What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

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Browser
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What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Browser » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:16 am

Half of the predictions I make are right -- unfortunately I can't predict which half.

I'd like to turn the annual predictions game on it's head to see if this upside-down perspective has some value. Instead of trying to predict what will happen to your investments in 2015, what do you think will be the biggest left-field surprises that hardly anybody is looking for? I'm trying to improve what I already know will happen by including what I don't know will happen as well :D , and would appreciate input. I'm not interested in what I (or you) think will actually happen, but what I (and you) know can't possibly - or is highly unlikely - to happen. These are the things that will really determine what happens with our investments in the coming year. Of course, we need to observe forum guidelines, so some "can't happen" candidates might be out-of-bounds.

I'll start with this one. I figure there's almost no chance this can happen in 2015:

Stocks will tank while gold soars

Now it's your turn.
Last edited by Browser on Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:35 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by richard » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:17 am

What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
If we told you, it wouldn't be a surprise.

:P

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by staythecourse » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:11 pm

Browser wrote:Stocks will tank while gold soars
Why would this be a surprise? Serial correlation of large cap and small cap stocks since the 1920's from one year to the other is ZERO. So stocks doing well last year has NO effect on their performance this year.

I can easily see the market drop 20% just as easily as it goes up by 20%. Since gold goes up or down 50% of the time stocks go up or down their is just as good of a chance they will go up as they will go down at the same time per Erb and Harvey article several years ago.

Good luck

p.s. My left field prediction would be unexpected inflation in the 6-10% category with the fed starting a serious smack down with high interest rates.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by chaz » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:35 pm

Gold will tank.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:38 pm

International Large Cap Value outperforms foreign mid/small cap and emerging market equities.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by tadamsmar » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:39 pm

The bull market will continue.

Someone's biggest investment surprise will fail to surprise someone else.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by ripete » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:47 pm

The Wilpons will claim that their Madoff losses have all been recouped, they'll spend on the Mets like drunken sailors, and the Mets will pretend it's 1986 all over again and win it all.
This, would be the biggest investment surprise, to my reckoning :mrgreen:

Oh, yes, and Mr. Nourini will have positive things to say about the economic future of the world. :beer
Last edited by ripete on Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by toto238 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:47 pm

Here are my sets of economic predictions, most of which will likely be wrong. I recognize there are many factors affecting each of the things mentioned.

1. US Stock market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than the past 2 years. I anticipate the S&P 500 returning between 5-10% this year
2. US GDP Growth will continue at a fast clip, between 3 and 4% next year
3. US inflation will remain tame at below 2%
4. The Federal Reserve will decline to raise their baseline interest rate of between 0 and 0.25% until 2016
5. Labor Market in the US will remain decent, though will seem frustatingly stalled as laborers who left the labor market don't seem to be coming back
6. Wage growth will remain tepid and barely keep up with inflation
7. Energy prices, namely oil and gas, will remain depressed, with crude oil (sweet) remaining below $70 a barrel for most of the year, though perhaps ending the year in the $70-80 range
8. Those depressed energy prices will fuel further political disruption in oil states such as Russia, Iran and other OPEC members
9. European and Pacific index funds will show some life as the dollar goes back to weakening somewhat, though not dramatically, still underperforming the US stock market in terms of dollars, not local currency
10. Pork belly futures will go down, and I'll be able to buy bacon much cheaper than it costs right now
11. Due to #10, my cholestrol will be increasing 10 points
12. Housing prices will increase at a rate slightly higher than inflation, but not by much
13. REITs will underperform the Total Stock Market, though still have a positive year
14. Gold/Silver will remain poor investments, shedding at least 10% of their value from today by year's end

Full disclosure: investments include only Vanguard Total funds and a small position in PRIMECAP. No tilts. Will not be changing that through the year.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by lws6772 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:12 pm

Oil will go back up, SURPRISE!
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by spectec » Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:19 pm

Gold will go up
Gold will go down

Stocks will go up
Stocks will go down

Interst rates will go up
Interest rates will go down


I'll guarantee that all 6 will happen in 2015.
This is coming from a guy who has memorized all the digits of pi.

