International - Who really is at 40%

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renue74
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International - Who really is at 40%

Post by renue74 » Mon May 11, 2015 7:36 am

I see a lot of talk to "going to 40%" for International stock fund allocation, but who is there? Is now a good time to do this?

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon May 11, 2015 7:43 am

Does 39.8% count? :D That is 39.8% of total equities held is in international equities. The remainder is in US equities and Reit. I consider Reit to be a subset of equity. The time to have done it was about 18 months to two years ago when prices were really cheap, but there is no time like the present if it meets your risk threshold and ability to stay the course. Don't change your allocation if you are a)uncomfortable with it and b)if you lack a plan. Following the crowd is not a plan nor is it a good way to manage risk.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by niceguy7376 » Mon May 11, 2015 7:45 am

I am in intl stock at 50% of us stock and my current AA is 50/25/25 because of becoming a boglehead a year and half back and slowly moving into index funds.
But from this quarter, all my new money is going into Bonds as I need to get it up by 10% in the next two years as per my plan. I will also do my annual rebalance in a couple of months (Anniversary month of when I turned Boglehead) and will visit the intl allocation then.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon May 11, 2015 7:47 am

niceguy7376 wrote:I am in intl stock at 50% of us stock and my current AA is 50/25/25 because of becoming a boglehead a year and half back and slowly moving into index funds.
But from this quarter, all my new money is going into Bonds as I need to get it up by 10% in the next two years as per my plan. I will also do my annual rebalance in a couple of months (Anniversary month of when I turned Boglehead) and will visit the intl allocation then.
In other words, you are 33 1/3 percent International Equity. (25/75)
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by miles monroe » Mon May 11, 2015 7:50 am

heres the first thing i could find before i answered; from the wsj:

But correlation isn’t the same as total return. During the five-year period ended Dec. 31, 2007, before the real-estate bubble popped, U.S. stocks doubled, while international stocks tripled. The 14.2% annualized return of U.S. stocks was outpaced by that of international stocks at 24.6% annually.

Then both U.S. and international stocks plunged. In the nearly seven-year period since the end of 2007, U.S. stocks have gained an average 8.8% a year while international stocks declined by 0.9% a year.

i have about half my money in vanguard target retirement. the other half i manage becasue i'm smarter than vanguard. :) the equity portion of my half is 50-50.

not saying its right and everyone should do it. its just where i am right now.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by dh » Mon May 11, 2015 7:51 am

I think you are referring to Vanguard moving to 40% in their target date funds. It really depends on your plan. I was influenced by simplicity, convincing rational arguments to combat "home bias," and Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. I choose to satisfice and rebalance to 50/50 every year. Obviously last year, I would have benefited by being 100% US, and some years I would benefit by being 100% international, but trying to guess which would make me more speculator than investor.

As Taylor is found of saying, there is more than one road to Dublin. Find the path that fits you.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by dh » Mon May 11, 2015 7:57 am

niceguy7376 wrote:I will also do my annual rebalance in a couple of months (Anniversary month of when I turned Boglehead) and will visit the intl allocation then.
While I was slowly typing my reply, the message above came through. I love the fact that you chose your Boglehead anniversary date as your time to rebalance. I love that! I can envision numerous research studies comparing the optimal date to rebalance: end-of-year, birthday, July 4, or the day you became a Boglehead.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by RadAudit » Mon May 11, 2015 8:01 am

renue74 wrote:Is now a good time to do this?
If you could tell us when would be a better time and when that time would occur, we would be grateful - well, some of us. See Mr. Ferri's thread for comments. viewtopic.php?t=154400 But failing that special insight, the question would be at what point would it be acceptable to implement your plan to go to your chosen asset allocation? And my answer would be, now is as good a time as any.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by tainted-meat » Mon May 11, 2015 8:10 am

I was around 60% at the start of the year, probably more now since the recent run-up but I haven't done the calculation.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by jhfenton » Mon May 11, 2015 8:11 am

Our allocation is at 45% international: 15% developed large (VEA + DODFX), 15% international small (VSS), 15% emerging markets (VWO). At the moment, we're actually at 45.3% with fluctuations. (The DODFX / Dodge & Cox International is in our HSA, or it would be all VEA.)

