Bear market warning sign

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Valuethinker
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Bear market warning sign

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:03 am

I just invested some (new) money into:

- European equities
- Fixed interest (UK corporate bonds BBB and above credit rating)

Also switched some money into Emerging Markets. This is all to do with our tax year, which ends 5th April 2015.

There's a distinguished history of my investments being followed by financial crises of various sorts. I remember being proud of making a particularly big contribution to my pension in January of 2000. And I put money into the markets in August 2008.

livesoft
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by livesoft » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:08 am

Thanks for calling it like you see it. :)
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an_asker
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by an_asker » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:25 am

Valuethinker wrote:I just invested some (new) money into:

- European equities
- Fixed interest (UK corporate bonds BBB and above credit rating)

Also switched some money into Emerging Markets. This is all to do with our tax year, which ends 5th April 2015.

There's a distinguished history of my investments being followed by financial crises of various sorts. I remember being proud of making a particularly big contribution to my pension in January of 2000. And I put money into the markets in August 2008.
I will sell some, so market timers can play the trade. I've a history of helping the market rise, even when I sell 10 measly shares (of anything)!

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Ged
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Ged » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:36 am

an_asker wrote: I will sell some, so market timers can play the trade. I've a history of helping the market rise, even when I sell 10 measly shares (of anything)!
Thank you for your contribution to my comfortable retirement.

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k66
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by k66 » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:48 am

Thank you Valuethinker for your correlative heads-up!
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

airshow
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by airshow » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:55 am

...and investors continue to think there are no concrete signals for a market turndown.

The proof is right here.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:03 am

Here's another sign, hot off the presses: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist ... 03963.html
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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nedsaid
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by nedsaid » Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:03 am

This is another discouraging thing that happens to investors. That is seeing the markets drop right after you invest. This is just part of the process, it happens to all of us.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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6miths
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by 6miths » Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:08 am

Thanks for the heads up... I was thinking of buying more VTI but I think that I'll hold off or the whole edifice will likely come crashing down. I was right there with you in June 2008. Maybe it was the two of us who were responsible for the entire thing? :D
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain

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Maynard F. Speer
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Maynard F. Speer » Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:37 am

Interestingly - as an irritatingly contrarian personality - I spent 2014 buying European stocks, when no one wanted them (I remember daily interviews on CNBC and Bloomberg with people asking "where is growth in Europe going to come from?", "avoid!")

This year everyone's bullish over European, Chinese and Japan QE .. And I'm buying hedge funds .. (I keep far too much in cash, so any predictive ability my personality may have is probably nullified by my overcaution)

My completely speculative prediction is that one bit of bad news in the biotech sector will trigger a major market correction in US equities
"Economics is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions." - John Maynard Keynes

Valuethinker
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:11 pm

6miths wrote:Thanks for the heads up... I was thinking of buying more VTI but I think that I'll hold off or the whole edifice will likely come crashing down. I was right there with you in June 2008. Maybe it was the two of us who were responsible for the entire thing? :D
Anybody who has the Leafs as an avatar has a fondness for lost causes ;-). .... I gave up when Harold Ballard was still alive (I have a friend whose father attended *every* sports event he could in his life, and watched the rest on TV *but* he had some falling out with Ballard, and Maple Leaf Gardens was the one place he never attended thereafter).

Canadian dollar is getting cheap, but I figure there's a lot more in it: with the oil price crashing and when the Toronto and Vancouver housing bubbles blow, we could be back to 80 cents.

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6miths
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by 6miths » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:21 pm

Did you mean 60 cents? It will eventually get there again. Yes the Leafs... I am off to see them tonight against Tampa Bay. Hoping for a loss to get a better position in the McDavid sweepstakes. I was sitting with my 16 year old son the other day and started wondering if the Leafs would win a Stanley Cup in HIS lifetime. You'd think reversion to the mean and all that!
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain

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packet
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by packet » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:41 pm

6miths wrote:Did you mean 60 cents? It will eventually get there again. Yes the Leafs... I am off to see them tonight against Tampa Bay. Hoping for a loss to get a better position in the McDavid sweepstakes. I was sitting with my 16 year old son the other day and started wondering if the Leafs would win a Stanley Cup in HIS lifetime. You'd think reversion to the mean and all that!
I'm torn... I'd relish a Bolts defeat right a'boot now... but I've always had a soft spot for the Leafs and wouldn't mind seeing McDavid play there.

:beerCheers,
Packet
(Habs fan)
First round’s on me.

ubermax
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by ubermax » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:48 pm

yes and the market responded to you Yellen and the Fed by 264 positive :happy

Flashes1
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Flashes1 » Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:57 pm

Due to my annual bonus being paid on 2/28, I made a big 401k contribution that day-------of course the markets have been very dicey since then! Why does it alway have to be painful.

dh
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by dh » Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:28 pm

Valuethinker wrote:I just invested some (new) money into:

- European equities
- Fixed interest (UK corporate bonds BBB and above credit rating)

Also switched some money into Emerging Markets. This is all to do with our tax year, which ends 5th April 2015.

