Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

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Norbert Schlenker
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Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Norbert Schlenker » Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:29 pm

Once again, I'm traveling over year end so this will take a bit of time to get organized, but here are the rules for the 2015 contest. Not much has changed since the 2014 contest, but I'm going to relax the criteria a little. So instead of exactly two long and two short positions, you can have anywhere between 0 and 3 of each. Because the first trading day of the year is a Friday, and it's likely to be dead trading-wise, and closing prices are potentially gameable, I'm moving the start point to next Tuesday, January 6.

Complete set of rules for 2015
  • Pick a fancy name for your hedge fund. Show some creativity. A panel of esteemed judges will choose the best.
  • Before 9 am EST on 6 Jan 2015, pick up to three stocks to go long and up to three to short. Equal dollar amounts are placed on each position.
  • Stock only. No bonds, no options, no funds.
  • No trades during the year, except that you can elect at any time during normal exchange business hours to "freeze" a price for any individual position at that day's closing price, i.e. liquidate that one position. Other than that, you're stuck with what you choose for the year.
  • The universe from which to choose is the Russell 3000.
  • Starting prices are the 5 Jan 2015 close, ending prices will be the 31 Dec 2015 close. (Adjustments may be made to either in case of crazy spreads, at my sole discretion.)
  • Winner of the name contest deemed to purchase long positions at 1% discount and sell short positions at 1% premium!
  • Dividends won't count because ...
  • It's all automated to make it easy on myself.
My holiday schedule may result in a delay to the automation of posting of results but rest assured that I will get to it eventually.

Post your picks in this thread before 9 am EST next Tuesday. If you pick ineligible shares and it's not caught before the deadline, the portfolio is disqualified. Your picks must be in this list: Russell 3000 Index membership list - 2014 constituents.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.

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linenfort
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by linenfort » Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:25 pm

Post your picks in this thread before 9 am EST next Tuesday.
Darn, too soon for Shake Shack.
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

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LadyGeek
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:28 pm

Nortbert Schlenker also has a contest for members of our sister Canadian site: Financial Wisdom Forum - A 2015 hedge fund contest
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

FinancialDave
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:29 pm

So, just to be clear, we can have 1-6 stocks in our account (no more than 3 long or short) - or maybe just put it all in cash (0 stocks) -- I could have done better with that option this year.
:happy
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

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LadyGeek
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:34 pm

I asked for clarification in the Financial Wisdom Forum - A 2015 hedge fund contest thread.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

grok87
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by grok87 » Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:03 pm

sounds good
Keep calm and Boglehead on. KCBO.

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Norbert Schlenker
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Norbert Schlenker » Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:15 pm

0-6 altogether. Zero is all cash and immutable for the year.
Nothing can protect people who want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.

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VictoriaF
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by VictoriaF » Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:33 pm

Fund name: Hedgefog and Hoax (HAH)
Long:
BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway, Inc
EROS - Eros Intl, Plc
EFX - Equifax, Inc

Short:
NSTG - Nanostring Tech, Inc
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc
ODP - Office Depot, Inc

Victoria

[EDIT]
- Renamed the fund in response to linenfort's critique.
- The new and improved fund is in honor of Isaiah Berlin.
Last edited by VictoriaF on Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:30 am, edited 5 times in total.
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

Hector
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Hector » Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:44 pm

Fund Name: Hector's Growth Fund

Long
GILD - Gilead Sciences, Inc
ILMN - Illumina, Inc.
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

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cfs
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Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:22 am
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by cfs » Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:51 pm

Fund name: Lowest Rated
Long
CSCO - Cisco Systems Inc
HD - Home Depot Inc
FB - Facebook Inc

Short
TWTR - Twitter Inc
WMT - Walmart Stores Inc
IBM - International Business Machines
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

Mountain Man
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:34 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mountain Man » Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:29 pm

Fund Name: Mountain Hedge Capital


Ticker-company name

Long:

RE-Everest RE Group LTD
LRN-K12 Group
VOLC-Volcano Group

Short:

BBOX-Black Box Corp
LZB-La Z Boy
HLF- Herbalife

TradingPlaces
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by TradingPlaces » Tue Dec 30, 2014 10:42 pm

I am sorry to say but this is a contest that someone can win, guaranteed.

