wrote:A good benchmark for a 60% stock and 40% bond porfolio is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Investor Shares (VBINX). It was down about 6.1% throught June 30. If you are a balanced investor, and you are down 5% or less, you are doing fairly well.

Rick Ferri
Another one is perhaps IFA'a indexfolios; they seem to keep them constantly updated. Their "50" portfolio looks like it is 60/40 stock/bonds, and its off 6.55% for the year.

Always good to have these reference points when convincing the spouse to "stay the course".
retired at 48
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Post by retired at 48 »

Since I'm 43% Energy funds, for which several Bogleheads have :roll: , and 45% fixed income overall (all short term), it would be unfair to post my results. :oops: But suffice it to say it was a gain.

However, I lose sleep at night trying to determine when to exit energy :!:

R48
bozo
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Post by bozo »

Vanguard stuff down just shy of 7%. CDs up about 5.75%. A bit more in Vanguard than in CDs, but not much. Vanguard is about 63/47 when you average out mine and my wife's. Wife's 401K is up due to employer match (not a fair comparison), my SEP-IRA is down 10% (overweight financials).

Go figure. I lost track a long time ago. My best guess is about down 2.5% total for the year. I can live with that.
bozo
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Post by bozo »

retired at 48 wrote:Since I'm 43% Energy funds, for which several Bogleheads have :roll: , and 45% fixed income overall (all short term), it would be unfair to post my results. :oops: But suffice it to say it was a gain.

However, I lose sleep at night trying to determine when to exit energy :!:

R48
Hedge and buy a bit of DUG. Stay long in energy (as we are) but cover your bet.

Just a thought.
schwarm
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Post by schwarm »

bozo wrote:Vanguard stuff down just shy of 7%. CDs up about 5.75%. A bit more in Vanguard than in CDs, but not much. Vanguard is about 63/47 when you average out mine and my wife's. Wife's 401K is up due to employer match (not a fair comparison), my SEP-IRA is down 10% (overweight financials).

Go figure. I lost track a long time ago. My best guess is about down 2.5% total for the year. I can live with that.
1) 5.75 in six months? :shock:

2) is 63/47 a typo or are you buying on margin?
schwarm
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Post by schwarm »

retired at 48 wrote:Since I'm 43% Energy funds, for which several Bogleheads have :roll: , and 45% fixed income overall (all short term), it would be unfair to post my results. :oops: But suffice it to say it was a gain.

However, I lose sleep at night trying to determine when to exit energy :!:

R48
I think I see your vote up there. :wink:
gassert
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Post by gassert »

I havent calculated my returns for the last 6 mos, year or 5 yrs.

removed - personal attack - mod jeff aka chuck D
retired at 48
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Post by retired at 48 »

schwarm wrote:
retired at 48 wrote:Since I'm 43% Energy funds, for which several Bogleheads have :roll: , and 45% fixed income overall (all short term), it would be unfair to post my results. :oops: But suffice it to say it was a gain.

However, I lose sleep at night trying to determine when to exit energy :!:

R48
I think I see your vote up there. :wink:
No. I didn't vote....R48
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ken250
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Post by ken250 »

I'm down about 5% YTD.

I'm taking a bath on Financials, although REITs have helped. Bonds, TIPS, and REITs have done their job. Just added a global allocation fund to the mix, hoping it'll stabilize things a bit.

It's really good we can laugh at times like these, sure beats jumping out of the 14th floor window.

:sharebeer
unclemick
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Post by unclemick »

Hmmm - Target Retirement 2015 is down 6.51% so that should be the one I should count.

A tad under 5% down cause of a few individual stocks doing well and dividends I haven't spent - I seem to be exhibiting an excessive amount of chickenheartedness this year.

Need to buck up and spend some more cause I'm not getting any younger.

heh heh heh - :wink:
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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri »

schwarm wrote:
Rick Ferri wrote:A good benchmark for a 60% stock and 40% bond portfolio is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Investor Shares (VBINX). It was down about 6.1% through June 30. If you are a balanced investor, and you are down 5% or less, you are doing fairly well.

