Brexit - article/source request - please

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Barefootgirl
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Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Barefootgirl » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:23 am

Can anyone recommend a least emotional/most realistic/least politicized source for an analysis of the fall out from Brexit?

Maybe a link to a respected blogger or publication? I realize even recommendations will come with their own bias, but I need to start somewhere - most of what I am reading now seems...clouded.

Thanks
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Rob5TCP
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Rob5TCP » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:35 am

This one from Vanguard is a good article to start with:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... t-l-062016

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grayfox
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by grayfox » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:43 am

No one knows what will happen. Nobody has a crystal ball.

Supposed experts and economists will make all kinds of predictions about what will happen. But they have no better forecasting ability than anybody else.
Sic transit gloria mundi. [STGM]

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LAlearning
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by LAlearning » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:47 am

why?

i didnt even hit a re-balancing band....
I know nothing!

jjface
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by jjface » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:57 am

The best thing to do is to ignore it.

HomoLudens
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:19 pm

Barefootgirl wrote:Can anyone recommend a least emotional/most realistic/least politicized source for an analysis of the fall out from Brexit?

Maybe a link to a respected blogger or publication? I realize even recommendations will come with their own bias, but I need to start somewhere - most of what I am reading now seems...clouded.

Thanks
It's too early to tell. If you want to know something about the reasons for Brexit rather than the consequences from it, this article might help:http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/th ... of-brexit/
It will help if you know something about modern British history, but even if you don't you will grasp the gist of the argument.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:47 pm

Considering the surprise/shock of the outcome of the vote by so many "experts", I'm not so sure I would be putting any stock in any "expert" that isn't saying, "We simply don't know the future, yet."

I have more respect for those "experts" who can voice that simple answer, instead of the ones rolling out some projections of the future.

Now, after all this is over, there will be a few "experts" who hit a home run with their predictions.

Problem is, which "expert" do you pick NOW?

Broken Man 1999
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livesoft
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by livesoft » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:00 pm

Schwab has a short one too:
Schwab: After the Brexit Vote: What Lies Ahead for Markets?
Bottom line: More uncertainty means slow slogging going forward.
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HomoLudens
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:04 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:Considering the surprise/shock of the outcome of the vote by so many "experts", I'm not so sure I would be putting any stock in any "expert" that isn't saying, "We simply don't know the future, yet."

I have more respect for those "experts" who can voice that simple answer, instead of the ones rolling out some projections of the future.

Now, after all this is over, there will be a few "experts" who hit a home run with their predictions.

Problem is, which "expert" do you pick NOW?

Broken Man 1999
Simple answer: don't trust the experts at least in this case. The Brexit is a complicated process with a lot of unintended consequences that cannot be known, quantified and predicted in advance. There will be secondary and tertiary effects. We will learn them along the way. Brexit will unfold in a piecemeal fashion. The people have spoken. Now the elites will have to negotiate the terms. I seriously doubt that "Leave" British politicians, Boris Johnson in particular, take their pre-referendumclaims about the EU seriously. Persuasive politics? Yes. But the results is already known, it's time to negotiate a deal, renege on lofty promises, and suffer the consequences. So we will see, I am sure the experts will make quite a few wrong calls. But that's the occupational disease in these circles.
Last edited by HomoLudens on Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

abyan
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by abyan » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:12 pm

I found this article interesting, and scary:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brexit-leav ... -so-scary/

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Toons
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Toons » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:14 pm

jjface wrote:The best thing to do is to ignore it.

Perfect :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

HomoLudens
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:25 pm

abyan wrote:I found this article interesting, and scary:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brexit-leav ... -so-scary/
I don't want to argue. I will simply point out that the vast majority of articles written by individuals employed by the financial industry are designed to generate business for them. All right, let's assume that I am a cynic. This article, in particular, makes claims about the direction of the market: it's negative. It doesn't , and cannot really, make a claim about the magnitude of the expected change. I am sure most consumers of these articles will be interested to know not the answer to the questions: "Is it bad?" ( somehow they know the answer), but rather "How bad it is?" ( and these articles don't answer these questions). In these types of articles, it's very easy to cobble evidence that supports the author's thesis. In science parlance that's called "verificationism": you compile evidence that support your hypothesis, but avoid talking about evidence that contradicts it. It's nothing wrong to be an attorney of one's own thesis, but it means that the author will omit a great deal of contradicting evidence. I am talking about these issues in principle. There is a demand for scary news right now and I am sure there will be no shortage of people who will satisfy it. Personally, I intend to pay attention to the news and read the scary news with a skeptical eye. The great philosopher Hegel once said "The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk" : meaning that we can now the past, but be hesitant about our ability to prognosticate the future.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Rob5TCP
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Rob5TCP » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:43 pm

Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:47 pm

Rob5TCP wrote:Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html
The referendums will continue until the people get it right.

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whodidntante
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:53 pm

Barefootgirl wrote:Can anyone recommend a least emotional/most realistic/least politicized source for an analysis of the fall out from Brexit?