All you need is something in the rough order of 3000 * 2999 * 2998 * 2997 * 2996 * 2995 / 6! boglehead accounts, and you are set.

Statistically, you probably need even less. Something like 3000 * 3000 accounts might be enough, as all you have to do is pick the winner of all stocks, and the loser, and noone else is likely to do that.

This is what happens when you play with paper money.

Edit: with the clarification, you only need 3000 * 3000 accounts, as picking the winner and the loser does the job.

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oldzey
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by oldzey » Tue Dec 30, 2014 10:57 pm

Fund Name: Oldzey's Osage Oranges

Long:
BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway B
DIS - Walt Disney Company
FB - Facebook Inc.

Short:
AFSI - Amtrust Financial Systems
DDD - 3D Systems
HLF - Herbalife Ltd.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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linenfort
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by linenfort » Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:03 am

Sieve Holdings. “If we were in the Russell 3000, you’d be shorting us.”

IG ;IGI Labs
VDSI ;Vasco Data Security
SWKS ;Skyworks

Short:
SEAS ;SeaWorld
GCI ;Gannett
STML ;Stemline Therapeutics
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

Pizzasteve510
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Pizzasteve510 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:29 am

MONTAGE Index Liberty Fund <MILF>
"Because whenever you need to show time passing while the hero prepares to seek revenge you need a montage...and these stocks picks are going to use their ACTING to put some hurt on those active investing hating, fee scrimping Boglehead Terrorists...and charge a tasty fee for the "service""
- Team America World Police (your very active fund management)

Long
Qualcomm QCOM
Cree CREE
Amazon AMZN

Short
Shlumberger SLB (just because I can)
Monster Energy Drinks MNST (formerly Hansen Natural)
Key Bank KEY

Analysts are saying
- Keep your eye on MILF's assets, there is a lot going on there
- MIFL expenses tend to be a bit high...but they get a lot done for what they spend, plus the dividends are outstanding
- MILF followers tend to be a bit aggressive in their approach...they are comfortable taking risks. While these risky plays rarely pay off, due to strong market forces working against them, when they do pay, whoa nellie!
Last edited by Pizzasteve510 on Thu Jan 01, 2015 3:09 pm, edited 6 times in total.

JLJL
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by JLJL » Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:35 am

Fund Name: Soup d'Alphabet
"Because we used the alphabet to pick our positions."

We took the first fund in, Been Counter, and went long on the subsequent company listed and short on the previous company listed.
VictoriaF wrote:Fund name: Been Counter
Long:
BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway, Inc
EROS - Eros Intl, Plc
EFX - Equifax, Inc

Short:
NSTG - Nanostring Tech, Inc
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc
ODP - Office Depot, Inc

Victoria
Long:
BHLB - Berkshire Hills Bancorp (America's Most Exciting Bank, lest there be any confusion)
ESBF - ESB Financial Corp
EQIX - Equinix Inc

Short:
NANO - Nanometrics, Inc
CTT - Catchmark Timber Trust
OCN - Ocwen Financial Corp


My thanks to Victoria for the legwork. :wink:

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linenfort
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by linenfort » Wed Dec 31, 2014 8:06 am

I had been expecting a clever name from VictoriaF, and it took me a while to realize it's the ticker initials. :happy
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

BigJohn
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by BigJohn » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:05 am

Fund Name: ACE in the Hole

Long:
Apache (APA)
Chevron (CVX)
ExxonMobil (XOM)

Short:
Facebook (FB)
LinkedIn (LNKD)
Twitter (TWTR)

MarginalCost
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Jul 02, 2013 9:42 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by MarginalCost » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:20 am

Fund Name: "Age+10 in Expense Ratio"

Long
NFLX - Netflix


Short
AMZN - Amazon
BKS - Barnes & Noble

jdb
Posts: 1485
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:21 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by jdb » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:24 am

Muskellunge Fund.
This eponymous fund believes in concentrated bets following Elon Musk, so only two long positions in Tesla Motors (TSLA) and Solar City (SCTY). Both may actually be short candidates next six months but since only score keeping at year end the manager of this fund believes both will have upward ride last quarter, especially TSLA once Model X into production. And if SpaceX ever goes public this fund will be there. Happy New Year everyone.

