don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

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don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:47 am

Dear All

If you had a need to buy pounds sterling (GBP ie £) today you should probably avoid doing so.

Most of the banks have restricted trading and are not guaranteeing execution to their clients. Prices on the screen may not be prices achieved.

This would also be the case for funds denominated in GBP (equity or bond funds, etc.). Market liquidity is very low as the banks are running 24 hour shifts until Friday and are avoiding taking risks by acting as intermediaries. The Bank of England has supplied large amounts of additional pounds into the system in case of bank runs, and workers were seen queuing up yesterday to buy holiday Euros and Dollars.

The cause is political- the British Exit referendum "Brexit" from the European Union. About 45 million people have registered to vote on a ballot with only one question.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... te-June-23 is what the ballot looks like

The polls are extremely close, 1-2 per cent. apart between the 2 sides, with c. 10% undecided. So it's really impossible to call it-- events like a gunman in a German movie theatre this afternoon (he's now dead, 25 individuals treated for tear gas related injuries) could have an impact (increasing fear of terror activities by EU migrants to the UK).

It is widely conceded that because of the unusual nature of the referendum (only 1 of 3 national referenda in British history, and every vote counts equally ie no electoral districts) the usual polling results are unlikely to have their normal accuracy. No formal exit polls have been commissioned although it is rumoured some hedge funds are conducting their own exit polls (which could move markets)

Results will be known some time Friday AM - perhaps after 5am British Summer Time (GMT + 1 hr).

In addition record rainfall (1 month in 1 night) in London area have flooded Tube stations, disrupted commuter trains and caused some polling stations to be moved. Although polls are open 7am to 10pm this may cost the #RemainInEU side votes in one its strongholds (c 1/8th of the country lives in London).

A low turnout is generally held to favour #Brexit, because over 65s (with a very high turnout) are heavily voting that way, and under 30s (with a much lower turnout) are heavily leaning the other way. Generally #Exiters are held to have more passion for the debate and are much more likely to vote. Adjusted for circulation, the vast majority of UK newspapers (The Sun (Murdoch), The Mail, The Express etc. are for #Exit) and only a minority are for #Remain (the Guardian, the Financial Times, The Mirror, The Sunday Mail, The Times, The Economist-- all with much smaller circulations).

Much of the country will vote #Exit, with the exceptions of: London and some other cities including Bristol, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton (all university towns) and Scotland.

The financial markets have concluded #Remain is likely to win. Hence the GBP is strong against the Euro and Dollar (but dropped in the last couple of hours). Betting markets have been favouring #Remain mostly and still give it the majority chance (c 80%). The largest amount of money for a political event ever (c. £50m) has been wagered.

Therefore there is a significant risk of a "shock" if #Brexit wins, leading to a fall in the GBP, perhaps a fall in the Euro against the dollar, and drops in world stock markets, especially but not only the UK.


If there is a vote for #Exit then the existing Prime Minister (David Cameron) is likely to lose his job, and a new PM to assume power (same party: Michael Gove or Boris Johnson). There will then be a 2 year "freeze" with the EU before Britain's entry can be legally ended (a clause in the Treaty of Rome) so a protracted period of uncertainty re financial and business effects.

This is really very short term, all should be clear about the time NY opens Friday morning (the 24th).

Although this is full of offensive language, and John Oliver definitely takes a slanted view, I found this (as I did for the Scottish Referendum) a very helpful little piece, factually correct which is also very funny (warning strong language)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:34 pm

https://www.americanexpress.com/us/cont ... ve-the-EU/

a less humorous, fact-based piece by a British economist for AMEX.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by saltycaper » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:25 am

I was watching Bloomberg this evening just as Remain probabilities were falling and Leave probabilities were increasing. The Pound was swinging wildly, so much so that the headlines shown on the right-hand of the screen were in direct conflict with the information on the left-hand of the screen.

A 10% fall in the currency of the world's 5th largest economy is just extraordinary.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:51 am

saltycaper wrote:I was watching Bloomberg this evening just as Remain probabilities were falling and Leave probabilities were increasing. The Pound was swinging wildly, so much so that the headlines shown on the right-hand of the screen were in direct conflict with the information on the left-hand of the screen.

A 10% fall in the currency of the world's 5th largest economy is just extraordinary.
may not have bottomed yet.

Prime Minister Cameron has resigned, although won't step down until October.

Boris Johnson is strongest candidate to replace him.

Negotiations with EU may be fraught and drawn out (2 years minimum).

British tourists in Greece right now cannot exchange currency because there is no official exchange rate from the Greek Central Bank.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Rainier » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:27 am

Great day to be on vacation in London for an American.

Horrible day to be on vacation in New York for a Briton.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:39 am

Valuethinker, I frequently hear that trade will be disrupted as a result of Brexit. Is there any reason the UK can't continue to trade with the rest of the EU and others, even in the absence of formal trade agreements? Can't they just trade?

The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?

Is Brexit effective immediately or is there a time frame?
Valuethinker wrote:Boris Johnson is strongest candidate to replace him.
When will elections take place? By strongest do you mean most likely to be elected?

