What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

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grabiner
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by grabiner » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:53 pm

Age 47, 98% stock counting my mortgage as a negative bond (which I do for asset allocation purposes), 88% not counting it. I also overweight small-cap, value, and emerging markets, so I am taking a bit more risk than even these numbers suggest.

Yes, I know that I have one of the most aggressive portfolios on the Bogleheads, and I never recommend that anyone match it; if my portfolio is right for you, then you know enough to ignore my advice.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by livesoft » Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:59 pm

Out of curiosity, I went back to look at my asset allocation for the date I joined the forum. Since I use MS Money to track my portfolio it was easy to do simply by changing the date to show. It turns out I was in my late 40's and also had a high allocation to equities of about 87%:

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Since I knew I was going to semi-retire soon and because of participating in this forum, I adjusted my allocation that year to about 31% fixed income.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by JW-Retired » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:00 pm

Last I checked (April 28) it was 63/37. I've done nothing to change it but maybe the market could have tweaked it very slightly. This is only counting investable assets.

My age as well as wife's age is 71.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by SimpleGift » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:24 pm

One final observation from the data so far: Not only are Bogleheads in all age groups today being much more aggressive in their stock allocations than Mr. Bogle's standard recommendation of "age in bonds," but older Bogleheads are, relatively speaking, being a bit more aggressive than younger Bogleheads:
  • Image
Again, this is most likely a reflection of today's very low interest rate environment.
Last edited by SimpleGift on Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cordially, Todd

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Tyrobi » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:26 pm

70/30
Age 35
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by grabiner » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:35 pm

Simplegift wrote:One final observation from the data so far: Not only are Bogleheads in all age groups today being much more aggressive in their stock allocations than Mr. Bogle's standard recommendation of "age in bonds," but older Bogleheads are, relatively speaking, being a bit more aggressive than younger Bogleheads:
  • Image
Again, this is most likely a reflection of today's very low interest rate environment.
It may also be a reflection of the number of retirees who have more than enough for their own retirement. They may have part of their portfolios invested for their children's retirement and grandchildren's college fund, with the appropriate higher-stock allocation. This isn't common among the general investing population, but many Bogleheads invest early and often, leave the money there, and have benefited from the rising market.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Bacchus01 » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:37 pm

At 41 we're about 85/15

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by gkaplan » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:44 pm

60/40 Equity/Fixed Income

Age 72
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Steve K » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:49 pm

Age 54, 40/60. Nearly have enough so enough risk for us.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by b4real » Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:52 pm

65 & 65, retired last year. Our SWAN allocation is 33 stocks, 67 bonds/cash. WR less than 2% when we take own SS at 70.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by JonnyDVM » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:05 pm

Age 35
85/15
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:11 pm

Simplegift wrote:
ruralavalon wrote:
tc101 wrote: In spite of all the great advice here about recency and market timing I notice on this board that peoples percentage in stocks is lots higher than it was back in 2009.
Here is data on the percentage of stocks from 2007 & 2011, " % Stocks vs Age".
Not only are Bogleheads' stock allocations higher than they were in 2009, they appear to be even higher now than they were in 2007, before the stock market meltdown (chart below) — based on the data linked to above by ruralavalon, from previous Boglehead polls on the same question.

It's understandable — as interest rates have fallen lower, stock allocations have nudged higher.

Image
I guess it's easier to feel confident about stocks when there has been a six year bull market. Somehow, this doesn't make me feel good. But of course, I am just going to stay the course.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Rysto » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:25 pm

I'm 29, and I have 80% in equities.

I'm rather surprised to learn that this makes me *less* aggressive than the average boglehead of my age.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by planetfog » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:58 pm

100% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund

Age: 36

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Sheepdog » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:08 pm

Almost age 82. 23% stocks, 20% I bonds, 57% other bonds, cash and CDs. I went to a stock allocation of 100 minus my age when I reached 67, but I decided to not have a lower stock allocation than where I am at. I do not have a pension, but I did buy $100K worth of immediate annuities 3 years ago which gives us about $800 a month guaranteed. That is not included in the above allocation.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by MnD » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:12 pm

75/25, Age 52
US/Ex-US stocks are ~50:50 - ~global market cap

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Dale_G » Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:22 pm

Overall, I'd say the boglehead's allocation to stock is pretty consistent. 2007 and 2015 are both close to market peaks and the equity allocation is similar. In 2011 we were still recovering from the crunch of 2008/2009, so it is not surprising that equity allocations were a bit lower at that time. Many may have still been at the low end of their allocation bands.

And yes, there may be some recency involved in the 2015 showings. I have a higher equity allocation now than in either 2007 and 2011. The fact is I have no way of knowing whether my present bravado is due to the the magnificent improvement in the market since the market lows of 2009 - or some fundamental change in perspective.