BackOfTheNet
Posts: 184
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:24 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by BackOfTheNet » Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:01 pm

Fund name: People hate flying.

Long:
--------
GOOGL

Short:
---------
LUV
HA
DAL

ducksauce9
Posts: 24
Joined: Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:12 am

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ducksauce9 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:50 pm

Fund name: Cock of the Random Walk Capital Management.

Long:
AAPL - Apple
RIGL - Rigel Pharmaceuticals
GT - Goodyear Tire & Rubber

Short:
GOOGL - Google
TWTR - Twitter
CHK - Chesapeake Energy

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stickman731
Posts: 271
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:42 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by stickman731 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:34 pm

Sticky Wonder Fund

SHORT
ASH - Ashland Inc.
IBM - International Business Machine Corporation
ECL - Ecolab Inc.

LONG
BAC - Bank of America Corporation
INVN - InvenSense Inc.
BTU - Peabody Energy Corporation

Grt2bOutdoors
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Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
Location: New York

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:17 pm

Fund Name: I'm Tawking, not Yellen Fund

Long: BAC - Bank of America Corporation
C - Citigroup
XOM - ExxonMobil

Short: TWTR - Twitter
IBM - International Business Machines
SODA - SodaStream International, Ltd.
Last edited by Grt2bOutdoors on Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

PugetSoundguy
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by PugetSoundguy » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:31 pm

Hedge fund name: Two-Twenty Strategic Happiness Fund
"We always get ours"

Long:
Boeing (BA)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Sears (SHLD)

Short:
Dow Chemical (DOW)
Sprint (S)
United States Gypsum (USG)

Fund strategy: Our esteemed fund manager PugetSoundguy has carefully evaluated thousands of public companies and then selected the three he feels are poised for big gains (Dow Chemical, Sprint, and U.S. Gypsum). But our manager, while not brilliant, is smart enough to know that he is almost never right so the Fund has shorted those three stocks. He also picked three losers (Boeing, Microsoft, and Sears), and the Fund has consequently taken a long position in those stocks. No matter what happens, of course, we will take two percent from you, and we will be even more happy to take twenty percent of your gains if there are any. All losses are on you, naturally. As our founder frequently remarked, "Thank you for taking all the risk."

"Where are the customers' yachts, you ask? Why, maybe they just haven't been delivered yet."

inbox788
Posts: 5661
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:24 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by inbox788 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:36 pm

Hedge Fund Name: Go for Broke Fund

Long:
BBOX - Black Box
PHIIK - PHI Inc
BHE - Benchmark Electronics

Short:
AMZN - Amazon
NFLX - Netflix
TSLA - Tesla

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allroads
Posts: 110
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:08 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by allroads » Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:42 pm

Fading Crazy Cramer Fund
(with the help of Jim Cramer's 12-22 & 12-23-14 stock picks, we fade him and his followers to show success in bucking the trend)


Long:
Arlington Asset Investmen (AI)
Range Resources (RRC)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)

Short:
Honeywell (HON)
Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB)
Restoration Hardware (RH)
"All Roads Lead to Rome." "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world" - Einstein

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jidina80
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by jidina80 » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:20 pm

Fund Name: Smokin' Genetics

Long:
Monsanto - MON
Amgen Inc - AMGN
Gilead Sciences - GILD

Short:
Loews Corp - L
Altria Group - MO
Reynolds American - RAI

Park
Posts: 563
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 4:56 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Park » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:22 am

EMH Hedge Fund

Long
AHC
OVTI
SANM

Short
FHCO
FNGN
EPM

FinanceStudent
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 2:42 pm
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by FinanceStudent » Thu Jan 01, 2015 3:57 am

Financial Acumen Fund

Long:
American International Group - AIG
Apple - AAPL
Citigroup - C

Short:
Abercrombie & Fitch - ANF
Amazon - AMZN
Sears Holdings - SHLD

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fredflinstone
Posts: 2110
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2010 7:35 am
Location: Bedrock

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by fredflinstone » Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:09 am

Bedrock Fund

Long:
Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY
Mattress Firm Holding Corp MFRM
Select Comfort SCSS

Short:
Gibraltar Industries Inc ROCK
Rosetta Stone Inc RST
Granite Construction Inc. GVA

"We believe demand for firm mattresses will be firm," said BedRock Fund manager Fred Flinstone in a statement released via PR Newswire. "Business prospects for rock companies, however, look rocky."