And just like with pi, I'm just not detailng the order.
That's the surprise part if it.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by nanoanalyzer » Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:33 pm

Everything will be a surprise because, "Nobody knows nothin'!"
"If you think stocks are like physics, you believe there must be smart people who can measure exactly where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be in five months." -Morgan Housel

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by garlandwhizzer » Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:01 pm

Perhaps these predictions aren't surprises but here goes...

Returns on US equity and bonds will be positive but considerably lower than last year. Small caps will not outperform large caps in the US again in 2015. US REITS which had a fantastic 2014 will come back down to earth in 2015, positive returns but single digits in line with TSM. The wide disparity between US equity performance and International equities in 2014 will diminish, completely disappear, or possibly reverse in 2015. There will be considerable volatility in all equity markets.

Like all future market predictions these are not reliably accurate. Perhaps the only reliably accurate prediction that can be made now is that Mr. Market will have some surprises in store for us in 2015.

Garland Whizzer

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:07 pm

Browser wrote:...I'm not interested in what I (or you) think will actually happen, but what I (and you) know can't possibly - or is highly unlikely - to happen...
Very well.
  • Interest rates don't change at all.
  • The Treasury raises the annual purchase limit on Series I Savings Bonds to $40,000/year per individual, noting that "this restores the purchase limit to its traditional value, after allowing for inflation."
  • Meredith Whitney says "I'm sorry about what I said about municipal bonds in December, 2010. Boy, was I wrong on that one."
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics announces that henceforth it is going to exclude food and energy from CPI-U.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics announces that it secretly has never included food and energy in CPI-U--it listed them as individual items in its full report, but secretly never included them in the total--and got away with it because nobody ever checked.
  • David Ramsey, when quoting the "average" return of the stock market and of "good growth stock mutual funds," begins using the CAGR (geometric mean).
  • DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio, DSFVX, issues its semiannual report and the complete schedule of investments turns out to be:
    Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) 99.926%
    State Street Institutional Liquid Reserves, 0.074%
  • Morningstar introduces a 3-dimensional, 27-block "style cube" diagram to take account of one more factor.
  • The Bradford Exchange announces that it will accept bitcoin in payment for all Thomas Kinkade, Painter of Light® merchandise.
  • The Vanguard Group goes public, issues stock, raises ERs on index funds by 0.5%, and runs an ad on the Superbowl touting the Diversified Equity fund.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Random Musings » Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:03 pm

Active managers will outperform passive in all style boxes.

Bill Gross will return back to PIMCO.

Vanguard will shutter all of their active funds.

Warren Buffet will rewrite his will, stating that 90% of his wifes holdings should be equally split between frontier markets, uranium stocks and precious metals. The other 10% will remain in bonds.

Starting tomorrow, Nisiprius will post in Chaz fashion and Chaz will post in Nisiprius fashion.

Unfortunately, these events will cause a black hole to emerge near earth and engulf us all. The last words spoken will be "Sell, Mortimer, Sell".

RM
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:25 pm

Bogleheads will stop looking for ways to beat the market. They will settle down with a simple, inexpensive, diversified asset allocation that has risk they can tolerate, stay the course, be happy with their returns, and do something unrelated to investing. :wink:
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by toto238 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:28 pm

Tortoise wrote:Bogleheads will stop looking for ways to beat the market. They will settle down with a simple, inexpensive, diversified asset allocation that has risk they can tolerate, stay the course, be happy with their returns, and do something unrelated to investing. :wink:
Good point. The average "true" Boglehead is someone who doesn't spend all their time worrying about investment things. They spend their time living!

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by john94549 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:37 pm

Equities will not "tank", but they might revert to the mean. Not sure if this is a surprise, but after a prolonged cyclical bull, should anyone be surprised if that mundane CD ladder out-performs this year. This might well be the year "Cash is King".

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Epsilon Delta » Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:43 pm

So you can check how the pundits did last year, or edit your posts to make it look better.

