Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Topic Author
Bogle_Feet
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:56 pm

Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Bogle_Feet »

Ken Moraif the market timer told his clients to sell all of their stocks (I guess) on August 21st. Well now stocks have gone up past that sell point of his. I read that he missed his last 2 market timing calls. His clients might be missing the boat for the 3rd time in a row if things don't change soon. On Sept 28 the S&P held it's ground and never dipped below the previous Aug 25 low. Today it took out the 2 previous highs. Seems bullish to me.
User avatar
Tycoon
Posts: 1500
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:06 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Tycoon »

He makes up for it with his world famous cookies.
Emotionless, prognostication free investing. Ignoring the noise and economists since 1979. Getting rich off of "smart people's" behavioral mistakes.
User avatar
Topic Author
Bogle_Feet
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:56 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Bogle_Feet »

If the cookies are good then who cares if I'll be missing out on thousands of dollars worth of gains. When's the next seminar????
The Wizard
Posts: 13356
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:45 pm
Location: Reading, MA

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by The Wizard »

By selling on August 21st or 22nd, folks side stepped that big drop on the 24th.
Next question is, when did he instruct his followers to move back into stocks?
If he did so at the recent market low point of 9/28 or 9/29, then they made out OK.
We need both sides of the timing card for proper evaluation...
Attempted new signature...
Kaufmanrider
Posts: 127
Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:32 am

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Kaufmanrider »

As of Oct 4 email he is still out and he expects the market to continue down. He is not your normal market timer. His philosophy is Buy and Hold, then sell and get out before a bear market and stay out until the bulls run again.
gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by gkaplan »

Kaufmanrider wrote:As of Oct 4 email he is still out and he expects the market to continue down. He is not your normal market timer. His philosophy is Buy and Hold, then sell and get out before a bear market and stay out until the bulls run again.
How is that not market timing?
Gordon
Steven in NC
Posts: 117
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:43 am

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Steven in NC »

This is the first correction I have experienced since going to the three fund portfolio. I feel so much better. Prior to this I was always anxious. Anxious on when to bail out. Then anxious of when to get back in. Wash, rinse, repeat. I was always in anxious mode. Like I said, now I feel so much better. To each, his own though, I don't begrudge anyone who can handle it and make the right decisions that are best for their personal situation.
DFAMAN
Posts: 114
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

I have posted about Ken Moraif before. He employs a market timing system based on 200 day moving averages (although he claims that there is some additional proprietary "secret sauce"). Market timing based on moving averages may very well protect from really bad bear markets, but the question is how much upside is given up in attempting to follow such a strategy. I took a very simplistic look at where a Moraif client, on the one hand, and a "buy and hold" (or BH) guy, on the other hand, would have come out if they both invested $1,000,000 at the low point of the Great Recession (March 10, 2009). For simplicity, I assumed that all stock investments were in the S&P 500, I ignored dividends (even though the Moraif client would have forgone dividends while out of the market and would have been earning very little sitting in cash), and I ignored the advisory fee (shown in Moraif's brochure filed with the SEC as generally 1.25%) that the Moraif client would have had the pleasure of paying even while sitting for periods in cash. I also assumed that the Moraif guy's investment was in a before-tax account, as there obviously would be additional tax leakages if the Moraif strategy were followed in a taxable account.

The Moraif client would have been out of equities from March 10, 2009 to at least June 1 of 2009 (I can't find anything showing the exact date in June Moraif advised to reenter the market, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that it was June 1, as the market kept rising during the month). On June 1, 2010, the S&P closed at 943, or 31% higher than the March 10 close. So, the Moraif client would still have $1,000,000 but the BH would have $1,310,000.

On June 8, 2010, Moraif advised his clients to exit the market again. The S&P closed at 1,062, which was up 12.6% from the time Moraif reentered the market. So, the Moraif guy would have $1,126,000 and the BH would have $1,475,060.

On October 6, 2010, Moraif advised to reenter the market. The S&P was at 1159, or up 9.1% from when he last advised to exit. The Moraif guy would still have his $1,126,000, but the BH would have $1,609,400.

On August 5, 2011, Moraif advised his clients to exit the market again. The S&P was at 1199, or up 3.5% from when he last re-entered the market. So, the Moraif guy would have $1,165,410 and the BH would have $1,665,729.

On January 19, 2012, Moraif advised his clients to re-enter the market. The S&P was at 1314, or up 9.6% from when Moraif last advised to exit the market. The Moraif guy would still have $1,165,410 and the BH would have $1,825,639.

On his radio show that aired August 22, 2015, Moraif said that the "sell" point had not yet been hit, but he apparently sent email alerts the evening of August 21 (which was a Friday) advising his clients to sell (the email indicated that the radio show was recorded earlier on Friday and they ad not yet hit the "sell" point then). So, if somebody acted on his advice on Monday, August 24, 2015 (and assuming that they owned mutual fund shares, so they could only settle their "sell" trade at close of market), the Moraif guy would be selling at 1893, which was the closing price of the S&P that day. This represented a 44.1% increase from the point in 2012 when they last re-entered the market, so the Moraif guy would have $1,679,341, and the BH would have $2,799,114.

As of this past Friday, the S&P closed at 2015. The Moraif guy would still have his $1,679,341 but the BH would have $2,799,114, which is $1,119,772 (66.7%) more than the Moraif guy would have.