Maybe a link to a respected blogger or publication? I realize even recommendations will come with their own bias, but I need to start somewhere - most of what I am reading now seems...clouded.

Thanks
"Analysis of the fallout" is going to include some measure of predictions, and since economics and markets are uncertain, those predictions will mostly be wrong. If you notice, when Janet Yellen speaks, she will inject some version of "the economic outlook remains uncertain" in what she says. And if she and the FOMC can't predict the economy under more normal conditions, I basically don't care about a blogger's prediction of Brexit fallout.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by KlangFool » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:02 pm

OP,

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/what- ... eans-world

I subscribes to the above web site. The above article might be free.

KlangFool

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Barefootgirl
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Barefootgirl » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:04 pm

When I can find them, I tend to read a mix of assessments from writers generally considered to be sharp and reliable, throw away any outliers and then try to focus on where the convergence lies.

Nevertheless, Ross Perot would have been considered an outlier in 1992 - with his predictions on NAFTA. So, I see some irony there...of course, you have to also factor in the time frame...

BFG
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Intens
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Intens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:17 pm

Rob5TCP wrote:Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html
Some of the regrets are truly hilarious.
For example, the government of Cornwall seeking guarantees that it will continue to receive the same amount of "funding" from the UK as from the EU.
:twisted:

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:19 pm

Barefootgirl wrote:When I can find them, I tend to read a mix of assessments from writers generally considered to be sharp and reliable, throw away any outliers and then try to focus on where the convergence lies.

Nevertheless, Ross Perot would have been considered an outlier in 1992 - with his predictions on NAFTA. So, I see some irony there...of course, you have to also factor in the time frame...

BFG
If you want to read a really serious, yet accessible, source about Europe, I strongly recommend late Tony Judt's book "Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945". That's the best history of modern Europe, nothing comes even close. In Europe, past is far more consequential than it is here. You have to understand it if you want to understand the future. No source of market predictions, of course, but history does help in learning about finance.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

HomoLudens
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:20 pm

Intens wrote:
Rob5TCP wrote:Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html
Some of the regrets are truly hilarious.
For example, the government of Cornwall seeking guarantees that it will continue to receive the same amount of "funding" from the UK as from the EU.
:twisted:

The government of Cornwall doesn't have much of a leverage at this point, does it? Market timing is frowned upon, but political timing occasionally works. Not in the case though.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

Tamales
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Tamales » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:17 pm

FWIW, CNBC is having a BRexit special tonight (7PM eastern time apparently)

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by rgs92 » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:30 pm

Wasn't Asia/China imploding the huge issue last September and January in those big corrections?
Wasn't the collapse of oil prices (meaning a huuuge recession on the horizon and no growth for as far as the eye could see) the other big issue a year or so ago?
Don't forget terrorism and the rise of Trump...
Remember some news a few months ago that North Korea did a nuclear test and the markets sunk the next day? I bet nobody remembers that one.
Now it's Brexit.
It's always the news of the last week or so that is the big change where things will never be the same.
A year from now (probably sooner) this will be stale news.
The world and the economy churn on an on; the roads are full of traffic with people going to work and shopping, and so it goes.
It's the news media's job to be as melodramatic as possible. Don't get caught up in it.

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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:30 pm

Several articles on Brexit here: http://www.marketminder.com/default.aspx

The site is run by investor Ken Fisher's firm... yeah, I know lots of potential for conflict of interest there, but I usually find the articles on this site more fact-filled than most media accounts. Not saying it isn't biased, but I find their articles generally have an ignore the noise theme and debunk a lot of the garbage purveyed daily by the usual media outlets.
Trade the news and you will lose.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by pkcrafter » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:27 pm

Barefootgirl wrote:Can anyone recommend a least emotional/most realistic/least politicized source for an analysis of the fall out from Brexit?

Maybe a link to a respected blogger or publication? I realize even recommendations will come with their own bias, but I need to start somewhere - most of what I am reading now seems...clouded.

Thanks
Of course it's clouded. This is new stuff and everyone has something to say, but no one can give you anything you can use. If you found someone who's analysis seems right, what will you do with it? If it seems right, is it, or does it just align with your own thoughts or what you expect to hear? I suggest you keep your distance and don't make moves just to do something. That would be an emotional response to satisfy your nervousness.

This article might give you the perspective you really need.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/06 ... -opinions/

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:41 pm

HomoLudens wrote:
Intens wrote:
Rob5TCP wrote:Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html
Some of the regrets are truly hilarious.
For example, the government of Cornwall seeking guarantees that it will continue to receive the same amount of "funding" from the UK as from the EU.
:twisted:

The government of Cornwall doesn't have much of a leverage at this point, does it? Market timing is frowned upon, but political timing occasionally works. Not in the case though.
Cornwall is the poorest county in England. It voted heavily for Brexit.

