VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

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ray.james
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by ray.james » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:47 am

Leerar,
They denied it as technical issue/testing issue for an year since CARB/EPA asked them. The university that found this, published the results 1.5 years ago in UOV public domain. CARB picked that up and did independent testing along with EPA.

They apologized when EPA basically blackmailed them to block 2016 car approval. Maybe VW calculated public court challenge on EPA decision is more loss of goodwill than apologizing now.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:50 am

Maverick3320 wrote: Especially in their German home market, would Germany really want to put VW out of business? It would gravely harm Germany's most prominent industry and cause hundreds of thousands of job losses. VW is the largest carmaker in the world, and also have thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in economic impact in the US. Politically speaking, killing VW is a non-starter.
Also consider that the German state of Lower Saxony is a major shareholder of Volkswagen AG: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswage ... #Ownership

(edited to fix a misquote)
Last edited by TravelGeek on Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:57 am

tadamsmar wrote: EPA is estimating 18B in fines and VW's estimating 7B is total costs for this thing.
As far as I understand, the $18B is the theoretical maximum fine that could be imposed, but not an actual estimate for the fine. Too early for that.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... al-charges

"The potential financial liability is unclear. The EPA could fine the company $37,500 per violation, said Cynthia Giles, the agency’s assistant administrator for enforcement. With 482,000 autos part of the case, the total could be more than $18 billion. EPA allegations that automakers violated environmental rules often are settled for far less than the maximum possible fine."


And the $7.3B that VW has set aside are presumably just a first step. They aren't in a position to really estimate the total cost because neither fines in the US or elsewhere nor the cost of recalls/modifications/class action law suits is known at this time. Presumably accounting rules force them to set money aside in cases like this.

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Re: Anyone Buying Volkswagen Stock?

Post by ShiftF5 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:06 pm

Falling knife?

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Go Blue 99
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Re: Anyone Buying Volkswagen Stock?

Post by Go Blue 99 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:06 pm

There is already a long thread about this:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=174277

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:12 pm

2comma wrote:I'm retired, a pretty conservative Boglehead investor, no interest in doing the 5% play money game but funny thing is, I hadn't thought of AG until now. I can't even believe I'm saying this but it's exactly how I got back to "even" after I had made several small loosing bets during the euphoric dot com era. Of course, I learned all about bubbles, investing in what you know, catching a falling knife, doubling down and how stocks really can go to 0.

I bought a value investing book (one of the old big names, I can't remember the name or the book anymore, maybe Bill Graham?) and one of the central themes was to find well beaten down companies that had good fundamentals but was well hated. Owens Illinois (OI) fit that bill to a "T" back then, it had horrible press, it was all about asbestosis. The more I researched the more it looked like all of the lawsuits were not going to bring it to it's knees and other than that it was actually a pretty well run company with good future prospects. I learned how to research a company and that there can be illegal reporting that can thwart even the best research (WCI, Enron). I also learned that doing the research, and reading and understand the book takes an incredible amount of time. Still, it's more of a gamble and for a small amount of money I probably only got a few bucks per share back for the time I put into it so it usually isn't worth it IMHO. But...

I did manage to salvage my dotcom investments, made just a little and decided I'd learned a lot of good lessons for free but I was through with fundamental analysis and individual stock picking. On the other hand AG is a huge company, the actual cost to the bottom line is unknown but will it force the company into bankruptcy? It may be a well run company with good future prospects once this is over. If the fervor in the media gets high enough and the stock price gets low enough, maybe, just maybe...
I did much the same when I bought MO (Philip Morris) while the states were carving up the future profits of the various companies via the tobacco settlements. The stock recovered and my ill-gotten gains were sweet.

All these years later MO is still chugging along, throwing of a good dividend to the investors, along with who knows how many $$$ to the states, unless they have extracted everything they could by now.