I listen to sometimes for entertainment value. He ALWAYS says that his clients were out of the market for all of 2008 and until June of 2009. However, it seems to me that to give a full picture he should talk about these other times that he's advised people to get out of the market and what the impact has been. He definitely has a thriving business, as he manages over $2.6 billion (mainly for "mom and pop" folks who are not high net worth individuals, according to his ADV). That $30 million plus (per year) in fees from the mom and pops seems like a nice income (for him and his partners), but they certainly spend a fair amount on infomercials.
lee1026
Posts: 395
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:47 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by lee1026 »

Starting from the all time low is a wee bit unfair though. A better point would be to start from the initial "sell" order given before the 2008 plunge, assuming he gave one.
DFAMAN
Posts: 114
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

Fair point that starting at the all time low might be a bit unfair, but the fact is that he manages MUCH more money now than he did before the Great Recession. He has used the fact that his clients were out of the market during the Great Recession as the selling point to build his business so that he now has multi-billion in assets under management. People who bought in with him at any point in the past 6 years (at any point - not just the low point) have left a lot on the table during the time that he predicted two out of the last zero bear markets (and we'll see whether he's right or wrong this time).
User avatar
Toons
Posts: 13761
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Toons »

I am out of the loop .
Who is Ken Moraif :shock:

Update.
I found out who he is. :happy
https://moneymatters.net/news-media/str ... ideos.html
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 29874
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Market Timing

Post by Taylor Larimore »

DFAMAN:

I would like to commend you for your lengthy analysis of a market timer's actual results vs. his claimed results.

If anyone doubts the futility of timing stock and bond markets, listen to these experts:
Alliance Bernstein Research: "In 2005 we interviewed more than 500 financial advisors. 83% of the advisors we polled felt that if investors had stuck to their original asset allocation plan prior to 2000, they could have cut their losses by more than half over the following few years."

Frank Armstrong, author and adviser: "Endless tinkering is unlikely to improve performance, and chasing last period's stellar achiever is a losing strategy."

David Babson, co-author of Investing for a Successful Future: "It must be apparent to intelligent investors--if anyone possessed the ability to do so (market time) he would become a billionaire quickly."

Baer & Ginsler authors of The Great Mutual Fund Trap: "What it really takes to improve your returns and diminish your risks is a willingness to stop focusing exclusively on the movement of the markets."

Barron's Guide to Making Investment Decisions: "If we haven't said it enough, we'll say it again: Market timing is dangerous."

Bernard Baruch, famed investor: "Only liars manage to always be "out" during bad times and "in' during good times."

Peter Bernstein, author of 10 finance books: "You have to keep reminding yourself. We don't know what's going to happen with anything, ever."

Wm Bernstein, author and adviser: "There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: Those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know."

Jack Bogle: "After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently."

I started the Boglehead Contest in January 2001. Of 99 Diehard guesses that year, only 11 even guessed the direction of the stock market. Boglehead forecasts were worse in 2008. Only 2 out of 284 Bogleheads guessed how low the S&P 500 Index would plunge.

Bogleheads' Guide to Investing: "No one can predict what the stock market will do or which mutual fund will outperform in the future. This is why we diversify -- so that whatever happens we will not have all our money in losing investments."

Jack Brennan, former Vanguard CEO and author of Straight Talk on Investing: "If you're determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor."

Warren Buffet: "I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two."

CDA/Wiesenberger: "Market timing is an ineffective strategy for mutual fund investors."

Andrew Clarke, financial adviser: "A successful investor has a good knowledge base, a well-defined investment plan, and nerves of steel to stick with it."

Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal columnist: "Take my word for it. Buy-and-hold is still your best long-run strategy."

Consumer Reports: "Dalbar research has found that both stock and bond investors tend to overreact to events, moving money in and out of mutual funds with breathtakingly bad timing."

Dick Davis, publisher of Dick Davis Digest: "No one can time the market on a consistent basis."

Pat Dorsey, former Morningstar Director of Fund Analysis: "Market-timing is bunk."

David Dreman, author of Contrarian Investment Strategies: "The performance of 185 tactical asset allocation mutual funds was compared with buy-and-hold strategies and equity mutual funds over the years 1985-97. Over this period the S&P 500 Index increased 734%, average equity funds increased 598%, and tactical asset allocation funds increased 384%."

Charles Ellis, author of The Loser's Game: "Market timing is a wicked idea. Don't try it-ever."

Paul Farrell, CBS MarketWatch: "Forget market timing in any form."

Rick Ferri, adviser and co-author of seven books including The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning: "The best practice for investors is to design a long-term globally diversified asset allocation plan based on present and future financial needs. Then follow that plan religiously, through all markets good and bad."

Forbes: "Benjamin Graham spent much of his career trying to devise a good formula for when to get into--and out of--the stock market. All formulas, he concluded, failed."

Fortune Investor's Guide: "Buy and hold. Diversify. But your money in index funds. Pay attention to to the one thing you can control--costs."

Norman Fosback, author, researcher: "Don't sell out of fear or buy out of greed. Just keep making investments, and let the market take its course over the long-term."

John Kenneth Galbraith, economist: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectful."

Elaine Garzarelli, Wall Street's best known strategist until fired by Lehman Brothers: "I've learned that market timing can ruin you."

Good & Hermansen, authors of Index Your Way to Investment Success: "Staying on course may be just as difficult in bull markets as in bear markets."

Carol Gould, author & New York Times columnist: "For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy."

Graham/Campbell Study: "From June 1980 through December 1992, 94.5% of 237 market timing investment newsletters had gone of business."

Benjamin Graham, famed investor: "If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what's going to happen to the stock market."

