Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I got about 50% vanguard total international and 50% total stock, I guess for total stock I don't need to worry about it much since it's US. how about for total international? just leave it?
if they do exit, I am thinking just leave it since I am going for long term, like 10,15 years. Is that the right mindset or should I thinking about selling it.
Actually I got those for about 10 years and I never touched them, should I have sell them or it doesn't matter since I am going for long term?
if they do exit, I am thinking just leave it since I am going for long term, like 10,15 years. Is that the right mindset or should I thinking about selling it.
Actually I got those for about 10 years and I never touched them, should I have sell them or it doesn't matter since I am going for long term?
- Taylor Larimore
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Bogleheads:
According to the International Monetary Fund, in 1915 the World Gross Domestic Product totaled approximately $18 trillion dollars. The United Kingdom had a Gross Domestic Product of approximately $3 trillion dollars.
Whatever the "Brixit scenario," I doubt it will matter very much. The media is constantly looking for something to write about. Brixit is made to order.
When experts disagree, it is often because it makes no foreseeable difference.
Best wishes.
Taylor
According to the International Monetary Fund, in 1915 the World Gross Domestic Product totaled approximately $18 trillion dollars. The United Kingdom had a Gross Domestic Product of approximately $3 trillion dollars.
Whatever the "Brixit scenario," I doubt it will matter very much. The media is constantly looking for something to write about. Brixit is made to order.
When experts disagree, it is often because it makes no foreseeable difference.
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
The day has arrived ... and I have done and will continue to do nothing different than the day before.
Actually, things look pretty good thus far...
:beerCheers,
packet
Actually, things look pretty good thus far...
:beerCheers,
packet
First round’s on me.
- triceratop
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
+1.packet wrote:The day has arrived ... and I have done and will continue to do nothing different than the day before.
Actually, things look pretty good thus far...
:beerCheers,
packet
Though I am salivating at a buying opportunity for international stocks, if Brexit does occur. The volatility and (hopefully) panic will be useful for long-term investors, i.e. Bogleheads.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Mrs. Doc "invested" in Euros and Pounds yesterday. Total investment approx $450 US.packet wrote:The day has arrived ... and I have done and will continue to do nothing different than the day before.
Actually, things look pretty good thus far...
:beerCheers,
packet
(If she was going to buy today I would have told her to wait.)
A scientist looks for THE answer to a problem, an engineer looks for AN answer and lawyers ONLY have opinions. Investing is not a science.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Put all your money in cotton. Britain will have to resort to its old-world cotton business, and there's money to be made.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
^^ tulips anyone?
:beerCheers,
packet
:beerCheers,
packet
First round’s on me.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
If my AA moves by 5% off target, I'll rebalance... Regardless of the headline. If it happens tomorrow it will likely be from domestic to international equities.
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Turn off the talking heads' reports
stick with the fundamentals of low cost indexing,
know your risk tolerance,
and do not kiss your asset allocation goodbye.
m
stick with the fundamentals of low cost indexing,
know your risk tolerance,
and do not kiss your asset allocation goodbye.
m
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
@ ~ 9PM EDT -- betting markets have flipped to leave. Pound getting crushed as are futures.Doc wrote:Mrs. Doc "invested" in Euros and Pounds yesterday. Total investment approx $450 US.packet wrote:The day has arrived ... and I have done and will continue to do nothing different than the day before.
Actually, things look pretty good thus far...
:beerCheers,
packet
(If she was going to buy today I would have told her to wait.)
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
How does the efficient-market hypothesis account for these wild swings in international stocks on the basis of an odd poll here or there?!
I am scheduled to rebalance into international on the first of the month. Maybe it'll be on sale.
I am scheduled to rebalance into international on the first of the month. Maybe it'll be on sale.
merely an interested amateur
- triceratop
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Er, aren't the wild swings the expected result of the EMH being true (not commenting either way on its validity) ? New information is being processed by market participants.lgs88 wrote:How does the efficient-market hypothesis account for these wild swings in international stocks on the basis of an odd poll here or there?!
I am scheduled to rebalance into international on the first of the month. Maybe it'll be on sale.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
EMH says nothing about the short run [hours, like now]...EMH holds up quite well over the long run as information is processedlgs88 wrote:How does the efficient-market hypothesis account for these wild swings in international stocks on the basis of an odd poll here or there?!
I am scheduled to rebalance into international on the first of the month. Maybe it'll be on sale.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
That is exactly what you would expect under EMH with new information introduced to a volatile and marginal future event. Nobody expects the market to predict the future, it expects it to represent the best prediction given known information - as known information changes the prediction changes.lgs88 wrote:How does the efficient-market hypothesis account for these wild swings in international stocks on the basis of an odd poll here or there?!