I'm down to my last individual stock, but I will keep my eyes on VW. Might be one heck of a recovery project, but would require lots of patience I would think.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Epsilon Delta » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:25 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
tadamsmar wrote: EPA is estimating 18B in fines and VW's estimating 7B is total costs for this thing.
As far as I understand, the $18B is the theoretical maximum fine that could be imposed, but not an actual estimate for the fine. Too early for that.
Depends on which theory.
$18B is the theoretical maximum by the EPA for what we know about.

The other theory is the French or the British or somebody else catches them with their other hand in another cookie jar.

Lots and lots of uncertainty here.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:29 pm

Epsilon Delta wrote:
TravelGeek wrote:
tadamsmar wrote: EPA is estimating 18B in fines and VW's estimating 7B is total costs for this thing.
As far as I understand, the $18B is the theoretical maximum fine that could be imposed, but not an actual estimate for the fine. Too early for that.
Depends on which theory.
$18B is the theoretical maximum by the EPA for what we know about.

The other theory is the French or the British or somebody else catches them with their other hand in another cookie jar.

Lots and lots of uncertainty here.
Agreed. I was commenting on tadamsmar's post indicating that the EPA was estimating 18B, so my "theoretical maximum" referred only to the EPA fine. We know even less about other jurisdictions.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:38 pm

The EU best tread carefully.

Germany is carrying a lot on the backs of their workers.

I wouldn't want to burden the golden goose too harshly, might result in unpleasantness. So many EU countries can't afford losing Germany's help.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by jdb » Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:33 pm

Per CNN the German regulatory authorities just advised that the "defeat device" on the emissions (why can't they just call it a "Brazen Cheater (( or Ashley Madison)) device" ?) was also on 2.8 million diesel cars sold by VW in Germany. I wouldn't touch this stock with the proverbial 10 foot pole.
Last edited by jdb on Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by roflwaffle » Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:50 pm

rokidtoo wrote:FYI. The first article discusses why it is so difficult to create a clean diesel engine.

http://www.livescience.com/52284-volksw ... enges.html

The second article claims the clean diesels can't be adequately fixed. The software fix will result in more CO2, less torque, and more repairs. In addition, the engines can't be retrofitted with Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR), i.e. the emission control approach that uses Urea.

http://wallstreetnews.today/index.php/e ... t-be-fixed

The latter article may indicate that VW stock is a bad bet at current prices.
I don't think VW can hurt reliability at the expense of meeting emissions standards. They'll probably cut peak torque a fair bit and mileage a smaller amount. That's a whole 'nother can of worms, with settlements/buy-backs almost a certainty IMO.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:23 pm

FYI - I merged PatW86's thread into here, which is in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by CodeMaster » Fri Sep 25, 2015 9:25 pm

its gonna be a huge wave of EPA discovering all the cheaters... i bet all the car brands are going to get hit, might be a good car stock buying opportunity then... for now, just wait and watch ! :mrgreen:

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by wcmFun » Sat Sep 26, 2015 5:15 pm

southbay wrote:I believe the future of automobiles is self driving cars and a lot less individual ownership. This is not as far away as many would think.

Less traffic, less parked cars, more bike lanes, etc..

I am excited about it.

Is VW ready? Not so sure...
And there isn't much I look forward to less than that.

VW enthusiast. My new MK7 R is outstanding. Car is going to be bananas when turbo kits finally drop. Enjoy the mud, stick 8-)

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by jdb » Sat Sep 26, 2015 9:44 pm

Leeraar wrote:
nirm wrote:
Elemental wrote: I was at a meeting this morning, and someone observed that the automakers do competitive evaluations of each others' vehicles all the time. Surely VW's competitors must have figured out something fishy was going on?

I have not heard how VW got caught, but maybe this is it? It was very interesting to me that VW apologized immediately. The usual behavior is to deny and bluster for some period of time.

