My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

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larryswedroe
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My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by larryswedroe » Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:11 pm

I know many of found these to be of interest so here's the link


http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... out-in-qtr
And interested can follow my musings at ETF.com and find the collection of posts in the sections tab under index investor where you can also find articles by Allan Roth and Rick Ferri

I also write now for mutualfunds.com
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner


Best wishes
Larry

LateStarter1975
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by LateStarter1975 » Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:26 pm

Larry, that's very insightful. Another good reason not to follow the predictions of so-called experts. Thanks for posting.
Debt is dangerous...simple is beautiful

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nisiprius
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by nisiprius » Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 pm

I love Larry Swedroe's "sure thing review" columns.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

james22
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by james22 » Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:02 am

Picked up pennies in front of the steamroller. Score: +1

RunningRad
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by RunningRad » Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:21 am

Welcome back, Larry. I enjoyed the column, and more generally, the etf.com series.
Few decisions in life motivated by greed ever have happy outcomes--Peter Bernstein, The 60/40 Solution

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kingsnake
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by kingsnake » Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:11 am

Perhaps the only sure thing is that there are no sure things?

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fortyofforty
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by fortyofforty » Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:20 pm

Ouch. Each of your "sure things" was backed by logic and reasoning. Any yet most failed to occur. That is a powerful lesson, and backs up the concept of having an investment plan and sticking with it no matter what the pundits say about macroeconomic factors.
Indexing works, not because of magic, but because of math. | Diligentia. Vis. Celeritas. - Jeff Cooper | Original Vanguard Diehard

clast
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by clast » Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:06 pm

"Nobody knows nothin'" -- John Bogle

I have his voice burned into my brain, from this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI

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fortyofforty
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by fortyofforty » Fri Apr 10, 2015 3:02 am

clast wrote:"Nobody knows nothin'" -- John Bogle

I have his voice burned into my brain, from this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI
Yes, Jack's famous, gravelly voice. Thank goodness for "Raymond", one of the old runners, who gave that bit of insightful information to Bogle. And, since this is Jack Bogle, and we are on Bogleheads, I got to learn something about "runners" and what they did exactly.
Indexing works, not because of magic, but because of math. | Diligentia. Vis. Celeritas. - Jeff Cooper | Original Vanguard Diehard

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JoMoney
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by JoMoney » Fri Apr 10, 2015 4:49 am

fortyofforty wrote:...Thank goodness for "Raymond", one of the old runners, who gave that bit of insightful information to Bogle. And, since this is Jack Bogle, and we are on Bogleheads, I got to learn something about "runners" and what they did exactly.
You might find this old 1958 video about "How the NYSE Works: Brokers and Bidders" interesting as well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74L2aEHBtCk
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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nedsaid
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by nedsaid » Fri Apr 10, 2015 10:57 am

The sad thing is that I would have agreed with most of the "sure things." I certainly have my convictions as I invest my hard-earned money but I realize that my convictions might be wrong. This is why I am so cautious when making changes to my portfolio. I could be wrong!
A fool and his money are good for business.

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grap0013
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by grap0013 » Sat Apr 11, 2015 6:06 am

I think I can do better than the consensus sure things by using math and logic:

Gold historically has matched inflation, inflation is low so too should be gold returns.

Small caps have a better than 50:50 shot at greater returns than large caps. If I'm going to take a stance it will be that small caps outperform for any given year. I'll be right more than I'm wrong. I think valuation differences between small cap and large cap are difficult to accurately compare.

Valuations: international much more favorable than US. Therefore, I'm going to keep picking international and especially EM to outperform US based on the current info. available.

Interest rates: coin flip.

dollar strength: coin flip.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

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Runalong
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Re: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

Post by Runalong » Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:14 pm

Yep. The things "everybody knows" to be true have all been priced into the market by the big players by the time Larry (or anyone else) publishes them for the rest of us to see. Then, anything that happens that confirms the consensus is deemed irrelevant (we already knew that) and has little effect, while anything that happens that contradicts the consensus creates movement in the opposite direction of what was predicted. Contrarian investing on a macro scale.

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