Surprises in 2014

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by baw703916 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:46 pm

Bogleheads will stop debating the relative merits of tilting vs. total market.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Watty » Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:07 pm

What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Some unexpected sector will soar, and I will get a bit of the gains since my index funds cover it.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by baw703916 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:18 pm

Watty wrote:
Some unexpected sector will soar, and I will get a bit of the gains since my index funds cover it.
Just curious, when was the last year that didn't happen?
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by basspond » Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:30 pm

Deflation and government stalemates causing tax breaks to expire.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by hoops777 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:05 pm

Taylor will sell all his index funds and buy individual stocks,high yield junk bonds and then hire an investment firm that charges 3 pct to manage it all for him with full authority to buy and sell whatever they think is going to make them the most money.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by tc101 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:13 pm

SETI will identify an alien civilization broadcasting from a star thousands of light years away. This will totally change humanity's view of our place in the universe. People will be awe struck. After a period of amazement and shock, people will become more relaxed and happy. They will drink less alcohol and read more books. Alcohol stocks will go down in value. Independent book stores will make a come back.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by oldzey » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:26 pm

Vanguard will create a truly total U.S. bond index fund.
Last edited by oldzey on Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:27 pm

S&P will announce that they are discontinuing the process of committee selection of 500 leading companies in leading industries, and instead will make the S&P 500 a pure large-cap index consisting of the 500 U.S. stocks with the highest market capitalization.

Wilshire Associates will announce that the Wilshire 5000 index will now be known as the Wilshire 3700 Index, while the Wilshire 4500 will be renamed the Wilshire 3200.

Dow Jones will announce that they are renaming the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the Dow Jones Industrial Index, and henceforth will calculate it as a cap-weighted index instead of a simple price average. In order to facilitate the laborious calculations this will entail, they will trade in their top-of-the-line Comptometers for six IBM 407 Accounting Machines. IBM stock gains 7% on this announcement.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by market timer » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:49 pm

It is a widely held belief that hiking interest rates leads to lower inflation via the aggregate demand channel. It makes for an easy-to-understand story about the operation of central banks. However, the evidence for this is actually quite weak. I think the biggest surprise will be when the Fed starts hiking rates this year, my guess is in Q2, using the interest paid on excess reserves as the main policy lever, and inflation expectations actually increase. In other words, the market reveals that the way to achieve higher inflation is by paying higher interest on excess reserves. This causes a fundamental rethinking of central bank policy at the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. Rates move significantly higher around the globe, along with inflation expectations.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sat Jan 03, 2015 3:30 pm

hoops777 wrote:Taylor will sell all his index funds and buy individual stocks,high yield junk bonds and then hire an investment firm that charges 3 pct to manage it all for him with full authority to buy and sell whatever they think is going to make them the most money.
hoops777:

Thank you for a good chuckle.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Leeraar » Sat Jan 03, 2015 3:47 pm

Tortoise wrote:Bogleheads will stop looking for ways to beat the market. They will settle down with a simple, inexpensive, diversified asset allocation that has risk they can tolerate, stay the course, be happy with their returns, and do something unrelated to investing. :wink:
Bogleheads will stop using all their spare time to read and post on the forum, and instead use that time to tamper and tinker with their portfolios.

L.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Jan 03, 2015 3:56 pm

market timer wrote:It is a widely held belief that hiking interest rates leads to lower inflation via the aggregate demand channel. It makes for an easy-to-understand story about the operation of central banks. However, the evidence for this is actually quite weak. I think the biggest surprise will be when the Fed starts hiking rates this year, my guess is in Q2, using the interest paid on excess reserves as the main policy lever, and inflation expectations actually increase. In other words, the market reveals that the way to achieve higher inflation is by paying higher interest on excess reserves. This causes a fundamental rethinking of central bank policy at the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. Rates move significantly higher around the globe, along with inflation expectations.
Browser said "I'm not interested in what I (or you) think will actually happen, but what I (and you) know can't possibly - or is highly unlikely - to happen." Was that prediction of something you think might well happen, or is it something crazy that you think can't possibly happen?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by peppers » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:01 pm

BlackRock and Fidelity will merge.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by donocash » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:03 pm

Oil prices drop into the mid 30s/bbl

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by JMacDonald » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:04 pm

The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without someone asking about that guy Weiner.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Not Law » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:41 pm

[off-topic comments deleted by admin alex]

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by speedbump101 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:56 pm

lws6772 wrote:Oil will go back up, SURPRISE!

Agree, b/c currently there is no 'logical' narrative why this should happen, which is a good enough reason for me to say that it will. let's say WTI crude $70 +/- $5 :-)

Caveat, I've been wrong before!