Louis S. Harvey, President of Dalbar Research: “When investors think short-term and try to time the market, they haven’t done very well. They have been leaving a lot of money on the table.”

Chuck Hill, Director of Research at FirstCall/Thomson Financial: "At the peak of the bull market in March of 2000 only 0.7% of all recommendations on stocks issued by Wall Street brokerages and investment banks were to sell."

Morgan Housel, Wall Street Journal and Motley Fool columnist: "The odds that you will achieve long-term success by actively trading or timing the market round to zero."

Mark Hulbert, Editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest: "Among the 160 or so newsletters the HFD monitors, the market timing recommendations of only 10 have beaten the stock market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis."

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate: "After receiving the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman, was asked by a CNBC anchorman what investment tips he had for viewers. His answer: "Buy and hold.""

Michael Leboeuf, author of The Millionaire in You : "Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner's circle, and you'll sleep better at night."

Arthur Levitt, former SEC Chairman: "No one is smart enough to time the market's ups and downs."

Jessie Livermore, famous investor: "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

Peter Lynch: "Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market."

Burton Malkiel, author of the classic Random Walk Down Wall Street: "Buying-and-holding a broad-based market index fund is still the only game in town."

John Markese, PhD, President, American Association of Independent Investors: "Nobody, but nobody, has consistently guessed the direction of the bond or stock market over any meaningful length of time."

Moshe Milevsky, author & researcher: "If you can't handle the short term, if the uncertainty is stressful and the headlines are unbearable, then the markets are too hot for you: get out of the kitchen."

Morningstar Course 106: "We're not keen on market-timing. It just doesn't work."

Motley Fools: "We've yet to find anyone who can accurately and consistently predict the market's short-term moves."

"Odean and Barber tested over 66,400 investors between 1991 and 1997. Their findings: "The most active traders earned 7% less annually than buy-and-hold investors."

Gerald Perritt, financial author: "Forget trying to time the market and do something productive instead."

Don Phillips, Managing Director of Morningstar: "I can't point to any mutual fund anywhere in the world that's produced a superior long-term record using market timing as its main investment criteria."

Jane Bryant Quinn author and syndicated columnist: "The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room."

Mary Roland, author of Best Practices for Financial Advisors: "Countless studies have proved that no one is able to time the market effectively."

Ron Ross, author of The Unbeatable Market: "Trading is based on the rather arrogant belief that the trader knows more than the buyers and sellers with whom he is trading."

Louis Rukeyser, famous (deceased) TV host: "In the long run it doesn't matter much whether your timing is great or lousy. What matters is that you stay invested."

Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters: "There are no geniuses on Wall Street, only geniuses for a while."

Paul Samuelson, Nobel Laureate: "The evidence is overwhelming that a thousand timer's who try to buy when stocks are low, and sell when they are high, is a damnably awful record."

Jim Schmidt, Editor: "For the 10 years that ended 12-31-2000, only one newsletter out of the 112 that Timers Digest follows managed to beat the S&P 500 Benchmark."

Bill Schultheis, adviser and author of The Coffeehouse Investor : "I have learned the hard way that market timing and trying to pick a fund that will out-perform the market are both losing strategies."

Charles Schwab: "I'm a strong advocate of buying and holding."

Fred Schwed Jr., author of 'Where are the Customers' Yachts?: "It turns out that I should have just bought them (securities), and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant. A peasant however, who is rich beyond his limited dreams of avarice."

Chandan Sengupta author of The Only Proven Road to Investment Success: "Any investment method that relies on predicting the future is doomed to fail."

Jeremy Siegel, Nobel Laureate: "Winning with stocks requires only patience, not foresight."

W. Scott Simon, author of Index Funds: "Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator."

Stein & DeMuth, authors of Yes, You Can Get A Financial Life!: "Buying and holding a few broad market index funds is perhaps the most important move ordinary invests can make to supercharge their portfolios."

James Stewart, Smart Money columnist": It's my belief that it's a waste of time to try to time any market decline, or try to pinpoint a market bottom."

Larry Swedroe, author and adviser: "Believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future."

David Swensen, Manager of Yale Investments: "People should stop chasing performance and just put together a sensible portfolio regardless of the ups and downs of the market."

Andrew Tobias, author of The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need: "Don't waste money subscribing to investment letters or expensive services.

Tweddell & Pierce, financial authors: "Trust in time and forget market timing. Allow time to work its compounding magic for you. Let market timing inflict its miseries on someone else."

Eric Tyson, author of Mutual Funds for Dummies: "Only two newsletters have managed to keep ahead of the market averages over the past decade (and none have done so over the past 15 years."

Wall Street Journal Lifetime Guide to Money: "Few if any investors manage to be consistently successful in timing markets."

John Waggoner, USA Today financial columnist: "If you're considering doing your own market timing, the best advice is this: Don't."

Jason Zweig, author and Wall Street Journal columnist: "If you buy, and then hold a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run."
What Experts Say About Other Important Topics

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

"By selling on August 21st or 22nd, folks side stepped that big drop on the 24th.
Next question is, when did he instruct his followers to move back into stocks?
If he did so at the recent market low point of 9/28 or 9/29, then they made out OK.
We need both sides of the timing card for proper evaluation..."

As of today, he is still out of stocks. Despite Moraif's many negative issues beside his market timing record (his practice is not fee-only) he does post weekly email updates on his website.

SPY was at 198 8/21, it is at 207 as I write this. As pointed out this decade his "record" is to sell, then wait too long to get back in. And yes, that is Market Timing.