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by Dandy » Mon May 11, 2015 8:11 am

For me you really can't tell how much risk is on the table until you talk percent of total portfolio not percent of equity allocation.

About 7% of my portfolio is in international stocks that is about 16% of my equity allocation. That is on the low side - my plans are to get it back to about 9% of my portfolio or about 20% of equity allocation. 7% is barely a meaningful allocation but 16% sounds more substantial.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by bigred77 » Mon May 11, 2015 8:32 am

46% of my equities are International.

35% of my whole portfolio is International Equities.

I overweight REITs, Small Cap, and EM on the International Side as well.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by nisiprius » Mon May 11, 2015 8:50 am

This being a somewhat Vanguard-oriented forum, the "talk" is probably related to Vanguard's announcement that they are going to 40% in their Target Retirement funds. Many Bogleheads who do not use the Target Retirement funds nevertheless take them as a sort of indication of what Vanguard's "recommendation" might be.

Vanguard's target date funds have shifted from 20% international--I think originally--to about 30% in 2010, and now to 40%.

As recently as 2007 or so, I'd been intending to maintain a 20% allocation, but accidentally let it get up to 20.5%, and at that time Vanguard's automated portfolio analysis tool gave me a big red caution because I was over 20%. Then a couple of years ago I let it get down to 19.5% and the same tool gave me a caution because I was under 20%.

Thus, in less than ten years, Vanguard's recommendation, in their portfolio analysis tool, has gone from recommending 20% as the maximum they recommend to its being the minimum the recommend.

My personal opinion is that when it comes to international stock allocation, Vanguard has not been "staying the course."

(Well... I haven't been, either. This is not any kind of advice or recommendation, and people shouldn't pay attention to me merely because I post a lot. I did decide to nudge my personal allocation up to 25%, a) because I wanted Vanguard's portfolio tool to quit nagging at me, b) I don't like to be too far from the mainstream conventional wisdom when I don't have strong personal convictions about something, and c) last but not least, posters like Noobvestor influenced me. The allocation then sunk all by itself down to perhaps 23%, and I'm willing to let it do whatever it wants to).
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by bnwest » Mon May 11, 2015 8:55 am

I am at 50%.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by nisiprius » Mon May 11, 2015 9:00 am

bnwest wrote:I am at 50%.
Curious: do you mean 50% as in "I intend to rebalance to that particular number?" Or do you mean "I intend to be at global market cap, which would currently be 51.7% U.S. 48.3% international, and that's 50/50 for all practical purposes?"
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by livesoft » Mon May 11, 2015 9:01 am

A time to go international was when it was tanking back in mid-December after a poor performance for 2014. One had a second chance to get the same prices around January 6, 2015. Right now, international in the form of VTIAX is up about 13% since then while US stocks are up about 8%.

I am almost at 50% of equities in international at the moment. Maybe it is time to rebalance out of international back to one's desired asset allocation in international?

So if one is going to increase their asset allocation to an asset class, see if you can do it when the asset class is out of favor and not when it is kicking butt. For instance, REITs were out-of-favor in the middle of last week.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by rotorhead » Mon May 11, 2015 9:07 am

Int'l allocation plan is 27%, currently sitting at 24.5%. No changes foreseen.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by donaldfair71 » Mon May 11, 2015 9:09 am

I'm at 34% of equities in International. I don't aim for any target except to keep it within 30-50% of equities.

I keep this flexible because of a few reasons:

I try not to dwell too much on allocation US/International because no one knows for sure. Stock/Bond allocation is much more important in my mind. I keep that much more targeted.

I only have US Stock and US Bond Index funds in my 403b. So I get my international exposure from my IRAs. Depending on life changes (I have one kid on the way, another is 2 years old- Contributions went down. Paid off my college loan and my wife's will be paid off in 22 months- contributions will go up), I have contributed anywhere from 16-35% of my salary to my retirement accounts. The fixed amount of max out IRAs will always be International (VXUS). My fluctuating ones will be 403b. This year, for example, about 65% of my contributions will be international. I have gone years where only 35% was international. Until my international passes world weighting, I won't fret either way and just continue to dump $$ into my accounts without fretting about a perfect allocation.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by oldzey » Mon May 11, 2015 9:10 am

0% :sharebeer

Well, unless you count half of the revenues from outside the U.S. in my U.S. securities...
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by beammeupscotty » Mon May 11, 2015 9:14 am

I'm at 55% foreign equities.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by letsgobobby » Mon May 11, 2015 9:14 am

Target 60%, currently 62%.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by NoRoboGuy » Mon May 11, 2015 9:15 am

I was at 50% a year or two back, then nudged it down to 40% after reading this Vanguard paper.

