2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

 Posts: 175
 Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 3:24 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2015 just for fun
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
The purpose of this contest, of course, is frivolous. But I take financial prognostication seriously. Thus, I’ve exhaustively researched my prediction, drawing on all resources that don’t require me to move from my recliner. I’ve also sacrificed various small creatures. (Metaphorically, of course. I’m not a monster.) Finally, I’ve consulted an ouija board while intoning Tibetan chant and wearing a tin foil hat. I was also naked and smeared with Brer Rabbit Molasses, but I’ll keep that to myself to spare you a mental image that’ll have you screaming in the night.
2161.845
I’m very confident in my prediction.
2161.845
I’m very confident in my prediction.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2172.50
Happy new year to all!
Happy new year to all!
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2191.69
You really don't need to begin saving for retirement before you reach 60. At that point, simply save 250 percent of your income each year and you'll be able to retire comfortably at 70. Jonathan Pond
 RyeWhiskey
 Posts: 864
 Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:04 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
1724.10
This post was brought to you by Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VTWSX/VT).
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
My guess
2230.87
2230.87
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2345.67 ...somebody already took 2222.22,

 Posts: 37
 Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 7:39 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2270.97
Mike
Mike
Last edited by minesweep on Thu Jan 01, 2015 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy  John Bogle 
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper!  John Bogle
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2173.17Taylor Larimore wrote:2014 closing price 2058.90.
5.55% gain
 dodecahedron
 Posts: 5449
 Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:28 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2236.07
Whatever, in for a dime, in for a dollar as they say.
I decided to look for a nice mathematical constant (and adjust the order of magnitude appropriately to give a plausible value.) Pi and e seemed implausibly high, while phi (the golden ratio) could have worked plausibly but would have been far too depressing to contemplate, so I decided to go with the square root of 5, which is 2.23607 rounded off to six decimal places (and multiplied by 1,000 to scale it reasonably into a plausible upbeat prediction.)
The square root of 5 has many important and beautiful mathematical properties, and comes up in plane geometry in conjunction with the golden ratio, Fibonacci numbers, pentagons, pentagrams, and Penrose tilings. In the 3d world, the square root of five arises very beautifully and naturally in the volumes and surface areas of various types of dodecahedra, including the great dodecahedron, which is my avatar.
Of course, my mathematical aesthetic prediction method is entirely bogus but I could use a little fun right now.
Whatever, in for a dime, in for a dollar as they say.
I decided to look for a nice mathematical constant (and adjust the order of magnitude appropriately to give a plausible value.) Pi and e seemed implausibly high, while phi (the golden ratio) could have worked plausibly but would have been far too depressing to contemplate, so I decided to go with the square root of 5, which is 2.23607 rounded off to six decimal places (and multiplied by 1,000 to scale it reasonably into a plausible upbeat prediction.)
The square root of 5 has many important and beautiful mathematical properties, and comes up in plane geometry in conjunction with the golden ratio, Fibonacci numbers, pentagons, pentagrams, and Penrose tilings. In the 3d world, the square root of five arises very beautifully and naturally in the volumes and surface areas of various types of dodecahedra, including the great dodecahedron, which is my avatar.
Of course, my mathematical aesthetic prediction method is entirely bogus but I could use a little fun right now.
Last edited by dodecahedron on Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2326.55
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing."  Jack Bogle
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2122.23
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace." Samuel Adams
 abuss368
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 Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
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Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2134.68
Thanks Taylor.
Thanks Taylor.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

 Posts: 89
 Joined: Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:16 am
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2202.5
Thanks Taylor and Ralph for administering this contest!
Thanks Taylor and Ralph for administering this contest!

 Posts: 437
 Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:17 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
deleted
Last edited by weltschmerz on Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
...lower
1884.30
1884.30

 Posts: 591
 Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 11:02 am
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Bullish crowd this year....
1648
1648
 indexfundfan
 Posts: 3212
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 FreeAtLast
 Posts: 721
 Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:08 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2118.0
That's what I do: I drink, and I know things. Tyrion Lannister

 Posts: 635
 Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:32 pm
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2192.73
I am not a financial professional. My posts are only my opinion on the topic. You need to do your own due diligence and consult with a professional when addressing your financial questions.
Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
2360.65
Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!