Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Wow, you can say that again!
Vanguard and their "passive" balanced portfolios with a lot of changes in the past few years.
Vanguard and their "passive" balanced portfolios with a lot of changes in the past few years.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Yep. your sig line says it all and is one of the reasons i don't post very much. I try to not to pay attention: just keep saving, keep costs low, make small adjustments that are long term, and then do your best to forget about it. hopefully we'll be rewarded for the "almost" global weights, but it's not something we can control.Rick Ferri wrote:Being passive doesn't mean doing nothing. The world changes over time and your personal circumstances change as well. Being passive means making small adjustments as these changes become apparent. This is a very small shift in the big scheme of things.
Rick Ferri
Cheers.
Nadie Sabe Nada
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I don' think it's surprising that you are having trouble getting this point across. I think the problem is what you said in your blog that is the topic of this thread:Rick Ferri wrote:I wrote several times in the conversation that I'm making this move whether there's a correction in international stocks or not.
Could you explain why you said this in your blog?Rick Ferri wrote:This is what I’m waiting for. The global media hyped around a sovereign debt default or two will present long-term investors an opportunity to re-align their portfolio allocation to something more global-like and less US-like.
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
We're almost there.
Rick Ferri
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I will speculate out the wazoo here:
I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an agreement to not front-run the changes they helped to effect in the indices. Such agreements would have an expiration date which we're almost there in reaching.
I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an agreement to not front-run the changes they helped to effect in the indices. Such agreements would have an expiration date which we're almost there in reaching.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Companies like MSCI, FTSE/Russell, and S&P/Dow Jones have plenty of people working for them without needing a consultant to tweak their indexes.I will speculate out the wazoo here:
I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an agreement to not front-run the changes they helped to effect in the indices. Such agreements would have an expiration date which we're almost there in reaching.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
livesoft wrote:I will speculate out the wazoo here:
I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an agreement to not front-run the changes they helped to effect in the indices. Such agreements would have an expiration date which we're almost there in reaching.
I personally think that vanguard is tired of being front run and this is guiding a lot of decision making. They viewed an early entry into china as a way to beat the rush.
Nadie Sabe Nada
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Hi zotty,zotty wrote:livesoft wrote:I will speculate out the wazoo here:
I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an agreement to not front-run the changes they helped to effect in the indices. Such agreements would have an expiration date which we're almost there in reaching.
I personally think that vanguard is tired of being front run and this is guiding a lot of decision making. They viewed an early entry into china as a way to beat the rush.
I do not follow your post in terms of "Vanguard is tired of being front run". Would you be willing to elaborate?
Thanks!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
The amount of money in index funds can move the price of an individual security that is newly listed in the index. With transparent, pre-published indices, quants can take advantage of the situation and anticipate money flows. They "front run" the newly indexed stocks, anticipating a large demand for the shares as the big majors do the shuffle with the big money.abuss368 wrote:
Hi zotty,
I do not follow your post in terms of "Vanguard is tired of being front run". Would you be willing to elaborate?
Thanks!
I am pretty sure this is one of the reasons vanguard switched to indices which are more controlled in-house. It's a good deal for investors.
The surprise move to A-shares fits the same, general, pattern. If vanguard waited, it ran the risk of being the last big money to enter the market. Being first, with a surprise change, is good business. it avoids money flow distortions caused by the other big majors. yeah, the dice didn't roll our way, but the rationale is solid.
You can google 'CRSP Vanguard Front Running' if you wish to read what others have said on the subject.
Then again, maybe this is 100% tin foil.
Nadie Sabe Nada
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Hi zotty,zotty wrote:The amount of money in index funds can move the price of an individual security that is newly listed in the index. With transparent, pre-published indices, quants can take advantage of the situation and anticipate money flows. They "front run" the newly indexed stocks, anticipating a large demand for the shares as the big majors do the shuffle with the big money.abuss368 wrote:
Hi zotty,
I do not follow your post in terms of "Vanguard is tired of being front run". Would you be willing to elaborate?
Thanks!
I am pretty sure this is one of the reasons vanguard switched to indices which are more controlled in-house. It's a good deal for investors.
The surprise move to A-shares fits the same, general, pattern. If vanguard waited, it ran the risk of being the last big money to enter the market. Being first, with a surprise change, is good business. it avoids money flow distortions caused by the other big majors. yeah, the dice didn't roll our way, but the rationale is solid.
You can google 'CRSP Vanguard Front Running' if you wish to read what others have said on the subject.
Then again, maybe this is 100% tin foil.