Specifically, I chose 40% after taking this conclusion into consideration:

"Allocations closer to 40% may be suitable for
those investors seeking to be closer to a market-
proportional weighting or for those who are hoping
to obtain potentially greater diversification benefits
and are less concerned with the potential risks and
higher costs. On the other hand, allocations closer
to 20% may be viewed as offering a greater balance
among the benefits of diversification, the risks of
currency volatility and higher U.S. to non-U.S. stock
correlations, investor preferences, and costs.
"
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Rx 4 investing
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by Rx 4 investing » Mon May 11, 2015 9:18 am

I use Vanguard's Portfolio Watch tool...

50% international on the stock side. Rationale: lower CAPE 10s abroad.

12.5% international on the bond side. Mix: 50% diversified int'l + 50% emerging markets.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by stemikger » Mon May 11, 2015 9:19 am

oldzey wrote:0% :sharebeer

Well, unless you count half of the revenues from outside the U.S. in my U.S. securities...
+1

0%. I'm in good company with Oldzey and Mr. Bogle.

I'm very happy with my two fund all U.S. index portfolio. Vanguard Institutional Index and Black Rock U.S. Debt Index.

I also get instant diversification because many companies in the 500 Index get more than 40% of their revenues from overseas. I get the benefit without the currency risk. I know many are in disagreement, but I side with Mr. Bogle when it comes to not needing it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-0 ... -u-s-.html
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by camper » Mon May 11, 2015 9:20 am

Our AA states for us to be at 40% of equities in intl. Currently we are ~42% intl because of performance.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by vitaflo » Mon May 11, 2015 9:21 am

I've been at 30% for many years and have no plans on changing, but this thread is interesting given that just 6 months ago we had several "why even bother with International?" threads.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by sharpjm » Mon May 11, 2015 9:31 am

33.9% of my equities are International. 73.6% developed / 26.4% emerging

I'm slowly increasing international by applying 40% of all contributions to international.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by meaghansketch » Mon May 11, 2015 9:33 am

nisiprius wrote:
bnwest wrote:I am at 50%.
Curious: do you mean 50% as in "I intend to rebalance to that particular number?" Or do you mean "I intend to be at global market cap, which would currently be 51.7% U.S. 48.3% international, and that's 50/50 for all practical purposes?"
Not bnwest, but I am also at 50%, by which I mean I intend to rebalance to that number. I think there may be some rebalancing bonus in maintaining a constant allocation rather than staying at global market cap. Obviously that relatively high (though slightly lower than market cap) allocation has hurt my returns the last few years but my reasons for going to 50% remain the same as they were then, so I don't see a reason to change.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by midareff » Mon May 11, 2015 9:34 am

35.5% of total equities or 17.3 % of total portfolio and climbing.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by kramer » Mon May 11, 2015 9:43 am

I am 63% equities. I only have 58% of that in foreign. I have maintained a pretty similar allocation ever since I started investing about 15 years ago.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by dh » Mon May 11, 2015 9:50 am

vitaflo wrote:I've been at 30% for many years and have no plans on changing, but this thread is interesting given that just 6 months ago we had several "why even bother with International?" threads.
I remember those threads too. Can anyone say recency bias? Six months ago (nearing the end of 2014) US was "beating" International by +9% YTD. Hence, the questions came out, why not just be 100% US? If international outperforms this year, we might even see threads in November "why even both with US stock?" threads.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by nisiprius » Mon May 11, 2015 10:30 am

vitaflo wrote:I've been at 30% for many years and have no plans on changing, but this thread is interesting given that just 6 months ago we had several "why even bother with International?" threads.
Yes! Excellent observation.