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Looks like great actionable advice would be to short the pound. I'll go back and edit my original answer.
I’d trade it all for a little more |
-C Montgomery Burns
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
My advice to any interested Bogleheads would be to not look at your account balance tomorrow, It won't be pretty, unless you have mostly Treasuries.
I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice.
I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.
- Rick Ferri
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Actionable advice is to visit England this summer because everything just went on sale.
Rick Ferri
Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Limey jerks. First Bunker Hill and now this. Thanks for nothing.baw703916 wrote:My advice to any interested Bogleheads would be to not look at your account balance tomorrow, It won't be pretty, unless you have mostly Treasuries.
I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice.
I’d trade it all for a little more |
-C Montgomery Burns
- whodidntante
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Looks like I will do a little shopping tomorrow.
- triceratop
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Careful, 250 year old political disputes are still politics!JonnyDVM wrote:Limey jerks. First Bunker Hill and now this. Thanks for nothing.baw703916 wrote:My advice to any interested Bogleheads would be to not look at your account balance tomorrow, It won't be pretty, unless you have mostly Treasuries.
I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Too soon?triceratop wrote:Careful, politics!JonnyDVM wrote:Limey jerks. First Bunker Hill and now this. Thanks for nothing.baw703916 wrote:My advice to any interested Bogleheads would be to not look at your account balance tomorrow, It won't be pretty, unless you have mostly Treasuries.
I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice.
I’d trade it all for a little more |
-C Montgomery Burns
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Surely it's actionable to discuss means of avoiding the cruel impositions of the Stamp Act of 1765?!
merely an interested amateur
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
If the pile on into Treasuries lasts, mortgage rates could drop. So plan on buying property after you get back from England.
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Pound is -9% right now, FTSE futures are -8%, S&P futures -5% from their peak near today's close. Leave is leading by half a million votes (2% or so of the total counted), with half the votes counted. It's not over yet.Tanelorn wrote:If you think they will exit, here are two actionable things:
1. Short the pound. The GBP exchange rate, vs dollars or euros, has moved down when exit polls have risen and up when the polls suggested staying.
2. Sell some equities, especially European equities, and hold more cash. If the exit vote succeeds, those equity markets will fall due to rising uncertainty. Then if you're an optimist that it will all work out, buy some cheap shares and get paid to wait for the uncertainty to pass.
It is looking somewhat more likely than not that the exit vote will pass. The immigration crisis may well tear the EU apart.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I'm really happy I used miles to get a couple business class tickets to London in September. Now I just have to spend enough on food and souvenirs to make up for the 6 figure hit my portfolio is going to take tomorrow. Ouch!Rick Ferri wrote:Actionable advice is to visit England this summer because everything just went on sale.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I bought some tickets for a 2 weeks vacation to Europe in March next year with points. Should I buy some Euros now?
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I think you meant 2015, and the $18 trillion is the US GDP - world GDP is around $78 trillion.Taylor Larimore wrote: According to the International Monetary Fund, in 1915 the World Gross Domestic Product totaled approximately $18 trillion dollars. The United Kingdom had a Gross Domestic Product of approximately $3 trillion dollars.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Last edited by Fudgie on Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Europe might not be there in Marchcorpgator wrote:I bought some tickets for a 2 weeks vacation to Europe in March next year with points. Should I buy some Euros now?
- triceratop
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I am kicking myself for buying VSS at 93.12 last week. It seemed like a good idea at the time.Fudgie wrote:Already placed an order for tomorrow!triceratop wrote:+1.packet wrote:The day has arrived ... and I have done and will continue to do nothing different than the day before.
Actually, things look pretty good thus far...
:beerCheers,
packet
Though I am salivating at a buying opportunity for international stocks, if Brexit does occur. The volatility and (hopefully) panic will be useful for long-term investors, i.e. Bogleheads.
Oh well, I can buy more next friday (paycheck)! Happy buying.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-f ... SKCN0Z71TAImmediate risks, like the potential fallout from Britain's June 23 vote on whether to leave the European Union, could darken the U.S. economic outlook, she told the Senate Banking Committee, as could a downturn in productivity growth that may prove a permanent drag on the economy.
Rate hike off the table for a while?
buy TLT?
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
How come yen is surging against USD? I thought the dollar was the proper "flight to safety" currency.
merely an interested amateur
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Next, Scotland holds another referendum to cede from UK.
Trouble in Spain. Perhaps France as well. Enough to keep negative headlines re: EU flowing.
Europe/International stocks get smoked for near future.
And time to refinance again!
