madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2016 returns, 2016 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   June    YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2016    2016    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX              0.24%   3.76%  13.88%  11.96%   7.21%   4.97%
Sheltered Sam      1.76%   7.20%  10.58%   8.91%   6.51%   7.26%
Hot Hands         -5.55%  -5.49%  10.67%   8.83%   4.98%  10.73%
                  
Newsletter G      -0.39%   1.90%  13.08%  10.52%   7.50%   9.10%
Newsletter G-IND   0.57%   5.10%  12.53%  10.48%   7.41%   6.30%
s&d                0.76%   4.31%   8.17%   7.26%   6.22%   7.08%
3 fund             0.23%   2.90%   7.87%   7.06%   5.93%   5.41%
LS G               0.20%   3.03%   8.32%   7.37%   5.42%   4.85%

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Wellington         0.78%   5.01%   9.66%   9.10%   7.41%   7.24%
Newsletter CG     -0.49%   2.00%  11.73%  10.06%   7.06%   7.54%
coffeehouse        1.54%   5.67%   8.10%   7.64%   6.57%   6.98%
STAR              -0.08%   2.41%   7.62%   7.42%   5.99%   6.31%
LS MG              0.64%   3.74%   7.08%   6.63%   5.39%   5.03%
                  
Wellesley          2.17%   7.62%   7.46%   8.32%   7.38%   6.92%
Newsletter Inc     0.39%   3.00%   9.71%   9.18%   6.38%   5.68%
LS CG              1.07%   4.44%   5.76%   5.63%   5.03%   4.92%
                  
madsinger          1.93%   7.01%   7.63%   6.50%   5.96%   
madsinger PP       3.81%  10.69%            
Last edited by madsinger on Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by madsinger »

Roller coaster month! By the end of the month, the return numbers seem relatively normal, but it was quite a ride during the month.

US stocks in the 0% to 1% range for the month. Internationals range from -4.4% in Europe Fund to +5.0% in Emerging Markets with the Vanguard Total International coming in down -1% for the month. Total Bond up 1.9%.

Some of the fringes did very well this month...Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining up +17% for the month, and up over 77% YTD! REITs strong again, up +6.9% for the month, and +13.4% YTD. Gold (as measured by my the IAU ETF) was up +8.9% for the month and +24.7% YTD. Long Bonds (as measured by Vangaurd's VUSUX fund) up +6.5% for the month and over 15% for the year.

The madsinger permanent portfolio had another strong month due to returns in gold and long bonds:

Code: Select all

          STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  -4.97%    5.24%    0.09%   5.38%    1.25%
February -0.18%    3.20%    0.08%  11.22%    3.47%
March     6.72%    0.06%    0.09%  -0.92%    1.45%
April     0.37%   -0.62%    0.09%   5.05%    1.27%
May       1.75%    0.77%    0.10%  -6.09%   -0.97%
June      0.22%    6.50%    0.08%   8.87%    3.83%
               
YTD       3.61%   16.36%    0.53%  24.73%   10.69%
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cinghiale
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by cinghiale »

Thanks once again, Brad. Always grateful to see where Wellesley Income sits in relation to other popular benchmarks, models, and formulae.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by highercall »

Thanks again for posting. This sounds like a broken record but once again, wellington and wellesley are hard to beat.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by jay22 »

Madslinger, any particular reason why you use long bonds instead of intermediate/short ones?
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by madsinger »

jay22 wrote:Madslinger, any particular reason why you use long bonds instead of intermediate/short ones?
For the "permanent portfolio" portion of my investments, I'm following the ideas laid out originally by Harry Browne and more recently written about by Craig Rowland in the book: "The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne's Long-Term Investment Strategy". The idea is to have four asset classes that have very low correlation between them and that react differently to different market conditions. The basic idea is stocks, long bonds, cash, and gold.

-Brad.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by madsinger »

updated chart with Newsletter returns included.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by White Coat Investor »

First time I recall seeing the Hot Hands portfolio doing so lame. I guess it works until it doesn't.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by Mel Lindauer »

White Coat Investor wrote:First time I recall seeing the Hot Hands portfolio doing so lame. I guess it works until it doesn't.
Yep, that's the way it goes with most of these "systems" for beating the market.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by triceratop »

Perhaps we need a "Hotter Hands" portfolio consisting of the previous month's winner.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by Levett »

"This sounds like a broken record but once again, wellington and wellesley are hard to beat."

Yep--especially on a risk-adjusted basis.

I believe the two funds are regarded as "lucky"--I guess on a long term basis.

I know their long term investors feel quite content (theory notwithstanding :wink: ).

Lev
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by LadyGeek »

The wiki has been updated: Madsinger monthly reports
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad,… I have been preaching Wellington and Wellesley for many many years. Your results again support my correct choice. Just hold them in tax deferred as I do. Good returns and smooth ride along the way….. hardly anything else needed.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by gkaplan »

As of June 30, 2016, my year-to-date return is 3.01%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are 5.49%, -1.80%, 4.56%, 4.07%, and 4.87%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of 7.81%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 9.75%, -8.33%, -0.55%, and -2.45 %, respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of -4.52%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are -8.57%, -10.59%, 3.36%, and 1.79%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
14.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
14.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of June 30, 2016, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

10.07%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
10.09%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
06.05%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
05.98%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
13.99%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
14.50%: Foreign Markets Large and Small – Emerging (VEMAX)
05.74%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
30.20%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)
03.38%: Fixed Income – Credit Union Money Market Fund
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2016)

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

triceratop wrote:Perhaps we need a "Hotter Hands" portfolio consisting of the previous month's winner.
d(hotter hands)/dt
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