A better solution would be to have a portfolio that includes "safer" investments so one does not sell at the wrong time. Or ignore short term swings.

I am not sure why he is on Barron's top advisor list.......
zbxb006
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:06 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by zbxb006 »

One little tidbit - although he makes statements about advising his clients when to get into and out of the market, in reality, if you are a client you have no say in the matter. He gets all of his clients in or out by buying or selling their interests in his own few mutual funds, without seeking permission first. As explained to me by his agent when trying to recruit me. The mutual funds are managed by SEI and there are 2 or 3 of them if I remember correctly(like a moderate, conservative and ??). I was not impressed by their performance or their fees.

Their secret recipe - go to cash when the S&P 500 falls 5% below the 200 day moving average, go back to their mutual funds when it goes 3% above the 200 day moving average. Continue to collect 1.25% in fees while your money is in cash earning .01%.

Those must be some expensive cookies. But I didn't care for them.
DFAMAN
Posts: 114
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

LonScott wrote:"

I am not sure why he is on Barron's top advisor list.......
At the beginning of his program, he includes some oral disclosure about the Barron's ranking. He says that the ranking is based on (1) volume of assets managed, (2) revenues generated and (3) quality of practice; the quality of practice is based on regulatory record, length of time in the industry, charitable and philanthropic work and other factors - investment performance is not an explicit criterion "because clients' investment goals differ."

So, the more money he can get under management - and the greater the amount of fees that he can extract from the owners of that money - the better his ranking. Doesn't seem to matter what his investment results are. I commented on another post about Moraif in November 2013. At the time, based on his firm's Form ADV filed with the SEC, the firm managed about $1.6 billion. The latest ADV now shows that the firm manages $2.66 billion. So, Moraif has managed to increase assets under management by over $1 billion (more than 60%) in the past couple of years.

In 2013, the disclosure said that his fee is "generally" 1% of assets under management but for "some accounts" it is 1.25%. Now, the disclosure shows 1.25% as the standard fee. So, he's managed to accumulate a ton of additional assets under management while simultaneously increasing his fees. I assume that's why he's doing so well in the Barron's rankings.
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

Thank you for your reply. I still think the Barron's list is bunk, as Ric Edelman is on it along with Moraif.

Moraif is calling for a Dow 11,500 this year. 1/2/2016: "the fearless forecast for 2016 is that the Dow will hit 11,500.

This year’s fearless forecast is particularly nerve-racking because we are not that far away from our buy trigger. [WTF?] I remember feeling the same way back in 2008 when I was calling for Dow 7000, and we were close to our buy trigger back then as well. We came very close to buying back in but never quite got there, and the market collapsed after that.

That being said, I am of no value to you unless I tell it like I see it and let the chips fall where they may.

The reason I see the Dow falling to 11,500 is because I see a recession coming in the United States. In fact, I think we already are in it; it just has not been made official. Bear markets come with recessions, and the average bear market is a drop of 37%.

So what I am calling for is an average recession with the concomitant average bear market drop, and that gets us to 11,500."
bowtie
Posts: 375
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:41 am

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by bowtie »

Lon,
Is that a quote from Moraif's newsletter?
I do not know if his ads have always been on radio, but they just seem constant now, always telling about his seminars being offered. Maybe I never noticed them before.
AKdream
Posts: 38
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:08 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by AKdream »

Well it says right on his website that "We are not here to make you rich quick, We are here to make you not poor."

I would say that he is succeeding in both of those mission statements.
User avatar
stemikger
Posts: 4950
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2010 5:02 am

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by stemikger »

I never heard of him. Which is a good thing. For all the younger investors, pick your mentors wisely.

I'm not a young guy at 51, but I'm sure glad I chose my mentors wisely.

John Bogle
Warren Buffett
Taylor Larimore
And of course the smart folks who contribute to this forum! :beer
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

bowtie wrote:Lon,
Is that a quote from Moraif's newsletter?
I do not know if his ads have always been on radio, but they just seem constant now, always telling about his seminars being offered. Maybe I never noticed them before.
Yes, it is directly from his website which to his credit is available at no charge! Another good thing is he gives a time frame (2016) unlike Whitney's December 19, 2010 Muni non call on 60 minutes.

https://moneymatters.net/newsroom/email ... lerts.html

And make sure you know: "This year’s fearless forecast is particularly nerve-racking because we are not that far away from our buy trigger"

WTFiddlesticks!?
Watertree
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2007 8:37 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Watertree »

I get Ken Moraif emails just for grins. Moraif buy hold sell, buy hold sell makes him a lot of money on customer transaction costs. I noticed in Moraif latest email, he was near the buying into the market "trigger Point". What is the name of his crystal ball?

Watertree
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

Watertree wrote:Moraif buy hold sell, buy hold sell makes him a lot of money on customer transaction costs.
Watertree
Since Moraif is no longer a broker (to get around FINRA rules?), he does not make money on buying and selling. He charges Assets Under Management only. His selling point is this defensive timing strategy and death crosses which fools actually believe IHMO.

This shows the problem with SEC regulation as his fees are not transparent on his website; one has to look up the firms's SEC IA file:

"We charge an annual fee based on the amount of your assets we manage, which is generally equal to
1.25% of the assets under management. We may, in our sole discretion, charge a lesser, or greater,
annual investment management fee based upon certain criteria."

