Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

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Bogle_Feet
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Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

Post by Bogle_Feet » Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:00 pm

I know that nobody can consistently guess the direction of the markets but I've been keeping my eye on this Tom McClellan guy since he seemed to get the Aug 2015 to Feb 2016 slump right if you consider 15% an "ugly decline".

8/20/2015 He sees stocks set up for ugly decline. He predicts an "ugly decline” lasting into early 2016. Be ready to flee, as soon as this week.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market ... 2015-08-17

So back on July 30th he predicted the best odds for a pullback in September lasting into mid-October. He would then use the period leading up to the election in late October as a buying opportunity. We'll see how this pans out.
http://www.financialsense.com/financial ... tion-cycle

Stonebr
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Re: Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

Post by Stonebr » Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:41 pm

Sorry, never heard of him.

I still try to follow the Elves on WSW. :wink: Classic Taylor posting from 15 years ago...

http://socialize.morningstar.com/newsoc ... 45750.aspx
"have more than thou showest, | speak less than thou knowest" -- The Fool in King Lear

heyyou
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Re: Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

Post by heyyou » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:11 pm

Who knows? Who cares? My worst investment was making some quick easy money on a small investment, then thinking that I could repeat that with a 10x larger investment, but the market then moved the opposite direction.

Elaine Garzarelli is the poster person for correctly forecasting a market crash as a stock analyst, then failing to forecast the next big one while managing her mutual fund.

Buying and holding index funds for thirty years has worked well. I no longer care what the market does this week, this month, or this year, knowing that two decades from now, it just won't matter. What did you buy in the summer of 1996 that is substantially affected by today's price changes? Mr. McClellan's forecasts are not actionable for my portfolio, regardless of his historical or future accuracy.

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roymeo
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Re: Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

Post by roymeo » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:32 pm

I did, but the judge has strongly suggested I stop.
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. | -- "Libra", Don DeLillo

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Johnnie
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Re: Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

Post by Johnnie » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:55 pm

Stonebr wrote:Sorry, never heard of him.

I still try to follow the Elves on WSW. :wink: Classic Taylor posting from 15 years ago...

http://socialize.morningstar.com/newsoc ... 45750.aspx
Ah, Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, I miss his comforting presence. Never more than the crash of 1987, when I'll never forget what he said in the monologue we eagerly awaited:

“Let’s start with what’s really important tonight: It’s just your money, not your life. Everyone who really loved you a week ago still loves you tonight, and that’s a heckuva lot more important than the numbers on a brokerage statement. The robins will still sing, crocuses will bloom, babies will gurgle, and puppies will curl up in your lap and drift happily to sleep, even when the stock market goes temporarily insane.

“(And now that that’s all properly in perspective, let me say, Ouch! and Eek! and Medic!)”
"I know nothing."

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bottlecap
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Re: Anyone follow Tom McClellan?

Post by bottlecap » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:53 am

If he keeps predicting declines, he'll be right one of these times. And then his future advice will be worth it's weight in gold....

JT

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