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Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:16 am
by Day9

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:47 pm
by Runalong
On 4/2/15 (see above) Maynard Speer shared the ten stocks little Jimmy randomly picked and sort of "predicted" that these random stocks would have a very good chance of beating the S&P over the remainder of the year. Regarding 4 of Jimmy's 10 picks, I responded later that same day as follows:

"I non-randomly predict that TRV & TSO will outperform VTR & SJM the next 3 quarters. It's too small of a sample to mean anything but let's check back at the end of the year and see if my prediction would have been worth more or less than 1ยข to Jimmy."

While it's only been 7 months, I just remembered this exchange today (after reading one of today's posts on the forum) and went back to check up on it (I'll probably forget to do so at the end of the year but feel free to remind me). As of mid-day today:

The S&P 500 is up 1% since April 2.

TRV is up 9%, TSO is up 34% (average gain: 21.5%)

VTR is down 26%, SJM is up about 7.5% (average loss: almost 10%)

Jimmy's other six picks, about which I had no special conviction (based on my quants) either way, are down an average of 4.5%.

Like I said above, it doesn't prove anything, but I'm still happy to take a moment and gloat!

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

Posted: Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:31 pm
by zotty
Browser wrote:"Tilting" toward factors like small and value are like taking investment "vitamins."
haha. Great analogy. There are many of us who believe that vitamins are a waste of money. :)