I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

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DrGoogle2017
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:08 pm

unclescrooge wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:34 am
DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:54 am
I've been on EM since VWO was 32. It's now 44. But I don't actually own anything, I've been writing cash covered puts.
So you're mildly bullish to neutral on EM? :mrgreen:

If I was calling a bottom on EM, I'd be in 3x leveraged funds!

Although I did up my EM allocation to 20%, last year.
I thank the people in other forum for alert me to it. But I'm merely hedging my bet, just in case I'm wrong. I've been wrong regarding before, regarding internationals investing. But I believe at one time it was 30% of my stock holdings, now much less, but have VXUS now. I'm getting tired of guessing which countries will do well.

sambb
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by sambb » Mon Jan 01, 2018 7:12 pm

Thanks for this call to the OP! helped me a lot!

HenrySouthernCal
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by HenrySouthernCal » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:14 pm

I wasn't following BogleHeads until a couple of months ago. I was following EM markets for a few years, but was hesitant to get in fearing the problem in China could spread to other the whole EM countries. I did my EM purchase on Vanguard EM Index fund in early February after I saw Chinese foreign reserve stabilized and went up for several months in a row. The whole 2015 and 2016 the western financial world was obsessed with Chinese economy hard landing and capital departure. Early 20017 I noticed the tough government capital control rule started to take effect, then I took the bet on EM sector. I didn't bet on individual EM stocks as it it was not worth it.

I know many hard core bogleheads on this board don't like market timing, but I do think a certain degree of major and rare timing is OK, especially on sector level. Vanguard even admitted they occasionally pick a few penny and dime from it.

Theoretical
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by Theoretical » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:41 pm

Something to consider is that Emerging Markets at the time of grap's post were in extreme deep value territory as a collective whole.

Market timing in extreme situations, especially contrarian buying, is a pretty nice strategy, partly because it requires nerves of steel.

Junk bonds (diversified fund yields well over 20%), financial stocks, and REITs were crazy-good values in 2008-09, but the real can't miss winner of 08-09 was the liquidity-based pricing of TIPS, which were yielded up to 4% real for long term issues. Warren Buffett made out like a robber baron in 2008 being the last man with cash.

One key here was that absolutely none of the financial press was suggesting for even a bit to go to emerging markets stocks until mid-2016 for all of the fears.

And you know, I had 3 separate large tax loss harvestings in about 45 days due to EM plunges.

I got skilled lucky, skilled in being willing to invest in something that was rotting up the joint. Lucky in picking one of the lowest days to plunk it (FNDE) into.

I'm way more psychologically comfortable doing a bit of timing when something looks as toxic as a daycare stuffed animal that had a run-in with a diaper than I am worrying about the top and timing on that side.

Elysium
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by Elysium » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:00 pm

Been in EM since 2006, it goes up, it goes down, that's the way it rolls. The beauty of diversification is that it actually works, and in both directions. That's why we hold non-correlated assets, and no guarantee of higher returns ever. Re-balancing rule takes away the need to guess timing correct, that means buying when it goes below band and selling above the band.

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ray.james
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by ray.james » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:47 pm

Echoing theoretical, When Grap made the call EM had a valuation of 12 and fundamental index even hit under 10. This is for a basket of 20 odd countries that cover 40% of world population. I too benefited from EM. :happy
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JoMoney
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by JoMoney » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:59 pm

Oh sure... it's easy to try and call the bottom on stocks that had been sinking...
I want to call "the bottom" on U.S. stocks at their current levels :D :greedy :wink:
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

900ss
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by 900ss » Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Thoughts on buying SCHE at this time?

sambb
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by sambb » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:46 pm

wonder if 2018 will be good for EM again. Callan tables will be interesting.