To tell the truth, if the S&P closed today at 666 (the low of March 9(?) 2009), I am not sure that I would be at 70% equities today. Recency may be part of it, but the recovery of the market also reinforces the fact that the market has been resilient. And demonstrated resiliency is, in of itself, a reason to have confidence in the future, hence a healthy allocation to equities.

It looks like the Bogleheads have been pretty consistent.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by ANC » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:21 am

Age 60

Stocks: 55%
Bonds: 27%
Cash: 18%

Stocks down from 65% a year ago, US/Intl = 72/28, tilt to large cap growth,

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by 22twain » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:30 am

Age 61.5

Stocks 50%
Bond funds & cash 50%

I'm actually targeting age-10 in bonds, so I'm a bit overweight in stocks right now. I'll probably correct this during the next month.
My investing princiPLEs do not include absolutely preserving princiPAL.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by pascalwager » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:54 am

Age 72

Stocks 85%, fixed income 15%

Still living on pension income
Preferred AA: Total US and foreign stock markets and short-term Treasury fixed income

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by RevYoung » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:55 am

Average age between my wife and me: 30
We're in whatever the TR2050 is…let me check. 8-)

Ah. I guess we're 90% stock. :mrgreen:

Planning on riding this train into the ground.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:38 am

Around 75/25 @ age 51
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by HongKonger » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:48 am

Aged 43 & retired for 2 years.

Stocks: 60%
CD's: 25%
Cash: currently 15% (fresh out of CD's and waiting to go into stocks)

I wanted 10-12 years in fixed income to ride out any potential problems with the markets so that determined my allocation. As I get more comfortable with being retired, I may lower this and increase my equity holdings.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by tludwig23 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:12 am

70/30

Age 48.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by ankonaman » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:38 am

MichaelRpdx wrote:58 and 80/20.

My Bogle-ization is only a couple of years old. After managing my own individual equity holdings during both 2008 and 2000 volatility just doesn't scare me so much.
Same here. Managed my own stock, options and futures through the downturns. Piled cash in after the crashes and did quite well.
We are 58 & 56 with 56% stock 26% bond 18% cash.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by rallycap » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:22 am

I'm 41, wife is 37

70/30 stocks/bonds

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Bill M » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:31 am

We're both 63. We have a bond ladder that will provide 40 years of income. The remainder is 75% stocks. So overall we're 28% stocks.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by jstash » Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:34 am

34 years old, 90/10.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by asif408 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:23 am

Simplegift wrote:Not only are Bogleheads' stock allocations higher than they were in 2009, they appear to be even higher now than they were in 2007, before the stock market meltdown (chart below) — based on the data linked to above by ruralavalon, from previous Boglehead polls on the same question.

It's understandable — as interest rates have fallen lower, stock allocations have nudged higher.
It would be interesting to survey those Bogleheads with 100% stocks to find out how big their emergency funds and income are. I imagine most have a sizeable emergency fund and a sizeable income. We know from previous surveys here that most Boglehead's income is much higher than the national average.

I think for the average person who can't max out retirement accounts, doesn't have a huge emergency fund, and has an average income, 100% stocks would be a very risky proposition. But for Bogleheads with 100% stocks with a large emergency fund and very high income the risk is much less.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Frisco Kid » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:38 am

Age 61 and 62 70% stocks split 50% US and 20% Intl 30% bonds. All in index funds

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by max12377 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:09 am

Simplegift wrote:One final observation from the data so far: Not only are Bogleheads in all age groups today being much more aggressive in their stock allocations than Mr. Bogle's standard recommendation of "age in bonds," but older Bogleheads are, relatively speaking, being a bit more aggressive than younger Bogleheads:
  • Image
Again, this is most likely a reflection of today's very low interest rate environment.
Thanks for that observation. I agree. It seems back in 2008 allocations that were discussed were more conservative .
I have no proof of it other than my recollections of reading the board around that time. I personally would add more bonds but it feels like it would be locking myself into poor returns. Granted stocks could crash way more but perhaps there is greater potential for upside long term. Which is why most of us are there .

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Andyrunner » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:14 am

80/20 age 30. Wife and I are currently vested in a pretty good pension which allows me to be a bit more aggressive than age in bonds. If the pension ends or changes for the worse by the time we retire hopefully the more aggressive portfolio makes up for that.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by SimpleGift » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:36 am

max12377 wrote:I personally would add more bonds but it feels like it would be locking myself into poor returns. Granted stocks could crash way more but perhaps there is greater potential for upside long term. Which is why most of us are there.
Yes, it's hard to believe that back on this day in 2007 (June 25), the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was yielding over 5% (5.09% to be exact) — compared with today's rate of 2.4%. This decline in interest rates was bound to put subtle pressure on investors to nudge up their stock allocations a bit, seeking higher returns — pressure from which Bogleheads (myself included!) have apparently not been entirely immune.
Cordially, Todd