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Rainier » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:43 am

Quark wrote:Valuethinker, I frequently hear that trade will be disrupted as a result of Brexit. Is there any reason the UK can't continue to trade with the rest of the EU and others, even in the absence of formal trade agreements? Can't they just trade?

The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?

Is Brexit effective immediately or is there a time frame?
Valuethinker wrote:Boris Johnson is strongest candidate to replace him.
When will elections take place? By strongest do you mean most likely to be elected?
2 year phase out of the EU,it is not immediate

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:44 am

Quark wrote:Valuethinker, I frequently hear that trade will be disrupted as a result of Brexit. Is there any reason the UK can't continue to trade with the rest of the EU and others, even in the absence of formal trade agreements? Can't they just trade?

The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?

Is Brexit effective immediately or is there a time frame?
Valuethinker wrote:Boris Johnson is strongest candidate to replace him.
When will elections take place? By strongest do you mean most likely to be elected?
Read piece referenced above.

Treaty of Rome (Lisbon?) means 2 years before anything formally happens.

So business as usual, probably for at least 2 years. Ditto migration (no controls).

As to free trade etc. no one really knows. The political drive for the "out" voters was control of immigration from within EU, so Swiss and Norwegian relationships w EU (free trade, aligned rules, free movement of labour) are not acceptable to the electorate. In other words "out means out".

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:48 am

Quark wrote: When will elections take place? By strongest do you mean most likely to be elected?
In a Parliamentary system, the leader of the largest party forms the government, usually. The Head of State (ie President) is hereditary ie the Queen and has no direct legislative powers (we have an unwritten constitution, so this is an interesting debate from time to time).

So David Cameron is stepping down in October, there will be an internal race voted on by MPs and party members of the Conservative Party (Tories), to select his successor. Boris Johnson is in poll position-- popular, led the Brexit campaign, etc.

Boris Johnson will then form the government. Under current law there cannot be another election until 2020. However a new Prime Minister may seek to change that law, and go to the country early to secure a renewed mandate.

Likely nothing happens like that until we have a deal with the EU-- possibly up to 2 years. The PM then will want to take that to the electorate and secure a renewed mandate.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:56 am

Valuethinker wrote:As to free trade etc. no one really knows. The political drive for the "out" voters was control of immigration from within EU, so Swiss and Norwegian relationships w EU (free trade, aligned rules, free movement of labour) are not acceptable to the electorate. In other words "out means out".
I find it odd there was so much debate about trade if no one knows what will happen. I would think trade could continue, absent government action to restrict it. I don't recall any push by Leave to restrict trade, rather than immigration and control of laws?

Cameron seems to have said election timing would be decided Monday.

It would seem a lot can happen in the two years from the trigger to formal exit.

Is the vote deemed a push for more NHS funding (and less austerity generally)? Those seem unpopular and NHS cuts seemed to be blamed on immigrants using too much of the service.
The treaty introduces an exit clause for members wanting to withdraw from the Union. This formalises the procedure by stating that a member state must inform the European Council before it can terminate its membership, and a withdrawal agreement would then be negotiated between the Union and that State, with the Treaties ceasing to be applicable to that State from the date of the agreement or, failing that, within two years of the notification unless the State and the Council both agree to extend this period.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon

Cameron says he will leave it up to the next PM to trigger withdrawal, so that's more than two years from now.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:42 am

Quark wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:As to free trade etc. no one really knows. The political drive for the "out" voters was control of immigration from within EU, so Swiss and Norwegian relationships w EU (free trade, aligned rules, free movement of labour) are not acceptable to the electorate. In other words "out means out".
I find it odd there was so much debate about trade if no one knows what will happen. I would think trade could continue, absent government action to restrict it. I don't recall any push by Leave to restrict trade, rather than immigration and control of laws?
Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.

China has said it will take 500 British trade experts and 10 years to work out a new trade agreement with China. We will also need one with USA & NAFTA, former CIS, Latin America etc.
Cameron seems to have said election timing would be decided Monday.

It would seem a lot can happen in the two years from the trigger to formal exit.
Senior European officials have said they want it to happen faster.
Is the vote deemed a push for more NHS funding (and less austerity generally)? Those seem unpopular and NHS cuts seemed to be blamed on immigrants using too much of the service.
Not quite. Demand blamed on immigrants. Cuts blamed on £350m sent to EU each week. However that is only c. 8% of NHS budget in size, and it was never actually a correct number (net number is c. £195m).

Also the money has been promised to the farmers and other affected groups who will lose EU subsidies.
The treaty introduces an exit clause for members wanting to withdraw from the Union. This formalises the procedure by stating that a member state must inform the European Council before it can terminate its membership, and a withdrawal agreement would then be negotiated between the Union and that State, with the Treaties ceasing to be applicable to that State from the date of the agreement or, failing that, within two years of the notification unless the State and the Council both agree to extend this period.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon

Cameron says he will leave it up to the next PM to trigger withdrawal, so that's more than two years from now.
EU might push the pace.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Watty » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:07 am

Quark wrote:The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?
The big problem is the all the uncertainty. No one knows yet. The vote was just that they should leave but until the details are worked out they have not actually left the EU.