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whodidntante
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by whodidntante » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:57 pm

900ss wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am
Thoughts on buying SCHE at this time?
Since I haven't sold all of my EM, I am unable to recommend against buying EM.

garlandwhizzer
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by garlandwhizzer » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:32 pm

25% of my equity portfolio has been in EM, mostly EMV and EMSV, for more than a year. I have overweighted EM relative to its market cap in INTL indexes for years, even increasing exposure as it tanked. Finally, finally, it paid off. What goes down rapidly, persistently, and severely can go up rapidly and enthusiastically in markets. EM is riskier and much more volatile than TSM, no doubt about that, but it does have strong fundamental economic underpinnings. I believe in time that increased risk is likely to be rewarded with better returns. Hopefully last year was a harbinger of the future.

Garland Whizzer

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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:34 am

12% of my portfolio is in EM. let's hope it works out in 2018.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

hilink73
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by hilink73 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:10 am

As my portfolio is GDP weighted, I have around 37% EM. :shock:

sambb
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by sambb » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:25 am

The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong.

yarnandthread
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by yarnandthread » Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:35 am

sambb wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:25 am
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong.
I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS!

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WpgGuy
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by WpgGuy » Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:59 am

yarnandthread wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:35 am
sambb wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:25 am
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong.
I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS!
I still don't get you EM folks.

Let's look at some mid-term history:
Image

Under-performs the S&P 500, by nearly 40% (I'd go back further, but perfcharts wouldn't let me).

Ok, fine but let's say you have the gift of calling bottoms, and you time it nearly perfect:
Image

You still only edge out the S&P 500 by maybe 17%, over 2 years. And if you get it wrong....even by a little, you got a whopping 6% edge on the S&P 500:

Image

Seems like a lot of work & risk (i.e. volatility) for very little win. I'd also be willing to wager the S&P 500 makes up the difference this year given the tax reform bill. I'm sticking with Buffet's advice on this...

Theoretical
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by Theoretical » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:06 am

WpgGuy wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:59 am
yarnandthread wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:35 am
sambb wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:25 am
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong.
I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS!
I still don't get you EM folks.

Let's look at some mid-term history:
Image

Under-performs the S&P 500, by nearly 40% (I'd go back further, but perfcharts wouldn't let me).

So that chart illustrates exactly why I want a slice of EM in my portfolio, precisely because an asset that volatile and not fully correlated got the US market is a good diversifier. US stocks don't always go up.

Tracking error does not bother me, especially not in the FAANG era.


Ok, fine but let's say you have the gift of calling bottoms, and you time it nearly perfect:
Image

You still only edge out the S&P 500 by maybe 17%, over 2 years. And if you get it wrong....even by a little, you got a whopping 6% edge on the S&P 500:

Image

Seems like a lot of work & risk (i.e. volatility) for very little win. I'd also be willing to wager the S&P 500 makes up the difference this year given the tax reform bill. I'm sticking with Buffet's advice on this...
S&P might make up the difference or it might not. Also for those who've been shoveling rebalancing money into their EM allocation in the down years have done exceedingly well.

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jhfenton
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by jhfenton » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:30 am

Theoretical wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:06 am
S&P might make up the difference or it might not. Also for those who've been shoveling rebalancing money into their EM allocation in the down years have done exceedingly well.
+1 I've continuously held a separate emerging markets position since the summer of 1998. (I felt like an idiot for the first couple of months and a genius a year and half later.) Not only has a static position in emerging markets significantly outperformed the U.S. market over those 20 years, but rebalancing and adding a steady stream of new money has made the returns even better. (Admittedly, it would have been even better to skip late 2007 to early 2016, but you don't get to do that.)

bgf
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by bgf » Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:33 am

jhfenton wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:30 am
Theoretical wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:06 am
S&P might make up the difference or it might not. Also for those who've been shoveling rebalancing money into their EM allocation in the down years have done exceedingly well.
+1 I've continuously held a separate emerging markets position since the summer of 1998. (I felt like an idiot for the first couple of months and a genius a year and half later.) Not only has a static position in emerging markets significantly outperformed the U.S. market over those 20 years, but rebalancing and adding a steady stream of new money has made the returns even better. (Admittedly, it would have been even better to skip late 2007 to early 2016, but you don't get to do that.)
i agree. you really need to take rebalancing into account when comparing an investment in both to an investment in just the sp500.

