2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

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Taylor Larimore
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2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:40 pm

Bogleheads:

We are pleased to announce Registration for the 2015 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's learn from the 2014 Boglehead Contest:

* Our Boglehead S&P 500 guesses ranged from a high of 3146 to a low of 960. Can anyone really forecast the stock market except by luck? Of course not, as this contest is designed to demonstrate.

* The S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2014 had closing price of 2058.90. This represents a 12-month gain of +11.4% (+13.7% if dividends are included).

* The average Boglehead guess was 1958.40 -- better than professional Wall Street guesses averaging 1949.14.

Financial Dave won our 2014 Boglehead Contest with his remarkably close guess of 2057.36. He has chosen Mr. Bogle's excellent book, Don't Count On It. Dave has read both Boglehead books, including the latest edition of our Bogleheads' Guide to Investing, so I am pleased to give him, as an alternative, his choice of any book in our Collection of Investment Gems (please give him your suggestion).

The 2015 winner will receive the same prizes of a book of choice from Mr. Bogle plus one of our Boglehead books.

Rules for the 2015 Boglehead Contest:

* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2015.
* Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
* Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET January 10, 2015.
* In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
* Post your forecast below.

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!!

Taylor Larimore and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)

BOGLEHEAD CONTEST TRACKING SITE
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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cfs
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by cfs » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:41 pm

2311.95
~ DONATING MEMBER ~

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JDaniels
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by JDaniels » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:45 pm

2185.95
"The poor long for riches. The rich long for heaven. But the wise desire tranquility."

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BigFoot48
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by BigFoot48 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:46 pm

2123.58 (pi theorem)
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

kumar6851
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by kumar6851 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:46 pm

2470.00

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TheTimeLord
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:48 pm

2523.62
Run, You Clever Boy! 8723

Compound
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Compound » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:49 pm

1997.13

sgrapevine
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by sgrapevine » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:51 pm

2222.22

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Aptenodytes
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Aptenodytes » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:51 pm

2102.10

madpunster
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by madpunster » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:52 pm

2300.01

mptness
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by mptness » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:54 pm

2172.00

renter
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by renter » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:55 pm

2149.56

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Ged
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Ged » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:55 pm

2269.69

L.Washington
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by L.Washington » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:59 pm

2020.20

chw
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by chw » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:01 pm

2404 or thereabouts

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Sheepdog
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Sheepdog » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:01 pm

1933.9
People should not say everything they think. They should think about everything they say.

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theduke
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by theduke » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:02 pm

2058.90

tomd37
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by tomd37 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:06 pm

tomd37 "guesstimates" 2211.37
Tom D.

mc7
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by mc7 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:09 pm

2198.6

AQ
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by AQ » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:10 pm

2109.87

stan1
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by stan1 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:11 pm

2015.00

FlyOverState
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by FlyOverState » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:17 pm

2387.15
Thanks, | John | | FlyOverState

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baw703916
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by baw703916 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:18 pm

1731.54
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

nordsteve
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by nordsteve » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:20 pm

1873.60

david9117
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by david9117 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:20 pm

2200.11

phantom
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by phantom » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:21 pm

1933.41

Miriam2
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Miriam2 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:29 pm

2060.00 :happy

RyanC
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by RyanC » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:30 pm

2223.22

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jidina80
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by jidina80 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:31 pm

2144.44

gator15
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by gator15 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:33 pm

2209.34

jon-nyc
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by jon-nyc » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:34 pm

1968.0

wades1
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by wades1 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:35 pm

1942.42

gdm129
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by gdm129 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:36 pm

2170.52

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JamesSFO
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by JamesSFO » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:36 pm

2,223.61

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FrugalInvestor
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by FrugalInvestor » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:37 pm

2225.72
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

investor
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by investor » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:38 pm

2351.251

SunnySeattle
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by SunnySeattle » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:40 pm

2174.20

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Tortuga
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Tortuga » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:41 pm

2367.74

chaz
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by chaz » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:42 pm

2301.25 Happy New Year!
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

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parsi1
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by parsi1 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:43 pm

1979.00

the same as my last forecast.
best wishes to everyone.

jmg229
Posts: 314
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by jmg229 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:44 pm

2157.72

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Groundhog
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Groundhog » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:45 pm

2302.15

Sriracha
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Sriracha » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:45 pm

1804.63
Don't reach for yield.

FrugalFrida
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by FrugalFrida » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:46 pm

2220.00

chahn1
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by chahn1 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:48 pm

2676.55

csage
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by csage » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:49 pm

2131.41

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Mel Lindauer » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:50 pm

1313.13 (the same WAG I've used for years, based on nothing more than unlucky "13", hoping it never wins). :D
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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Sally
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Sally » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:50 pm

2119.5

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LiveSimple
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by LiveSimple » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:51 pm

2265.68

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simplesimon
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by simplesimon » Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:53 pm

1853.01

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