I haven't looked recently. Have international stocks been outperforming in the last few months?

Image

Yup.

Wonder if my international allocation really is 23.5%? (Pause to check) Nope, I mis-spoke in my previous posting, it's up to 24.5%.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by inbox788 » Mon May 11, 2015 10:51 am

nisiprius wrote:
vitaflo wrote:I've been at 30% for many years and have no plans on changing, but this thread is interesting given that just 6 months ago we had several "why even bother with International?" threads.
Yes! Excellent observation. I haven't looked recently. Have international stocks been outperforming in the last few months?
Yes. I wish I was since the beginning of this year. I've been under target for a while now, and slowly (too slowly) moving higher. Still, I'm not eager to make big adjustment. I've benefited from the US outperformance the last few years, so I guess I'm reverting towards the mean. Still, with larger portion of new contributions going towards international combined with continuing international outperformance (maybe), I'll be heading to 40% faster.

I'm of the opinion that large US conglomerates are in the same ocean as large international conglomerates, so they'll have similar expected performance averaged out over all the companies over large periods of time, hence anywhere between 25% to 75% international is adequate. Holding F, GM, KFC, MCD is essentially holding 40% international. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100870316

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y& ... &c=%5EGSPC
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y& ... &c=%5EGSPC
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y& ... &c=%5EGSPC

If Abenomics and Euro QE are responsible for the performance gap rather than real economic progress, this shorter term outperformance may not last.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by EnjoyIt » Mon May 11, 2015 11:26 am

Everyone seamed to recommend between 20%-40% in international when I started indexing. Since I realize I have no clue what I'm doing, I took the number in the middle and have been 30% ever since. I have no interest in changing that without a really really good reason. Since I doubt I will ever know what I am doing, I am going to stick with 30% for a long time.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by timboktoo » Mon May 11, 2015 11:45 am

I have a 50/50 split between Total US and Total International on the equity side. I do this because it's what I'm most comfortable with.

- Tim

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by bnwest » Mon May 11, 2015 11:46 am

nisiprius wrote:
bnwest wrote:I am at 50%.
Curious: do you mean 50% as in "I intend to rebalance to that particular number?" Or do you mean "I intend to be at global market cap, which would currently be 51.7% U.S. 48.3% international, and that's 50/50 for all practical purposes?"
I rebalance to that number, every other year whether it needs it or not. :happy

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by lckamp » Mon May 11, 2015 12:08 pm

I have been running 50% foreign equities in a 60% Equity/40% Fixed Income and Cash portfolio for a number of years and am quite satisfied with the overall performance.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by furwut » Mon May 11, 2015 12:33 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:Everyone seamed to recommend between 20%-40% in international when I started indexing. Since I realize I have no clue what I'm doing, I took the number in the middle and have been 30% ever since. I have no interest in changing that without a really really good reason. Since I doubt I will ever know what I am doing, I am going to stick with 30% for a long time.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... t-02262015

Here is Vanguard's reasoning:
Benefits of international diversification

Vanguard research found that non-U.S. equities have diversified the returns of U.S. equities on average over time. Meanwhile, U.S. and international bond prices are relatively uncorrelated (meaning they don't generally rise or fall, based on the same factors), so increasing exposure to non-U.S. investments serves to further diversify the funds' overall bond portfolios.

"International holdings are a valuable diversifier in a balanced portfolio, giving shareholders exposure to return streams that don't move in lockstep with the US markets. It has become easier to capture these diversification benefits as the costs of international investing have decreased," said Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Tim Buckley. "We carefully debate the merits of proposed changes to our Target Retirement Funds and other funds-of-funds, and make them when deemed to be in the best, long-term interests of our clients."
As for Vanguard not staying the course - well when your analysis changes shouldn't you revisit your recommendations?
Holistic approach to allocation decisions

Since introducing the Target Retirement Funds in 2003, Vanguard has only made a few allocation changes. Increased global diversification has been a consistent theme, with the addition of emerging market exposure to "near-dated" funds in 2006, increased exposure to international equities in 2010, and the addition of international bonds in 2013.