i can see an old investor, perhaps already retired, limiting their emerging markets exposure, or foregoing it altogether, but i struggle to see why young investors in the 20s and 30s would not invest in it.

my crystal ball is as foggy as the next, but the impact of the 'catch up' effect in emerging markets due to the diffusion of internet, communication, and most importantly education and skills is going to be huge over the next 20-30 years. the power of that alone dwarfs the negatives we often hear, political instability and other well worn cliches.
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tesuzuki2002
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:39 pm

grap0013 wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:49 am
I'm calling an Emerging Markets bottom this year. Not sure what month/day per se but sometime in 2016. This reminds me of the shoe shine boy in 1999 who is giving his customers stock tips. Twice in the past week I've heard people who are uninterested in investing talking about how Emerging Markets are going down the tubes and to avoid them. EVERYBODY now knows this. Hence the bottom is in sight. Buy buy buy. Yes, yes, yes I hear you. I mean to say "make sure to buy back to your predetermined target allocation". :)
Who started from the bottom???

WhiteMaxima
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:49 pm

Buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Anyone ever achieve that?

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whodidntante
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by whodidntante » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:01 pm

An EM allocation is beneficial if you believe modern portfolio theory. The returns are high and the correlation isn't. Even if you reject MPT, expected return models have been telling you to buy EM for some time now.

RRAAYY3
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by RRAAYY3 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:03 pm

OP had it all wrong

When you hear random people talking about avoiding something ... that’s when you pounce

when you hear the shoe shine boy talking up the Dow Jones - that’s when you reconsider

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oneleaf
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by oneleaf » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:08 pm

Currently hold positions in PXH (Powershares EMV), DGS (Wisdomtree EMSV), and VWO (Vanguard EM). Finally did a long overdue rebalancing this morning. Looks like I was early by a few hours as it keeps climbing. :D

orphic
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by orphic » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:51 pm

WpgGuy wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:59 am
yarnandthread wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:35 am
sambb wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:25 am
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong.
I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS!
I still don't get you EM folks.

Let's look at some mid-term history:
Image

Under-performs the S&P 500, by nearly 40% (I'd go back further, but perfcharts wouldn't let me).

Ok, fine but let's say you have the gift of calling bottoms, and you time it nearly perfect:
Image

You still only edge out the S&P 500 by maybe 17%, over 2 years. And if you get it wrong....even by a little, you got a whopping 6% edge on the S&P 500:

Image

Seems like a lot of work & risk (i.e. volatility) for very little win. I'd also be willing to wager the S&P 500 makes up the difference this year given the tax reform bill. I'm sticking with Buffet's advice on this...
Using an arbitrary time frame like '06 - '18 results to predict future EM-to-US relative returns simply could not be more absurd.

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WpgGuy
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by WpgGuy » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:25 pm

orphic wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:51 pm
WpgGuy wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:59 am
yarnandthread wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:35 am
sambb wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:25 am
The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong.
I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcome years ago when I bought it. Will it continue to outperform over the next 1, 2, 5 years?, WHO KNOWS!
I still don't get you EM folks.

Let's look at some mid-term history:
Image

Under-performs the S&P 500, by nearly 40% (I'd go back further, but perfcharts wouldn't let me).

Ok, fine but let's say you have the gift of calling bottoms, and you time it nearly perfect:
Image

You still only edge out the S&P 500 by maybe 17%, over 2 years. And if you get it wrong....even by a little, you got a whopping 6% edge on the S&P 500:

Image

Seems like a lot of work & risk (i.e. volatility) for very little win. I'd also be willing to wager the S&P 500 makes up the difference this year given the tax reform bill. I'm sticking with Buffet's advice on this...
Using an arbitrary time frame like '06 - '18 results to predict future EM-to-US relative returns simply could not be more absurd.
Like I said, I could not find longer periods of data to compare (dividends included). Can you suggest a data source? I’m trying to be convinced of the EM thesis, help me to understand.

