A couple of inquiries by PM for a new edition of the hedge fund contest, so let's see how many of you are interested enough to enter for 2016. I'm going to stick pretty much with the 2015 rules because they seemed to work well.
As I'm late, your picking deadline is 9:30 EST on Monday, January 4, about 18 hours from now, so your research time is very limited.
Complete set of rules for 2016
Pick a fancy name for your hedge fund. Show some creativity. A panel of judges will choose the best. Winner of the name contest deemed to purchase long positions at 1% discount and sell short positions at 1% premium!
Before 9:30 am EST on 4 Jan 2016, in this thread, pick up to three stocks to go long and up to three to short. Equal dollar amounts are placed on each position, long or short.
Stock only. No bonds, no options, no funds.
No trades during the year, except that you can elect at any time during normal exchange business hours to "freeze" a price for any individual position at that day's closing price, i.e. liquidate any position. (Each position carries this option; you can choose to freeze different positions on different days.) Other than that, you're stuck with what you choose for the year.
If a stock is taken out in a merger or a bankruptcy during 2016, I will do my best to do the right thing. An all cash offer will result in a freeze at the takeout price. An all stock offer will result in the conversion of the position to the acquiring company's shares. Mixed cash and stock offers, you'll just have to trust me to saw things off fairly.
The universe from which to choose is the Russell 3000 as of 26 June 2015. If you pick shares not on this list and it's not caught and corrected before the deadline, your portfolio will be disqualified.
Starting prices are the 4 Jan 2016 close, ending prices will be the 30 Dec 2016 close. (Adjustments may be made to either in case of crazy spreads, at my sole discretion.)
Dividends won't count because ...
It's all automated to make it easy on Norbert.
Post your picks in this thread before 9:30 am EST tomorrow.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Infidelity Contrabandista fund.
My picks:
Go long on EDMC. (Tanelorn's winning pick that lost 57% last year. Congrats, Tan...).
Go short on SALT, (Margin of Buffett shorted it last year and it gained 432%. Sorry, Marg...)
(I have no idea what EDMC or SALT stand for. Doesn't matter. If I win I will attract billions in new investor money and buy myself a boat. On second thought, what would I do with a boat? Maybe I will buy a couple of senators instead).
I was tempted to go long on HUEY and short on MRTN, but there is no HUEY. Pity.
If I lose big time I will use the same strategy but change my fund name next year. Maybe my username too.
The Iolanthe Fund.
Long on Agilent. (A)
Short on Zillow Group. (Z)
Last edited by nisiprius on Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Name: The Lowest Rated Fund
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Long
AAPL - Apple Inc.
MCD - McDonald's Corp.
V - Visa Inc.
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Short
CAT - Caterpillar Inc.
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
SHLD - Sears Holdings Corp.
Long: FLWS - Flowers.com. It was first on the list.
Long: HIVE - Aerohive networks. I like bees.
Long: ZNGA - Zynga, a social video game services, was last on the list.
Short: SPOK - A communications company. I like Stark Trek, but Spock is past his prime.
Short: SNOW - Intrawest resorts. It's January - all rain and no snow.
Short: MSG - Madison Square Garden. I don't like NY sports teams and hope they tank.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Long: FLWS - Flowers.com. It was first on the list.
Long: HIVE - Aerohive networks. I like bees.
Long: ZNGA - Zynga, a social video game services, was last on the list.
Short: SPOK - A communications company. I like Stark Trek, but Spock is past his prime.
Short: SNOW - Intrawest resorts. It's January - all rain and no snow.
Short: MSG - Madison Square Garden. I don't like NY sports teams and hope they tank.
I admire your stock picking system.
My gf invited me to something at MSG last week. At first I thought she wanted to go out for Chinese food.
Spock is past his prime
He died last year. Pity. He was a nice man. It came out that he was disguising himself as an earthling named Nimoy all these years. Pasted down the ears. He had us all fooled.
Alas poor "Trixter" was not able elude the long reach of the 2015 market psychosis and will itself go under the knife to be dismembered for shark bait.
In its place this season, we bring you an intrepid new adventure involving strange, weird, and unbelievable tales of unequaled equity picks, plays, and pandemonium.
Name: The Wrecked Files
Motto: The Money is Out There
Long:
FOX
DAN
FBIZ
Short:
ALEX
SPR
SYNA
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 |
lang may yer lum reek
Name: Handle Messiah's Investment Firm
Motto: "We have a firm grasp on market fundamentals in our area of specialty, and as we handle your money as your portfolio's savior we promise to deliver your returns net a 10% fee."
(edit: Alternate Motto: "If God trusts us with his cash, so should you")
Long: (Here our positions indicate our market analysts belief that we have found the true identity of Banksye.)
* BNK - Bankers Petroleum
* SE - Spectra Energy
* CJES - C & J Energy Services
Short: (Our short positions indicate a clear preference towards Greek management and a negative outlook on Nordic industries in this challenging global economy)
* ZEUS
* ATE
* THOR
Last edited by triceratop on Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
"Economics is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions." - John Maynard Keynes
protagonist wrote:Infidelity Contrabandista fund.
My picks:
Go long on EDMC. (Tanelorn's winning pick that lost 57% last year. Congrats, Tan...).
Go short on SALT, (Margin of Buffett shorted it last year and it gained 432%. Sorry, Marg...)
Contrarian indeed. I will not be betting on EDMC this year (2016 fund will be forthcoming), but if I had to pick, I would be short well before long. I think there's at least 25% downside from the recent $0.07 price. Some stocks revert to the mean, while others just slowly go to zero...
Delivering Alpha Fund:
Long : AMD, CVX,
Short: WMT, NFLX, SHLD Amended per your post, VRX(Valent-pharma)is not in the list Russel 3k // Thx for running the contest Norbert.
Last edited by snowshoes on Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
Long: NOV - National Oilwell Varco, Inc.
Short: SHLD - Sears Holdings Corporation
Last edited by MnD on Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.
