What is going on out there?

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Prague
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What is going on out there?

Post by Prague » Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:42 pm

The market took a dive last Thursday and recovered some of its Friday lost in the final 2 hours on Friday. We then had a great rally today. However, the futures are taking a beating right now. How manipulative can things get? Personally, I think equity future trading is a scam and market manipulation. The feeling extends to calls, puts, and high frequency trading. The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.

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nedsaid
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:43 pm

In the short run about anything can happen. I wouldn't worry about the daily fluctuations up and down. This is what markets do.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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LAlearning
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by LAlearning » Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:44 pm

No one said you had to play.
I know nothing!

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mephistophles
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by mephistophles » Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:48 pm

I think its called.....volatility!

John3754
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by John3754 » Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:52 pm

You should stop watching, why does it matter to you what the market does on a day to day, hour to hour basis?

Prague
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Prague » Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:54 pm

nedsaid wrote:In the short run about anything can happen. I wouldn't worry about the daily fluctuations up and down. This is what markets do.


I would expect fluctuation is based on event or events. This seems like like big money trimming off the top, increasing their share count with each transaction.

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Index Fan
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Index Fan » Mon Aug 10, 2015 11:28 pm

As my Dad used to say, 'in 10 years you'll forget all about it'.
"Optimum est pati quod emendare non possis." | -Seneca

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JoMoney
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by JoMoney » Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:37 am

If it bothers you, try to tune out the noise. The equity futures markets are nutty.
"There's legitimate uses... but overwhelmingly it's a gambling vehicle"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0XwVh6bJ1s
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nisiprius
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by nisiprius » Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:57 am

Prague wrote:The market took a dive last Thursday and recovered some of its Friday lost in the final 2 hours on Friday. We then had a great rally today. However, the futures are taking a beating right now. How manipulative can things get? Personally, I think equity future trading is a scam and market manipulation. The feeling extends to calls, puts, and high frequency trading. The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.
Obviously the stock market and the activities that surround it contain elements of both gambling and business participation. I think it's quite likely that it also contains elements of unfairness--manipulation, exploitation, cheating, asymmetrical information, and that some participants are simply trying to take money away from others through means that might be described as "legal but unfair." For precisely these reasons, on May 21st in a CNBC interview, John C. Bogle said:
Asked to explain his retirement investing philosophy to young people, Vanguard Group founder John Bogle summed it up very simply: Expect a 7% return from the growth of American business and nothing more, and never, ever speculate.

The U.S. stock market rides on the productivity of American business, Bogle told CNBC. Corporations pay a dividend yield of about 2%, and long-term earnings growth is about 5%.

You can avoid the Wall Street casino simply by not attempting to beat the market by speculating in the short term. Just get in and stay in, Bogle told young investors, and it's very hard to get it wrong.

"I would say, go into the casino, which is what Wall Street is today. Bet on the entire stock market and then get out of the casino and never show yourself there again," Bogle said.
Using low-cost index funds to invest in entire markets or, at least, very broad categories stocks, and buying and holding, puts you on both sides of every speculative transaction and minimizes the degree to which your personal returns are coupled to the craziness.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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SpringMan
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by SpringMan » Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:15 am

China devalued their yuan. That seems to be the root cause of the volatility this time.
Best Wishes, SpringMan

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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by IlliniDave » Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:21 am

I agree with the general thread of advice that says it's best not to think about it. Trying to make sense of it will lead errors in judgement all too often. As nisiprius alluded to, investing in the stock market is the act of buying in and sitting back and sharing in the moneymaking of publicly-traded corporations. Over time the business results will cut through the noise.
Don't do something. Just stand there!

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JoMoney
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by JoMoney » Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:23 am

nisiprius wrote:... on May 21st in a CNBC interview, John C. Bogle said ...
Thank you for that link. The picture of John Bogle as Robert De Niro in 'Casino' is great :D
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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midareff
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by midareff » Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:09 am

It's a market... market's go up and down. It's just another day of markets doing what markets do and talking heads doing what they do.

angelescrest
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by angelescrest » Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:17 am

Index Fan wrote:As my Dad used to say, 'in 10 years you'll forget all about it'.

That's a good one! I'd say that in 10 months you'll forget about it!

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bottlecap
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by bottlecap » Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:23 am

Prague wrote:
nedsaid wrote:In the short run about anything can happen. I wouldn't worry about the daily fluctuations up and down. This is what markets do.


I would expect fluctuation is based on event or events. This seems like like big money trimming off the top, increasing their share count with each transaction.


This is stuff that you hear on tv and read on the internet that makes no sense.

First, big money ALWAYS moves the market - the small money isn't big enough to move it. In fact, there's not enough small money for the big money to trade to even if it wanted to "manipulate" the market and make a killing off the little guy.