One example that I read about is that there was a huge housing bubble in the coastal areas of the south of Spain, which is a very nice area, mainly because British people were buying retirement and vacation homes there. One of the things they were depending on was not only that as an EU citizen they had a right to live there but they could also use the Spanish national health system because they were an EU citizen.

Now that is all up in air and many British people own retirement homes where they may not have access to the healthcare system. It is as if all the out of state retirees in Florida were told that they might not have access to Medicare in Florida anymore.

They will likely work something out but that could take a couple of years.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:08 am

Valuethinker wrote:Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.
Access goes two ways. Trade benefits both parties (although there are clear distributional issues). While emotionally satisfying, it would be economically foolhardy for the EU to restrict trade. OTOH, local protectionism is popular and politicians in EU countries want to discourage others from leaving and to discourage Euroskeptics and isolationists in their own countries.

See stock market movements in my post below.
Valuethinker wrote:Not quite. Demand blamed on immigrants. Cuts blamed on £350m sent to EU each week. However that is only c. 8% of NHS budget in size, and it was never actually a correct number (net number is c. £195m).

Also the money has been promised to the farmers and other affected groups who will lose EU subsidies.
Increased demand means worse service. In any event, what's the popular mood to do something, either about the NHS or other austerity?

"Nigel Farage says no we won't be able to spend £350m to the NHS... That was a mistake for Vote Leave to say that, he says..." according to a Guardian reporter. https://twitter.com/GuardianAnushka/sta ... 5190441986
Valuethinker wrote:Senior European officials have said they want it to happen faster.
It doesn't seem to be their decision.

EDIT: The EU says:
We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press ... eferendum/
Last edited by Quark on Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:42 am, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:09 am

Watty wrote:
Quark wrote:The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?
The big problem is the all the uncertainty. No one knows yet. The vote was just that they should leave but until the details are worked out they have not actually left the EU.
That's the issue at the moment. I tend to think current market moves are an over-reaction, but markets really hate uncertainty and we now have massive uncertainty.

If details are not worked out, they leave two years after notice.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:36 am

Interesting (to me at least) is that German and French stocks are off more that UK stocks, as of the moment. FTSE indicies are down 4-5%, while German DAX is closer to 7% and France closer to 8%. Wonder if that means anything for future bargaining.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks ... iddle-east

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by dumbmoney » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:50 am

Quark wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.
Access goes two ways. Trade benefits both parties (although there are clear distributional issues). While emotionally satisfying, it would be economically foolhardy for the EU to restrict trade. OTOH, local protectionism is popular and politicians in EU countries want to discourage others from leaving and to discourage Euroskeptics and isolationists in their own countries.
The EU is a free trade zone (among other things). Like NAFTA. If you leave a free trade zone, obviously that negatively affects trade, at least until a new arrangement is negotiated.

In an alternate reality where countries are ideologically committed to free trade, maybe there would be no need for trade agreements. But that's not our world.
I am pleased to report that the invisible forces of destruction have been unmasked, marking a turning point chapter when the fraudulent and speculative winds are cast into the inferno of extinction.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:05 am

dumbmoney wrote:
Quark wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.
Access goes two ways. Trade benefits both parties (although there are clear distributional issues). While emotionally satisfying, it would be economically foolhardy for the EU to restrict trade. OTOH, local protectionism is popular and politicians in EU countries want to discourage others from leaving and to discourage Euroskeptics and isolationists in their own countries.
The EU is a free trade zone (among other things). Like NAFTA. If you leave a free trade zone, obviously that negatively affects trade, at least until a new arrangement is negotiated.
You don't need an agreement to trade. The issue would seem to be whether countries impose tariffs, import quotas, etc. Absent anything, you have free trade.

The only exception would be if there are existing requirements for certification or the like, or automatic tariffs or import limits, that are waived for EU members. If so, that would impose a clear barrier to trade absent agreements.

What are the significant barriers to trade that would automatically go into force?

The analyses I'm seeing are that there are risks of the introduction of various things that would hurt trade. If so, not much happens automatically; governments would have to act, with some minor exceptions. Risks include introduction of border controls, customs procedures and tariffs and dual regulations (if laws diverge, firms may have to comply with two sets of rules).

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Epsilon Delta » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:14 am

Valuethinker wrote:[

Boris Johnson will then form the government. Under current law there cannot be another election until 2020. However a new Prime Minister may seek to change that law, and go to the country early to secure a renewed mandate.
Under current law there could be a election before 2020 by a vote of 2/3 of parliament (unlikely) or a government loses a vote of no confidence and a replacement cannot be formed (who knows).