The stereotype of the Cornish as dumb westcountrymen, inbred and with 2 heads, alas is getting confirmation.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Whakamole » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:44 pm

Rob5TCP wrote:Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html
Among the signees of the petition are 36,000 people from Vatican City (with a population of under 900) and 22,000 from North Korea (not quite sure how they used the Internet):
http://www.vocativ.com/333775/petition- ... ignatures/

I'd say there is a good chance that some pranksters are having a bit of fun.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sun Jun 26, 2016 4:12 pm

Barefootgirl wrote:Can anyone recommend a least emotional/most realistic/least politicized source for an analysis of the fall out from Brexit?

Maybe a link to a respected blogger or publication? I realize even recommendations will come with their own bias, but I need to start somewhere - most of what I am reading now seems...clouded.

Thanks
I'm assuming you're concerned about the effects on your portfolio (rather than employment in Britain/E.U., etc). If that's the case that you're concerned how this will affect your investments, then how about this for analysis:

All information is known by all market participants at the same time. All information has been taken into consideration by all market participants and their collective judgements have settled onto a price that the market is worth. This will continue to change as either new information becomes available or consensus changes regarding previous information.

Therefore, the collective wisdom of the market tells you at any given moment what is the impact of Brexit. Of course everyone could be wrong, but we won't know that until the future arrives. In the meantime, the decline in the market may be due to the fear of decreasing fundamentals (ending of trade free zones to be replaced with tariffs and higher trading costs could result in lower earnings), fear of other exits (just read in the paper today about something called, "Frexit". Can you guess what that is?), or any other fears. The market has discounted foreign stocks due to perceived risk.

Those willing to take that risk and continue buying international may profit (eventually) from buying at present "on discount". If or when that happens is unknown and why investing involves uncertainty.

These opinions above don't sell newsletters or make for good headlines on CNBC and therefore won't generate much ad revenue.

Stay the course (assuming you set a course to begin with). If not, set a course now and stick to it.
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bstevlin
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by bstevlin » Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:27 pm

Try the Financial Times and the Economist. You can access them online at Arts and Letters daily. Charlie Rose had a superb discussion Friday evening with four different views by Brit pols, economists, and writers. Each guest presented a compelling view of their position. I think a rebroadcast Monday will be shown on PBS.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by Fallible » Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:09 pm

bstevlin wrote:Try the Financial Times and the Economist. You can access them online at Arts and Letters daily. Charlie Rose had a superb discussion Friday evening with four different views by Brit pols, economists, and writers. Each guest presented a compelling view of their position. I think a rebroadcast Monday will be shown on PBS.
I caught part of that and agree the varying viewpoints expressed by many in one sitting were very valuable (not unlike this forum :happy ). It reminded me of some shows he had just before the '08 crisis, where top economists, Wall Streeters, academics, and financial columnists would gather to discuss what lay ahead for the economy. I remember only Nouriel Roubini coming closest to what was about to happen.

Also possibly helpful for the OP is a reading list in a column by Jason Zweig. It was written in 2014, but these sources probably are among the best for any monumental event such as Brexit. (Disclosure: the Bogleheads and Bill Bernstein are included.)
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2014/0 ... to-follow/
John Bogle on his often bumpy road to low-cost indexing: "When a door closes, if you look long enough and hard enough, if you're strong enough, you'll find a window that opens."

MIretired
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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by MIretired » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:39 am

I found the AM radio dial had some talkies going, as it does on weekend shows.
I feel the opinions will still be formulating for a while; so the brevity of many opinions so far are not so solidly hype yet, but quite individually honest.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by MGBGTV8 » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:26 pm

Consider that the markets may be reacting to uncertainty rather than any specific potential outcome.

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Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Post by magneto » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:58 pm

The UK media is full of unhelpful inflammatory and contradictory language about racism or xenophobia.

My own personal view from here in the UK, drawing on forum discussions, etc :-

Tony Benn (Labour then traditionally anti-EU) arguably expressed it best a decade or more ago.
"In the UK you have a government it listens to you and if it screws up it gets booted out".
He became anti EU as he gradually realised that the intention was to create an edifice that would not be bothered by such a tiresome construct.

We are talking about the inability to ‘kick the rascals out’, familiar to US citizens.

The democratic deficit, the reluctance of the Euro State to listen and respond to the electorate, who did not vote for this behemoth construct, and feel helpless as a result to influence the direction of travel.

It could and should have been oh so much bettter!

Many who voted Brexit (and possibly some of the Brexiteer leaders) did not expect to win. They voted Brexit as a protest against their helplessness and the deaf ears of the ‘establishment’.

Could things change ?
The more one ponders, the less certain the conclusion that Brexit will happen. There are so many problematic ramifications!

Say Theresa May becomes the next Conservative leader?
As a Eurosceptic but not a Brexiteer, she might be able to get less intransigence from the Eurocrats, with the UK Referendum results very much in their minds, and the threat of populist movements in other EU countries moving in an Exit direction?

That might, just might, open up the way for a second referendum with new, more reasonable and democratic, terms on the table.
But many in the EU establishment seem intent on playing hard-ball !
The message hasn't got through, or if it has, it is found unpalatable.

Uncertain times.

Have posted separately today, about the curious effects on an internationally diversified portfolio, from a UK investor standpoint.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=194109
'There is a tide in the affairs of men ...', Brutus (Market Timer)

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