2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

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femur
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2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by femur » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:39 am

I always find this chart interesting and thought to share it with Bogleheads:

Image


Im linking an imaged from a blog because I dont know how to link a pdf.

rkhusky
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by rkhusky » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:48 am

Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by TheRightKost87 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:53 am

rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
They've been at the bottom recently. I'm continuing to rebalance into them hoping we hit a 2003-2007 type run in the near future.
"The problem with diversification is that it works, whether or not we want it to"

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Leif
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Leif » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:13 pm

rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
It seems to be commodity based, so boom or bust. A good rebalance candidate.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:18 pm

Femur:

Thank you for posting the latest Callan PeriodicTable of Investment Returns. It is one of my favorite charts because 1) It demonstrates the impossibility of trying to market-time asset-class returns, and 2) It demonstrates Mr. Bogle's financial wisdom:
FORGET THE NEEDLE. BUY THE HAYSTACK.
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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woof755
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by woof755 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:30 pm

I am totally starting to see the pattern now.

Probably means I could use a nap.
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." | | --Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

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femur
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by femur » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:32 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:Femur:

Thank you for posting the latest Callan PeriodicTable of Investment Returns. It is one of my favorite charts because 1) It demonstrates the impossibility of trying to market-time asset-class returns, and 2) It demonstrates Mr. Bogle's financial wisdom:
FORGET THE NEEDLE. BUY THE HAYSTACK.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Thank YOU Mr. Larimore! I agree it is one of my favorite charts as well and i look forward to the yearly updates.

I would also like to think you for your wonderful 3-fund portfolio thread which I go back and read often. I implemented the three fund portfolio for my own investments thereby "buying the haystack".

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Taylor Larimore
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"The Three Fund Portfolio"

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:35 pm

Bogleheads:

Your link to THE THREE FUND PORTFOLIO

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:21 pm

Thanks for the heads up! I agree, the table is an excellent chart to show new investors.

The wiki has been updated: Callan periodic table of investment returns

For those interested in the gory details, the numbers have been crunched in two spreadsheets. Look in the Notes section.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

columbia
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by columbia » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:35 pm

rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
Not that I would, but it would be an interesting gambit to put all of one's international holdings in EM.

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David Jay
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by David Jay » Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:10 am

LadyGeek wrote:Thanks for the heads up! I agree, the table is an excellent chart to show new investors.

The wiki has been updated: Callan periodic table of investment returns

For those interested in the gory details, the numbers have been crunched in two spreadsheets. Look in the Notes section.
Thanks for all you do, LG!
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by HurdyGurdy » Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:12 am

Order-wise, 2015 was quite similar to 2014.

Not return-wise, obviously.

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by rkhusky » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:41 am

columbia wrote:
rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
Not that I would, but it would be an interesting gambit to put all of one's international holdings in EM.
You could make a killing if you could only predict which years EM was on the top or bottom.

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Twins Fan » Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:32 am

Seeing patterns where there are none... :happy

I find it interesting that the Russell 2000 just hovers right in the middle there for the most part. Who has the guts to throw all equities in the Russell 2000 and call it good enough? :twisted:

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woof755
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by woof755 » Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:51 am

columbia wrote:
rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
Not that I would, but it would be an interesting gambit to put all of one's international holdings in EM.
This has been written about (Swedroe "Reducing the risk of Black Swans") and also discussed here on the board. Search swedroe and emerging markets
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." | | --Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by dziuniek » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:24 am

Eeeh.... Seeing it all in one page, 2015 stunk didn't it? Very much MEH.

Twins Fan
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Twins Fan » Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:27 am

Well, it was a boring year. But, not nearly as stinky as 2008. :happy

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Leif
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by Leif » Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:39 pm

rkhusky wrote: You could make a killing if you could only predict which years EM was on the top or bottom.
Why waste time and money trying to guess its direction? Why not just buy low, sell high (rebalance)?
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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6miths
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by 6miths » Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:03 pm

I love this table! Thank you for posting.
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain

vencat
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by vencat » Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:26 pm

Actually Boglehead Tamales does a better Callan chart:

viewtopic.php?t=180882

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 15, 2016 5:54 pm

^^^ Thanks!

I have added this thread and Tamales' thread to the wiki: Callan periodic table of investment returns

I should clarify that I have registered on Callan Associates' site and downloaded the table directly. I have also requested and received permission to reproduce the table in the wiki.
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fortyofforty
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by fortyofforty » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:06 pm

Thanks for updating the table in wiki, LadyGeek. It's very enlightening.
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by sawhorse » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:49 pm

rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
Totally! Same with S&P Growth. What is the difference between Russell Growth and S&P Growth? Russell Growth has fewer extreme performances.

Is there a version with more diversified asset classes? This table is just stocks and bonds and seems redundant. Is there a version with TIPS, REITs, etc?

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by rkhusky » Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:16 pm

sawhorse wrote:
rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
Totally! Same with S&P Growth. What is the difference between Russell Growth and S&P Growth? Russell Growth has fewer extreme performances.

Is there a version with more diversified asset classes? This table is just stocks and bonds and seems redundant. Is there a version with TIPS, REITs, etc?
I believe that S&P refers to large cap and Russell to small cap.

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:07 pm

Callan has split the asset classes as:

- Russell 2000 - follows the Russell 2000 index, which is a small-cap index.
- Russell 2000 Value
- Russell 2000 Growth

- S&P 500 - large cap
- S&P 500 Growth
- S&P 500 Value

Russell index fact sheets are here: Russell US Indexes (Russell has merged with FTSE)

S&P 500 index fact sheets are here: S&P 500®, S&P 500 GROWTH, S&P 500 VALUE
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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by dziuniek » Sat Jan 16, 2016 12:52 pm

Twins Fan wrote:Well, it was a boring year. But, not nearly as stinky as 2008. :happy
True that! 2016 is providing some entertainment however!

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Re: 2015 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Post by sawhorse » Sat Jan 16, 2016 10:49 pm

rkhusky wrote:
sawhorse wrote:
rkhusky wrote:Interesting that Emerging Markets are either on the top or the bottom, rarely in the middle.
Totally! Same with S&P Growth. What is the difference between Russell Growth and S&P Growth? Russell Growth has fewer extreme performances.

Is there a version with more diversified asset classes? This table is just stocks and bonds and seems redundant. Is there a version with TIPS, REITs, etc?
I believe that S&P refers to large cap and Russell to small cap.
So small cap growth was actually less volatile than large cap growth? Very interesting.

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