Such changes grow out of an approach that embraces a wide range of expert perspectives including portfolio construction research, input from consultants and retirement plan sponsors, and analysis of investment behavior. Changes are only implemented when long-term investor benefits are clear.
Personally I've set my international allocation at 30% - the mid-point of Vanguard's former recommendation. Having followed Vanguard's advice initially I feel I should consider staying THAT course and increase to 40%.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by RNJ » Mon May 11, 2015 12:36 pm

Currently bit over 50% international (including EM). Long term allocation target 50% with no plans to change.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by Khanmots » Mon May 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Been at roughly 55% since I took over from my "advisor" roughly 4 years ago. I didn't think about changing it when it was under-performing US, likewise I'm not thinking about changing it now. My allocation isn't based on performance, so recent events aren't tempting me to change it.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by TinkerPDX » Mon May 11, 2015 12:52 pm

50/50 US/Ex-US for equity.

My allocation within the ex-US portion, using Vanguard (RIRA) and Schwab (401k) is:

24% developed (VEA / SCHF)
12% emerging (VWO / SCHE)
18% MC/SC (VSS / SCHC)
36% value (VTRIX / FNDF)
10% REIT (VNQI / -- )

(For context, US equity allocation is 60% LC, 15% MC, 15% SC, 10% REIT, with 50-50 splits between total market and value for LC/MC/SC)

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by renue74 » Mon May 11, 2015 1:45 pm

When I posed the question this morning, I didn't realized that quiet a few are actually over the 40% mark! I checked my AA this morning and I was at 10%, but I have a heavier bond funds allocation right now that I'm looking to transfer to Intl stock funds.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by KyleAAA » Mon May 11, 2015 1:50 pm

I'm 50% international.

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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by pdriese » Mon May 11, 2015 2:32 pm

I'm 65% international and 35% domestic for my equities. Overall I have 25% of my total portfolio in bonds (G Fund).

It's hard for me to believe that if John Bogle happened to be Canadian, British, or something besides American he would still espouse a 100% U.S. equity allocation. If you believe in market cap indexes you should also use the market cap worldwide (which is around 50% U.S.). Many argue that about half of the revenue from U.S. companies comes from outside the U.S. Likewise, international companies get a lot of their revenue from the U.S. so I think having a 0% international allocation based on that is not wise.

I started heavily tilting toward international about 15 months ago. I didn't work out well for me in 2014, but it's working out great in 2015. Besides, CAPE, PB, PE, Dividend Yield and other valuation factors still heavily favor international markets. It's definitely not too late, but get a plan first and stick with it.
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by bargainhuntingking » Mon May 11, 2015 2:36 pm

Me. I also tilt toward EM and international small cap.

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englishgirl
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by englishgirl » Mon May 11, 2015 2:46 pm

Currently my equities are split 58:42 between US and international.

I used to be at 50:50, but it dropped when I changed my AA around to be more lazy (more in balanced funds like Lifestrategy Moderate Growth, less in individual funds).
Sarah

HongKonger
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by HongKonger » Mon May 11, 2015 2:59 pm

Equities currently split 69% non-US, 31% US.

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grabiner
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by grabiner » Mon May 11, 2015 3:33 pm

I am 50% international, and have been 50% international for years.

My logic is that I also overweight small-cap and emerging markets, and I expect international small-cap and emerging markets to be better diversifiers for a US-based stock portfolio. When I recommend versions of the three-fund portfolio, I normally recommend 30% international stock.
Wiki David Grabiner

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dbCooperAir
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by dbCooperAir » Mon May 11, 2015 3:43 pm

Been at 30% for a number of years, 40% seems within reason as well (closer to market weight).

I have no plans on changing but.........If I was going to change I maybe to tempted to make it 50/50 just because of the easy math and I happen to like nice straight even clean lines, 40% is close enough to 50% right!

I'm at 30/70 with a three funds but as time goes on I have thought about:
25% US Equities
25% International Equities
25% Medium Term Bond Fund
25% Short Term Bond Fund, Tips, Ibonds, CD's etc.

Its that nice and simple clean line all things equal again :wink:
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. | -Dwight D. Eisenhower-

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ivyhedge
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Re: International - Who really is at 40%

Post by ivyhedge » Mon May 11, 2015 4:00 pm

At 49% international.
Polymath.

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