However "Compensation for the Sale of Other Investment Products
Currently, a number of our employees and management persons are licensed as independent
insurance agents. These persons will earn commission-based compensation for selling insurance
products, including insurance products they sell to you. Insurance commissions earned by these
persons are separate and in addition to our advisory fees. This practice presents a conflict of interest
because persons providing investment advice on behalf of our firm who are insurance agents have an
incentive to recommend insurance products to you for the purpose of generating commissions rather
than solely based on your needs. However, you are under no obligation, contractually or otherwise, to
purchase insurance products through any person affiliated with our firm."
User avatar
Crimsontide
Posts: 729
Joined: Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:32 pm
Location: DFW Metromess

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Crimsontide »

Guess the stopped clock is right for now????
DFAMAN
Posts: 114
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

This is from his latest email alert (available on his website), dated March 13.

"While I give it a very small possibility, we could reach our buy trigger in the coming weeks. As you know, once we get beyond six months of our sell, our buy trigger is very accurate. We reached the sixth-month point at the end of February.
However, we had our monthly investment strategy meeting last Wednesday and, after looking at all of the economic data, we are not confident that the market is right. Everywhere we look the signs are that we are headed into a bear market. Therefore, if we do buy, we will do so conservatively."

I thought he followed a formulaic approach based on 200 day moving average. This sounds more like flying by the seat of the pants "what we believe the market is going to do" stuff. If they do reach the "buy trigger" (which he says is "very accurate"), it's not clear what he is saying they will do.
User avatar
goingup
Posts: 3881
Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:02 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by goingup »

DFAMAN wrote:This is from his latest email alert (available on his website), dated March 13.

"While I give it a very small possibility, we could reach our buy trigger in the coming weeks. As you know, once we get beyond six months of our sell, our buy trigger is very accurate. We reached the sixth-month point at the end of February.
However, we had our monthly investment strategy meeting last Wednesday and, after looking at all of the economic data, we are not confident that the market is right. Everywhere we look the signs are that we are headed into a bear market. Therefore, if we do buy, we will do so conservatively."

I thought he followed a formulaic approach based on 200 day moving average. This sounds more like flying by the seat of the pants "what we believe the market is going to do" stuff. If they do reach the "buy trigger" (which he says is "very accurate"), it's not clear what he is saying they will do.
DFAMAN-
Thanks for your posts on this thread. Very interesting! Did you see this article yesterday by Moraif that was the Marketwatch site? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-bu ... 2016-03-17 I'd be interested in your comments about it.
mattshwink
Posts: 391
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:01 am

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by mattshwink »

goingup wrote: DFAMAN-
Thanks for your posts on this thread. Very interesting! Did you see this article yesterday by Moraif that was the Marketwatch site? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-bu ... 2016-03-17 I'd be interested in your comments about it.
So I am not DFAMan but I'll throw in my quick two cents. On the surface he is mostly correct, the market from January 2000 to today (inflation adjusted) is basically flat. But that is neglecting dividends. Total return (S&P 500) from January 2000 to today, including dividends and using the CPI for inflation gives a total return of 36% and an annualized one of 2%. So not stellar but not abysmal either.

But the other point to make here is that no retiree should be 100% in the market (stocks). You should have some portion of your portfolio in bonds/fixed income. Even me (being highly aggressive) is making a slow (2%) move per year towards bonds so that I am 60/40 at age 60. You should also have several years of living expenses in cash so you can ride out market downturns.

It would be interesting to see what a 100% stock (with dividends reinvested), 60/40, and 50/50 portfolio would have done since January 2000. I might try to run that, just need to find some free hours :)
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 21047
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by abuss368 »

David Swenson has always stated that both market timing and security selection do not work. Asset allocation is the most important decision an investor can make.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 21047
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by abuss368 »

Jack Bogle: "Don't do anything. Just stand there!"

Thank you Mr. Bogle.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
mattshwink
Posts: 391
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:01 am

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by mattshwink »

mattshwink wrote:
goingup wrote: DFAMAN-
Thanks for your posts on this thread. Very interesting! Did you see this article yesterday by Moraif that was the Marketwatch site? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-bu ... 2016-03-17 I'd be interested in your comments about it.
So I am not DFAMan but I'll throw in my quick two cents. On the surface he is mostly correct, the market from January 2000 to today (inflation adjusted) is basically flat. But that is neglecting dividends. Total return (S&P 500) from January 2000 to today, including dividends and using the CPI for inflation gives a total return of 36% and an annualized one of 2%. So not stellar but not abysmal either.

But the other point to make here is that no retiree should be 100% in the market (stocks). You should have some portion of your portfolio in bonds/fixed income. Even me (being highly aggressive) is making a slow (2%) move per year towards bonds so that I am 60/40 at age 60. You should also have several years of living expenses in cash so you can ride out market downturns.

It would be interesting to see what a 100% stock (with dividends reinvested), 60/40, and 50/50 portfolio would have done since January 2000. I might try to run that, just need to find some free hours :)

So I ran it through portfolio visualizer. Even with 100% stocks you still end the 15 year period with over $500,000. But a portfolio with 60/40 or 50/50 does much better (and should better reflect a retirees asset allocation). Each year you are withdrawing 4%. Worst case you are down by half. Best case (50/50) you are exactly where you started. Either way you still have years worth of withdrawals left 15 years into retirement. Definitely not the doom and gloom proclaimed.