It's worth noting that The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 became effective in 2015. The UK has to date had exactly zero fixed term parliaments, so it's not exactly a well trod path backed up by custom and usage. Well trod paths backed up by custom and usage are a prominent part of an unwritten constitution. As Valuethinker suggests an earlier election would not be unthinkable should the right people think it's the best response to a crisis/opportunity.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Epsilon Delta » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:29 am

Quark wrote:
EDIT: The EU says:
We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press ... eferendum/
Oh the irony. If the EU had a tradition of honoring referenda there would be no Lisbon Treaty.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:43 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Quark wrote:Valuethinker, I frequently hear that trade will be disrupted as a result of Brexit. Is there any reason the UK can't continue to trade with the rest of the EU and others, even in the absence of formal trade agreements? Can't they just trade?

The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?

Is Brexit effective immediately or is there a time frame?
Valuethinker wrote:Boris Johnson is strongest candidate to replace him.
When will elections take place? By strongest do you mean most likely to be elected?
Read piece referenced above.

Treaty of Rome (Lisbon?) means 2 years before anything formally happens.

So business as usual, probably for at least 2 years. Ditto migration (no controls).

As to free trade etc. no one really knows. The political drive for the "out" voters was control of immigration from within EU, so Swiss and Norwegian relationships w EU (free trade, aligned rules, free movement of labour) are not acceptable to the electorate. In other words "out means out".
A couple of points:
First, it's the Treaty of Lisbon. Second, the withdrawal procedure entails that a leaving country notifies the EU and then the two year clock starts ticking. Without the formal notification, it does not. Third, but there is no deadline in the Treaty for giving the formal notification. That's the British leverage. Boris Johnson apparently wants to negotiate some sort of a deal prior to the formal notification. When the two-year clocks starts ticking, his bargaining position will be weaker. The downside is that this delaying tactic will irritate the EU. At some point, even though it's unlikely, Great Britain rights under the Treaty can be suspended in accordance with a procedure that is typically reserved for unruly authoritarian leaders ( it was created with the Austrian Freedom Party in mind and its being part of the Austrian government in the late 1990s, nowadays, it's other leaders who should be worry about it ). So it's going to be messy divorce with a lot of unknowns.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:45 am

Epsilon Delta wrote:
Quark wrote:
EDIT: The EU says:
We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press ... eferendum/
Oh the irony. If the EU had a tradition of honoring referenda there would be no Lisbon Treaty.
I concur, but I wonder whether there is a person who honestly believes that the EU is an embodiment of popular democracy. It's not . It wasn't designed to be democratic; it was designed to preserve peace.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Bfwolf » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:59 am

The EU's response will be fascinating to watch. With Greece, the pain of playing hardball was worth it because the risk of contagion to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland was far too high to be worth giving in to a small country like Greece. But the UK is not Greece. Will they play hardball to prevent contagion as France wants to do? Or will they make concessions to the UK to get a better overall UK-EU outcome and risk contagion, as it appears Germany may be willing to do.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:56 am

Bfwolf wrote:The EU's response will be fascinating to watch. With Greece, the pain of playing hardball was worth it because the risk of contagion to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland was far too high to be worth giving in to a small country like Greece. But the UK is not Greece. Will they play hardball to prevent contagion as France wants to do? Or will they make concessions to the UK to get a better overall UK-EU outcome and risk contagion, as it appears Germany may be willing to do.
The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Quark » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:03 pm

HomoLudens wrote:The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish markets are down a lot more sharply than the UK market.

To the extent markets are estimates of the future economy and voters in each country care about the economy, German, etc. officials have a problem if they push too hard. On the other hand, if these markets are down as a prediction of further break-up, they likely will push very very hard.

It's at least a two year process, which may make the passions and politics of the moment, or the desire to play hardball, less relevant. For example, the EU could further fragment before negotiations are over. Le Pen and her party could win elections. Etc., etc.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:58 pm

Quark wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish markets are down a lot more sharply than the UK market.

To the extent markets are estimates of the future economy and voters in each country care about the economy, German, etc. officials have a problem if they push too hard. On the other hand, if these markets are down as a prediction of further break-up, they likely will push very very hard.

It's at least a two year process, which may make the passions and politics of the moment, or the desire to play hardball, less relevant. For example, the EU could further fragment before negotiations are over. Le Pen and her party could win elections. Etc., etc.

Well, it is a long conversation of course. But for banks and investment firms it's a major problem because of the EU Regulation on markets in financial instruments. The regulation creates a two-tier regime with respect to dispute resolution. Essentially, the regulation prescribes that all disputes shall be heard by a court of a Member-State or an arbitration body with a seat in a Member-State. For third-countries -- meaning non-EU Member-States -- there is a different set of prescriptions. Yesterday, Great Britain was a Member-State. Today, it's a Member-State heading for the exit to become a third-country according to the regulation. Because it's hard to know when GB will leave and when disputes will arise, this means that banks,investors, and financial companies will have a major headache to worry about because it injects a great deal of uncertainty into their contracts. Today, not in two years. The dispute resolution clauses in the contracts will be challenged precisely because of this Regulation and the British exit. I won't comment on issues related to retail investors, but the situation is even worse because third-country financial companies will be required to establish a branch in the country of business: a requirement waived for EU companies.

