BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

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Taylor Larimore
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BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:50 pm

Bogleheads:

On January 1st the S&P 500 Index was 1848.36. At the end of November the Index was 2067.56 for a 11 month gain of +11.86% (not counting dividends).

These are our current Contest Leaders and their January guesses.

1 senhati 2053.50
2 RyanC 2053.52
3 camper 2053.31
4 bogleblitz 2053.00
5 nhdean 2054.00
6 Flobes 2054.18
7 EternalOptimist 2052.00
8 jf89 2054.98
9 sschullo 2055.00
10 JerryK 2051.60

2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

REGISTRATION FOR THE 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST (AND PRIZES) WILL BE DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN JANUARY ON THIS FORUM.

Best wishes.
Ralph Arvesen and Taylor Larimore
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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cfs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cfs » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:55 pm

Thanks for the update.

A couple of good weeks away from my projection:
60
cfs
2076.44
23.00
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EternalOptimist
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by EternalOptimist » Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:03 pm

Wow, optimism really does work :D
"When nothing goes right....go left"

FinancialDave
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:16 pm

Wow, I'm into the top ten --- looking for sideways from now until the end of the year!

:sharebeer
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

peppers
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by peppers » Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:59 pm

"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra :wink:
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

FinancialDave
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- Dec 9th

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:33 pm

I see 1st place tomorrow, then it's over!

:happy
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

gkaplan
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by gkaplan » Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:42 pm

I'm in 479th place but moving up quickly.
Gordon

Mick
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Mick » Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:09 pm

peppers wrote:"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra :wink:
Yep, been in first place a few times during the day as it bounced around 1990. Hope I'm not in the running any more!

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camper
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by camper » Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:39 pm

From #3 to #89 in 7 trading days. OUCH.

david9117
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by david9117 » Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:32 pm

Just checked... I am at #10 today. Yahooooooooo

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Sbashore
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Sbashore » Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:05 pm

Thanks Taylor. I'm now low and hoping that I won't win. :happy
Steve | Semper Fi

likegarden
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by likegarden » Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:47 pm

The situation has changed again. There I am #4, ha.

columbia
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by columbia » Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:06 pm

I've dropped from 2nd to 210th in one week.
The market is fickle.

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stratton
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by stratton » Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:11 pm

Oops. I'm in a four way tie for 4th.

Time to start a newsletter!

Paul
...and then Buffy staked Edward. The end.

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White Coat Investor
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by White Coat Investor » Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:03 am

6 more points down and I'm in like sin!
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

Novine
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Novine » Tue Dec 23, 2014 1:46 pm

If I can trust my memory, I thought my guess was optimistic. Absent a year-end crash, I should have been more optimistic.

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ray.james
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by ray.james » Tue Dec 23, 2014 1:50 pm

While I never won any year, I came up short almost every year. I must be a very pessimistic person :D
Good thing that I am boglehead.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

Drewman
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Drewman » Tue Dec 23, 2014 7:57 pm

Just wanted to say what an honor and pleasure to close the day out in the lead. Just a few trading days left. Merry Christmas.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew

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TheTimeLord
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:03 pm

Drewman wrote:Just wanted to say what an honor and pleasure to close the day out in the lead. Just a few trading days left. Merry Christmas.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew
Congrats. I feel like at 2146, I still have a shot but will be a wee bit high.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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cfs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cfs » Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:13 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Drewman wrote:Just wanted to say what an honor and pleasure to close the day out in the lead. Just a few trading days left. Merry Christmas.
http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/
-Andrew
Congrats. I feel like at 2146, I still have a shot but will be a wee bit high.
If shipmate TL's number is 2146 then I want him to be in the top ten.
5 - cfs - 2076.44 - 5.73
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

gkaplan
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by gkaplan » Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:10 pm

I have my number picked for next year.
Gordon

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cheese_breath
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cheese_breath » Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:19 pm

FinancialDave wrote:Wow, I'm into the top ten --- looking for sideways from now until the end of the year!

:sharebeer
I don't want to be in the top 10 because that would mean a significant drop in the S&P.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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teacher
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by teacher » Wed Dec 24, 2014 10:12 am

I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line. :wink:

goblue100
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by goblue100 » Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:30 am

teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line. :wink:
You're number one now, and I'm number 2. I think we used the same formula, but you rounded down and I didn't, so I'm behind by .24. Come on S&P 2089! :sharebeer
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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cfs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cfs » Wed Dec 24, 2014 2:03 pm

teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line. :wink:
Well, shipmate Teacher, it may go down, it may go up, that's the fun part, but, what about all those window dressers waiting for the last week of the year to pump up their portfolios with the 2014 winners?
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

minesweep
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by minesweep » Wed Dec 24, 2014 2:21 pm

cfs wrote:
teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line. :wink:
Well, shipmate Teacher, it may go down, it may go up, that's the fun part, but, what about all those window dressers waiting for the last week of the year to pump up their portfolios with the 2014 winners?
Maybe the window dressers already did their buying. :happy