Thank you for explaining in additional detail. I will search for that term on the internet as it is interesting.
Best.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I think the choice to include small and mid cap stocks into the international funds is the real sign that vanguard is tired of front running. If a small cap is added, front running would have a trivial impact on a market cap weighted index. In addition, using relatively unpopular indexs means that others are not also purchasing the stock at the same time.abuss368 wrote:Hi zotty,zotty wrote:livesoft wrote:I will speculate out the wazoo here:
I think someone was paid as a consultant in changing some of the international indexes in order to make sure they better reflected the world market weights especially of the Chinese local market. Perhaps they had to sign a non-disclosure agreement and also an agreement to not front-run the changes they helped to effect in the indices. Such agreements would have an expiration date which we're almost there in reaching.
I personally think that vanguard is tired of being front run and this is guiding a lot of decision making. They viewed an early entry into china as a way to beat the rush.
I do not follow your post in terms of "Vanguard is tired of being front run". Would you be willing to elaborate?
Thanks!
PS I can not believe I am putting a link to Barron's in my post.
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... rkets-etf/
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
This thread told me to bump it.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Are we there yet?Rick Ferri wrote:We're almost there.
Rick Ferri
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Last edited by LiveSimple on Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
Invest when you have the money, sell when you need the money, for real life expenses...
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
That was good!LiveSimple wrote:http://www.amazon.com/Apptitude-Mystic- ... une+teller
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
*bump*livesoft wrote:This thread told me to bump it.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
As of now, VTI > VEU by about 2% YTD. So waiting past 1/1/2015 has offered an superior opportunity to internationalize stocks, assuming the dividends (which are not included the VTI/VEU price) are about the same.
VTI = TSM EFT
VEU = World ex US ETF
This is a similar comparison to the plot in the OP blog, except Rick used the World EFT.
PS: But internationalizing might not look so good on risk-adjusted basis. International has proven to be more volatile in the past at least.
VTI = TSM EFT
VEU = World ex US ETF
This is a similar comparison to the plot in the OP blog, except Rick used the World EFT.
PS: But internationalizing might not look so good on risk-adjusted basis. International has proven to be more volatile in the past at least.
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Not yet. Maybe later this year. I'm in no hurry.sergeant wrote:Are we there yet?Rick Ferri wrote:We're almost there.
Rick Ferri
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Rick - And folks were calling you a market timer. Such nonsense. Keep up the good work. I always enjoy you, Will B and Larry S. Good stuff!
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Hi timmy,timmy wrote:Rick - And folks were calling you a market timer. Such nonsense. Keep up the good work. I always enjoy you, Will B and Larry S. Good stuff!
Agreed! I have learned a wealth of investing knowledge from Rick over the years. I appreciate his posts and thoughts.
Best.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Have you read the blog linked in the OP?timmy wrote:Rick - And folks were calling you a market timer. Such nonsense. Keep up the good work. I always enjoy you, Will B and Larry S. Good stuff!
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Yes, and all 9 pages (of posts). That was an easy question. Now on with the long holiday weekend!
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
The timing is not even close to the the worst blunder in the blog. Worst blunder is the contradiction of saying now is the time for a change therefore wait to make the change.timmy wrote:Rick - And folks were calling you a market timer. Such nonsense. Keep up the good work. I always enjoy you, Will B and Larry S. Good stuff!
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Ah... I see your point. I would be kinder. Maybe a little sloppy, but not a blunder.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Do you like investment advice to be a little sloppy?
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I enjoy Rick's expert guidance and advice.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
As do I (along with the price of receiving it).abuss368 wrote:I enjoy Rick's expert guidance and advice.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Looks like his bet did (or could have) paid off, in that it involved waiting to some point in 2015 when international was cheaper.walletless wrote:From his blog post: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investmen ... ri+Blog%29
Rick Ferri will be looking to increase his international allocation for the 2nd half of the decade.
FTSE Ex US (VEU) is ~4% cheaper relative to the US total stock market (VTI) than it was when he published that blog.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I still feel like a troll b/c i like rick a lot.tadamsmar wrote:
FTSE Ex US (VEU) is ~4% cheaper relative to the US total stock market (VTI) than it was when he published that blog.
How does dividend yield factor in? you looking at total return?
Nadie Sabe Nada
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Not total return, I just looked at prices. I think it might be close enough to a wash.zotty wrote:I still feel like a troll b/c i like rick a lot.tadamsmar wrote:
FTSE Ex US (VEU) is ~4% cheaper relative to the US total stock market (VTI) than it was when he published that blog.
