livesoft wrote:At the 15 min mark he says something about expected outcomes that made me think of the DCA vs LS decision.
"You may not do the highest expected value course of action because ...."
And then later with the talk of tennis and avoiding unforced errors ... LS could result in an unforced error while DCA is less likely to do so. DCA is defensive.
I liked his comment about DCA being defensive. It's potentially avoiding unforced errors.
I think I've let Howard Marks and Rob Arnott get into my head, though. I watched the Rob Arnott lecture video RobertT posted recently
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=192728. It was very interesting. Compelling even. Said a lot of the same things Howard Marks says about valuations and reaching for yield, low expected future returns etc. Made me want to change my plan, become a contrarian as Arnott suggested and overweight EM, etc. So I reacted by doing nothing. But that's not saying I feel good about the next few years. His comments about US equity valuations, bond yields and appealing international valuations are stuck in my head. I'd like to think that a tactical AA would work, but golly that's just not who I am. Perhaps to my own detriment.
I keep circling back to Howard Marks and his statement, "Over-priced is not the same thing as going down tomorrow." How true- possibly. Perhaps even probably. I hope. But in my heart I know valuations matter.
"The greatest enemies of the equity investor are expenses and emotions." -John C. Bogle, Little Book of Common Sense Investing. |
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"Winter is coming." Lord Eddard Stark.