Trouble in Spain. Perhaps France as well. Enough to keep negative headlines re: EU flowing.
Europe/International stocks get smoked for near future.
And time to refinance again!
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Bloomberg just said Wales may leave the UK as well. Doubtful but who knows? Maybe Cornwall too?sk.dolcevita wrote:Next, Scotland holds another referendum to cede from UK.
Trouble in Spain. Perhaps France as well. Enough to keep negative headlines re: EU flowing.
Europe/International stocks get smoked for near future.
And time to refinance again!
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I am bit surprised that Wales voted to leave. Perhaps someone from UK can illuminate.Nicolas wrote:Bloomberg just said Wales may leave the UK as well.sk.dolcevita wrote:Next, Scotland holds another referendum to cede from UK.
Trouble in Spain. Perhaps France as well. Enough to keep negative headlines re: EU flowing.
Europe/International stocks get smoked for near future.
And time to refinance again!
Gold is up 7%!
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
The major media outlets confirmed the 'Leave' victory a few minutes ago. Mind boggling.
Yup, sit tight, tomorrow isn't going to be fun for stock markets. Staying the course is the only reasonable course of action, though. As usual.
Yup, sit tight, tomorrow isn't going to be fun for stock markets. Staying the course is the only reasonable course of action, though. As usual.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
So, time to buy? VTI or VXUS (US market vs international market)? I just picked up some VXUS last week, time to average down or retreat to US equities? My IPS let's me do whatever on this small amount I'm investing and type of news.Tanelorn wrote:Pound is -9% right now, FTSE futures are -8%, S&P futures -5% from their peak near today's close. Leave is leading by half a million votes (2% or so of the total counted), with half the votes counted. It's not over yet.
Last edited by inbox788 on Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Is there a reason not to buy?
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Market timing is hard. If I was buying, I would buy UK equities once I thought the panic was abating. I would not be in a big rush to buy. For all you know, the exchanges may have problems tomorrow early on.inbox788 wrote:So, time to buy? VTI or VXUS (US market vs international market)? I just picked up some VXUS last week, time to average down or retreat to US equities? My IPS let's me do whatever on this small amount I'm investing and type of news.Tanelorn wrote:Pound is -9% right now, FTSE futures are -8%, S&P futures -5% from their peak near today's close. Leave is leading by half a million votes (2% or so of the total counted), with half the votes counted. It's not over yet.
- LAlearning
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Yeah, but my IPS doesn't allow me to buy UK equities, so the best I can do is international index. A 5% discount on US equities isn't bad either. And I'm stuck with closing prices on my mutual fund.Tanelorn wrote:Market timing is hard. If I was buying, I would buy UK equities once I thought the panic was abating. I would not be in a big rush to buy. For all you know, the exchanges may have problems tomorrow early on.
It's a shocker, but I think calmer heads will prevail and the crash in the early day will stabilize by the end of the day drifting above lows. Still, I don't expect there is another shoe falling next week and we won't see tomorrows lows again next week. Others would advise you to avoid the falling knives, but I seldom pay attention to these expressions.
Maybe I'll split the difference and buy one tomorrow and the other shortly in a week or two. This bump in the road isn't going to alter any plans in any significant way.
Can Scotland stay or join the EU alone?LAlearning wrote:And they are out!
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/12021222/b ... ppens-next
- saltycaper
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Reserve currency for many Asian countries, frequent healthy trade surplus, most govt debt owned by its citizens... ?lgs88 wrote:How come yen is surging against USD? I thought the dollar was the proper "flight to safety" currency.
Swiss Franc also frequently a safe haven.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
- peterinjapan
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
I run an export business from Japan. NOT happy about this now.
- saltycaper
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Interesting to watch this fund with its heavy Japanese holdings. Some of the biggest decreases in the Neikki are because of increases in the Yen, hurting exporters. But the effect is dampened for unhedged funds like VSS in such situations. So tomorrow might be really bad instead of awful.triceratop wrote:
I am kicking myself for buying VSS at 93.12 last week. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
Oh well, I can buy more next friday (paycheck)! Happy buying.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
- triceratop
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Not to worry, I only have 5% of my portfolio in VSS for now (slowly buying to meet targets). VXUS, however, is at 29% of total portfolio. Tomorrow is likely to be a awful day.saltycaper wrote:Interesting to watch this fund with its heavy Japanese holdings. Some of the biggest decreases in the Neikki are because of increases in the Yen, hurting exporters. But the effect is dampened for unhedged funds like VSS in such situations. So tomorrow might be really bad instead of awful.triceratop wrote:
I am kicking myself for buying VSS at 93.12 last week. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
Oh well, I can buy more next friday (paycheck)! Happy buying.