L.
Fascinating question: Did the other major auto companies, especially the German ones producing lots of diesel cars, have suspicions of how VW was able to produce the "clean diesels" at lower cost. And did any of them make off the record suggestions to US investigators to do analysis? Almost like a multi level spy novel.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by MossySF » Sat Sep 26, 2015 10:03 pm

In terms of stock downside, the real unknown is what VW will have to do to redress the VW owners of TDI cars. The first initial thoughts have been: VW brings all cars in -- flash the software -- and MPG goes back to EPA rated (30/45) instead of real world rated (35/50). But the stories coming out now say VW has already tried this twice (without telling anybody) and failed. And that the clean diesel equipment actually burns out after continually running in "test" mode".

So what's the real cost in fixing all the existing TDI cars? Worse case -- every TDI owner gets a full buyback. What's seemingly the best case is looking to be at least several thousands in new clean diesel equipment for every car. And if this reduces MPG/performance by any bit below the original specs, there will be class action lawsuits for sure.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Bacchus01 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:39 am

Actual costs to fix vehicles or take them off the road, recall costs and disgruntled customers will cost them way way more than any of the EPA fines.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by nedsaid » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:23 am

This might be a good time to reassess the emissions standards. Certainly they have helped clean up the air and I am glad we took reasonable steps to do this. To be honest, I am getting pretty annoyed now with having to put my car through emissions tests. It just seems like one more tollbooth the government has set up and I am weary of all the tollbooths. It is like I pay my taxes and then pay them all over again.

The other reason this has me ticked off is that I failed an emissions test because the car was burning a bit of oil. The mechanic could barely see any sign of any bit of smoke. Yet I see relatively new pickups that emit black soot like crazy. How does that happen? The newer pickups must have gotten through somehow and yet I couldn't.

What Volkswagen did was the equivalent of changing to a synthetic oil to get through the emissions test. I used an expensive "no smoke" oil to get my car through, the oil change was $250-$300. In some cases, motorists play these silly games to get their cars through. The technicians who do the tests know darned good and well what the motorists are doing and in fact probably did similar things to get their own cars through.

The reality is that Volkswagen is not going to be put out of business. The Germans would find a technical violation of some law by a US Corporation operating in Germany and fine the heck out of them. VW employs an awful lot of people with high paying jobs.

What Volkswagen did was serious and some heads will roll. It is a form of fraud. But really, how much of a difference in air pollution did the tweaking of the software create? My guess is not very much. It could be that our emissions standards are too tough. I wouldn't be surprised if other auto companies get caught doing the same thing.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Leesbro63 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:28 am

Plus this is going to cost them in sales, even of the gas cars, as the whole brand gets tarnished. My own guess is that they are so big for Germany that the German government will do something to help, probably indirectly, but this is going to be costly. They may have to have a "fire sale" to keep the metal moving. $199/no money down leases on Jetta's etc

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by nedsaid » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:31 am

roflwaffle wrote:
rokidtoo wrote:FYI. The first article discusses why it is so difficult to create a clean diesel engine.

http://www.livescience.com/52284-volksw ... enges.html

The second article claims the clean diesels can't be adequately fixed. The software fix will result in more CO2, less torque, and more repairs. In addition, the engines can't be retrofitted with Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR), i.e. the emission control approach that uses Urea.

http://wallstreetnews.today/index.php/e ... t-be-fixed

The latter article may indicate that VW stock is a bad bet at current prices.
I don't think VW can hurt reliability at the expense of meeting emissions standards. They'll probably cut peak torque a fair bit and mileage a smaller amount. That's a whole 'nother can of worms, with settlements/buy-backs almost a certainty IMO.
Let me get this right, is VW going to sacrifice fuel efficiency a bit to pass EPA standards? Really? Burn more diesel in order to pass emission standards? This isn't right and this tells me that emissions standards may be getting ridiculous. If you burn more diesel, doesn't that ultimately cause more pollution?
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Leeraar » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:01 pm

I spent 30 years working for GM, most of it in engine design and development.

This is a systems problem. The engine and its control system are not independent. It is completely plausible to me that if these VW engines had their controls changed to meet regulations, they will run hotter and that parts (like pistons) will then fail.