Portfolio 1 is 100% stocks, 2 is 60/40, and 3 is 50/50
Image
DFAMAN
Posts: 114
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

goingup wrote:[
DFAMAN-
Thanks for your posts on this thread. Very interesting! Did you see this article yesterday by Moraif that was the Marketwatch site? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-bu ... 2016-03-17 I'd be interested in your comments about it.
Thanks for the link, goingup. I don't know what he does with actual client portfolios (in terms of mixing in fixed or not), but when warning of the dangers of "buy and hold" I have only heard him use examples of 100% stock. I'm not sure if he's using the S&P or what, but even with 100% stocks and taking 4% (plus inflation adjustments), a person would have been in a very different place than he indicates if that person diversified his or her stock holdings and sliced and diced.

The calculator to which I"m liking below allows you to run the numbers based on a very diversified set of DFA equity funds, and it takes into account the advisor's fee. If you punch in the 100% stock portfolio and withdrawals based on the "4% rule" you would end up with about $987,000 at the end of 2008, and about $1.98 million at the end of 2015 (in nominal dollars). Of course, I wouldn't recommend the wild ride that would come with 100% stocks (portfolio would have lost more than $700,000 in value from the end of 2007 to the end of 2008). If you select the 60/40 portfolio and the "4% rule" withdrawal option, the calculator shows that you would have had about $1.039 million at the end of 2008, and about $1.48 million at the end of 2015 (and the portfolio value decline from the end of 2007 to the end of 2008 would have been a less gut-wrenching amount of about $360,000). After adjusting for inflation, of course things wouldn't be as rosy as the nominal numbers sound, but the dire result he points to would not have played out during this period.

https://www.ifa.com/calculator/?i=port1 ... perc=false
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

Thank you for keeping this thread going. I cannot find Ken's update for 3/20 but he has been tweating(I wrote tweaking!) about other subjects.

Based on the Marketwatch article, it seems his asset allocation tends towards stocks. However on a 3/15 website post he writes: " I think we’re still in the middle of a bear, so we’re sitting on the sidelines, in money market funds and bonds."

This is the first time I have seen him mentioning bonds. I think with both short term and long term interest rates so low, buying bonds now for a long duration/maturity are very risky with the 10 year Treasury at 1.9% and quality munis about the same.

I still await his updates and "I see little to change my view that we are in a recession and that we will see my Fearless Forecast of Dow 11,500 coming to fruition."
mss
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:05 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by mss »

Ken is back in!

I am sure that he was very nervous last week, as the SP500 hit his "buy trigger" on April 13.

I believe that his sell trigger is when the SP500 goes 5% below the 200-day moving average.
8/21/2015: 200-day SMA = 2077.85 * 0.95 = 1973.96 (closed 1970.89)
His buy trigger is when the SP500 goes 3% over the 200-day moving average.
4/13/2015: 200-day SMA = 2013.8 * 1.03 = 2074.21 (closed 2082.42)

So he got his approximately 6,800 clients (per his radio show) out on August 21, 2005 and back in on April 13, 2006. This is the second or third miss he had had since his brilliant call in 2007. And you get to pay his annual fee (1.25% I think, not sure though) plus whatever expense ratios there are on his recommended funds.

Image
TravelforFun
Posts: 2174
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:05 pm

Re: Market Timing

Post by TravelforFun »

Taylor Larimore on DFAMAN:

I would like to commend you for your lengthy analysis of a market timer's actual results vs. his claimed results.
--------
Agree with Taylor. Great work, DFAMAN!
DFAMAN
Posts: 114
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:03 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by DFAMAN »

DFAMAN wrote:I have posted about Ken Moraif before. He employs a market timing system based on 200 day moving averages (although he claims that there is some additional proprietary "secret sauce"). Market timing based on moving averages may very well protect from really bad bear markets, but the question is how much upside is given up in attempting to follow such a strategy. I took a very simplistic look at where a Moraif client, on the one hand, and a "buy and hold" (or BH) guy, on the other hand, would have come out if they both invested $1,000,000 at the low point of the Great Recession (March 10, 2009). For simplicity, I assumed that all stock investments were in the S&P 500, I ignored dividends (even though the Moraif client would have forgone dividends while out of the market and would have been earning very little sitting in cash), and I ignored the advisory fee (shown in Moraif's brochure filed with the SEC as generally 1.25%) that the Moraif client would have had the pleasure of paying even while sitting for periods in cash. I also assumed that the Moraif guy's investment was in a before-tax account, as there obviously would be additional tax leakages if the Moraif strategy were followed in a taxable account.

The Moraif client would have been out of equities from March 10, 2009 to at least June 1 of 2009 (I can't find anything showing the exact date in June Moraif advised to reenter the market, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that it was June 1, as the market kept rising during the month). On June 1, 2010, the S&P closed at 943, or 31% higher than the March 10 close. So, the Moraif client would still have $1,000,000 but the BH would have $1,310,000.

On June 8, 2010, Moraif advised his clients to exit the market again. The S&P closed at 1,062, which was up 12.6% from the time Moraif reentered the market. So, the Moraif guy would have $1,126,000 and the BH would have $1,475,060.

On October 6, 2010, Moraif advised to reenter the market. The S&P was at 1159, or up 9.1% from when he last advised to exit. The Moraif guy would still have his $1,126,000, but the BH would have $1,609,400.

On August 5, 2011, Moraif advised his clients to exit the market again. The S&P was at 1199, or up 3.5% from when he last re-entered the market. So, the Moraif guy would have $1,165,410 and the BH would have $1,665,729.

On January 19, 2012, Moraif advised his clients to re-enter the market. The S&P was at 1314, or up 9.6% from when Moraif last advised to exit the market. The Moraif guy would still have $1,165,410 and the BH would have $1,825,639.