SB...
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by gerrym51 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:59 pm

Oil will stabilize at about 75.00 dollarsa barrel

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by dougyg » Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:02 pm

It will be proven that eating Bacon daily can prevent Ebola...Port Belly futures will soar!

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Angst » Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:04 pm

Well, here are a few items that would surprise me...
  • Nisiprius will go all-in with SC Value slice & dice, including REITs, Int'l bonds and lots of CCF
  • Livesoft will dollar cost average his entire portfolio over the next 52 weeks into the core four
  • Grok will abandon TIPs
  • Abuss will decide whether or not to include TIPs in his portfolio
  • Kevin will stop making interest rate charts
  • RobertT will lose interest in factors
  • Larry will retire
  • Mel's mid-caps will find true love
  • I will win the 2015 Boglehead Contest
  • Taylor will arrive in Dublin

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by donocash » Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:29 pm

dougyg wrote:It will be proven that eating Bacon daily can prevent Ebola...Port Belly futures will soar!

I predict that trade in pork belly futures will come to an end . . . . . . . . .



in 2011.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by columbia » Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:07 am

The number of Bogleheads, who seem very open holding the global weighting of equities.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by Pizzasteve510 » Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:39 am

Will post first then read others:

- Interest rates will not rise. Rates may actually drop slightly.
- US will see a slight deflationary trend, led by declining energy, food and healthcare costs
- A major tech stick will drop 50% or more, e.g. APPL, GOOLE, FB, Ask
- Mobile payments, phone based payment, will start to take off, leading to nice gains for telecoms in that space.
- Use of drones for commercial purposes, such as safety, will get a lot of news coverage
- SpaceX will spur interest in Mars, briefly, but no new crashes and not much will happen
- Cruise industry will take off and be a top performer, investment wise

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by celia » Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:19 am

After all of Congress prepares their individual tax forms, things will be streamlined so you can file with 3 or fewer clicks on your computer.

People start paying attention to their finances and investment shows become the most watched shows on TV. (Our whole family used to watch Louis Rukeyser every Friday night on public television because he made it entertaining.)

Costs for medical services drop as people exercise, eat healthily, and follow doctors' orders.
A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in a taxable account. A dollar in taxable is worth more than a dollar in a tax-deferred account.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by beardsworth » Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:42 am

JMacDonald wrote:The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without someone asking about that guy Weiner.
The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without someone misspelling Dan Wiener's last name as "Weiner."

The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without anyone starting a new thread, in the last few days of any month when distributions typically occur, asking "Why did my fund's share price drop?"

The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without anyone starting a new thread about whether dollar-cost averaging is better than lump-summing, or vice versa.

The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without anyone starting a new thread with a syntactically awkward title, e.g., "29-year-old portfolio advice sought," thus causing me to think, again, just for an instant, Why would anybody care about portfolio advice from 1986? before I realize, again, that the poster himself must be 29 years old.

The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without anyone gloating about having gotten in early and owning some of those wonderful old 3.4% I Bonds.

The Bogleheads forum will go a whole year without anyone's elderly parents, or indeed any of us, making any foolish financial moves that need to be repaired. At least that's my hope for the new year, but then, this thread does invite participants to fantasize. :beer

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by chaz » Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:29 pm

Where is Dan Wiener?
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by bertilak » Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:51 pm

New research proves that Dollar Cost Averaging a lump sum windfall is the winning strategy 100% of the time when used with a simple matching laddered options straddle regimen. This is a mathematical certainty.
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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by jfn111 » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:23 pm

Gold will touch $800 before starting a slow upward trend.
Several major Retailers will go belly up.
Emerging Markets will get crushed.
Someone will complain they can't read a linked article without joining some site. :D

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:38 pm

They will fluctuate.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by donocash » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:45 pm

zaboomafoozarg wrote:They will fluctuate.

This is a surprise?

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by gardemanger » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:56 pm

Someone will post "Do I really need to hold bonds?" or "Do I really need to hold international equities?" and there will not be a single answer posted because it's all been discussed before and therefore nobody feels the need to further air their views.

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Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Post by obgyn65 » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:03 pm

The US dollar will weaken compared to the euro.
"The two most important days in someone's life are the day that they are born and the day they discover why." -John Maxwell

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