One might imagine that VW could just change the control system, but it is possible they will have to take all those cars back.

An incredible situation. The other thing is, aren't the Germans the first to follow any rule? (Except, the British are the first to join any queue.) I think there is a deep corporate culture issue here that will unravel the company.

L.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:09 pm

Please stay focused on the investing aspects.

Conjecture on aspects of what VW "might do", along with ethical and moral issues, are off-topic.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Leeraar » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:16 pm

LadyGeek wrote:Please stay focused on the investing aspects.

Conjecture on aspects of what VW "might do", along with ethical and moral issues, are off-topic.
OK,

The potential downside for VW is huge. I'd stay away from any investment or speculation in the company, and its suppliers.

And, as I said in a previous post, the backwash will affect all auto makers.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Penn State Bob » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:18 pm

I don't buy individual stocks. If I was going to buy VW I would DCA over 4-6 months.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Johno » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:29 pm

Leeraar wrote:I spent 30 years working for GM, most of it in engine design and development.

This is a systems problem. The engine and its control system are not independent. It is completely plausible to me that if these VW engines had their controls changed to meet regulations, they will run hotter and that parts (like pistons) will then fail.
This is very possible. One of the 'in cylinder' treatment options the VW engines use is exhaust gas recirculation: some exhaust is cycled back into the intake to reduce NOx production. The 'defeat' software among other things had exhaust gas recirculation disabled in most driving conditions. That feature had a definite impact on reliability when first adopted for heavy duty truck diesels.

To keep focus on the *stock*, two points:
-the Jetta and Passat diesel emissions in the test were many times the 'Euro 6' standard the cars are subject to in home market. WSJ had a graph, and the somewhat different EPA and EU NOx standards look almost on top of one another compared to the actual NOx output of those cars in that test. This wasn't slightly missing a possibly too extreme standard. It's not just about VW v EPA, and as pointed out, not limited to regulators against only VW either.

-the US political system decided GM could not be allowed to fall into liquidation; the German political system would almost certainly decide the same in case of VW if worse came to worst. That didn't in GM case and wouldn't necessarily in VW case however prevent a 100% loss to existing shareholders.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Ged » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:33 pm

CodeMaster wrote:
rgs92 wrote:What if VW goes the way of Worldcom, Enron, or Lehman Brothers? (Or Saab or Chrysler?)
what happened with saab and chrysler? :shock:
Saab is owned by a bankrupt Chinese company named National Electric Vehicle of Sweden and is no longer in production. Reading the Wikipedia article on Saab automotive is painful.

Chrysler is now part of Fiat after a couple of bankruptcies, being a private company and a period of being part of Mercedes (never did understand that). However it is not a stable situation and they are trying to get GM merge with them. GM has not shown any interest.

I am one of the people who bought into BP when it crashed. I made a small amount of money on a bounce. However I did not make enough on it to justify the stress that this move caused me. So I have no interest in VW.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TimeRunner » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:20 pm

If you're looking to buy VW stock and catch a falling knife, perhaps you should take a look at another falling knife, CAT. "With 2014 sales and revenues of $55.184 billion, Caterpillar is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company principally operates through its three product segments - Construction Industries, Resource Industries and Energy & Transportation - and also provides financing and related services through its Financial Products segment."

If/when China and commodities turn around, you'll be in the CATbird seat.

https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CAT

Note: This is not a recommendation and I believe in Core 4 or Taylor 3 fund....
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Dimitri » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:42 pm