I am not talking about high politics right now. It's about nuts and bolts of finance and it will have a major impact on the British economy. And this economy is heavily dependent on finance for its prosperity. I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
Last edited by HomoLudens on Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:41 pm

Quark wrote:Interesting (to me at least) is that German and French stocks are off more that UK stocks, as of the moment. FTSE indicies are down 4-5%, while German DAX is closer to 7% and France closer to 8%. Wonder if that means anything for future bargaining.
...
Taking the fall of the GBP vs. EUR into account?
PJW

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by TedSwippet » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:18 pm

HomoLudens wrote:I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
48.1% of them might have. I did. It didn't help.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by gasman » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:20 pm

As luck would have it I am traveling to London tomorrow. Suggestions for changing cash? Airport? Hotel? Bank on Monday?

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:26 pm

TedSwippet wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
48.1% of them might have. I did. It didn't help.
I am sorry Ted. That's the downside of the popular democracy. It's a pity, though, that the decision for holding the referendum was taken because of political myopia, fratricidal party infighting, and opportunistic political leaders. Such a great loss for Europe and the European project. I hope that things will work out for the better. I doubt, but I hope.
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:22 am

Watty wrote:
Quark wrote:The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU?
The big problem is the all the uncertainty. No one knows yet. The vote was just that they should leave but until the details are worked out they have not actually left the EU.

One example that I read about is that there was a huge housing bubble in the coastal areas of the south of Spain, which is a very nice area, mainly because British people were buying retirement and vacation homes there. One of the things they were depending on was not only that as an EU citizen they had a right to live there but they could also use the Spanish national health system because they were an EU citizen.

Now that is all up in air and many British people own retirement homes where they may not have access to the healthcare system. It is as if all the out of state retirees in Florida were told that they might not have access to Medicare in Florida anymore.

They will likely work something out but that could take a couple of years.
I believe you are very out of date on this.

The Spanish housing bubble blew up 8years ago and it has not recovered.

THere are a lot of Germans on that coast, more than Brits. I am sure some way will be found for the Brits to stay, but their pensions are worth 10% less than they were 2 days ago (and c. 30-40% worth than they were 8 years ago). A lot of Brits are trapped, too expensive to move home.

I don't think there will be a further big impact for Spanish housing prices from Brexit. It will hurt, but in a market which wasn't even recovered from 2008 bust.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:29 am

HomoLudens wrote:
Quark wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish markets are down a lot more sharply than the UK market.

To the extent markets are estimates of the future economy and voters in each country care about the economy, German, etc. officials have a problem if they push too hard. On the other hand, if these markets are down as a prediction of further break-up, they likely will push very very hard.

It's at least a two year process, which may make the passions and politics of the moment, or the desire to play hardball, less relevant. For example, the EU could further fragment before negotiations are over. Le Pen and her party could win elections. Etc., etc.

Well, it is a long conversation of course. But for banks and investment firms it's a major problem because of the EU Regulation on markets in financial instruments. The regulation creates a two-tier regime with respect to dispute resolution. Essentially, the regulation prescribes that all disputes shall be heard by a court of a Member-State or an arbitration body with a seat in a Member-State. For third-countries -- meaning non-EU Member-States -- there is a different set of prescriptions. Yesterday, Great Britain was a Member-State. Today, it's a Member-State heading for the exit to become a third-country according to the regulation. Because it's hard to know when GB will leave and when disputes will arise, this means that banks,investors, and financial companies will have a major headache to worry about because it injects a great deal of uncertainty into their contracts. Today, not in two years. The dispute resolution clauses in the contracts will be challenged precisely because of this Regulation and the British exit. I won't comment on issues related to retail investors, but the situation is even worse because third-country financial companies will be required to establish a branch in the country of business: a requirement waived for EU companies.

I am not talking about high politics right now. It's about nuts and bolts of finance and it will have a major impact on the British economy. And this economy is heavily dependent on finance for its prosperity. I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
London and Edinburgh, the 2 homes of the financial services industry, voted massively for #Remain. So yes, we *did* think about it, a lot.

It was the older (in age), poorer parts of the country which voted #Brexit. And they had heavy support from a group of billionaire hedge fund managers and businessmen. Plus the 3 largest tabloid newspapers, who collectively have about 6x the circulation of the papers which were against.

In favour: the Daily Mail (Rothermere), The Sun (Murdoch), The Express (Richard Desmond, who made his first fortune in pornography). The Daily Telegraph (Barclay Brothers-- billionaire property investors, live offshore)

Against: the Times (also a Murdoch paper, much smaller circulation, historically the ultimate establishment newspaper), the Guardian (small circulation liberal left), The Financial Times (free market but socially liberal), The Economist (ditto, even more so).

It was the papers wot won it, and their record on accuracy was shocking-- that's been objectively verified.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:30 am

Quark wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish markets are down a lot more sharply than the UK market.

To the extent markets are estimates of the future economy and voters in each country care about the economy, German, etc. officials have a problem if they push too hard. On the other hand, if these markets are down as a prediction of further break-up, they likely will push very very hard.

It's at least a two year process, which may make the passions and politics of the moment, or the desire to play hardball, less relevant. For example, the EU could further fragment before negotiations are over. Le Pen and her party could win elections. Etc., etc.
The EU will play hardball. THey have to. And they want this done in faster than 2 years.