MIke

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cfs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cfs » Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:27 pm

minesweep wrote:
cfs wrote:
teacher wrote:I am in third place at the moment, but I think that will not hold by the end of this month. I think there will be a dip before New Years and others will cut in line. :wink:
Well, shipmate Teacher, it may go down, it may go up, that's the fun part, but, what about all those window dressers waiting for the last week of the year to pump up their portfolios with the 2014 winners?
Maybe the window dressers already did their buying. :happy

MIke
Good point by shipmate Mike, maybe the window dressers are on a plane heading home for a long Christmas break, let's break even for the next couple of days and call it an awesome market year. Merry Christmas to all.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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teacher
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by teacher » Wed Dec 24, 2014 8:02 pm

GoBlue wrote:
You're number one now, and I'm number 2. I think we used the same formula, but you rounded down and I didn't, so I'm behind by .24. Come on S&P 2089! :sharebeer
Formula? You have to be kidding. No rhyme or reason, just a wishful hunch. I see I have slipped already.

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Random Musings
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Random Musings » Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:31 pm

Firmly at the bottom, but will most likely edge out Mel :happy

However, although I made a bearish call for the year, my portfolio stayed the course.

Playing games are fun, playing with your portfolio is dangerous.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

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TheTimeLord
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:39 pm

I already have my number for next year and I bet I will be one lonely cowpoke with this prediction.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

Cwise
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Cwise » Fri Dec 26, 2014 12:35 am

My dad (RIP 2013) always said the market goes up and the market goes down. But it mostly goes up. Been staying the course since 1995. I'm glad to have the top spot even if it's just for a day.

senhati
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by senhati » Fri Dec 26, 2014 12:45 am

I don't think I am at #1 anymore :( :(

:sharebeer

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:47 am

Random Musings wrote:Firmly at the bottom, but will most likely edge out Mel :happy

However, although I made a bearish call for the year, my portfolio stayed the course.

Playing games are fun, playing with your portfolio is dangerous.

RM
I've picked 1313.13 for years now (for no reason except the unlucky number sequence), and always hope that I end up at the bottom.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by goblue100 » Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:52 am

teacher wrote: Formula? You have to be kidding. No rhyme or reason, just a wishful hunch. I see I have slipped already.

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Postby teacher » Wed Jan 01, 2014 2:19 pm
2088

Another 13% rise in in our portfolio this year would be lovely.
This is what I meant by formula. :happy We both came up with 13% as our number for the year.

I'm number 1 for the weekend. I'm sure that will change by New Years Eve, but am pleased to have been in the running at all. All luck of course, except for foreseeing $1.90 gas and that North Korea would hack Sony. Those things I knew were coming. :mrgreen:
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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cfs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cfs » Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:54 pm

Well, let me enjoy these few seconds

1
cfs
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0.56

In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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matjen
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by matjen » Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:17 pm

cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds

1
cfs
2076.44
0.56

In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? :D Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it. :D
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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cfs
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cfs » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:08 pm

matjen wrote:
cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds

1
cfs
2076.44
0.56

In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? :D Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it. :D
Well, shipmates, we are closing the year, and I think we have a winner !!!
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by minesweep » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:29 pm

matjen wrote:
cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds

1
cfs
2076.44
0.56

In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? :D Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it. :D
Maybe next year.

Mike

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matjen
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by matjen » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:31 pm

minesweep wrote:
matjen wrote:
cfs wrote:Well, let me enjoy these few seconds

1
cfs
2076.44
0.56

In first place, at least for a couple of seconds !!!
WHOOOSH! You jinxed yourself? :D Screw my portfolio, I need the S&P to drop another 3 points so I can receive my fame and glory. Those producers at CNBC and Bloomberg are going to be all over me to get me to appear on various shows to tell the little people how to invest and what the future holds. I just know it. :D
Maybe next year.

Mike
Ha! I think I held first place for probably 1 second with about 15 minutes to close. I will be sure to refine my calculations for next year. I'll come back better than ever.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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EternalOptimist
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by EternalOptimist » Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:54 pm

Finished 20th.....not bad. Happy New Year!
"When nothing goes right....go left"

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cheese_breath
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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by cheese_breath » Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:21 pm

At least I made the top 20%. It would have needed to lose a lot more today for me to win.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- November 2014

Post by southport » Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:42 pm

Looks like congratulations are in order for FinancialDave (unofficially, of course). The contest is great fun.

I found myself in first place about 1:30 EST time today, and managed a screen shot to prove it. I was entertaining thoughts of journeying to NYC to be interviewed by Liz Claman. But since I finished 48th, I doubt she's interested.

Thank you Taylor for a very entertaining exercise!

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