Is it a good time to buy? Who knows? Want to pick up the dice and toss them? I won't deny it. I'm tempted to. But recognize that you are playing at the table. Win, lose, or draw. You are gambling. If you can afford to play the game it might be a great bet. Or you could wind up on the wrong side of the equation (i.e. the shorts won the bet). Personally I kind of like going long but don't put your money at risk on the basis of my opinion.
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by roflwaffle » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:51 pm

nedsaid wrote:Let me get this right, is VW going to sacrifice fuel efficiency a bit to pass EPA standards? Really? Burn more diesel in order to pass emission standards? This isn't right and this tells me that emissions standards may be getting ridiculous. If you burn more diesel, doesn't that ultimately cause more pollution?
All cars that use catalysts burn a little extra fuel to clean up the exhaust. It's not a whole lot though. IIRC it corresponds to a reduction of fuel economy of a few percent or less. It's a little extra CO2 to practically eliminate HCs, NOx, and CO. I think the bigger issue for most drivers is that the torque curve will be much flatter because a car probably has to operate closer to stoich for the emissions systems to work well.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by alex_686 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:37 pm

[quote="MossySF"]In terms of stock downside, the real unknown is what VW will have to do to redress the VW owners of TDI cars./quote]

2 points.

First, why do you think VW will have to do anything to redress the owners of the cars? I am trying to figure out what harm was down to the owners - I don't think higher NOX emissions would have a direct negative impact on the owners.

Second, there is another big unknown. VW' current business plan is to become the largest automotive producer in the world using their diesel engines in the consumer market. Now, not so much. The EU is reviewing their emission guidelines. This is now going to have another look. etc. This is going to have many knock on effects downstream.

From my perspective, all of these unknowns make it very hard to value VW using fundamental analysis so I would not overweight my portfolio by buying.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by CMartel2 » Sun Sep 27, 2015 7:06 pm

jdb wrote:Per CNN the German regulatory authorities just advised that the "defeat device" on the emissions (why can't they just call it a "Brazen Cheater (( or Ashley Madison)) device" ?) was also on 2.8 million diesel cars sold by VW in Germany. I wouldn't touch this stock with the proverbial 10 foot pole.
It doesn't effect consumers or performance in the slightest. Regulators might care because it trializes their regulating.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:34 pm

If it's as bad as everyone says, you can also short their stock to make money on the downside. Here's their recent performance vs some of the other major auto companies.

Code: Select all

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?t=5d&s=VOW3.DE&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=F%2CGM&ql=1#{"range":"5d","allowChartStacking":true}
Edit: sorry the link wasn't working well with the special characters, you've got to cut and paste it.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by roflwaffle » Sun Sep 27, 2015 10:44 pm

CMartel2 wrote:
jdb wrote:Per CNN the German regulatory authorities just advised that the "defeat device" on the emissions (why can't they just call it a "Brazen Cheater (( or Ashley Madison)) device" ?) was also on 2.8 million diesel cars sold by VW in Germany. I wouldn't touch this stock with the proverbial 10 foot pole.
It doesn't effect consumers or performance in the slightest. Regulators might care because it trializes their regulating.
It'll probably affect consumers/performance to some degree after VW rolls out a fix. It's going to affect VW corporate more though. Their "defeat device" resulted in NOx emissions levels not seen since the early 1980s.

http://forums.tdiclub.com/showpost.php? ... count=5122

If that isn't brazen malfeasance, I dunno what is. :oops:

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by lack_ey » Sun Sep 27, 2015 11:02 pm

Can anyone even articulate about the baseline level of fallout (say, cost of fines across the US and elsewhere, cost of recalls and fixes, competitive disadvantage in terms of specs for future products that can't cheat, lost sales in the meantime, damaged reputation, etc.) that the market is pricing in? I mean, if you have an idea about what's going to happen, you need to know if it's more optimistic or pessimistic for the company than what others think, in the very least.