There's a distinguished history of my investments being followed by financial crises of various sorts. I remember being proud of making a particularly big contribution to my pension in January of 2000. And I put money into the markets in August 2008.
Who says no one rings a bell at the top? 8-)

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speedbump101
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by speedbump101 » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:39 pm

Valuethinker wrote:I just invested some (new) money into:

- European equities
- Fixed interest (UK corporate bonds BBB and above credit rating)

Also switched some money into Emerging Markets. This is all to do with our tax year, which ends 5th April 2015.

There's a distinguished history of my investments being followed by financial crises of various sorts. I remember being proud of making a particularly big contribution to my pension in January of 2000. And I put money into the markets in August 2008.
If you jinxed the market again I think you should rebrand yourself as 'Valuesinker.' :-)

Did someone mention the Leafs? Let it be known that the Edmonton Oilers are attempting to emulate their
delirium dive.

SB...
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein

Jim180
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Jim180 » Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:20 pm

Now you'll have everyone in European and Emerging Market countries mad at you when their stocks plummet.

Valuethinker
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Apr 01, 2015 4:08 am

6miths wrote:Did you mean 60 cents? It will eventually get there again. Yes the Leafs... I am off to see them tonight against Tampa Bay. Hoping for a loss to get a better position in the McDavid sweepstakes. I was sitting with my 16 year old son the other day and started wondering if the Leafs would win a Stanley Cup in HIS lifetime. You'd think reversion to the mean and all that!
You are right I did mean 60 cents-- the thing has dropped away so rapidly, and since I am now sterling based, I don't pay as much attention as I used to.

The Leafs -- I think they *did* win a cup in my lifetime... yes they did (1967).

What it needs is a fan's strike. It's just too lucrative a franchise so the owners never have to invest in it.

Valuethinker
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Apr 01, 2015 4:15 am

speedbump101 wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:I just invested some (new) money into:

- European equities
- Fixed interest (UK corporate bonds BBB and above credit rating)

Also switched some money into Emerging Markets. This is all to do with our tax year, which ends 5th April 2015.

There's a distinguished history of my investments being followed by financial crises of various sorts. I remember being proud of making a particularly big contribution to my pension in January of 2000. And I put money into the markets in August 2008.
If you jinxed the market again I think you should rebrand yourself as 'Valuesinker.' :-)

Did someone mention the Leafs? Let it be known that the Edmonton Oilers are attempting to emulate their
delirium dive.

SB...
I am very good at catching the falling knife. From the perspective of 2060 my investment decisions will look shrewd.

Pray that I don't become an Oilers fan, or the team is doomed-- doomed, I say!

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DaftInvestor
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by DaftInvestor » Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:09 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Here's another sign, hot off the presses: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist ... 03963.html
Just caught up on this thread and read this article - it gave me a good laugh! Especially this bit:

"“If nothing else, reduce your stock portfolio to where it was on the first of January last year, put the money into cash and take a nice long summer holiday,” said Jakobsen, 50, also chief investment officer at the Danish lender. “You won’t make any money, but you lose all the downside risk.

I wonder if this guy knows how silly he sounds to many of us and wonder if this fortune-teller will tell everyone when it is safe to get back in - after the summer or after 12 months or after 24 months....
If your goal is to "lose all the downside risk" without care of making money - why are you in the market to begin with.....

Gnirk
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Gnirk » Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:12 pm

nedsaid wrote:This is another discouraging thing that happens to investors. That is seeing the markets drop right after you invest. This is just part of the process, it happens to all of us.
Yup. Every time I invest. :oops:

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Random Musings
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Random Musings » Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:05 pm

Just click your Berluti's three times and say "This time it will be different".

But not too hard, don't want to scuff 'em.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

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ogd
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by ogd » Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:06 pm

Timely Dilbert, via Ritholz:

Image

Dulocracy
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Dulocracy » Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:00 pm

Similarly, I let my neighbors know it is going to rain after I wash my car. I actually had my car washed on Monday. Wednesday, a flock of birds that ate some purple berries apparently flew over it. At least it looked good on Tuesday...
I'm not a financial professional. Post is info only & not legal advice. No attorney-client relationship exists with reader. Scrutinize my ideas as if you spoke with a guy at a bar. I may be wrong.

Twins Fan
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Twins Fan » Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:24 pm

I was thinking of telling everyone not to worry about it because this Friday/today was a contribution day to my deferred comp. As per usual on contribution day, things are looking a bit up today. I didn't want to jinx it, but maybe I should have said something earlier. No need to worry about a bear market, as I contribute every other week on pay day. :D

I kid, of course.

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avenger
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by avenger » Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:59 pm

Twins Fan wrote:I was thinking of telling everyone not to worry about it because this Friday/today was a contribution day to my deferred comp. As per usual on contribution day, things are looking a bit up today. I didn't want to jinx it, but maybe I should have said something earlier. No need to worry about a bear market, as I contribute every other week on pay day. :D

I kid, of course.
The market was closed today!
cheers ... -Mark | "Our life is frittered away with detail. Simplify. Simplify." -Henry David Thoreau | [3 fund portfolio: VTI, VXUS, SV fund (yield 3.01%)]

Twins Fan
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Re: Bear market warning sign

Post by Twins Fan » Fri Apr 03, 2015 6:13 pm

Was it?! I didn't even know that. :oops: :eek:

Shows how much I'm paying attention! :happy

Well, things were up a little yesterday then.

Wonder when my contribution will go off of then... if I got paid today, yesterdays or Mondays closing time?

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