How does dividend yield factor in? you looking at total return?
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Outcome and Strategy
FTSE Ex US (VEU) is ~4% cheaper relative to the US total stock market (VTI) than it was when he published that blog.
Taylor
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Any update on the change in strategy?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Alas, the OP link is dead, it did not survive the year, the events of which it was predicting, crystal balls are fragile things. But, fear not, be not deprived, the same content is to be found here:walletless wrote:From his blog post: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investmen ... ri+Blog%29
Rick Ferri will be looking to increase his international allocation for the 2nd half of the decade.
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... nopaging=1
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I'm curious as well.abuss368 wrote:Any update on the change in strategy?
Another question I have for Rick concerns the Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (VNQI).
In the past, Rick had noted that he liked the diversification the fund could provide, but he thought the associated costs were not worth the benefit.
However, it seems that in about 4 months Vanguard will announce that the expense ratio for the ETF share class has dropped to 0.18%.
It's true that there is some concern about tax inefficiency in holding VNQI in either taxable or tax-advantaged accounts. Still, the direct costs have come down remarkably in 5 years, with the initial 0.35% ER slashed to 0.18%.
It would also seem, based on valuations, that VNQI has a higher expected return than VNQ.
VNQI (ER soon to be reported = 0.18%): Price/Cash Flow = 10.69
VNQ (ER = 0.12%): Price/Cash Flow = 13.92
So I wonder, will Rick be taking a closer look at the Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF?
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Hi iceport,iceport wrote:I'm curious as well.abuss368 wrote:Any update on the change in strategy?
Another question I have for Rick concerns the Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (VNQI).
In the past, Rick had noted that he liked the diversification the fund could provide, but he thought the associated costs were not worth the benefit.
However, it seems that in about 4 months Vanguard will announce that the expense ratio for the ETF share class has dropped to 0.18%.
It's true that there is some concern about tax inefficiency in holding VNQI in either taxable or tax-advantaged accounts. Still, the direct costs have come down remarkably in 5 years, with the initial 0.35% ER slashed to 0.18%.
It would also seem, based on valuations, that VNQI has a higher expected return than VNQ.
VNQI (ER soon to be reported = 0.18%): Price/Cash Flow = 10.69
VNQ (ER = 0.12%): Price/Cash Flow = 13.92
So I wonder, will Rick be taking a closer look at the Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF?
I added the International REIT fund many years ago and it appears to add additional diversification. Many times the fund "zings" when U.S. REITs "zangs". The cost has decreased over the years.
Did you by chance happen to read the expect expense ratio for the investor and admiral shares?
Best.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Only the update on the change in his blogging strategy: he apparently deleted his blog post on the strategy. If you look at his blog, there are plenty of entries before and after that one. That particular one is gone.abuss368 wrote:Any update on the change in strategy?
Have you ever seen anyone post a strategy like that and then give a series of serious updates until the strategy has played out one way or the other? I have not. The most likely outcome is that the whole thing dies with a whimper, the would-be strategist just hopes we forget about it.
Last edited by tadamsmar on Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Hi abuss368,abuss368 wrote:Hi iceport,
I added the International REIT fund many years ago and it appears to add additional diversification. Many times the fund "zings" when U.S. REITs "zangs". The cost has decreased over the years.
Did you by chance happen to read the expect expense ratio for the investor and admiral shares?
Yes, the admiral shares ER will match the ETF ER (0.18%), and the ER for the investor shares will improve only very slightly to 0.36%. These are published in the fine print at the bottom of Page 4 of the October 2015 Annual Report. If the pattern holds, these figures will be reported as the official fund expense ratios in the February 2016 prospectus.
It will be interesting to see if there are any changes to the purchase and redemption fees of the mutual funds. I'd love to ditch the ETF share class if and when those fees are dropped.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
In his defense, he was right, it's about +6% outperformance in domestics?tadamsmar wrote:Only the update on the change in his blogging strategy: he apparently deleted his blog post on the strategy. If you look at his blog, there are plenty of entries before and after that one. That particular one is gone.abuss368 wrote:Any update on the change in strategy?
Have you ever seen anyone post a strategy like that and then give a series of serious updates until the strategy has played out one way or the other? I have not. The most likely outcome is that the whole thing dies with a whimper, the would-be strategist just hopes we forget about it.
Of course, the would-be dip buyers dilemma is in the timing. 6 is better than 4, but 25 is better than 6.