Well, the more uncertainty there is, the greater the money to be made if you're right and others are wrong, I guess.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by MossySF » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:23 am

alex_686 wrote:
MossySF wrote:In terms of stock downside, the real unknown is what VW will have to do to redress the VW owners of TDI cars.
First, why do you think VW will have to do anything to redress the owners of the cars? I am trying to figure out what harm was down to the owners - I don't think higher NOX emissions would have a direct negative impact on the owners.
Let's say VW has to issue a recall. The most likely scenario is to modify the cars to meet the NOx requirements. All signs point to this impacting performance and MPG. Now you have 500K owners in the U.S. (and perhaps 11M around the world) who no longer have the same car they bought.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Maverick3320 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:31 am

Maverick3320 wrote:
Maverick3320 wrote:Day 1:

Purchase date: 22 Sep 2015
Price: 25.049/share
# shares: 25, VLKAY (over the counter shares of VW)
Total price: 633.22 (7 dollar fee from Vanguard)

Current price as of 15:06 CST is $25.42.

Current profit: ~3 bucks. Gotta start somewhere 8-)
Day 3: current price as of 09:43 CST is $26.81.

Theoretical profit: ~37 dollars. Up around 7%.
Day 7: current price as of 0830 CST is $25.68.

Theoretical profit: ~2 dollars. Up around 1%.

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jabberwockOG
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by jabberwockOG » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:37 am

The ultimate $ liability and cost is absolutely not priced into the stock. It will take more time for the world wide significance of this financial disaster for VW to really sink in.

bogle2013
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by bogle2013 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:56 am

Down 7% more today. Maybe today is the day to back up the truck? or maybe wait for it fall more? or wait for it to go back up and break through some arbitrary resistance level?

it is also important to think about the lunar eclipse and the impact that might have?

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Slick8503
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Slick8503 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:18 am

NOx is produced in higher amounts from a "hotter" burn(read more efficient). The fix will ultimately have to lower the efficiency of the engine to reduce NOx. Therefore the power/mpg numbers will have to go down for existing owners who have the fix implemented. It will most definitely effect current owners.

Johno
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Johno » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:08 pm

MossySF wrote:
alex_686 wrote:
MossySF wrote:In terms of stock downside, the real unknown is what VW will have to do to redress the VW owners of TDI cars.
First, why do you think VW will have to do anything to redress the owners of the cars? I am trying to figure out what harm was down to the owners - I don't think higher NOX emissions would have a direct negative impact on the owners.
Let's say VW has to issue a recall. The most likely scenario is to modify the cars to meet the NOx requirements. All signs point to this impacting performance and MPG. Now you have 500K owners in the U.S. (and perhaps 11M around the world) who no longer have the same car they bought.
I guess the people saying it will have no effect on consumers (as in existing owners) are assuming the car owner can just ignore the recall and continue to drive the high NOx emitting but otherwise satisfactorily performing car. That may end up happening in some cases and places, but it's less likely in jurisdictions accustomed to giving environmental regulators broad power, where unmodified cars might just fail inspection and become not legally driveable. And some owners might not want to drive highly polluting cars even if they could: it's not what they were told they were buying. And to the extent there's political push back to making the excess emissions into the car owner's problem, the natural political path of least resistance, at least outside Germany, is to also make that into VW's problem. For example VW might be forced to offer significant monetary incentives to get owners to voluntarily submit their cars for modification, as part of an overall settlement; good for existing owners, not VW stockholders.

And this thread is about VW's stock, not the impact of the scandal on existing VW diesel car owners. VW's liability for potentially huge fines paid to govts is also big issue for stockholders, not directly for existing owners. Likewise if VW can't sell new diesel cars which actually meet reqts, and regulators can definitely prevent that, and which are still attractive to consumers, again problem for VW stockholders, not existing VW car owners.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Leeraar » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:37 pm

Yesterday's Detroit Free Press has pages and pages on the VW scandal.

The big downside is that the cars cannot be fixed and VW has to take them all back, and face a bazillion dollars in fines. The consensus seems to be that VW is too big to fail, and will face very heavy fines but not go out of business.