I think it will be less than 29% come tomorrow's close.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
- saltycaper
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Fallout may occur over years, not days. I will buy anyway.Whakamole wrote:Is there a reason not to buy?
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
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Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Not specifically, but there is no reason to buy either. If the market drops 3%, or 5%, or even 10% tomorrow, it could be an "over-reaction" and might bounce back soon, or it could continue to fall indefinitely, who knows? Do you know what an over-reaction is when it is happening? Brexit is big. The US market fell over 50% in 2008-9.....a 3% or 10% drop is a drop in the bucket. There are many reasons to suspect this could trigger a chain reaction in Europe.Whakamole wrote:Is there a reason not to buy?
When the NASDAQ fell from its peak (in 2000?) of around 5000 to around 3500 I took that as a buy signal. It is still below its high, 16 years later, not even factoring inflation.
I have no idea if it is a time to buy or sell, so I intend to do nothing. If you buy and profit from it, it was just a lucky guess. Of course, I hope you are lucky.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
When there's high market volatility, how does one buy mutual funds while maintaining their asset allocation?
I ask because I had planned to invest a lump sum worth about 5% of my total assets tomorrow, 6/24, according to my asset allocation of 60% VTSAX, 30% VTIAX, and 10% in a bond fund. This date just happens to be the day after Brexit.
Is there a way I can make sure tomorrow's investment executes in a way that helps maintain my AA? Since mutual fund balances don't update in real-time on Vanguard's website, I'm not sure how to determine the amount of shares to buy tomorrow afternoon. I imagine my VTIAX balance will not look the same at the end of the day tomorrow as it does right now.
I realize I could hold off and buy after I learn my new end-of-day balances tomorrow, but that feels a little "market-timingy" since I'd planned to do this trading anyway. Thanks for any advice!
I ask because I had planned to invest a lump sum worth about 5% of my total assets tomorrow, 6/24, according to my asset allocation of 60% VTSAX, 30% VTIAX, and 10% in a bond fund. This date just happens to be the day after Brexit.
Is there a way I can make sure tomorrow's investment executes in a way that helps maintain my AA? Since mutual fund balances don't update in real-time on Vanguard's website, I'm not sure how to determine the amount of shares to buy tomorrow afternoon. I imagine my VTIAX balance will not look the same at the end of the day tomorrow as it does right now.
I realize I could hold off and buy after I learn my new end-of-day balances tomorrow, but that feels a little "market-timingy" since I'd planned to do this trading anyway. Thanks for any advice!
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
With Vanguard's UI, you don't specify how many shares when purchasing, you specify how many dollars. So if you were investing $100K, then you'd put in an order for $60K of VTSAX, 30% VTIAX, 10% bond fund of your choice, and how many shares would be determined by the closing price.bb10 wrote:When there's high market volatility, how does one buy mutual funds while maintaining their asset allocation?
I ask because I had planned to invest a lump sum worth about 5% of my total assets tomorrow, 6/24, according to my asset allocation of 60% VTSAX, 30% VTIAX, and 10% in a bond fund. This date just happens to be the day after Brexit.
Is there a way I can make sure tomorrow's investment executes in a way that helps maintain my AA? Since mutual fund balances don't update in real-time on Vanguard's website, I'm not sure how to determine the amount of shares to buy tomorrow afternoon. I imagine my VTIAX balance will not look the same at the end of the day tomorrow as it does right now.
Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
True, thanks. But I'm not sure that detail solves the "maintaining my AA" part of the problem...Whakamole wrote:With Vanguard's UI, you don't specify how many shares when purchasing, you specify how many dollars. So if you were investing $100K, then you'd put in an order for $60K of VTSAX, 30% VTIAX, 10% bond fund of your choice, and how many shares would be determined by the closing price.bb10 wrote:When there's high market volatility, how does one buy mutual funds while maintaining their asset allocation?
I ask because I had planned to invest a lump sum worth about 5% of my total assets tomorrow, 6/24, according to my asset allocation of 60% VTSAX, 30% VTIAX, and 10% in a bond fund. This date just happens to be the day after Brexit.
Is there a way I can make sure tomorrow's investment executes in a way that helps maintain my AA? Since mutual fund balances don't update in real-time on Vanguard's website, I'm not sure how to determine the amount of shares to buy tomorrow afternoon. I imagine my VTIAX balance will not look the same at the end of the day tomorrow as it does right now.
I'm trying to figure out if there's a way to know each fund's value in the middle of the day tomorrow so I know how much of each to buy at the end of the day to maintain my AA. This may not be possible, but it'd come in handy on a day like tomorrow.