Look if they treat Greece this badly, how can they possibly be soft to us in front of their electorates?

Scorched Earth negotiations. You watch.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by jjface » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:34 am

Valuethinker wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:
Quark wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish markets are down a lot more sharply than the UK market.

To the extent markets are estimates of the future economy and voters in each country care about the economy, German, etc. officials have a problem if they push too hard. On the other hand, if these markets are down as a prediction of further break-up, they likely will push very very hard.

It's at least a two year process, which may make the passions and politics of the moment, or the desire to play hardball, less relevant. For example, the EU could further fragment before negotiations are over. Le Pen and her party could win elections. Etc., etc.

Well, it is a long conversation of course. But for banks and investment firms it's a major problem because of the EU Regulation on markets in financial instruments. The regulation creates a two-tier regime with respect to dispute resolution. Essentially, the regulation prescribes that all disputes shall be heard by a court of a Member-State or an arbitration body with a seat in a Member-State. For third-countries -- meaning non-EU Member-States -- there is a different set of prescriptions. Yesterday, Great Britain was a Member-State. Today, it's a Member-State heading for the exit to become a third-country according to the regulation. Because it's hard to know when GB will leave and when disputes will arise, this means that banks,investors, and financial companies will have a major headache to worry about because it injects a great deal of uncertainty into their contracts. Today, not in two years. The dispute resolution clauses in the contracts will be challenged precisely because of this Regulation and the British exit. I won't comment on issues related to retail investors, but the situation is even worse because third-country financial companies will be required to establish a branch in the country of business: a requirement waived for EU companies.

I am not talking about high politics right now. It's about nuts and bolts of finance and it will have a major impact on the British economy. And this economy is heavily dependent on finance for its prosperity. I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
London and Edinburgh, the 2 homes of the financial services industry, voted massively for #Remain. So yes, we *did* think about it, a lot.

It was the older (in age), poorer parts of the country which voted #Brexit. And they had heavy support from a group of billionaire hedge fund managers and businessmen. Plus the 3 largest tabloid newspapers, who collectively have about 6x the circulation of the papers which were against.

In favour: the Daily Mail (Rothermere), The Sun (Murdoch), The Express (Richard Desmond, who made his first fortune in pornography). The Daily Telegraph (Barclay Brothers-- billionaire property investors, live offshore)

Against: the Times (also a Murdoch paper, much smaller circulation, historically the ultimate establishment newspaper), the Guardian (small circulation liberal left), The Financial Times (free market but socially liberal), The Economist (ditto, even more so).

It was the papers wot won it, and their record on accuracy was shocking-- that's been objectively verified.
Plus I think people were thinking with their hearts more than their heads. Independent Britain, control immigration, no more bailing out EU failures etc. Not having to be a net contributor to the EU helps with the finances depending on whether Britain can negotiate the same kinds of trade deals without conceding too much. I am still confident that Britain can do great outside the EU. It is times like these that really drives the British people to succeed - when the odds are seemingly stacked against us.

Valuethinker wrote:The EU will play hardball. THey have to. And they want this done in faster than 2 years.

Look if they treat Greece this badly, how can they possibly be soft to us in front of their electorates?

Scorched Earth negotiations. You watch.
They can try. Britain is strong.

I think it was a good play for the (ex) prime minister to not rush into the negotiations. Not much the EU can do to speed things up.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:09 pm

Quark wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.
Access goes two ways. Trade benefits both parties (although there are clear distributional issues). While emotionally satisfying, it would be economically foolhardy for the EU to restrict trade. OTOH, local protectionism is popular and politicians in EU countries want to discourage others from leaving and to discourage Euroskeptics and isolationists in their own countries.
It is their bargaining chip. They will play it. We are 7% of their exports, they are 44% of ours. Who has the stronger hand?
See stock market movements in my post below.
That is about the impact on domestic politics. Again, that will force them to negotiate a tougher position.
Valuethinker wrote:Not quite. Demand blamed on immigrants. Cuts blamed on £350m sent to EU each week. However that is only c. 8% of NHS budget in size, and it was never actually a correct number (net number is c. £195m).

Also the money has been promised to the farmers and other affected groups who will lose EU subsidies.
Increased demand means worse service. In any event, what's the popular mood to do something, either about the NHS or other austerity?
The current government embraces austerity. It was a major part of their victory over Labour in May 2015. For them to abandon it would damage their credibility with the electorate.

As I say, the Leave side believes that when we cut immigration, we will have more resources for the NHS. Or at least so they claimed in the campaign. They now seem to be reversing engines a bit on that.
"Nigel Farage says no we won't be able to spend £350m to the NHS... That was a mistake for Vote Leave to say that, he says..." according to a Guardian reporter. https://twitter.com/GuardianAnushka/sta ... 5190441986
Valuethinker wrote:Senior European officials have said they want it to happen faster.
It doesn't seem to be their decision.
That's unclear, at least to me. If they demand faster negotiations, PM Boris Johnson may have a stall as a tactic.