Second, the idea that you can predict the market based on an event or events is an old canard in and of itself. Trillions of events that effect the market happen every second. The idea that we can narrow it down to the ones that make the morning news and have a good idea of where the market is going is a bit of a joke, no? If it were that easy, everyone would be making a killing - or none at all.

Don't buy into the meaningless mumbo jumbo You hear in the media.

JT

scone
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by scone » Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:22 am

What is going on out there?

Not much of anything, really, at least in terms of price. Go to Google Finance and set the time scale to YTD (Year to Date). As I write, the DOW is down a bit, the S & P is up a bit. The NASDAQ is up a bit more, with a lot of volatility-- that's not exactly a shocker. International, VXUS, is up a bit. REITS, VNQ. are down. Emerging Markets (VWO), down some, with lots of volatility. Again, not a shocker, as that's how the Emerging Markets asset class tends to behave.

On the bond side, again in terms of price only, boring old Treasuries like SHY (short term), and IEF (intermediate) are up just a tad. Total Bond (BND) is down a bit.

I could give other examples, but I think I've made my point. In terms of price, it's basically a flattish market without much direction, and really not much volatility either. There are corners of the world where the crazy is happening, like China, but I doubt any Boglehead is "all in" over there. If you are properly diversified, it has likely been a dull, boring year so far.
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

Thebigc
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Thebigc » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:36 am

SpringMan wrote:China devalued their yuan. That seems to be the root cause of the volatility this time.


Yeah that is pretty much it, the US now shoulders world deflation. It's competative devaluation, currency war. US stuck in the mud, they can either go forward or go backwards, can't lower rates, there is nothing to lower, QE3? No clue how this plays out, Yen maybe next to devalue.

Oil headed to 30, market needs a few weeks to figure out China, Growth is going down and value is going up, even though up may mean less loss. US under constant fire at this point, China, OPEC, global deflation, intrest rate risk, hackers in the market etc... We need inflation and we are probably not going to get it in the short term the world is to screwed up at this point.

Not much you can do about it, slow growth is now looking like no growth. Tilt value maybe? Do nothing? Panic and leave? Doesn't matter, won't do much to effect what is happening out there. The devaluing of the Yuan does seem to enforce that China is still nothing more than an export giant. Internally they have not really grown and there economy is hollow.

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tennisplyr
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by tennisplyr » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:36 am

I always wondered why financial publications show things like performance: "in the past month", "past 6 months", "past year"? Haven't these guys heard of the "long haul" concept :confused
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

ShiftF5
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by ShiftF5 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:23 am

angelescrest wrote:
Index Fan wrote:As my Dad used to say, 'in 10 years you'll forget all about it'.

That's a good one! I'd say that in 10 months you'll forget about it!

Or 10 Minutes.

Confused
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Confused » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Blanked for privacy
Last edited by Confused on Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Electron
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Electron » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:46 pm

Only a small percentage of daily trading volume today is related to long term investing. It was a lot different prior to the 1980s.

I saw a chart recently showing trading volume going back to 1965. Trading volume started rising significantly in the 1980s and peaked in the last quarter of 2008. The caption below the chart said that volume had actually been growing exponentially.

We might prefer in some ways that all investors were long term investors. It's interesting to think about that case and whether it would be healthy for the market. In reality, long term investing can't apply to individual securities in the same way as it applies to a market index or diversified mutual fund.
Electron

surfstar
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by surfstar » Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:56 pm

Unfortunately I'm not sure - I've been in the office all morning.
You're right to ask about what's going on outside, though. Its much more interesting than work. Sometimes I see a bird run by on the window sill. That's always nice.

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greg24
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by greg24 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:19 pm

In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

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timboktoo
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by timboktoo » Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:48 pm

I haven't noticed, and that doesn't bother me at all :)

- Tim

malabargold
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by malabargold » Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:00 pm

tennisplyr wrote:I always wondered why financial publications show things like performance: "in the past month", "past 6 months", "past year"? Haven't these guys heard of the "long haul" concept :confused



Because the premise of these publications, and newsletters, and business/financial
networks is all about trying to convince people they have to pay attention to them,
watch the short term like a hawk, and react like a ninja.

What kind of readership or viewership would they have if they said, " pick
your asset allocation, keep plugging away, tune back in in 40 years."

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Index Fan
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Index Fan » Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:47 pm

angelescrest wrote:
Index Fan wrote:As my Dad used to say, 'in 10 years you'll forget all about it'.

That's a good one! I'd say that in 10 months you'll forget about it!


Its good Boglehead advice, actually. Dad wasn't a Boglehead though ;)
"Optimum est pati quod emendare non possis." | -Seneca

yukon50
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by yukon50 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:02 am

Prague wrote:The market took a dive last Thursday and recovered some of its Friday lost in the final 2 hours on Friday. We then had a great rally today. However, the futures are taking a beating right now. How manipulative can things get? Personally, I think equity future trading is a scam and market manipulation. The feeling extends to calls, puts, and high frequency trading. The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.