Theoretical
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by Theoretical » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:32 pm

Use ticker VEIEX - Vanguard EM Investor class - it goes back to 1995 or so. You were using the ETF ticker VWO.

orphic
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by orphic » Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:15 pm

Here's another but you've gotta kind of zoom out to go back to '88. Also it's similar but not identical to vanguards em index.

The main thesis for a long-term buy-and-hold investor overweighting EM equities (within the last couple of years) has been low relative valuations coupled with the cyclical relationships of US-International-EM stocks. One or the other tends to outperform for long periods of time before reversing and EM experienced a bear market from '11 - '16 while US stocks were soaring.

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ray.james
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by ray.james » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:27 pm

Ding! Valuation alert.
Fundamental index EM are now under 10 F-p/e. Yes this is not 2016 lows in pricing, but earnings were way up to bring it back under 10. The regular index is at 13.5 which is higher than 12 it was when this thread started but came down from 15.
Both are at 3% yield.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

sambb
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by sambb » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:12 pm

nice call!

hilink73
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by hilink73 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:41 pm

ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:27 pm
Ding! Valuation alert.
Fundamental index EM are now under 10 F-p/e. Yes this is not 2016 lows in pricing, but earnings were way up to bring it back under 10. The regular index is at 13.5 which is higher than 12 it was when this thread started but came down from 15.
Both are at 3% yield.

Which index exactly?

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ray.james
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by ray.james » Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:54 pm

hilink73 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:41 pm
ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:27 pm
Ding! Valuation alert.
Fundamental index EM are now under 10 F-p/e. Yes this is not 2016 lows in pricing, but earnings were way up to bring it back under 10. The regular index is at 13.5 which is higher than 12 it was when this thread started but came down from 15.
Both are at 3% yield.

Which index exactly?
Russell RAFI Emerging Market Large Company Index
Funds: FNDE (schwab fundamental EM index)

FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index
VWO/VEMAX at vanguard are great funds that track this.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

hilink73
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by hilink73 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:14 pm

ray.james wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:54 pm
hilink73 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:41 pm
ray.james wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:27 pm
Ding! Valuation alert.
Fundamental index EM are now under 10 F-p/e. Yes this is not 2016 lows in pricing, but earnings were way up to bring it back under 10. The regular index is at 13.5 which is higher than 12 it was when this thread started but came down from 15.
Both are at 3% yield.

Which index exactly?
Russell RAFI Emerging Market Large Company Index
Funds: FNDE (schwab fundamental EM index)
Thanks, I'm using this ETF.
And TLTE FlexShares Morningstar Emerging Markets Factor Tilt Index Fund, too.

And for LCB it's Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF.

wolf359
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by wolf359 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:53 pm

News articles are starting to be posted about the sorry state of emerging markets again! https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/05/invest ... index.html

Are we getting near another bottom? After peaking in January, they've been on a steady decline all year.

Disclosure: I'm just eating popcorn and watching the show. While I have a small automatic investment in emerging markets every two weeks, I have no market timing opinion. I just like DCA'ing into equity assets that are volatile.

aristotelian
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by aristotelian » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:46 pm

I am staying the course (after some tax loss harvesting) but sure would like for OP to call the bottom again.

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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by livesoft » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:01 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:53 pm
After peaking in January, they've been on a steady decline all year.
That is not a true statement. There were some nice 4% to 6% pops this year after January. That is, the decline has not been steady.
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wolf359
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by wolf359 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:19 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:01 pm
wolf359 wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:53 pm
After peaking in January, they've been on a steady decline all year.
That is not a true statement. There were some nice 4% to 6% pops this year after January. That is, the decline has not been steady.
Emerging markets is very volatile, so it fluctuates. By "steady decline" I meant that it has had a downward trend line. Very little goes straight up or straight down. I'm also not trading -- I DCA in over time and simply hold. Despite some rallies, it has been lower each month than the month before. It is near its low point for the year today.

I don't mind, I keep buying.

