John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

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Prague
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Prague » Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:14 pm

Not peeking costed me 28% from loss of possible gain. Had I peek, I would have made proper adjustment in time.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Fallible » Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:41 pm

toto238 wrote:I feel like Bogle's "don't peek" challenge is more of an illustration of the point he's trying to make, and less a serious challenge. His point is that the more changes you make, the more finnangling you try to do, the worse off you'll be.

I don't think he actually expects someone to not look at their finances for 40 years. If someone does, great, but it's not natural for a human to not be curious.

I take it as a lesson of "the less you look, the better off you'll be, because the less tempted you'll be to change things".
Agree and here is one way Bogle put it in an interview with Forbes:

“As I have said before, the daily machinations of the stock market are like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” Bogle added. “One of my favorite rules is ‘Don’t peek.’ Don’t let all the noise drown out your common sense and your wisdom. Just try not to pay that much attention, because it will have no effect whatsoever, categorically, on your lifetime investment returns.”
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stemikger
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:52 am

Great replies and I do understand that fraudulent activity is a serious issue and may warrant peeking.

Jack has often said most investors can do very well with one fund. His choice is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund. If that is the case, other than worrying about your account being hacked, you really can get by without peeking.

I have a very simple investing life and I realize others may not follow that path and may have to track their funds more often. I currently hold the two fund portfolio 65/35 stocks/bonds all U.S. and all indexed. I am going to leave it at that AA until I turn 55 and then bring it down to 60/40 and leave it there for a very long time and who knows maybe forever - if I choose to roll it over into the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund. At that point I will justify that by looking at social security as a portion of my fixed income holding.

I do like the Badass Boglehead challenge, but I know I will probably fail miserably.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Wagnerjb » Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:40 am

Kevin M wrote:
Wagnerjb wrote: That is a ridiculous idea. Intelligent investors will be watching for the need to rebalance and the opportunity to tax loss harvest. That might be appropriate for less sophisticated investors, but it is horrible advice for anybody else.
OP has only a balanced fund and no taxable investments, so no rebalancing or tax-loss harvesting to do!
That is fine....but he should not be recommending this strategy of "not looking" for other investors without clearly stating this is for people with very simple portfolios.

Best wishes.
Andy

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Trader Joe » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:36 am

stemikger wrote:As most diligent savers and investors, I look at my investments way too often.

Who would like to take the "Don't Peek Challenge with me.''

His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement and be ready to have a cardiologist nearby because you may need one when you see how much is in there.

Or the modified version and only peek once every two or three years.

I'm in starting today!
I cannot accept your challenge. I review at my investment portfolio periodically for a variety of necessary reasons.

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tadamsmar
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by tadamsmar » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:43 am

Vanguard says you have a responsibility to peek as an anti-fraud measure:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/S ... ontent.jsp

But monitoring your email from Vanguard seems to be a good anti-fraud practice, if you can keep your email account secure.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by ofcmetz » Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:12 am

I think people should check their bank accounts online every few days for fraud. It happens more often than people think based on the reports we take at work. I've never taken a report for an investment account theft.

I update my investment spreadsheets every week, but think that once a month would probably be plenty. It only takes me a few minutes to check all our accounts, and I'm not too excited or sad based on the weekly movements. I realize that I could give up the gains pretty quickly and that I can also recover from losses just as fast. It's just reassuring to me to see that the shares are still there.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:02 am

What evidence is there that being informed about your financial situation is worse than being uninformed?

The idea that it is preferable to be uninformed is so patently absurd that I think the people saying this need to back it up.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:39 am

Wagnerjb wrote:
stemikger wrote:As most diligent savers and investors, I look at my investments way too often.

Who would like to take the "Don't Peek Challenge with me.''

His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement and be ready to have a cardiologist nearby because you may need one when you see how much is in there.

Or the modified version and only peek once every two or three years.

