The Most Important Chart of 2015

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ogrehead
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The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by ogrehead » Thu Jan 14, 2016 3:01 am

In light of recent market activities, I am sharing my rigorous, factor-based research on optimal asset allocation for the current conditions.

First, review this indicator:
Image
Notice how it starts just above 10, trends generally upward, peaks somewhere around August, before starting a secular decline ending the year in correction territory.

In light of these technical indicators, consider the allocation shown below in Pie A. Now forget Pie A, and look at Pie B. Seriously, LOOK AT IT!
Image
That's a good pie right there!

Finally, with this in mind, consider this chart. Do you notice anything about it?
Image
Notice how there is a red line, and also a blue line. Also notice how they are both trending downwards, at the same time. If you find yourself asking, "But ogrehead, what was happening in the first quarter?" Don't ask stupid questions. The chart speaks for itself.

Proof positive that continued softness in the equities market will lead to prices continuing to drop until they reach support levels, at which time we can expect sideways or upward movement in prices until a new resistance level is established.

Stay tuned for next year's market analysis!

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JoMoney
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by JoMoney » Thu Jan 14, 2016 4:06 am

Clearly you have a deep understanding of the markets. I've seen several very similar postings in the major financial media, using different data sets, but not as clear and informative as yours. I'm sure even the most well trained and experienced chartists will find your findings inciteful.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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ofcmetz
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by ofcmetz » Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:03 am

OMG, :sharebeer. I actually read your post and tried to interpret the charts before realizing your point that technical analysis makes even less sense than your beautiful pies. Clearly you are onto something.

And now I can't stop laughing.
Never underestimate the power of the force of low cost index funds.

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oldzey
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by oldzey » Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:08 am

"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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JoMoney
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by JoMoney » Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:42 am

^ In light of that article, and the OP's charts, maybe we should consider the past performance of blue lines. Brighter days may be ahead of us
Image
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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obgyn65
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by obgyn65 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:44 am

How is this thread actionable? :happy
"The two most important days in someone's life are the day that they are born and the day they discover why." -John Maxwell

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Toons
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by Toons » Thu Jan 14, 2016 6:10 am

Nice to wake up and chuckle with my first cup of coffee in hand :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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alec
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by alec » Thu Jan 14, 2016 6:21 am

obgyn65 wrote:How is this thread actionable? :happy
I might want to buy or sell my crap. :mrgreen:
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Levett
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by Levett » Thu Jan 14, 2016 6:38 am

I find Pie A more aesthetically pleasing--that's better than actionable!

Lev

johnubc
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by johnubc » Thu Jan 14, 2016 6:42 am

Levett wrote:I find Pie A more aesthetically pleasing--that's better than actionable!

Lev
I am not sure he seems to be Crap tilting in chart A - is that the correct AA?

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rustymutt
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by rustymutt » Thu Jan 14, 2016 6:44 am

You failed to mention that whipped cream is good when reading those pie charts! Coffee also.
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pvd101
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by pvd101 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:47 am

Looks like contango with divergence based on various outliers. :greedy

Levett
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by Levett » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:27 am

pvd observed:

"Looks like contango with divergence based on various outliers."

I don't know how I missed that! :wink:

L:ev

junetree
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by junetree » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:29 am

Thank you for making everything so much clearer. I feel incredibly enlightened! :sharebeer

The Wizard
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by The Wizard » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:41 am

JoMoney wrote:Clearly you have a deep understanding of the markets. I've seen several very similar postings in the major financial media, using different data sets, but not as clear and informative as yours. I'm sure even the most well trained and experienced chartists will find your findings inciteful.
Insightful, even!
Attempted new signature...

ResearchMed
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by ResearchMed » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:48 am

But... WHAT IS THE BLUE LINE DOING *THIS* MORNING?

It's almost noon already!

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

Miriam2
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by Miriam2 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:08 pm

ogrehead -
I know you thought Pie B was superior to Pie A, but the colors in Pie A are more beautiful and balanced.

I called Vanguard to buy the Boglehead Pie A funds - Some crap, Other crap, Magic, Nuts, Bolts and Trivia - and they had no clue what I was talking about. Perhaps you need better exposure 8-)

Texanbybirth
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by Texanbybirth » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:10 pm

Lol, awesome.

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Boglenaut
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by Boglenaut » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:47 pm

Ogrehead,

I wish I had known you to collaborate when I made this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUR1wR1SX3w

Your ideas would have fit in it nicely!

I always thought it would be fun to make a chart that was randomly generated with a slight upward bias, and have someone do a technical analysis on it.

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nisiprius
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by nisiprius » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:56 pm

Suggestions for improvement on the line chart: Present less data. Start the axis at six, not zero, to dramatize the visual effect of the changes. Add 3D graphics. Add gradient-shaded tinting. Add sound effects. Add animation.

And for the pie chart: visuals illustrating the different kinds of crap.
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surfstar
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by surfstar » Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:00 pm

obgyn65 wrote:How is this thread actionable? :happy

I'm rebalancing from blue into orange. Or was that red?

If you happen to be color-blind this will be a very hard strategy to implement!

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LadyGeek
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Re: The Most Important Chart of 2015

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:04 pm

This thread has run its course and is locked (not actionable, going nowhere).

Also, please keep the language family friendly. I removed a post that went over the edge on the use of c___.
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