REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

Ralph and I are pleased to announce Registration for the 2016 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's see what we can learn from the 2015 Contest:

* We had 537 Bogleheads Register in January 2015. We also registered 15 Wall Street professional forecasters . This was are largest enrollment since Taylor started the contest in 2001 to demonstrate it is impossible to forecast the stock market.

* The S&P 500 Index began the year at 2058.90. It finished the year at 2043.94 for a loss of -0.7%. If dividends are included (as they should be) the Index gained +1.4% during the year.

* Forecasts ranged from a high of 2800 to a low of 1061 and everywhere between. It proves Mr. Bogle point about forecasters: "Nobody knows nothing."

* Bogleheads are better "guessers" than Wall Street professional "forecasters": The average Boglehead "guess" was 1958.40. The average professional "forecast" was 1949.14.

VictoriaF won the 2015 Boglehead Contest with her guess of 2,048.00. You can read more HERE.

Mr. Bogle and I will each send a copy of one of our books chosen by Victoria as her prize. We offer the same free prize to the 2016 contest winner.

Rules for the 2016 Boglehead Contest:

*Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2016.
*Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
*In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
*Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET, January 10, 2016
*Post your forecast below.

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK !!

Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Sat Apr 02, 2016 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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mudfud
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mudfud »

2244.

Thanks,
Mud
"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?" | | Image
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Higman
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Higman »

2143.51
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theduke
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by theduke »

2043.94
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Mel Lindauer
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mel Lindauer »

1313.13 is my annual "unlucky joke". Here's hoping I never win.

Perhaps one of these years I'll try deuces wild.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Miriam2
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Miriam2 »

2062.00
veggivet
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by veggivet »

2289.42
FrugalFrida
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FrugalFrida »

2220.00

This was my guess last year too :wink:
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Hodor
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Hodor »

2125.
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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek »

2092.99

I use a precise formula, hence the need for decimal places.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Deadwood
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Deadwood »

put me in for 2175
It's not far, we can walk.
fkampere
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by fkampere »

1925.99
JohnnyB
Posts: 26
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JohnnyB »

2029.16
Emeralds
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Emeralds »

2272.77
Willmunny
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Willmunny »

1802.00
AQ
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by AQ »

2216.66
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jfn111
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jfn111 »

2145.15
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cfs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cfs »

2167.39
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
MP1233
Posts: 134
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by MP1233 »

2085.81
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g$$
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by g$$ »

2331.00
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Roverdog
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Roverdog »

2238.89


Thanks!
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BigFoot48
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BigFoot48 »

Pessimistic year: 1,980.00
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 18-time loser
theDON2050
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by theDON2050 »

2065.40
clip651
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by clip651 »

2240

cj
Avo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Avo »

2222.22.

Just because it's easy to remember.
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pennstater2005
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by pennstater2005 »

2339.51
“If you think nobody cares if you're alive, try missing a couple of car payments.” – Earl Wilson
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simplesimon
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by simplesimon »

2773.11
BeneIRA
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BeneIRA »

1,867.
Brian96
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Brian96 »

2444.87

Joy and peace to all.
KingsBench
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by KingsBench »

2099.00
samsmith
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by samsmith »

1909.
investor
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by investor »

I like up 15%

2350.532

investor
trueblueky
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by trueblueky »

2098.82
That's up 2% in honor of Yogi plus another 14 to honor Ernie Banks, two greats we lost in 2015. Of course, I'd take up 14% plus another 2.
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Christine_NM
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Christine_NM »

My guess is 2263.49

Staying with last year's number till we get there.

Happy 2016 (no that's not my guess!!) to all Bogleheads and everyone else too
16% cash 49% stock 35% bond. Retired, w/d rate 2.5%
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patrick013
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by patrick013 »

2205.01
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle
joebh
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by joebh »

2243 is my guesstimate.
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LowER
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LowER »

2137.75
dore
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dore »

1847.47
southport
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by southport »

2151.52
harlan247
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by harlan247 »

First year to enter: 2320
mc7
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mc7 »

2162.31
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vitaflo
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by vitaflo »

1946.64
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JMacDonald
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JMacDonald »

2227.67
Best Wishes, | Joe
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k66
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by k66 »

3294.40
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek
Minot
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Minot »

$2086.18
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randomizer
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by randomizer »

2198.12
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!
whonoze
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by whonoze »

2180.
Who knows?
Just my two cents | Worth about what two cents can buy nowadays
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Tortuga
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Tortuga »

2177

Tortuga
renue74
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by renue74 »

2101

Thanks
grok87
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by grok87 »

my guess is 2126.
RIP Mr. Bogle.
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