REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
- Taylor Larimore
- Posts: 32842
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
- Location: Miami FL
REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Bogleheads:
Ralph and I are pleased to announce Registration for the 2016 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's see what we can learn from the 2015 Contest:
* We had 537 Bogleheads Register in January 2015. We also registered 15 Wall Street professional forecasters . This was are largest enrollment since Taylor started the contest in 2001 to demonstrate it is impossible to forecast the stock market.
* The S&P 500 Index began the year at 2058.90. It finished the year at 2043.94 for a loss of -0.7%. If dividends are included (as they should be) the Index gained +1.4% during the year.
* Forecasts ranged from a high of 2800 to a low of 1061 and everywhere between. It proves Mr. Bogle point about forecasters: "Nobody knows nothing."
* Bogleheads are better "guessers" than Wall Street professional "forecasters": The average Boglehead "guess" was 1958.40. The average professional "forecast" was 1949.14.
VictoriaF won the 2015 Boglehead Contest with her guess of 2,048.00. You can read more HERE.
Mr. Bogle and I will each send a copy of one of our books chosen by Victoria as her prize. We offer the same free prize to the 2016 contest winner.
Rules for the 2016 Boglehead Contest:
*Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2016.
*Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
*In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
*Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET, January 10, 2016
*Post your forecast below.
HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK !!
Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
Ralph and I are pleased to announce Registration for the 2016 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's see what we can learn from the 2015 Contest:
* We had 537 Bogleheads Register in January 2015. We also registered 15 Wall Street professional forecasters . This was are largest enrollment since Taylor started the contest in 2001 to demonstrate it is impossible to forecast the stock market.
* The S&P 500 Index began the year at 2058.90. It finished the year at 2043.94 for a loss of -0.7%. If dividends are included (as they should be) the Index gained +1.4% during the year.
* Forecasts ranged from a high of 2800 to a low of 1061 and everywhere between. It proves Mr. Bogle point about forecasters: "Nobody knows nothing."
* Bogleheads are better "guessers" than Wall Street professional "forecasters": The average Boglehead "guess" was 1958.40. The average professional "forecast" was 1949.14.
VictoriaF won the 2015 Boglehead Contest with her guess of 2,048.00. You can read more HERE.
Mr. Bogle and I will each send a copy of one of our books chosen by Victoria as her prize. We offer the same free prize to the 2016 contest winner.
Rules for the 2016 Boglehead Contest:
*Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2016.
*Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
*In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
*Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET, January 10, 2016
*Post your forecast below.
HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK !!
Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sat Apr 02, 2016 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2244.
Thanks,
Mud
Thanks,
Mud
- Mel Lindauer
- Moderator
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- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 7:49 pm
- Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
- Contact:
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
1313.13 is my annual "unlucky joke". Here's hoping I never win.
Perhaps one of these years I'll try deuces wild.
Perhaps one of these years I'll try deuces wild.
Best Regards - Mel |
|
Semper Fi
-
- Posts: 100
- Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 5:39 am
- Location: Sweden
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2220.00
This was my guess last year too
This was my guess last year too
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2092.99
I use a precise formula, hence the need for decimal places.
I use a precise formula, hence the need for decimal places.
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2167.39
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2238.89
Thanks!
Thanks!
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Pessimistic year: 1,980.00
Retired |
Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 18-time loser
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- Posts: 124
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:56 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2222.22.
Just because it's easy to remember.
Just because it's easy to remember.
- pennstater2005
- Posts: 2509
- Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2012 8:50 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2339.51
“If you think nobody cares if you're alive, try missing a couple of car payments.” – Earl Wilson
- simplesimon
- Posts: 4578
- Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 7:53 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2444.87
Joy and peace to all.
Joy and peace to all.
-
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:25 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
I like up 15%
2350.532
investor
2350.532
investor
-
- Posts: 2365
- Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 3:50 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2098.82
That's up 2% in honor of Yogi plus another 14 to honor Ernie Banks, two greats we lost in 2015. Of course, I'd take up 14% plus another 2.
That's up 2% in honor of Yogi plus another 14 to honor Ernie Banks, two greats we lost in 2015. Of course, I'd take up 14% plus another 2.
- Christine_NM
- Posts: 2796
- Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:13 am
- Location: New Mexico
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
My guess is 2263.49
Staying with last year's number till we get there.
Happy 2016 (no that's not my guess!!) to all Bogleheads and everyone else too
Staying with last year's number till we get there.
Happy 2016 (no that's not my guess!!) to all Bogleheads and everyone else too
16% cash 49% stock 35% bond. Retired, w/d rate 2.5%
- patrick013
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:49 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2205.01
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2243 is my guesstimate.
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
First year to enter: 2320
- JMacDonald
- Posts: 2386
- Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 4:53 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
3294.40
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 |
lang may yer lum reek
- randomizer
- Posts: 1547
- Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:46 pm
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2180.
Who knows?
Who knows?
Just my two cents |
Worth about what two cents can buy nowadays
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2177
Tortuga
Tortuga
Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
2101
Thanks
Thanks