I'm in starting today!
That is a ridiculous idea. Intelligent investors will be watching for the need to rebalance and the opportunity to tax loss harvest. That might be appropriate for less sophisticated investors, but it is horrible advice for anybody else.

Best wishes.
I have to agree with you here, I will have to decline the challenge, I monitor my accounts for re-balancing and potential TLH opportunities should they arise. The object here is to minimize taxes legally and increase returns, leaving an account with multiple pieces unmonitored could be a recipe for disaster.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:41 am

ofcmetz wrote:I think people should check their bank accounts online every few days for fraud. It happens more often than people think based on the reports we take at work. I've never taken a report for an investment account theft.

I update my investment spreadsheets every week, but think that once a month would probably be plenty. It only takes me a few minutes to check all our accounts, and I'm not too excited or sad based on the weekly movements. I realize that I could give up the gains pretty quickly and that I can also recover from losses just as fast. It's just reassuring to me to see that the shares are still there.
I check my credit cards every couple of days, have e-mail alerts sent to me if debits on bank accounts or charges on credit cards exceed a certain threshold. Can't be too careful these days.

Have you taken a report for the latest string of calls for IRS issues? How about fake Veterans of America looking for handouts? - that one really ticks me off. Also, the fake benevolent Detectives Association of (insert your state name here) - another one that ticks me off.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Quickfoot » Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:24 am

That's good advice for people incapable of handling risk but if people understand how the market works and know they will stay the course they don't gain anything.

My 401K is at Vanguard and I check it but that's to make sure my employer is depositing my contributions and match, not to see how it is performing. I'm confident that my asset allocation will return good growth over the next 28 years, I don't need to know or even care what it is doing today or even the next few years.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by SC Hoosier » Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:27 am

stemikger wrote:As most diligent savers and investors, I look at my investments way too often.

Who would like to take the "Don't Peek Challenge with me.''

His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement and be ready to have a cardiologist nearby because you may need one when you see how much is in there.

Or the modified version and only peek once every two or three years.

I'm in starting today!
I need to look a lot less. I'll take the challenge not to look for a year. Starting NOW!!!!!

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Random Musings » Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:16 pm

I do peek:

- For rebalacing purposes
- If I have to roll into new individual TIPS or CD
- To make sure new monies are received
- To make sure not any unusual activity is occuring in my accounts

I'm sure people don't look at store receipts either, but I don't want to have to go back to correct their mistakes on my dime.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by ofcmetz » Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:56 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Have you taken a report for the latest string of calls for IRS issues? How about fake Veterans of America looking for handouts? - that one really ticks me off. Also, the fake benevolent Detectives Association of (insert your state name here) - another one that ticks me off.
^ all of the above and many more. Some of the frauds are so basic and obvious that it amazes me that they work so consistently. It is extremely common for bank accounts and credit cards to be compromised. People put their information out there for others to steal and use on the Internet and through routine transactions all the time. I can't emphasize enough that its important for people to check their bank and credit accounts regularly for fraudulent activity. Why not check one's investment accounts often for the same reason?
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Tamales » Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:21 am

If someone followed a plan of putting periodic investments on autopilot and not looking/monitoring their account for decades (ignoring the valid points about account errors and/or fraud), would it follow that their plan should be to invest 100% in stocks, no bonds?

The psychological cushion of having bonds as part of your portfolio (e.g. to avoid knee-jerk exits from the market right at the worst time) would seem unnecessary if you ignored looking at the account details for decades. You can't react to what you don't see.

I can't recall for sure, but if total stock market has beat a stock/bond blend (any percent split) for every rolling period of say 20 or more years, that might be a (statistically) defensible plan.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:12 pm

Tamales wrote:If someone followed a plan of putting periodic investments on autopilot and not looking/monitoring their account for decades (ignoring the valid points about account errors and/or fraud), would it follow that their plan should be to invest 100% in stocks, no bonds?
As we age and as our financial situation changes so should our asset allocation. Never looking may work with a target retirement fund. One can tell Vanguard not to accept any transactions by phone or electronically but then one would have to not open the conformation letters. The only way to NEVER look is to have someone else handle the account with instructions never to change anything.

It's like when the wolf man knows there will be a full moon and locks himself up giving the key to someone and telling them no matter what they hear they must not open the door.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Silence Dogood » Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:32 pm

I don't peek very often with my Roth account (I simply contribute the maximum at the beginning of the year).

I do look more often at my 401(k) account. Sometimes I need to adjust my contribution rate depending on how much I need to spend. I'm also hoping to do an in-plan Roth conversion some time this year, once they allow it.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:39 pm

I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by EnjoyIt » Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:49 pm

Ooops, I peaked.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by bengal22 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:19 pm

I never peak at my investments but I do look at them(aggregate) daily and review monthly. I have no problem whatsoever not touching anything unless it is a once or twice rebalancing. I check daily because I enjoy and I am on the internet anyway. But one is a worrier or a tinkerer than maybe you shouldn't peak. To each his own..... I think the more one learns about investing the better one will be.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by tadamsmar » Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:38 pm

555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.
There is a boat-load of research on it:

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/fac ... ePaper.pdf

At minimum, it's a waste of time, it's sub-optimal behavior that's associated with other sub-optimal investing behaviors.

So there!

Don't peek again till you have checked all the equations in that paper I linked.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Fri Mar 20, 2015 5:22 pm

555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.
I'll teach you how to use google. There are numerous articles about it. Also, just check out You Tube where he also says it in numerous interviews.

With over 2,000 posts, I may be a bit of a flake, but I'm not a B.S. artist.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-m ... 2014-12-11
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:42 pm

stemikger wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.
Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.
I'll teach you how to use google. There are numerous articles about it. Also, just check out You Tube where he also says it in numerous interviews.
With over 2,000 posts, I may be a bit of a flake, but I'm not a B.S. artist.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-m ... 2014-12-11
You have provided no evidence for your claim "His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement". If he really did say something like that, (and I'll believe it when I see it, but you are yet to show it) I'm sure it would just be hyperbole to make a point. Obviously it would be extremely reckless and crazy to actually do this.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:43 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.
Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.
There is a boat-load of research on it:
https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/fac ... ePaper.pdf
At minimum, it's a waste of time, it's sub-optimal behavior that's associated with other sub-optimal investing behaviors.
So there!
Don't peek again till you have checked all the equations in that paper I linked.
I don't need some study to conclude the obvious, which is that people who pay no attention to their financial situation will generally be worse off than people who do pay attention.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:46 pm

I actually think it is a good idea for anyone invested in volatile assets like stocks, to frequently watch the wild fluctuations for a while so they get used to it, as a kind of immunization against the noise.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:47 pm

Oh and the spelling police tell me that people peek, markets peak.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:18 pm

555 wrote:
stemikger wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.
Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.
I'll teach you how to use google. There are numerous articles about it. Also, just check out You Tube where he also says it in numerous interviews.
With over 2,000 posts, I may be a bit of a flake, but I'm not a B.S. artist.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-m ... 2014-12-11
You have provided no evidence for your claim "His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement". If he really did say something like that, (and I'll believe it when I see it, but you are yet to show it) I'm sure it would just be hyperbole to make a point. Obviously it would be extremely reckless and crazy to actually do this.
The exact quote is;
‘Don’t peek.’ Don’t let all the noise drown out your common sense and your wisdom. Just try not to pay that much attention, because it will have no effect whatsoever, categorically, on your lifetime investment returns.”

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:38 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:The exact quote is;
‘Don’t peek.’ Don’t let all the noise drown out your common sense and your wisdom. Just try not to pay that much attention, because it will have no effect whatsoever, categorically, on your lifetime investment returns.”
Right. That's completely different to the extreme suggestion in the OP.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:22 am

555 wrote:
stemikger wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.
Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.
I'll teach you how to use google. There are numerous articles about it. Also, just check out You Tube where he also says it in numerous interviews.
With over 2,000 posts, I may be a bit of a flake, but I'm not a B.S. artist.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-m ... 2014-12-11
You have provided no evidence for your claim "His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement". If he really did say something like that, (and I'll believe it when I see it, but you are yet to show it) I'm sure it would just be hyperbole to make a point. Obviously it would be extremely reckless and crazy to actually do this.
He really did say this. Unfortunately, I don't have time to look for the You Tube video where he says it at the end, and when I have time I will. Here it is on the web.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le7804961/

If you don't want to follow the link he says it in the last paragraph below.
What keeps you awake at night?

Nothing. Just invest, and don’t peek. Don’t open your retirement plan contribution statements every quarter. Put in money regularly, and when you retire 40 or 50 years later, and open the statement for the first time, you run the high risk of heart failure – you’ll be stunned at how much money you have accumulated.
He also says it in this video. This is not the video I am trying to find but he says it here also. It is at 3:30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0aK0eBV4aA
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by John3754 » Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:35 am

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by fortyofforty » Sat Mar 21, 2015 9:16 am

I am sort of in the same boat as above. I like when the market goes down because I am still accumulating. But I do like when it goes up, though, because the overall value of my portfolio increases. I know markets fall, but if I am higher up when they do, they'll fall to a "higher bottom" than otherwise. I check my porfolio once a week, in part to make sure nobody is messing around with it (hackers), and partly because I want to employ a rebalancing strategy based on percentage changes in the values of the underlying funds. By the way, Warren Buffett's comparison of investing with buying hamburger at the supermarket when it's on sale is imperfect because, unlike with true hamburger, we are all sitting on a freezerfull of "hamburger" at home, the value of which increases and decreases dramatically, so it's better for us when "hamburger" increases in value.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Leif » Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:15 pm

No way. How do you stay the course when you are blindfolded?

It not so much how often you look, but your self control. To get self control you need to educate yourself from this site and read the right books. I know one person, very intelligent, never looks at her portfolio, and yet in 2008-2009 everyone was telling her the sky was falling and she needed to get out of the market. She did.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Mr. Digweed » Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:44 pm

My dad had (back in the day before computers) Value Line and his broker called nearly every day. He kept daily tabs by looking in the back sections of the newspaper to track his stocks. Bit different today

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:21 pm

Leif wrote: I know one person, very intelligent, never looks at her portfolio, and yet in 2008-2009 everyone was telling her the sky was falling and she needed to get out of the market.
When "everyone" is doing something it is time to be a contrarian. When it comes to investing "everyone" is usually wrong.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by wassabi » Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:38 pm

555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.

You're wrong, OP got it from a recent video interview of Bogle that was posted to this forum. Bogle didn't challenge anyone, he just emphatically made the point that an individual could not look at their balance until they retire...and when they do look to have a doctor nearby because they will go into cardiac arrest over the size of the portfolio.

Edited to add: the video is at this link: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=161140#p2419031

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:29 pm

wassabi wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.

You're wrong, OP got it from a recent video interview of Bogle that was posted to this forum. Bogle didn't challenge anyone, he just emphatically made the point that an individual could not look at their balance until they retire...and when they do look to have a doctor nearby because they will go into cardiac arrest over the size of the portfolio.

Edited to add: the video is at this link: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=161140#p2419031
I am not wrong. He says it right there in his video. I'm the one who made it into a challenge. But how am I wrong? He clearly said it. Agree or disagree, that is a different matter, but John Bogle suggest we do it.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Sat Mar 21, 2015 6:42 pm

stemikger wrote:I am not wrong. He says it right there in his video. I'm the one who made it into a challenge. But how am I wrong? He clearly said it. Agree or disagree, that is a different matter, but John Bogle suggest we do it.
Mr. Bogle was talking about 401(K) plans and said it isn't something people really can do. 401(K) plans do not need attention like other investments. I didn't look at my 401(K) for about five years, I was no longer eligible to make contributions and there was no way anyone could hack into it as it was not available online. I actually forgot about it.

Jump to 25:20 if you want to hear just the quote. But the entire interview is interesting; Mr. Bogle is telling it like it is with money changers sitting at the same table. They were flustered but dared not challenge him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBTSslX ... ztsFvzSK1g

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by 555 » Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:39 pm

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
stemikger wrote:I am not wrong. He says it right there in his video. I'm the one who made it into a challenge. But how am I wrong? He clearly said it. Agree or disagree, that is a different matter, but John Bogle suggest we do it.
Mr. Bogle was talking about 401(K) plans and said it isn't something people really can do. 401(K) plans do not need attention like other investments. I didn't look at my 401(K) for about five years, I was no longer eligible to make contributions and there was no way anyone could hack into it as it was not available online. I actually forgot about it.

Jump to 25:20 if you want to hear just the quote. But the entire interview is interesting; Mr. Bogle is telling it like it is with money changers sitting at the same table. They were flustered but dared not challenge him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBTSslX ... ztsFvzSK1g
Okay I see what he says. But it's just hyperbole. He's trying to make a point.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by wassabi » Sat Mar 21, 2015 9:39 pm

stemikger wrote:
wassabi wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.

You're wrong, OP got it from a recent video interview of Bogle that was posted to this forum. Bogle didn't challenge anyone, he just emphatically made the point that an individual could not look at their balance until they retire...and when they do look to have a doctor nearby because they will go into cardiac arrest over the size of the portfolio.

Edited to add: the video is at this link: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=161140#p2419031
I am not wrong. He says it right there in his video. I'm the one who made it into a challenge. But how am I wrong? He clearly said it. Agree or disagree, that is a different matter, but John Bogle suggest we do it.
No, I was saying 555 is wrong. You are right. Read my message above. I am posting a link to the actual video which you posted a few weeks ago and in which Bogle talks about not looking at statements until retirement. My message is agreeing with you.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by BogleBoogie » Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:46 pm

Peeking frequently makes you numb to the roller coaster ups and downs. The numbness is what helps you prepare for doing nothing when there is an event that causes you to believe now is the time to time the market (buy or sell). Keep looking while staying the course!

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:37 am

wassabi wrote:
stemikger wrote:
wassabi wrote:
555 wrote:I call BS. Bogle didn't make this challenge. OP is just making this up.

Anyway, merely "peeking" does absolutely no harm whatsoever. The whole thing is completely ridiculous.

You're wrong, OP got it from a recent video interview of Bogle that was posted to this forum. Bogle didn't challenge anyone, he just emphatically made the point that an individual could not look at their balance until they retire...and when they do look to have a doctor nearby because they will go into cardiac arrest over the size of the portfolio.

Edited to add: the video is at this link: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=161140#p2419031
I am not wrong. He says it right there in his video. I'm the one who made it into a challenge. But how am I wrong? He clearly said it. Agree or disagree, that is a different matter, but John Bogle suggest we do it.
No, I was saying 555 is wrong. You are right. Read my message above. I am posting a link to the actual video which you posted a few weeks ago and in which Bogle talks about not looking at statements until retirement. My message is agreeing with you.
Sorry about that. Thanks for clearing that up.

Steve
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:40 am

Mr. Digweed wrote:My dad had (back in the day before computers) Value Line and his broker called nearly every day. He kept daily tabs by looking in the back sections of the newspaper to track his stocks. Bit different today
Thank God Mr. Bogle came along. I imagine it would be hard to practice simplicity like that.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:08 am

John3754 wrote:
stemikger wrote:But hey if you don't want to do it, I could care less.
You could care less, or you couldn't care less?
O.K. I deleted the part of my post where I said this, not sure you felt the need to put it back in. If it is not helpful to others and it is just to prove me wrong, where are the benefits?
Last edited by stemikger on Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by stemikger » Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:16 am

SC Hoosier wrote:
stemikger wrote:As most diligent savers and investors, I look at my investments way too often.

Who would like to take the "Don't Peek Challenge with me.''

His extreme version is not to look at it until you are ready for retirement and be ready to have a cardiologist nearby because you may need one when you see how much is in there.

Or the modified version and only peek once every two or three years.

I'm in starting today!
I need to look a lot less. I'll take the challenge not to look for a year. Starting NOW!!!!!

Hoosier
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by wolf359 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:10 am

[quote="tadamsmar"]Vanguard says you have a responsibility to peek as an anti-fraud measure:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/S ... ontent.jsp

But monitoring your email from Vanguard seems to be a good anti-fraud practice, if you can keep your email account secure.[/quote']
Go through your Vanguard Account Maintenance Settings and set up e-mail and text alerts on all activities in your account. Especially check the boxes for asset transfers, establishing/changing bank accounts, trades, and checks being disbursed.

Then you will be notified by text instantly if something untoward happens, and you're covered for the "monitoring for fraudulent activity."

Not Peeking makes sense because since 1929, the number of days with gains roughly equaled the number of days with losses. Psychologically, this makes people nervous, because ever other time you look, you see a loss. If you extend that time period out and only look once a year, your chances of seeing a gain vs. a loss is 3 out of 4. (On average, the stock market is up 3 years out of every 4.) Psychologically, this is much better, and it's much easier mentally to STAY THE COURSE.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by JimmyD » Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:37 am

Another vote for checking both the market and my portfolio every day.

That said, I only make changes when my defined asset allocation is out of whack by 5% or more (and I check that monthly), but I probably have stronger willpower than a lot of folks.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Dulocracy » Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:38 am

I peek, but I no longer tinker. Originally, I had a set Asset Allocation. I was not happy with it, so I re-did it over and over. Oddly enough, I kept coming up with the exact same percentages, even though I was doing it from scratch without looking a the already-set allocation. I realized I was being silly.

Now, I peek. As I re-balance with new money, I would miss any re-balancing if I did not peek.
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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Dandy » Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:27 pm

I listened to the video where Mr. Bogle was discussing not peeking at your 401k statement until you were 85. It wasn't a serious recommendation it was an illustration of how much people should ignore the day to day moves of the market. If that is what this post is about I'd seriously doubt that Mr. Bogle would agree.

Think about it don't peek until retirement is hard enough to swallow but don't peek till 85 - not a serious recommendation. The message is don't focus on market changes and you will not be tempted to make changes to your portfolio.

I think someone should ask him is he serious before people are encouraged to walk off this cliff.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Uncle Pennybags » Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:54 pm

Dandy wrote:I listened to the video where Mr. Bogle was discussing not peeking at your 401k statement until you were 85.
Mr. Bogle said 85 when you retire. He will be 85 on May 8th. I wonder if he will change it to 90 before one can peek. I hope so because because when he talks "financial advisers" sweat.

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Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Post by Fallible » Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:16 pm

Dandy wrote:I listened to the video where Mr. Bogle was discussing not peeking at your 401k statement until you were 85. It wasn't a serious recommendation it was an illustration of how much people should ignore the day to day moves of the market. If that is what this post is about I'd seriously doubt that Mr. Bogle would agree. ...
Now there's at least three of us on this thread saying what Bogle really meant by "don't peek": you, toto238 and me, but is anybody listening? In my post, I used a Bogle quote from an interview in Forbes:

“As I have said before, the daily machinations of the stock market are like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” Bogle added. “One of my favorite rules is ‘Don’t peek.’ Don’t let all the noise drown out your common sense and your wisdom. Just try not to pay that much attention, because it will have no effect whatsoever, categorically, on your lifetime investment returns.
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