BoringIsBeautiful
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon May 27, 2013 8:38 am

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by BoringIsBeautiful » Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:48 am

Buy and Hold Your Breath

Long:
Capstone Turbine Corporation - CPST
Emergent BioSolutions - EBS
Clean Harbors - CLH

Short:
Barnes and Noble - BKS
Equity Residential - EQR
Care.com - CRCM

nordsteve
Posts: 648
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:23 am

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by nordsteve » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:24 pm

Alexandra Henry Alpha Capture XIV

Long

LINE - Linn Energy
NKA - Niska Gas Storage
MCEP - Mid Continent Energy Partners

Short

CSLT - Castlight Health
GPRO - GoPro
IMDZ - Immune Design

The fund seeks to take advantage of changing trends in global equities by investing in companies with strong prospects for generating market leading alpha, using a proprietary trading system implemented in a technology you wouldn't understand.

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camper
Posts: 852
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:51 pm
Location: My side of the mountain

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by camper » Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:24 pm

Pinhead & Associates

Long:
ZGNX
RGR
BTU

Short:
XNPT
HA
ICPT

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Flobes
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:40 am

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Flobes » Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:41 pm

People's Pecuniary Privet

Long:
AMZ Amazon
WFM Whole Foods
WGO Winnebago

Short:
FHCO Female Health
HRL Hormel
WMT Walmart

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LadyGeek
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Posts: 48643
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Contact:

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jan 01, 2015 2:51 pm

Name: Ladies First

Long:
magicJack VocalTec Ltd. (CALL)
NanoString Technologies, Inc. (NSTG)
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

Short:
Cash America International, Inc. (CSH)
Nutrisystem, Inc. (NTRI)
Mitcham Industries Inc. (MIND)
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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LadyGeek
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Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jan 01, 2015 3:04 pm

Please double-check your entries, as Norbert Schlenker has explicitly stated to use the Membership list (PDF) appearing here: Russell 3000® Index

The PDF is dated 6/27/2014, which is the formal date of the index reconstitution. See this FAQ.

This is important because there were Q3 and Q4 Index IPO additions which do not appear in the 6/27/2014 list.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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k66
Posts: 496
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:36 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by k66 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 3:45 pm

"Mad Stacks o' Cash - Yo!" is quietly being dismembered at the end of the 2014 season in anticipation of a new, better fund: "Trixter". Although MSoCY had only the best of intentions through out its short life, ultimately it succumbed to the one thing that no fund should ever do, and that is to lose money. In the words of former fund manager Whitey Walters, "Mad Stacks was so pathetic, I don't even want to remember it's name".

Starting the new year with a new fund will be the sharply entertaining Morgan Trixter and his cutting-edge aptly-named fund "Trixter" which will seek to hunt down truly reprehensible stocks and short-cutting them out of existence while at the same time adhering to the guiding practice of maintaining superior long positions. Here's blood in your eye!

Name: Trixter

Longs:
HAR (Harmon International)
CODE (Spansion Inc)

Shorts:
DRC (Dresser-Rand)
PGR (Progressive Corp)
LOSER of the Boglehead Contest 2015 | lang may yer lum reek

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4nursebee
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by 4nursebee » Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:03 pm

Fund name:
Comme d'habitude

Long: TSLA (210.09)
NVAX (5.86)
ZOES (29.03)
I edited to add a third. My link below did not list the 3rd choice. When at home I could make the OP link work and the third choice is available, 2nd edit to add 1/5 closing price for my records

No shorts.

The links do not show the 3000 stocks available to choose from. This does:
http://www.marketvolume.com/indexes_exc ... UA&row=250
Last edited by 4nursebee on Thu Jan 08, 2015 3:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
4nursebee

renter
Posts: 332
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:14 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by renter » Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:14 pm

Fund name: Pocket Liner (Cayman) Ltd.