The thing you have to understand is it is not the electorate's decision who is the next PM. It is the Tory Party's decision. If Johnson doesn't trigger article 20 then he will have real problems with the Brexit part of his own back bench. He can't call a general election without nullifying the election Act (a repeal by Parliament), and he can't fight a general election against his own party.

EDIT: The EU says:
We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press ... eferendum/
[/quote]

The decision of 52.1% of those who bothered to vote, they mean.

And the English people. The Scots and Northern Irish were for Remain.

The shockwaves from all of this will include the breakup of the Union. I supported the Union cause heavily in 2014 and the Scottish Referendum. I could make no case, now, for doing so again. Scottish Labour is a spent force. So who would make that case for Union, outside the EU?

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:12 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
The EU will play hardball. THey have to. And they want this done in faster than 2 years.

Look if they treat Greece this badly, how can they possibly be soft to us in front of their electorates?

Scorched Earth negotiations. You watch.

Scorched Earth? No. I don't think so. Punitive in public? No. I don't think so. Borderline punitive behind close doors? Yes. And those who need to know how punitive it was will learn it. And they will think twice before emulating Mr. Cameron's example in monumentally unintelligent party politics. It's not a question of personalities, but a political necessity. Somehow, I was reminded of Orwell's story "Shooting an Elephant". Same situation here.

Not to mention that Scotland will have to declare independence within the two-year window if its wants to remain in the EU and avoid going through the accession process. We will see a confluence of crises: Withdrawal, Scottish independence, and Domestic political chaos and recriminations once the factual inaccuracy of the "Leave" camp claims becomes evident and clear to their voters ( if it does at all).
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by jjface » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:17 pm

Valuethinker wrote: And the English people. The Scots and Northern Irish were for Remain.
Ahem what about the Welsh....

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by jjface » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:19 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Quark wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.
Access goes two ways. Trade benefits both parties (although there are clear distributional issues). While emotionally satisfying, it would be economically foolhardy for the EU to restrict trade. OTOH, local protectionism is popular and politicians in EU countries want to discourage others from leaving and to discourage Euroskeptics and isolationists in their own countries.
It is their bargaining chip. They will play it. We are 7% of their exports, they are 44% of ours. Who has the stronger hand?
We also pay them a lot of money. I think who has the stronger hand is not clear.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by gilgamesh » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:32 pm

TedSwippet wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
48.1% of them might have. I did. It didn't help.
The second highest Google search by Brits AFTER the vote was 'What is EU'

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechcons ... rexit-vote

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by HomoLudens » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:44 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
The second highest Google search by Brits AFTER the vote was 'What is EU'

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechcons ... rexit-vote

There is glimmer of hope here: At least it wasn't "What's a referendum?"
"'Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind." Immanuel Kant

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by TedSwippet » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:17 pm

gilgamesh wrote:The second highest Google search by Brits AFTER the vote was 'What is EU?'
Under-eighteens wondering what all the fuss was about, perhaps?

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by gilgamesh » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:36 pm

TedSwippet wrote:
gilgamesh wrote:The second highest Google search by Brits AFTER the vote was 'What is EU?'
Under-eighteens wondering what all the fuss was about, perhaps?
Excellent point!

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:28 pm

jjface wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:
Quark wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Think. This is a negotiation between 2 powers: EU and the UK. Access to markets is a bargaining chip.
Access goes two ways. Trade benefits both parties (although there are clear distributional issues). While emotionally satisfying, it would be economically foolhardy for the EU to restrict trade. OTOH, local protectionism is popular and politicians in EU countries want to discourage others from leaving and to discourage Euroskeptics and isolationists in their own countries.
It is their bargaining chip. They will play it. We are 7% of their exports, they are 44% of ours. Who has the stronger hand?
We also pay them a lot of money. I think who has the stronger hand is not clear.
Try again.

We are one of the lower payers per capita. They lose our money, but they also lose our cost.

In any case, "a Lot" ie a net of about £9.0bn pa, is not a lot of money to countries with a combined GDP in the trillions.

They can live without us.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:29 pm

jjface wrote:
Valuethinker wrote: And the English people. The Scots and Northern Irish were for Remain.
Ahem what about the Welsh....
Fair point. So it's England and Wales. Americans have trouble with the distinction between "British" and "English".

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:30 pm

TedSwippet wrote:
gilgamesh wrote:The second highest Google search by Brits AFTER the vote was 'What is EU?'
Under-eighteens wondering what all the fuss was about, perhaps?
I really doubt that. I think it was voters trying to figure out what they had actually voted on?

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:32 pm

HomoLudens wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:
The EU will play hardball. THey have to. And they want this done in faster than 2 years.

Look if they treat Greece this badly, how can they possibly be soft to us in front of their electorates?

Scorched Earth negotiations. You watch.

Scorched Earth? No. I don't think so. Punitive in public? No. I don't think so. Borderline punitive behind close doors? Yes. And those who need to know how punitive it was will learn it. And they will think twice before emulating Mr. Cameron's example in monumentally unintelligent party politics. It's not a question of personalities, but a political necessity. Somehow, I was reminded of Orwell's story "Shooting an Elephant". Same situation here.
I don't know the reference well enough to understand your point.