On his radio show that aired August 22, 2015, Moraif said that the "sell" point had not yet been hit, but he apparently sent email alerts the evening of August 21 (which was a Friday) advising his clients to sell (the email indicated that the radio show was recorded earlier on Friday and they ad not yet hit the "sell" point then). So, if somebody acted on his advice on Monday, August 24, 2015 (and assuming that they owned mutual fund shares, so they could only settle their "sell" trade at close of market), the Moraif guy would be selling at 1893, which was the closing price of the S&P that day. This represented a 44.1% increase from the point in 2012 when they last re-entered the market, so the Moraif guy would have $1,679,341, and the BH would have $2,799,114.

As of this past Friday, the S&P closed at 2015. The Moraif guy would still have his $1,679,341 but the BH would have $2,799,114, which is $1,119,772 (66.7%) more than the Moraif guy would have.

I listen to sometimes for entertainment value. He ALWAYS says that his clients were out of the market for all of 2008 and until June of 2009. However, it seems to me that to give a full picture he should talk about these other times that he's advised people to get out of the market and what the impact has been. He definitely has a thriving business, as he manages over $2.6 billion (mainly for "mom and pop" folks who are not high net worth individuals, according to his ADV). That $30 million plus (per year) in fees from the mom and pops seems like a nice income (for him and his partners), but they certainly spend a fair amount on infomercials.
Just to update the numbers (based on hitting his "buy" trigger on April 13). The closing price of the S&P on that date was 2082, up 10% from the closing price of 1893 on the assumed last "sell" date of August 24. So, the BH would have $3,057,025 and the Moraif guy would have $1,679,341.

It appears that Moraif has now predicted 4 out of the last 1 bear markets (he got his clients out in 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2015). I think a trailing moving average system, such as the one he appears to employ, can avoid really bad bear markets, but the question is at what cost? If, as seems to be the common wisdom, market returns are expected to be lower in the near to mid term than has been the historical norm, can an investor really give up a significant piece of his or her return that otherwise would come from the equity portion of the portfolio and still meet retirement goals?

Interestingly, his latest newsletter (the one that says the "buy" trigger has been hit) indicates that his clients will be buying back in gradually over the coming months. I don't recall seeing him do that when he has hit his "buy" signal in the past.
General
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

His website says he bought back in on June 12, 2009 after the market had continued up. I have listened to this guy for years just for the humor and to see how wrong he will be next time he predicts the market. Moraif is nothing but a fear based sales person and a good sales person at that however he is a lousy market timer as he has only guessed right once since getting out in 2008. He has got his clients out of the market 5 times since 2008 based on fear and was wrong every time. Sold low and bought high every time. People flock to him because they are scared and ignorant. I feel sorry for his clients. two of my friends are clients of his and they know nothing about investing, I try to tell them the facts and it seems to go in one ear and out the other, I don't get it!! Maybe the cookies really are that good.
User avatar
Topic Author
Bogle_Feet
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:56 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Bogle_Feet »

Moraif is the biggest CHERRY PICKER! Even clients who followed Moriaf's advice dating back to 2006 appear to now be in the red! The green line is buy and hold the S&P. The red line is Moraif's market timing. It's sad because these clients saved 29% back in 2009. Then they lost it all back because of Moraif's disastrous market timing calls.
Image
And what about other clients who cherry picked Moraif and jumped on his bandwagon after 2009? These clients have suffered huge missed gains of about 44%.
Image
General
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

Moraif missed another prediction. His November 5th newsletter predicted that if Trump won we would likely see a correction. The day after the election the Dow hit an all time high. Moraif has predicted all year and continues to say he believes the Dow will hit 11500 in 2016. We will see how that works out for him.
General
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

Moraif said all year the market would crash and go to 11,500. He missed another prediction as usual, the market had a good year and ended strong at 19,800. Moraif should get out of the predicting business, he is a fear monger who uses his tactics to overcharge his clients who don't know any better. Moraif is nothing but a salesman who scams his clients by making them believe he actually knows what he is talking about. Moraif is nothing but hot air, his track record is horrendous and his clients returns are awful. Once you factor in his high fees and trying to time the market, his clients don't stand a chance of even matching the performance of the S&P 500. Moraif's past performance and continued market timing behavior should be a warning sign to all. Grab your wallet and run!
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

I am very disappointed Moraif has wiped out his past email predictions for 2016, but more disappointed the financial media still uses him as an interview without mentioning his 2016 prediction.

What is his allocation now? Is he back into stocks? Is he now selling annuities? Actually for his gullible clients, the later might not be a bad option.

I go back to a comment on Amazon for his book where the person sold out on 8/24/15. The total return since then has been about +23.9 based on VFINX since then. Who knows if she ever got back in

If anyone can add to his current allocation, I for one would appreciate it.
User avatar
Bylo Selhi
Posts: 1156
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:40 pm
Location: www.bylo.org in the Great White North
Contact:

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Bylo Selhi »

LonScott wrote:but more disappointed the financial media still uses him as an interview without mentioning his 2016 prediction.
The financial "media" would cease to exist without an ample supply of "experts" making "predictions" that offer "advice" to their readers. They've been pushing "fake news" on the unsuspecting public long before the term was coined.