Remember what happened last Oct? Ebola. Who's still scared of Ebola? Who's still worrying about it?

How about the scary, scary Fiscal Cliff? 2013 was the best year in 16 YEARS (right after the Fiscal Cliff.)

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:20 am

malabargold wrote:
tennisplyr wrote:I always wondered why financial publications show things like performance: "in the past month", "past 6 months", "past year"? Haven't these guys heard of the "long haul" concept :confused



Because the premise of these publications, and newsletters, and business/financial
networks is all about trying to convince people they have to pay attention to them,
watch the short term like a hawk, and react like a ninja.

What kind of readership or viewership would they have if they said, " pick
your asset allocation, keep plugging away, tune back in in 40 years."

You have a way with a phrase -- react like a ninja :sharebeer
It also stifles conversations at the gym, although most people by now know that the market and sports (except for hockey) are not good conversation starters with me.
What I find interesting is that the person who has never raised the topic of markets is a guy who made his money, and has a vanity plate to commemorate it, via newsletters. Nicest guy in the world. I seek him out for conversations about grandkids.

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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by magneto » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:45 am

Prague wrote:The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.


Since when?
Markets are mostly populated by human-beings with emotions.

Fortunately most here would be moving in the opposite direction to those day to day gyrations and then only if we see major market moves. Still waiting for that bear market to really get going. Seems well overdue. :)
'There is a tide in the affairs of men ...', Brutus (Market Timer)

Prague
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Prague » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:03 pm

magneto wrote:
Prague wrote:The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.


Since when?
Markets are mostly populated by human-beings with emotions.

Fortunately most here would be moving in the opposite direction to those day to day gyrations and then only if we see major market moves. Still waiting for that bear market to really get going. Seems well overdue. :)


Market timing. Blasphemy. How dare you look for deal to pad your pocket? You should buy high, stay long even when it's wrong.

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:04 pm

Prague wrote:You should buy high, stay long even when it's wrong.


Nothing's keeping you invested.

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telemark
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by telemark » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:17 pm

Beware of explanations after the fact. They may sound plausible, but that doesn't mean they're right. If you can find someone who predicted what happened in advance, if only by saying "if this happens that will follow", then he or she might be on to something. If they're not just lucky.

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obgyn65
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by obgyn65 » Thu Aug 13, 2015 5:07 am

This is correct. I am happy not to play, although I am one of the very few on this forum who do not own shares or index funds of any type, feeling lonely sometimes :happy

LAlearning wrote:No one said you had to play.
"The two most important days in someone's life are the day that they are born and the day they discover why." -John Maxwell

John3754
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by John3754 » Thu Aug 13, 2015 6:10 am

obgyn65 wrote:This is correct. I am happy not to play, although I am one of the very few on this forum who do not own shares or index funds of any type, feeling lonely sometimes :happy

LAlearning wrote:No one said you had to play.


Most people don't have the means to have a withdrawal rate low enough that they don't need to invest in equities.

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:16 am

John3754 wrote:Most people don't have the means to have a withdrawal rate low enough that they don't need to invest in equities.


And I doubt that most people would want to avoid equities even if they had more than a few million dollars.

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bottlecap
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by bottlecap » Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:00 am

Prague wrote:Market timing. Blasphemy. How dare you look for deal to pad your pocket? You should buy high, stay long even when it's wrong.


Oh. Excuse me for thinking you were actually asking a question, rather than making an unsupported statement that you knew would draw disagreement.


So, to recap the conversation:

You: The market goes up and down a lot in an unpredictable fashion. I "feel" like there's manipulation because of this. The stock market's valuation should be based on past financial statements and not a reflection of the future prospects of the company.

Us: The market always goes up and down. A company's market value is based largely on where that company is headed, not what it has done in the past. Because this can't be predicted accurately, the market moves wildly at times in the short term. If the market could be predicted, there would be no trading - there would be no reason to trade.

You: Whatevs. You guys are wrong. [Insert random market timing rhyme from the internet].



The fact is, almost everyone here "stays long" when its wrong and we are doing fine. There are not a lot of retired people on this board complaining that they are penniless because they were scammed by anti-market timing schemes. In fact, not one.

So you can do what you want and "feel" what you want, but you don't have anything to back up your feelings. The statements you make about manipulation are easily dismissed because they are just statements of unsupported opinion. Taken to their logical conclusion, they would mean that markets move smoothly and predictably, which has never, ever, been the case.

Good luck with your theories.