However to prevent a bunch of "me too" from other separationist movements, they will have to be publicly tough.
Not to mention that Scotland will have to declare independence within the two-year window if its wants to remain in the EU and avoid going through the accession process. We will see a confluence of crises: Withdrawal, Scottish independence, and Domestic political chaos and recriminations once the factual inaccuracy of the "Leave" camp claims becomes evident and clear to their voters ( if it does at all).
The fuse is lit on Scotland. In truth I think it is more likely 5 years than 2. But it is lit-- the whole Unionist case just about collapsed. On the other hand, Scotland is not in a financial position to go right now.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:36 pm

jjface wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:
Quark wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious.
Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish markets are down a lot more sharply than the UK market.

To the extent markets are estimates of the future economy and voters in each country care about the economy, German, etc. officials have a problem if they push too hard. On the other hand, if these markets are down as a prediction of further break-up, they likely will push very very hard.

It's at least a two year process, which may make the passions and politics of the moment, or the desire to play hardball, less relevant. For example, the EU could further fragment before negotiations are over. Le Pen and her party could win elections. Etc., etc.

Well, it is a long conversation of course. But for banks and investment firms it's a major problem because of the EU Regulation on markets in financial instruments. The regulation creates a two-tier regime with respect to dispute resolution. Essentially, the regulation prescribes that all disputes shall be heard by a court of a Member-State or an arbitration body with a seat in a Member-State. For third-countries -- meaning non-EU Member-States -- there is a different set of prescriptions. Yesterday, Great Britain was a Member-State. Today, it's a Member-State heading for the exit to become a third-country according to the regulation. Because it's hard to know when GB will leave and when disputes will arise, this means that banks,investors, and financial companies will have a major headache to worry about because it injects a great deal of uncertainty into their contracts. Today, not in two years. The dispute resolution clauses in the contracts will be challenged precisely because of this Regulation and the British exit. I won't comment on issues related to retail investors, but the situation is even worse because third-country financial companies will be required to establish a branch in the country of business: a requirement waived for EU companies.

I am not talking about high politics right now. It's about nuts and bolts of finance and it will have a major impact on the British economy. And this economy is heavily dependent on finance for its prosperity. I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
London and Edinburgh, the 2 homes of the financial services industry, voted massively for #Remain. So yes, we *did* think about it, a lot.

It was the older (in age), poorer parts of the country which voted #Brexit. And they had heavy support from a group of billionaire hedge fund managers and businessmen. Plus the 3 largest tabloid newspapers, who collectively have about 6x the circulation of the papers which were against.

In favour: the Daily Mail (Rothermere), The Sun (Murdoch), The Express (Richard Desmond, who made his first fortune in pornography). The Daily Telegraph (Barclay Brothers-- billionaire property investors, live offshore)

Against: the Times (also a Murdoch paper, much smaller circulation, historically the ultimate establishment newspaper), the Guardian (small circulation liberal left), The Financial Times (free market but socially liberal), The Economist (ditto, even more so).

It was the papers wot won it, and their record on accuracy was shocking-- that's been objectively verified.
Plus I think people were thinking with their hearts more than their heads. Independent Britain, control immigration, no more bailing out EU failures etc. Not having to be a net contributor to the EU helps with the finances depending on whether Britain can negotiate the same kinds of trade deals without conceding too much. I am still confident that Britain can do great outside the EU. It is times like these that really drives the British people to succeed - when the odds are seemingly stacked against us.
I remember the 1970s too well. Echoes of the 1940s don't really do it-- after all there was the whole Empire then.

On the trade deals, it will be a mess OR we wind up like Norway. At which point, the whole Brexit case falls apart-- we get EU rules, an EU contribution *and* free movement of workers.

What happens when the people who voted for this find the promises were empty? Ian Duncan Smith this morning denied the NHS funding point. Farage the same. Hanan says control over migration unlikely. When the mass of the electorate that voted for Brexit works out they've been sold a total bill of goods?
Valuethinker wrote:The EU will play hardball. THey have to. And they want this done in faster than 2 years.

Look if they treat Greece this badly, how can they possibly be soft to us in front of their electorates?

Scorched Earth negotiations. You watch.
They can try. Britain is strong.

I think it was a good play for the (ex) prime minister to not rush into the negotiations. Not much the EU can do to speed things up.
[/quote]

In what sense is Britain "strong" at this point? Political crisis in both leading parties, Scotland and Northern Ireland both talking separation.

We *need* access to markets for 44% of our exports, and we need access for our vital services industries. By contrast they can do the services, and they only have 7% of their exports to us. What makes you think we have a negotiating advantage?

And our country obviously very divided and confused.

Ohh and the case on which Brexit made its claim, more money for NHS, total control of immigration-- oops, that's not going to happen.

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Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:20 pm

I removed an off-topic post. This thread has run its course and is locked (derailed on politics). See: Politics and Religion
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:

* Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
* Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
* Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed laws or regulations are prohibited.
* Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

Locked