REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:03 pm

Bogleheads:

Ralph and I are pleased to announce Registration for the 2016 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's see what we can learn from the 2015 Contest:

* We had 537 Bogleheads Register in January 2015. We also registered 15 Wall Street professional forecasters . This was are largest enrollment since Taylor started the contest in 2001 to demonstrate it is impossible to forecast the stock market.

* The S&P 500 Index began the year at 2058.90. It finished the year at 2043.94 for a loss of -0.7%. If dividends are included (as they should be) the Index gained +1.4% during the year.

* Forecasts ranged from a high of 2800 to a low of 1061 and everywhere between. It proves Mr. Bogle point about forecasters: "Nobody knows nothing."

* Bogleheads are better "guessers" than Wall Street professional "forecasters": The average Boglehead "guess" was 1958.40. The average professional "forecast" was 1949.14.

VictoriaF won the 2015 Boglehead Contest with her guess of 2,048.00. You can read more HERE.

Mr. Bogle and I will each send a copy of one of our books chosen by Victoria as her prize. We offer the same free prize to the 2016 contest winner.

Rules for the 2016 Boglehead Contest:

*Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2016.
*Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
*In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
*Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET, January 10, 2016
*Post your forecast below.

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK !!

Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sat Apr 02, 2016 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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mudfud
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mudfud » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:04 pm

2244.

Thanks,
Mud
"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?" | | Image

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Higman
Posts: 212
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Higman » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:07 pm

2143.51

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theduke
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by theduke » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:08 pm

2043.94

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:10 pm

1313.13 is my annual "unlucky joke". Here's hoping I never win.

Perhaps one of these years I'll try deuces wild.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

Miriam2
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Miriam2 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:11 pm

2062.00

veggivet
Posts: 213
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by veggivet » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:11 pm

2289.42

FrugalFrida
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FrugalFrida » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:12 pm

2220.00

This was my guess last year too :wink:

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Hodor
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Hodor » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:12 pm

2125.

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:12 pm

2092.99

I use a precise formula, hence the need for decimal places.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Deadwood
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Deadwood » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:12 pm

put me in for 2175

fkampere
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by fkampere » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:13 pm

1925.99

JohnnyB
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JohnnyB » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:13 pm

2029.16

Emeralds
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Emeralds » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:13 pm

2272.77

Willmunny
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Willmunny » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:14 pm

1802.00

AQ
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by AQ » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:15 pm

2216.66

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jfn111
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jfn111 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:16 pm

2145.15

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cfs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cfs » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:17 pm

2167.39
~ Donating Member ~

MP1233
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MP1233 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:19 pm

2085.81

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g$$
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by g$$ » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:20 pm

2331.00

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Roverdog
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Roverdog » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:20 pm

2238.89


Thanks!

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BigFoot48
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BigFoot48 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:21 pm

Pessimistic year: 1,980.00
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

theDON2050
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by theDON2050 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:21 pm

2065.40

clip651
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by clip651 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:22 pm

2240

cj

Avo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Avo » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:25 pm

2222.22.

Just because it's easy to remember.

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pennstater2005
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by pennstater2005 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:26 pm

2339.51
“Life is short, Break the Rules, Forgive quickly, Kiss slowly, Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably, And never regret anything that made you smile" - Unknown

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simplesimon
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by simplesimon » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:26 pm

2773.11

BeneIRA
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BeneIRA » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:27 pm

1,867.

Brian96
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Brian96 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:27 pm

2444.87

Joy and peace to all.

KingsBench
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by KingsBench » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:28 pm

2099.00

samsmith
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by samsmith » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:28 pm

1909.

investor
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by investor » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:28 pm

I like up 15%

2350.532

investor

trueblueky
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by trueblueky » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:29 pm

2098.82
That's up 2% in honor of Yogi plus another 14 to honor Ernie Banks, two greats we lost in 2015. Of course, I'd take up 14% plus another 2.

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Christine_NM
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Christine_NM » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:30 pm

My guess is 2263.49

Staying with last year's number till we get there.

Happy 2016 (no that's not my guess!!) to all Bogleheads and everyone else too
10% cash 45% stock 45% bond. Retired, w/d rate 1.5%

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patrick013
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by patrick013 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:31 pm

2205.01
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

joebh
Posts: 1708
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by joebh » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:31 pm

2243 is my guesstimate.

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LowER
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LowER » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:31 pm

2137.75

dore
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dore » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:34 pm

1847.47

southport
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by southport » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:35 pm

2151.52

harlan247
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by harlan247 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:38 pm

First year to enter: 2320

mc7
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mc7 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:40 pm

2162.31

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vitaflo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by vitaflo » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:42 pm

1946.64

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JMacDonald
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JMacDonald » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:43 pm

2227.67
Best Wishes, | Joe

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k66
Posts: 406
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by k66 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:45 pm

3294.40
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

Minot
Posts: 407
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Minot » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:46 pm

$2086.18

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randomizer
Posts: 650
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by randomizer » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:47 pm

2198.12

whonoze
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by whonoze » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:48 pm

2180.
Who knows?
Just my two cents | Worth about what two cents can buy nowadays

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Tortuga
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Tortuga » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:49 pm

2177

Tortuga

renue74
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by renue74 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:51 pm

2101

Thanks

grok87
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by grok87 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:51 pm

my guess is 2126.
"...people always live for ever when there is any annuity to be paid them"- Jane Austen

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