Not my cup of tea. I just kept accumulating international equities to maintain portfolio balance and consider myself fortunate. years of accumulating bonds to balance w/ stocks got long in the tooth. accumulating stocks at all time highs isn't all that pleasant either.
Nadie Sabe Nada
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
When I mentioned that earlier, did you see Taylor's comment?:zotty wrote: In his defense, he was right, it's about +6% outperformance in domestics?
viewtopic.php?p=2707395#p2707395
PS: There is one Chinese billionaire who can quote Carl Sagan when asked how much he lost last year on China stocks, "billions and billions".
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
I going to take his advice and put 13K in total international, our 2016 Roth contribution. Well, sort of. I was already neutral back when Rick blogged those immortal words about how he now believed that international as at least and good as domestic so he was going to act on his current beliefs later. Are there any market timers that understand the concept of time, any who can manage to even compose a coherent thought about time?
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Nothing happened in 2015 to convince me that it's the wrong idea and I'm very comfortable with Vanguard increasing from 30 to 40% for my Target Date fund, which I hold in my IRA.
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Bogleheads,
We increased our allocation to international from 30% to 40% before both Rick Ferri and the change in Vanguard's Target and Life Strategy funds.
Best.
We increased our allocation to international from 30% to 40% before both Rick Ferri and the change in Vanguard's Target and Life Strategy funds.
Best.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
FYI - I moved some posts asking about Rick Ferri's blog into here: Rick Ferri's Blog
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
If I recall, and honestly I am not sure I recall correctly without reading all 444 posts of this thread, which I'm not going to do, or the original blog entry, which is inaccessible at the moment, but I think Rick was waiting for some driver of capitulation, where investors would throw in the towel--perhaps a sovereign default. I used the further decline in oil prices, the run-up of the US dollar, and the bursting (?) of the Chinese stock market bubble (?) as an excuse to add to my international position between August and December. I'm a bit over 50% now with a target international allocation of 40%. Hopefully it won't get back to 40% without rebalancing anytime soon, but after the past 17 years of investing, I'm always waiting for the second anvil to fall.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
There's always the wayback machine:saltycaper wrote:If I recall, and honestly I am not sure I recall correctly without reading all 444 posts of this thread, which I'm not going to do, or the original blog entry, which is inaccessible at the moment, but I think Rick was waiting for some driver of capitulation, where investors would throw in the towel--perhaps a sovereign default.
My Expected Investment Changes in 2015
I believe the tailspin in commodity prices lays the foundation for a fresh round of emerging country defaults. It will hit oil exporting countries the hardest such as Russia, Venezuela and several Middle East countries whose governments are already unstable. If these defaults do occur, there will be temporary contagion in all emerging markets similar to the Russian default in 1998.
This is what I’m waiting for. The global media hyped around a sovereign debt default or two will present long-term investors an opportunity to re-align their portfolio allocation to something more global-like and less US-like. This isn’t to say I’m bearish on the US. This shift just puts my portfolio closer to a global market allocation, which is where I want it to be during the second half of this decade.
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Please accept my apologies. We are working on RickFerri.com.
In the mean time, all of my blogs are available on Forbes.com. Here is the link:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/
The article on my decision to increase international equity exposure can be found here:
My Expected Investment Changes In 2015
I did not make the change to more international exposure in my personal portfolio in 2015. It will probably happen sometime this year.
Thank you!
Rick Ferri
In the mean time, all of my blogs are available on Forbes.com. Here is the link:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/
The article on my decision to increase international equity exposure can be found here:
My Expected Investment Changes In 2015
I did not make the change to more international exposure in my personal portfolio in 2015. It will probably happen sometime this year.
Thank you!
Rick Ferri
Last edited by Rick Ferri on Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Thank you.
Thanks to our shipmate Rick for the links and thanks for all the updates.
Wishing the Portfolio Solutions Team a productive 2016
Thanks to our shipmate Rick for the links and thanks for all the updates.
Wishing the Portfolio Solutions Team a productive 2016
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~
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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Thanks Rick!Rick Ferri wrote:Please accept my apologies. We are working on RickFerri.com.
In the mean time, all of my blogs are available on Forbes.com. Here is the link:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/
The article on my decision to increase international equity exposure can be found here:
My Expected Investment Changes In 2015
I did not make the change to more international exposure in my personal portfolio in 2015. It will probably happen sometime this year.
Thank you!
Rick Ferri
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Thanks Rick. I have added the link OP.Rick Ferri wrote:Please accept my apologies. We are working on RickFerri.com.
...
The article on my decision to increase international equity exposure can be found here:
My Expected Investment Changes In 2015
...
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)