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by midareff » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:41 am

I'm 67, wife is 52. Presently at 49/49/2 equities/bonds/cash. My cola'd pension contributes 44% of our income, SS is 20% and the portfolio the remaining 36%. Pension and SS pay all normal expenses + some left over. Two comma portfolio at 3% pays for luxuries, foreign travel and the "finer" things. Taxable is roughly 63% equities and 37% bonds (munis), IRA is about 35% equities 65% bonds (corporates). Thinking about raising cash to about 6% in the next few weeks which would let me coast to RMD if needed.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by victork » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:56 am

I'm 71.
36% stocks, 64% bonds.

Since I have enough, I'm not as aggressive as others might want to be.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by JimmyD » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:10 am

33 years old. We're 85/15 for now.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by just frank » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:19 am

I'm 47, wife is 50.

We're 89% Equities, 11% TIAA-Guaranteed.

Context: Two tenured profs planning on working awhile with excellent job security.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Bacchus01 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:41 am

asif408 wrote:
Simplegift wrote:Not only are Bogleheads' stock allocations higher than they were in 2009, they appear to be even higher now than they were in 2007, before the stock market meltdown (chart below) — based on the data linked to above by ruralavalon, from previous Boglehead polls on the same question.

It's understandable — as interest rates have fallen lower, stock allocations have nudged higher.
It would be interesting to survey those Bogleheads with 100% stocks to find out how big their emergency funds and income are. I imagine most have a sizeable emergency fund and a sizeable income. We know from previous surveys here that most Boglehead's income is much higher than the national average.

I think for the average person who can't max out retirement accounts, doesn't have a huge emergency fund, and has an average income, 100% stocks would be a very risky proposition. But for Bogleheads with 100% stocks with a large emergency fund and very high income the risk is much less.
Well, I count my emergency fund in my numbers, so you can't be 100% equity AND have a cash emergency fund, but I understand what you mean.

I don't really keep an emergency fund, per se, I just keep a cash balance in a couple MM accounts. If I take that out, the ratio is around 95/5 (equity/bond) for the remainder.

For me, our cash fund is about 9 months of living expenses. But, I also consider our HSA and Roth IRA contributions as part of our "emergency" fund because we could dip into them at a days notice without tax consequences. That total, with cash, is about 15 months of living expenses.

As for income, according to most calculators, it's in the top 1%.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by tuckeverlasting » Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:00 am

I am 65 yo at 40/stocks, 60/bonds. All in total market index funds, with a dollop of Intermediate Investment-Grade.
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by dougp29 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:49 am

I'm 66. 60% Stocks/40% Bonds & Cash

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by DFrank » Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:50 am

We are 60/51, and are at 46% equity/54% fixed income.

We have about enough to retire, and are planning to do that next year, so we've been slowly taking some risk out of the portfolio.
Dave

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Groundhog » Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:53 am

Our average age: 56 and currently 54/46.

Will be moving to 50/50 at retirement in 2018 and holding there.

50/50 seems a popular choice for retirement.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by vectorizer » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:04 pm

57 YO, 56/44 in January after rebalance.

For the last 8 years or so, been getting 2 points more conservative per year, then at 60 (50/50) plan to get 1 point more conservative per year.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by SimpleGift » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:30 pm

Just to update the old chart (n = 62) to include all the recent poll responses (n = 120 now). The slope of the trend line hasn't changed appreciably with all the new additions, so we must be capturing a fairly representative sample of Bogleheads. Thanks to everyone who answered the poll question!

Image
Note: In the cases of paired investors, the age charted is the average of the two.
Cordially, Todd

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by sarahjane » Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:46 pm

74/72 20 stocks; 35 bonds; 45 cash.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Dolphin1 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:21 pm

Age 47, around 67% stock, 30 % bond, 3% cash.

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Toons » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:30 pm

64
75/25 Stock Bond :happy
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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by engineerartist » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:38 pm

I am 69 and 31% Fixed Income, 53% Dividend Growth Stocks and 17% Real Estate (Home Equity). Retired last year and living on dividend income + SS.
Retired - dividend growth investor

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Rl2 » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:53 pm

I'm 32

As of today:
81.52% equity (54.16% US, 27.36% Intl)
18.48% bond/cash

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Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Post by Crow Hunter » Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:58 pm

Target is Age-10 in bonds with 40% International.

Currently 41 and 30.6 Bonds, 46.9% US, 22.5% International.

Driving towards a target of 27.6% International via taxable account purchases.

I am currently a little over 1/2 way to our stretch goal "number". If, by chance, we hit that earlier than projected, I will probably drop down to a 50/50 and leave it there.

I haven't decided yet and it looks like I will have plenty of time to decide. :D

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