Rick Ferri
Another one is perhaps IFA'a indexfolios; they seem to keep them constantly updated. Their "50" portfolio looks like it is 60/40 stock/bonds, and its off 6.55% for the year.

Always good to have these reference points when convincing the spouse to "stay the course".
I suppose, if you have a portfolio of 100% DFA funds that those hokey IFA indexes would be okay since that is all the indexes are made up of just DFA funds (an some pretty shaky patchwork before the funds were created). IFA simply takes the performance of the very DFA funds they invest in and call the funds indexes!

Hard to believe, I know. But, from a marketing perspective, it is hard for IFA to underperform their benchmark when their portfolios and the benchmarks are exactly the same! I believe IFA is trying to convince us that "they are the benchmark" - gimme a break!

Rick Ferri

PS. IMO, for an investment advisor to advertise long-term performance numbers that they did not earn is bad for the whole investment management business, including IFA. It takes away credibility. Those IFA numbers are not real actual account performance after fees. They are created from back-tests. They are fabrications of wishful thinking. If Jack Bogle were an investment advisor he would certainly not be marketing that way.

Here is a recent interview I just did in InvestmentNews about companies that promote hypothetical results in their marketing material. This growing habit by ETF managers and by several investment managers is a disgrace to the industry:

ETF hypothetical returns criticized
New funds explosion raises issue of back-testing
by By Dan Jamieson, June 30, 2008
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grabiner
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90% stock, down about 9%

Post by grabiner »

My only stock fund which isn't down about 11% for the year is REIT Index. Add 11% down on non-REIT stock (80%), 3% down on real estate (10%), and 2% up on bonds (10%), and I get about a 9% loss for the year.
Wiki David Grabiner
Easy Rhino
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Post by Easy Rhino »

hrm, MS Money is telling me my my portfolio is down just over 3% this half-year.

But I'm about 90% in stocks, so that doesn't seem right at all. I may have blundered into some accidentally brilliant account transfers and AA adjustments in January while consolidating accounts... but I don't think it would have been that effective.
schwarm
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Post by schwarm »

Rick Ferri wrote:
I suppose, if you have a portfolio of 100% DFA funds that those hokey IFA indexes would be okay since that is all the indexes are made up of just DFA funds (an some pretty shaky patchwork before the funds were created). IFA simply takes the performance of the very DFA funds they invest in and call the funds indexes!

Hard to believe, I know. But, from a marketing perspective, it is hard for IFA to underperform their benchmark when their portfolios and the benchmarks are exactly the same! I believe IFA is trying to convince us that "they are the benchmark" - gimme a break!

Rick Ferri

PS. IMO, for an investment advisor to advertise long-term performance numbers that they did not earn is bad for the whole investment management business, including IFA. It takes away credibility. Those IFA numbers are not real actual account performance after fees. They are created from back-tests. They are fabrications of wishful thinking. If Jack Bogle were an investment advisor he would certainly not be marketing that way.
It seemed like a reasonable comparison for current returns with a given stock/bond ratio, and they have international equities and REITs included in the asset allocation.

It would be good if they specified at least whether or not the portfolios were actually investable for historical returns. Presumably they were for the last several years, but 50 or 80 years ago, obviously not.
gkaplan
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Post by gkaplan »

As of 06/30/2008, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is –4.67%. My one-year rate of return is –2.43%. My three-year rate of return is 8.50%.

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Admiral Shares (5.81%). My one-year rate of return is 16.62%. My rate of return for this fund since its inception (in other words, since I converted from the Investor Shares class) is 6.42%.

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Value Index Fund Investor Shares (-14.56%). My one-year rate of return is –20.29%. My three-year rate of return for this fund is 2.24%.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

71.86%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD Return, -2.97%)
28.14%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD Return, -1.42%)

My target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. The seventy-two percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
24%: Foreign Developed Markets (Large)
12%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
28%: Fixed Income

As of 06/30/2008, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 65/35, Equity/Fixed Income.

