Nicolas wrote: ↑
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:39 am
I took his advice to buy AAPL in 2010, for that I am thankful. (Still holding).
but what about others who upon his advice in 2009 waited to get into the market until the Dow reached 5000 (Cramer's notion of what the bottom was to be)? For those who would take his advice on that one, they'd still be waiting on the sidelines in cash since the Dow never got that low during/after the Great Recession.
See the problem? We choose to salute his winning picks and forget his picks that didn't turn out well. Well, how are we supposed to know which of his NEXT picks will do well or poorly? We don't. That's why it's foolish to listen to him at all, least of all invest any actual money based on any of his recommendations, which are nothing more than guesses. I can guess too and probably be as right and wrong as Cramer. I don't need him for that.
So you're confusing outcome with strategy as Larry Swedroe says. Just because your outcome with Apple worked out well, doesn't mean the strategy was good. Luck is not an investable strategy. Those who invested in the total stock market also got the return of Apple.
Cramer and others say things like, "Well, not all my picks turn out well, but my winners more than make up for my losers". I'm not sure about that. Unless someone really pores over his investments and compares it to an appropriate benchmark we really don't know what's going on. There's a lack of transparency with Cramer and others who like to puff their chests on TV.
But (and this has been said so many times I can't believe it has to be said again) if he's so brilliant why is he sharing this information with you?? And why isn't he retired? If he's so smart as an investor shouldn't he be on his own private island somewhere where we never hear from him again (wish fulfillment on my part I readily admit).
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle |
“The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein