REIT predictions for 2015

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REIT predictions for 2015

-31% or less
0
No votes
-21% to -30%
1
3%
-10% to -20%
4
10%
-1% to -9%
8
20%
0% to 5%
10
25%
6% to 10%
12
30%
11% to 20%
5
13%
21% to 30%
0
No votes
31% or more
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 40

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InvestorNewb
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REIT predictions for 2015

Post by InvestorNewb »

Without looking at what the "experts" are guessing, how do you think US REITs (VNQ) will fare in 2015? Do you have any particular reasons for your guess?

VNQ makes up about ~17% of my portfolio, so I enjoyed the returns last year. In our early start to the year, they are also proving to be a good diversifier.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)
staythecourse
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by staythecourse »

The answer is... nobody knows. Just like it was the beginning of last year when everybody was down on REITS at the end of 2013.

Don't know the data on REITS, but the data on large cap, small cap, long government bonds, and long corporate bonds have a serial autocorrelation from year to year of ZERO. SO that means what happens one year has NO effect on the returns on the next year.

Investing becomes MUCH easier when you accept there is no reason anything goes up or down from year to year.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle
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saltycaper
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by saltycaper »

I hope it fairs poorly... so I can buy some. Sorry. :D
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
shawcroft
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REIT predictions for 2015

Post by shawcroft »

Because REITs are tax-inefficient , I'm guilty of "tilting" a bit towards REITS in my tax-deferred account. Since I also have the Total US Stock Market index fund in my holdings, I'e begun to wonder how much 'tilt" towards REITs I actually have. I think I read on the Forum that REITs make up about 3% of the Total US Stock Market. Is that about right?
Shawcroft
surfstar
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by surfstar »

I purchased VDE today instead of VNQ as I figured one was on "sale" vs the other (*yes I know, no one knows the answer, but both total ~5% of my portfolio currently)

I do wish I had more if it [VNQ] at the start of last year!


oh, yeah, I predict it will go up, down or sideways and most likely, all of the directions.
EarlyStart
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by EarlyStart »

I really have no idea, but I'm going to guess that they're negative by year end. Just based on the amount of people asking about them, it seems like serious performance chasing. If interest rates go up, you're going to get wacked, but maybe they won't. People have been expecting rates to rise for years and they haven't.
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White Coat Investor
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by White Coat Investor »

I voted for a decline based on RTM and likelihood of interest rates rising. I'm not selling any though, so take that for what its worth.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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siamond
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by siamond »

Fundamentals seemed pretty bad a year ago, I chose to split 50/50 between US and International REITs, and... US REITs went up 30%... Early 2015, fundamentals aren't exactly pretty, so... :confused

I certainly enjoyed the ride of my REITs (10% of my AA), but I did rebalance to my target AA, while keeping the split. I would be very wary about doing anything else.
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packet
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by packet »

shawcroft wrote:... wonder how much 'tilt" towards REITs I actually have...
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Percenta ... ndex_funds

:beerCheers,
Packet
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gkaplan
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by gkaplan »

You omitted the following poll options:

I don't know.

I don't care.

I don't know, and I don't care.
Gordon
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leonidas
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by leonidas »

I don't have a separate REIT allocation so from a disinterested party I will say down 7.5% + or - 15%....
Buddtholomew
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by Buddtholomew »

I wonder if I should sell... I won't "lose" any of my original principle if I do.
The above quote should sound familiar to the OP, taken from a post in May 2013. By now he/she should realize that REITS go up and down and up and down. You have already witnessed a couple of cycles for yourself. You are trying to time your way in and out. Stop focusing on one asset class and look at the portfolio as a whole.

Good luck.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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abuss368
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Re: REIT predictions for 2015

Post by abuss368 »

gkaplan wrote:You omitted the following poll options:

I don't know.

I don't care.

I don't know, and I don't care.
Hi Gordon,

Are you a REIT investor? If so, do you invest in U.S. and / or International REITs?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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