madsinger monthly report (December 2015)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2013 (17 years 0 months, 10 years 0 months, 5 years 0 months, 3 years 0 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                December   YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2015     2015    2013    2011    2006    1999
VFINX            -1.59%    1.25%  14.96%  12.40%   7.19%   4.89%
Sheltered Sam    -1.85%   -2.79%   9.88%   8.33%   6.10%   7.04%
Hot Hands        -0.89%    0.94%  14.70%  11.00%   5.83%  11.44%
                
Newsletter G     -1.65%    1.40%  14.70%  11.21%   7.68%   9.25%
Newsletter G-IND -2.36%   -0.50%  12.88%  10.48%   7.26%   6.18%
s&d              -1.54%   -1.21%   8.07%   7.10%   6.09%   7.02%
3 fund           -1.71%   -1.11%   8.20%   7.18%   5.93%   5.39%
LS G             -1.72%   -1.17%   8.68%   7.49%   5.39%   4.81%

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Wellington       -1.37%    0.06%   9.55%   8.98%   7.27%   7.15%
Newsletter CG    -1.46%    1.20%  13.06%  10.68%   7.21%   7.65%
coffeehouse      -1.35%   -0.93%   7.51%   7.25%   6.32%   6.84%
STAR             -1.54%   -0.15%   8.08%   7.68%   6.05%   6.36%
LS MG            -1.38%   -0.57%   6.99%   6.53%   5.28%   4.96%
                  
Wellesley        -0.78%    1.28%   6.12%   7.60%   6.97%   6.67%
Newsletter Inc   -0.88%    1.90%  10.32%   9.49%   6.39%   5.67%
LS CG            -1.10%   -0.17%   5.21%   5.29%   4.84%   4.80%
                  
madsinger        -1.53%   -2.77%   6.53%   5.73%   5.55%   
madsinger PP     -0.61%   -2.60%            

[cfs]

Thank you.

Thanks Brad for the monthly report. Tuff year of 2015 in the markets. Wishing everyone a productive 2016.

Thanks again.

[madsinger]

2015 is in the books, and the portfolio returns are mostly flat across the board. Full year returns all within a couple of percentage points of zero. The biggest hit to portfolios were anything gold/energy/natural resources (precious metals fund down over -29%). Also, emerging markets down over -15%.

The madsinger permanent portfolio had three components near zero, and gold down nearly -12%. (cash was the winner this year...who knew?)

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           STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH     GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January   -3.14%    9.37%    0.08%    8.37%   3.40%
February   5.68%   -5.65%    0.08%   -5.79%  -1.43%
March     -1.61%    1.13%    0.08%   -2.22%  -0.67%
April      0.91%   -3.06%    0.08%   -0.09%  -0.50%
May        1.24%   -2.15%    0.09%    0.61%   0.00%
June      -1.97%   -3.72%    0.08%   -1.48%  -1.74%

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July       2.04%    4.22%    0.09%   -6.70%   0.01%
August    -6.07%   -0.71%    0.09%    3.78%  -1.13%
September -2.52%    1.92%    0.08%   -1.82%  -0.66%
October    8.60%   -0.51%    0.09%    1.88%   2.60%
November   0.27%   -0.80%    0.08%   -6.72%  -1.71%
December  -1.63%   -0.34%    0.08%   -0.49%  -0.61%
               
YTD        0.42%   -0.75%    1.01%  -11.80%  -2.60%

[madsinger]

Looking ahead to 2016, for the "hot hands" idea (best performing diversified fund from previous year), a sorting of the Vanguard funds by asset class shows:

Domestic: US Growth 8.47%
International: International Explorer: 8.60%
Sector: Health Care: 12.65%

I will select one of these. I don't know if my choice will be the "official" choice.

-Brad.

[Peculiar_Investor]

Per SOP, link to this topic has been added to the wiki, 2015 reports.

[gkaplan]

As of December 31, 2015, my year-to-date return is -2.03%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year rates of return are 8.74%, -2.03%, 4.69%, 4.23%, and 5.06%, respectively.

My best performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares with a year-to-date return of 3.41%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are 30.30%, 3.41%, 5.84%, and 3.51% respectively.

My worst fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares, with a year-to-date return of -14.40%. My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rates of return are -1.22%, -14.40%, -6.65, and -4.57%, respectively.

My overall target allocation is 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

10.00%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
10.00%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06.00%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
14.00%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
14.00%: Foreign Markets Large and Small – Emerging
40.00%: Fixed Income

As of December 31, 2015, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 60/40. Specifically, my current allocations are as follows.

09.94%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VVIAX)
09.94%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSIAX)
05.95%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEUSX)
05.98%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPADX)
13.97%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VFSVX)
14.08%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
07.80%: Fixed Income – TIPS (VAIPX)
32.35%: Fixed Income – TSP (G Fund)

(Totals do not add up to 100% because of rounding.)

Submitted for your approval.

[investor]

Thanks Brad.

investor