My own opinion is that the cars cannot be fixed. If they could, their competitors would be selling equivalent vehicles, and they are not. I'd run far away from any investments speculation in VW.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

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dbCooperAir
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by dbCooperAir » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:10 pm

Leeraar wrote:Yesterday's Detroit Free Press has pages and pages on the VW scandal.
http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2 ... /72612616/
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

Maverick3320
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by Maverick3320 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:12 am

Maverick3320 wrote:
Maverick3320 wrote:
Maverick3320 wrote:Day 1:

Purchase date: 22 Sep 2015
Price: 25.049/share
# shares: 25, VLKAY (over the counter shares of VW)
Total price: 633.22 (7 dollar fee from Vanguard)

Current price as of 15:06 CST is $25.42.

Current profit: ~3 bucks. Gotta start somewhere 8-)
Day 3: current price as of 09:43 CST is $26.81.

Theoretical profit: ~37 dollars. Up around 7%.
Day 7: current price as of 0830 CST is $25.68.

Theoretical profit: ~2 dollars. Up around 1%.
Day 14: current price as of 10:00 CST is $23.15.

Theoretical profit/loss: -47 dollars. Down 7.6%.

TorturedRegret
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TorturedRegret » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:38 pm

This is yesterday's news, and the stock seems to have leveled out.
This could be a time to start nibbling @ $23.36 and DCA

CodeMaster
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by CodeMaster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:12 pm

TorturedRegret wrote:This is yesterday's news, and the stock seems to have leveled out.
This could be a time to start nibbling @ $23.36 and DCA
im not expert, but i noticed a pattern with crashing stocks, they tend to crash a lot lower then u expect and after theyve "bottomed", they stabilize or stay there for a really long time before going up. so in my conclusion, theres rarely any rush to jump back in its best to let it stabilize. bottoms dont disappear as fast as people fear it may and on top of that, VW hasnt even finished figuring out how much damage its gonna get hit with thru lawsuits and other countries and recalls etc etc etc... itsj ust the beginning! it hasnt bottomed at all, ill be surprised if it doesnt go all the way down and either bankrupt or recover, perhaps even with a government save. just my 2 cents :sharebeer

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tuningfork
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Volkswagen Chief Warns on Existential Threat of Cheating Scandal

Post by tuningfork » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:42 pm

Volkswagen AG’s designated Chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch warned managers that the diesel-emissions scandal could pose “an existence-threatening crisis for the company,” as it pleaded for public trust with full-page ads in national newspapers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ng-scandal

So I'm guessing they're not at the bottom yet.

CodeMaster
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Re: Volkswagen Chief Warns on Existential Threat of Cheating Scandal

Post by CodeMaster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:49 pm

tuningfork wrote:
Volkswagen AG’s designated Chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch warned managers that the diesel-emissions scandal could pose “an existence-threatening crisis for the company,” as it pleaded for public trust with full-page ads in national newspapers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ng-scandal

So I'm guessing they're not at the bottom yet.
LOLL

small_index
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by small_index » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:29 pm

When I read about the scandal earlier, multiple opinions were that the recall would impact gas mileage. If a company deliberately breaks a law and increases gas mileage, it's fairly easily to show that they knowingly sold a car with inflated gas mileage.

You don't need to speculate about consumers and "green diesel" - it's been in VW car commercials. Why does VW advertise a cleaner car if that's not selling cars? Based on the fraud, the advertisements were also a fraud, and consumers could use it to make their case.

The expectation right now is that more news will come out of the Congressional hearings.

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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TradingPlaces » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:45 am

If I were the US government, I would ban VW from selling cars in the US for 5 years.

That's one sure way to sink the stock.

You don't want to encourage fraud in any capacity, and you want to come with the heaviest hand you have.

TradingPlaces
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Re: VW stock goes from 170 to almost 100 and falling, good time to buy?

Post by TradingPlaces » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:48 am

Closing price on Sep 23rd: 118.90 EUR (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VOW. ... king":true}).

Closing price today: 102.80

Change: -13.5% combine that with two facts:

- stock markets are up,
- VOW volaility is 3-4x the market,

and we have a winner.

Locked