My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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jimgour
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:31 pm
Location: New Mexico

My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by jimgour »

I received this message from a good friend this morning. Obviously he is not a Boglehead, but he was lucky this time (Note - I'm sure he is joking with his last sentence):

The other day I bought KRFT (Kraft - the food company) it simply had a nice buy set up and we were trading it in the room. It looked like a stock I could hold for a few days so I bought options in it to buy 1,000 shares - 10 contracts for about $100.00/contract. I woke up this morning to find that Kraft and Heinz are merging and the Kraft stock went from $62 to $82 - making the total worth of my contracts now worth about $20,000. It should have been a nice $1000 trade if it worked out. I'm not sure if I should tell [my spouse]. :>)
Jack FFR1846
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Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square

Re: My Lucky Friend

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

I bought poloroid shortly before it declared bankrupsy. It cured me of short term trading. Somehow, I feel my lesson was more valuable than yours
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
barnaclebob
Posts: 5564
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:54 am

Re: My Lucky Friend

Post by barnaclebob »

Im sure he isnt so forthcoming with emails about his losses.
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Random Musings
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Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 3:24 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: My Lucky Friend

Post by Random Musings »

Another story to toss into the anecdotal evidence drawer.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
ShiftF5
Posts: 751
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:59 pm

Re: My Lucky Friend

Post by ShiftF5 »

barnaclebob wrote:Im sure he isnt so forthcoming with emails about his losses.
Years ago I had a friend that made frequent day trips to Las Vegas.

If he "hit it big" I'd get the phone call, if not -- crickets.

Human nature, I guess.
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jimgour
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:31 pm
Location: New Mexico

Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by jimgour »

Barnaclebob wrote:

"Im sure he isnt so forthcoming with emails about his losses."

Mr first reaction to my friends email was to write something back to that effect. However, what I decided was to post his email, and then after a number of Boglehead responses, send him a link to my post with all your responses. Keep them coming, and make them good, or even "teachable". He may learn something, or who knows, he may teach us something. Either way, I'll bet he'll enjoy the comments. At least I hope he will.

Jim
TravelerMSY
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Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by TravelerMSY »

Too bad for the poor guy that sold him the calls.
ShiftF5
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:59 pm

Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by ShiftF5 »

Enjoy it while it lasts. :twisted:
bberris
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Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by bberris »

I have never been to a Gambler's Anonymous meeting, but I'm guessing they begin this way: I am addicted to gambling. It started when I won a few bucks ...
barnaclebob
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Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:54 am

Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by barnaclebob »

"it simply had a nice buy set up"

Statements like these hold no weight with people who only make 20k on a trade like this.

Its kind of like a small stakes blackjack player telling you sure fire ways to win...
Last edited by barnaclebob on Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:07 am, edited 3 times in total.
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bottlecap
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Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 10:21 pm
Location: Tennessee

Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by bottlecap »

Kraft timing threads are popping up like mad. I wonder why we didn't hear about the sure-thing nature of the stock a month ago!

JT
3504PIR
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Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by 3504PIR »

Why not just tell him well done and be done with it?
Boglegrappler
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Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:24 am

Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by Boglegrappler »

There's some chance that he's nervous about being investigated for insider trading.

I'd be surprised if a Buffett type transaction developed a leak, but sometimes a small leak can turn into a larger one. The SEC and the exchanges will be looking carefully at any suspicious volume, especially in options, ahead of the market. They do that for every takeover where there is a "stock pop".
poker27
Posts: 1149
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:48 pm

Re: My Lucky [Trading] Friend

Post by poker27 »

Wins like this can really play with your mind, and think you can beat the system.

Before my BH days...
I bought Ford below $2 back in 2008-2009, I believe I sold it for around $5 unfortunately
I bought SIRI for pennies, below .20 if I remember correctly.
A few other banks and such.
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