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JamalJones
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by JamalJones » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:44 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:19 pm
livesoft wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:01 pm
wolf359 wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:53 pm
After peaking in January, they've been on a steady decline all year.
That is not a true statement. There were some nice 4% to 6% pops this year after January. That is, the decline has not been steady.
Emerging markets is very volatile, so it fluctuates. By "steady decline" I meant that it has had a downward trend line. Very little goes straight up or straight down. I'm also not trading -- I DCA in over time and simply hold. Despite some rallies, it has been lower each month than the month before. It is near its low point for the year today.

I don't mind, I keep buying.
Oh it's been volatile! Oh boy it sure has!!!!:

*1998 • -25.34%
-------------
*1999 • +66.84%
-------------
*2000 • -30.71% (Ouch!)
-------------
*2001 • -2.61%
-------------
*2002 • -6.16%
-------------
*2003 • +55.82% (Wow!)
-------------
*2004 • +25.55
-------------
*2005 • +34.00%
-------------
*2006 • +32.17%
-------------
*2007 • +39.38%
-------------
*2008 • -53.33% (Say What!?!?!)
-------------
*2009 • +78.51% (Holy Macaroni!)
-------------
*2010 • +18.88%
-------------
*2011 • -18.42%
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*2012 • +18.23%
-------------
*2013 • -2.60%
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*2014 • -2.19%
-------------
*2015 • -14.92
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*2016 • +11.19%
-------------
*2017 • +37.28%

Callan
TSP + Vanguard Roth IRA + Vanguard Taxable: 80% equities / 20% bonds | Yap, yap, yap, yap, - the bottom line is ya gotta buckle up the chin strap!

MJW
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by MJW » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:14 pm

EM seems to alternate between being a king-maker and being an incinerator of hopes and dreams.

You just have to buy them at the "right" time. :twisted:

bgf
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by bgf » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:27 pm

MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:14 pm
EM seems to alternate between being a king-maker and being an incinerator of hopes and dreams.

You just have to buy them at the "right" time. :twisted:
my experience with EM is that the frequency of its underperformance is high and the frequency of its outperformance is low but that the size of its outperformance, the "violence" of its upswings if you will, is very big.

psychologically, this is a description of a very difficult asset for people to hold. generally, people like investments that are frequently good, infrequently bad, and need not have huge swings in either direction, even huge up swings. assets that frequently underperform and have violent swings both ways are difficult to handle emotionally. this means people are more likely to sell at the wrong time and less likely to be fully invested when one of the huge rips happens.

you can either handle it or you can't.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

sksbog
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Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by sksbog » Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:43 pm

My regular contribution to 3 funds portfolio takes care of think kind of "market timing" :D

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vineviz
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Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:55 pm

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by vineviz » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:01 pm

bgf wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:27 pm
MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:14 pm
EM seems to alternate between being a king-maker and being an incinerator of hopes and dreams.

You just have to buy them at the "right" time. :twisted:
my experience with EM is that the frequency of its underperformance is high and the frequency of its outperformance is low but that the size of its outperformance, the "violence" of its upswings if you will, is very big.
I'm not sure what's driving that perception.

Comparing returns of VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Index) to VFINX (Vanguard 500 Index) from the inception of VEIEX, it has outperformed in VFINX in 12 of the 24 full years: precisely half the time.

That said, I agree that emerging markets stocks are among the most volatile an investor can own.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch

bgf
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Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:35 am

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Post by bgf » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:06 pm

vineviz wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:01 pm
bgf wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:27 pm
MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:14 pm
EM seems to alternate between being a king-maker and being an incinerator of hopes and dreams.

You just have to buy them at the "right" time. :twisted:
my experience with EM is that the frequency of its underperformance is high and the frequency of its outperformance is low but that the size of its outperformance, the "violence" of its upswings if you will, is very big.
I'm not sure what's driving that perception.

Comparing returns of VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Index) to VFINX (Vanguard 500 Index) from the inception of VEIEX, it has outperformed in VFINX in 12 of the 24 full years: precisely half the time.

That said, I agree that emerging markets stocks are among the most volatile an investor can own.
probably that i've only held it for the past 4-5 years.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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