JT

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obgyn65
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by obgyn65 » Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:46 pm

Actually most Americans don't own stocks or equirty funds : http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/g ... funds.aspx
"The two most important days in someone's life are the day that they are born and the day they discover why." -John Maxwell

Rodc
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Rodc » Sat Aug 15, 2015 8:05 pm

The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.


Likely does in the long run. Most of us get in little by little with a purchase with each paycheck. We get out little by little over the years as well.

The ups and downs have a good chance of smoothing out (though they may not and we may have some unfortunate reason to sell a lot at one time).

If one simply cannot live with that there are bonds and CDs.

Best of luck to us all.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.

Prague
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Prague » Sat Aug 15, 2015 11:49 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Prague wrote:Market timing. Blasphemy. How dare you look for deal to pad your pocket? You should buy high, stay long even when it's wrong.


Oh. Excuse me for thinking you were actually asking a question, rather than making an unsupported statement that you knew would draw disagreement.


So, to recap the conversation:

You: The market goes up and down a lot in an unpredictable fashion. I "feel" like there's manipulation because of this. The stock market's valuation should be based on past financial statements and not a reflection of the future prospects of the company.

Us: The market always goes up and down. A company's market value is based largely on where that company is headed, not what it has done in the past. Because this can't be predicted accurately, the market moves wildly at times in the short term. If the market could be predicted, there would be no trading - there would be no reason to trade.

You: Whatevs. You guys are wrong. [Insert random market timing rhyme from the internet].



The fact is, almost everyone here "stays long" when its wrong and we are doing fine. There are not a lot of retired people on this board complaining that they are penniless because they were scammed by anti-market timing schemes. In fact, not one.

So you can do what you want and "feel" what you want, but you don't have anything to back up your feelings. The statements you make about manipulation are easily dismissed because they are just statements of unsupported opinion. Taken to their logical conclusion, they would mean that markets move smoothly and predictably, which has never, ever, been the case.

Good luck with your theories.

JT


I was kidding. I should put a smiley face or lol next time. I agree with you guys but it is still nerve wrecking since I just came back to the market this January after getting out on August of 2013. had I been in the whole time, I would be bogle-heading.

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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by tyler_cracker » Sun Aug 16, 2015 3:24 am

Prague wrote:I just came back to the market this January after getting out on August of 2013.


what caused you to leave in august of 2013? what changed in january?

Prague
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Prague » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:34 am

tyler_cracker wrote:
Prague wrote:I just came back to the market this January after getting out on August of 2013.


what caused you to leave in august of 2013? what changed in january?


I never looked at my 401k before and did not know anything about stock market and investment. While on the road trip on day, I heard on the radio that the market will crash. I googled about it and saw all these doom financial sites, including market watch and yahoo finance. Therefore, I moved my money to Treasury. Since I don't ever looked at my balance or follow the news, I never found out how wrong I was. The shock came when I had to open my financial statement as part of buying a piece of land for retirement; I found out I missed out about 15-20 percent in gain by being out of the market. That was December of 2014 and I had been tracking my money very carefully. I have TSP; therefore, it is very limited in what I can do. I can only purchase/move money to buy market shares twice a month but TSP counts moving from stock to bond a complete transaction. In addition, order has to put in before 1200 and I only get the closing price. On three occasion, I was stuck on a work site and could not put the order in on time, the market peaked that very day and plunged the next. Had I was able to break away to put in my order, I would be looking at 13% gain this year instead of 9%. I

I am basically just trying to make up for the lost. While doing so, I learned a lot and see a big potential in earning, if I have access to a tablet or smartphone while working outside. I think I am going to get a iPad mini soon to manage my investment while on unpaid break at work.

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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:37 am

Prague wrote: The stock market should reflect the performance of the corporations it represents instead of rumors and manipulations.


How can the performance of corporations be measured day to day?
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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bottlecap
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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by bottlecap » Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:26 am

Prague wrote:I was kidding. I should put a smiley face or lol next time. I agree with you guys but it is still nerve wrecking since I just came back to the market this January after getting out on August of 2013. had I been in the whole time, I would be bogle-heading.


Sorry, I mistook your post for baiting.

It can be nerve-wracking, but over the years you learn to stop listening to all the opinions. You just make sure that you have good reasons for your asset allocation and IPS. Focus on the one thing that you can control and that has the biggest effect on your nest egg - making (and implicitly saving) money.

JT

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Re: What is going on out there?

Post by Sidney » Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:34 am

Confused wrote:
SpringMan wrote:China devalued their yuan. That seems to be the root cause of the volatility this time.


I ordered 200 USD worth of yuan at Wells Fargo last Thursday. They said it'd take three business days and they'd call me when its ready. I have not yet received a call. Do you suppose I'd be getting the old value of the yuan or the new?

Note: This is not an investment, this is to have some spending cash upon arrival for an upcoming trip to China.

Most major airports have ATMs -- certainly international ones.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

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