One of the best pieces of financial advice one can follow is to just ignore the financial media. But if you must, read/watch it with the same seriousness you'd afford to comedy.
toalonglife
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon May 08, 2017 8:28 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by toalonglife »

One thing that might be overlooked in this discussion...Moraif IS NOT the advisor for anyone who is interested in matching the market over the long run. However, he does appeal to the retired, older population that is more interested in not losing 50% of their retirement and don't have the years left to recoup it. I think he fairly states this in his "pitch". He's more in capital preservation, while getting a good portion of bull markets, but trying to avoid the disastrous full brunt of a bear market. If you're retired, people do not want to ride the market down, while withdrawing their 4%, and see their balances go up in smoke, knowing they don't have time to grow it back. He is not a good advisor for growth, however he does "sell and deliver" on "peace of mind". BTW, he has no money of mine.
General
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

With all due respect toalonglife you have obviously listened to too much radio and have drank the Moraif kool-aid. Moraif's track record of timing the market is horrible at best, his fees are extreamly high and the cookies are not that good. With that said a retired person with a well diversfied portfolio of low cost index funds would not lose 50% of their money. The only clients of Moraifs with "peace of mind" are the clients that have also drank the Kool-aid and just don't know better. Moraif is a slick sales person, thats it and if you listen to him long enough he will make you think he is a genius that can get you out before the market drops however, his track record proves otherwise. One of my friends was a client of Moraifs for 2 years, cost him $6k in fees and looking back knows himself that the cookies were not that good. My friend is now with Vanguard in a very low cost LifeStrategy fund and told me the other day that he has made $10k in the last 3 months and now makes his own cookies. My advise is to turn off the radio and stick with this forum.
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

I do not believe he got in on April 13 2016 because he did an interview on CNBC Wed, 22 June 2016 "Dow 11,500 is a matter of when, not if: Advisor"
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/22/dow-115 ... visor.html

Since he wiped out his inaccurate email history, we have no idea when he got back into the market. Fortunately articles like the above should exist forever.

He does a Youtube account now where he still assumes that retirees have a portfolio of 100% stocks. That should be a red flag for any retiree that is thinking of using him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pZcU10kqLg

mss wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2016 5:38 pm Ken is back in!

I am sure that he was very nervous last week, as the SP500 hit his "buy trigger" on April 13.

I believe that his sell trigger is when the SP500 goes 5% below the 200-day moving average.
8/21/2015: 200-day SMA = 2077.85 * 0.95 = 1973.96 (closed 1970.89)
His buy trigger is when the SP500 goes 3% over the 200-day moving average.
4/13/2015: 200-day SMA = 2013.8 * 1.03 = 2074.21 (closed 2082.42)

So he got his approximately 6,800 clients (per his radio show) out on August 21, 2005 and back in on April 13, 2006. This is the second or third miss he had had since his brilliant call in 2007. And you get to pay his annual fee (1.25% I think, not sure though) plus whatever expense ratios there are on his recommended funds.

Image
General
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

He started 2017 predicting Dow 21,000 by the end of the year, it hit 21,000 by March. He has changed his prediction several times so far this year as he continues to be wrong. He now is saying Dow 25,000. he is clueless to what the market will do yet continues to sell his service as someone who can get people out of the market before it goes down yet he can't even predict with any accuracy when its going to go up, much less down. Don't forget his outrageous fees to go along with his horrendous track record. Ken is the only one at Money Matters getting rich.
cp73
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 6:02 pm

Re: Ken Moraif sell signal

Post by cp73 »

I subscribe to his free email for his podcasts. Today after the market closed he gave the sell signal. So at end of day on Monday a lot of his clients will be out of the market if they use his market timing system. I read through a lot of the earlier posts. Any new thoughts on this or him? I do enjoy listening to his podcasts which are replays of his radio AM show.
Wakefield1
Posts: 1059
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by Wakefield1 »

These in and out schemes often work for a while and then mess up big and lose all of their advantage gained over the in the market over the duration investor. And that is ignoring the cost of the getting in and outs.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 20435
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by willthrill81 »

Wakefield1 wrote: Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:20 am These in and out schemes often work for a while and then mess up big and lose all of their advantage gained over the in the market over the duration investor. And that is ignoring the cost of the getting in and outs.
Timing strategies that employ a single indicator (e.g. 200 day moving average) have tended to suffer from frequent whipsaws, but they tend to be at least partially 'vindicated' by the bigger market drops of 20% or more. Held over periods where the market does not encounter such a bear market, their performance tends to look poor. Held over a complete market cycle, their performance usually looks much better. Even the lowly 200 DMA, over the long-term, has actually outperformed buy-and-hold of the S&P 500 over the last 40+ years by about 1% annually and with lower drawdowns, IIRC.

They are certainly easiest to employ in tax-advantaged accounts, where the trading doesn't have tax consequences. But they can also be used effectively in taxable accounts through the use of futures to zero out one's stock position, which is generally much less costly than the taxes would be.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
General
Posts: 50
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by General »

Once you factor in his high fees and the high fees of the funds he uses, a person would be better off with buy and hold of S&P.
jjbychko
Posts: 19
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2012 8:57 am
Location: Texas

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by jjbychko »

CP73 - its an infomercial. Often on two radio stations at the same time. And guess who pays for it.
LonScott
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 13, 2015 12:21 pm

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

Post by LonScott »

I am wondering if anyone here is following Moraif's advice. It looks like he sold out again December 14th per this on his website: TIME TO SELL? IMPORTANT MARKET ALERT VIDEO FROM KEN MORAIF POSTED ON DECEMBER 14, 2018

On Jan 13th he wrote: Despite the Rally That We Have Seen in the S&P 500 Index over the Last Two Weeks, We Are Not Convinced.END

That is a shame. VFINX is up 6.6% year to date.
Once again, Ken sells low but when will he buy high? And how will he spin so his marks believe him?
Post Reply