Short
AVNR Avanir Pharmaceuticals, CLASS A
ESPR Esperion Therapeutic
FB Facebook

Long
WMB WILLIAMS COMPANIES
AVP Avon Products
MAT Mattell

A sincere thank you for your investment. Due to confidentiality rules, our fund expenses (and anything else about what we do) are a closely guarded trade secret.
Last edited by renter on Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:24 am, edited 4 times in total.

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zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 1967
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:21 pm

Name: To Thine Own Self Be Contrarian

Long:

SAM
PM
ATK

Short:

AAPL
JPM
M

jmg229
Posts: 320
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:21 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by jmg229 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:58 pm

Bravo PP Holdings

Long
TSLA
AMZN
GLW

Short
DG
ZNGA
PEIX

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gatorman
Posts: 2493
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:35 am
Location: The Swamp

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by gatorman » Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:26 pm

Name: Quantitative Unified Asset Control Kondratieffians (QUACK)

Long:
PTRY- The Pantry, Inc.
ALK- Alaska Air Group, Inc.
UEIC- Universal Electronics
Short:
SD- Sandridge Energy
ACI- Arch Coal Inc.
AKS -AK Steel Holdings
Last edited by gatorman on Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

Savvy
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 3:09 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Savvy » Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:31 pm

Name: What the Hedge?

Long:
Google GOOGL
Abercrombie and Fitch ANF
Bank of America BAC

Short:
Best Buy BBY
Amazon AMZN
Hewlett-Packard HPQ

hrc84
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:46 am

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by hrc84 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:33 pm

Name: Diversification is Overrated

Long:
XOF
BBL
RIO

Short:
GLD
RFIL
HLF

tj
Posts: 2207
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 12:10 am

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by tj » Thu Jan 01, 2015 10:58 pm

Name: Fizz Biz

Long:
KO
DPS
PEP

User avatar
tludwig23
Posts: 1664
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:27 pm
Location: 48deg46"23"N 122deg28'21"W

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by tludwig23 » Thu Jan 01, 2015 11:21 pm

Fund of Unconventional Contrarian Knowledge

LONG

BKS
SHLD
HLF


SHORT

BRK.B
AAPL
TSLA
That's what I do: I drink, and I know things. --Tyrion Lannister

Randolph
Posts: 18
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2009 6:07 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Randolph » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:20 am

Baysian Stochastic Fund from Fortuitous Financial
"Take a chance on Chance" (TM)

Long:
CBM
INFN
XYL

Short:
GEF
OMER
TISI

jaj2276
Posts: 356
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:13 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by jaj2276 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:12 pm

Taking a page out of the real hedge fund industry, I'm closing last year's under performing fund and starting a new fund!

Name: Show Me Your Money!

Longs:
SAAS
I
AMSWA

Shorts:
MSO
ROVI
DEL

inbox788
Posts: 5661
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:24 pm

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by inbox788 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:14 pm

tludwig23 wrote:Fund of Unconventional Contrarian Knowledge

LONG

BKS
SHLD
HLF


SHORT

BRK.B
AAPL
TSLA
Glad we agree on TSLA :happy

I've seen BKS ,SHLD and HLF on most likely to go bankrupt lists, so clearly contrarian!

My strategy to this madness is somewhat conventional, which is to listen to the "experts". My short picks are listening to the years of "this stock is overvalued" and 2015 will be the year when all the star align and my 3 choices will suddenly be fairly valued at the end of the year. On the long side, I chose 3 out of 6 recommended undervalued small cap stocks. Of course my 3 choices (BBOX, PHIIK, BHE) will far outperform the 3 others (NG, EIG, HMN) I did not choose.

http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-ide ... ap-stocks/

jdb wrote:Muskellunge Fund.
This eponymous fund believes in concentrated bets following Elon Musk, so only two long positions in Tesla Motors (TSLA) and Solar City (SCTY). Both may actually be short candidates next six months but since only score keeping at year end the manager of this fund believes both will have upward ride last quarter, especially TSLA once Model X into production. And if SpaceX ever goes public this fund will be there. Happy New Year everyone.
So if you might expect TSLA to fall in first 6 months and and more than make up difference in the last half; alternatively to taking a long position, you could go short and cash out half way through the year.

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