My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 34/31.

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 06/30/2008) are as follows.

10.71%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
10.80%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
12.74%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
19.88%: Foreign Developed Markets – Large (9%, TSP I Fund; 10.87%, VDMIX)*
11.00%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
34.90%: Fixed Income (%, TSP G Fund;, Vanguard TIPS Fund)**

* Foreign Developed Markets does not equal 19.88% because of rounding.

**Total allocation does not equal 100% because of rounding.
Gordon
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Dale_G
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Post by Dale_G »

I am down 5% - dead on considering my 37.5% domestic equities, 12.5% International equities and 50% bonds.

To put it in perspective, the 5% represents a decent Ferrari plus a nice Porsche. But I don't need three cars anyway, so I sleep like a baby.

Dale
Volatility is my friend
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White Coat Investor
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Post by White Coat Investor »

In case you're wondering how another group of people who track their returns is doing, you can check out the TSPtalk.com guys (a bunch of mostly market timers who invest with the Fed's TSP)


http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_062708.pdf

This list through 6/27 shows 119 people.

a best of 7.81%
a worst of -21.83%
a median of -6%.

48/119 beat the "know-nothing" 60/40 20% in each fund which lost 5.48%. 8/119 are beating the cash-equivalent G fund return of 1.79%. 14/119 are doing worse than the worst of the TSP funds (C fund (low cost S&P 500 index) with -12.01%.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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runthetrails
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Post by runthetrails »

Down 6.7% as of today... roughly 75% equities / 25% fixed.

I sure wish I had more to drop into taxable investing this month, but we've chosen to increase the emergency fund from 3 months to 6 months worth of expenses, just in case.
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Jake46
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Post by Jake46 »

Down 6.3% on a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.
bozo
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Post by bozo »

schwarm wrote:
bozo wrote:Vanguard stuff down just shy of 7%. CDs up about 5.75%. A bit more in Vanguard than in CDs, but not much. Vanguard is about 63/47 when you average out mine and my wife's. Wife's 401K is up due to employer match (not a fair comparison), my SEP-IRA is down 10% (overweight financials).

Go figure. I lost track a long time ago. My best guess is about down 2.5% total for the year. I can live with that.
1) 5.75 in six months? :shock:

2) is 63/47 a typo or are you buying on margin?
Oops, 5.75% annually, so divide that in half. 63% stocks/37% bonds, it was a typo. Bottom line: my CDs plus Vanguard started the year at about $1.25 million, now about $1.12 million, give or take. Been through worse.
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Sbashore
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Post by Sbashore »

Down 6.57. Allocation is 68 percent equity, 24 bonds, 8 cash.
Steve | Semper Fi
sambuca08
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Post by sambuca08 »

I didn't realize that posting my results would move this back up in relevance. 6 mo returns are meaningless in the current market, and I'm sorry this post moved up, because I feel guilty that my currency and non-asset owning bet is offsetting my rational portfolio.
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Ariel
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Post by Ariel »

sambuca08 wrote:I didn't realize that posting my results would move this back up in relevance. 6 mo returns are meaningless in the current market, and I'm sorry this post moved up, because I feel guilty that my currency and non-asset owning bet is offsetting my rational portfolio.
Answering the poll didn't 'bump' this thread. Perhaps the previous post did just before you wrote your message.

You want some longer term perspective? How about this, then? Over the past 9.5 years, the total stock market fund VTMSX has underperformed the prime money market fund by 0.8% per year, and 7.3% cumulative.

Ouch!!
Do what you will, the capital is at hazard ... - Justice Samuel Putnam (1830), as quoted by John Bogle (1994)
RTR2006
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Post by RTR2006 »

Down 4.77% (AA is roughly 50:50) to June 30. Let's not even talk about the haircut I took today...

:cry:

RTR
Last edited by RTR2006 on Wed Jul 02, 2008 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
rsc601
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Post by rsc601 »

Down 9.5% on 85/15 stock/bond.
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