What percent "Boglehead" are you?

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RunningRad
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What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by RunningRad » Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:40 am

I have noticed that there are a wide range of participants here, in terms of level of commitment to the Boglehead philosophy, which I would define as all index, stay the course, minimal or no tilting, simplified portfolios--best typified by the Three Fund Portfolio. On the other end of the spectrum, there are folks here who may own an index fund or two (or 14) but have other investing interests, be it in tilts, factors, alternatives, individual stocks and bonds, real estate, private equity, a privately held business, or, heaven forbid, DFA funds. ;)

What I would like to know is, by your own reporting and standards, what " percent Boglehead " are you, and if you are less than 100% where do you deviate?

I'll go first. I consider myself to be 60% Boglehead, and I deviate by tilting to small/value, holding a small percentage of assets in actively managed funds and a small percentage of assets in alternatives.
Few decisions in life motivated by greed ever have happy outcomes--Peter Bernstein, The 60/40 Solution

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by TheTimeLord » Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:44 am

Probably 75%. I am virtually entirely invested in index funds today. I have some timing like beliefs. I hate bonds inherently. And the best investment I can ever remember making was buying FEN a closed-end MLP mutual fund on 11/17/2008. Oh and I have a sign givie me Wellington or give me death in my study.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Alex Frakt » Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:48 am

I tilt and I hold a (small) amount of actively managed funds and occasionally do some tactical asset allocation. And I'm a 100% boglehead.

Being a boglehead is about long term planning, a general belief in market efficiency, and doing what you can to keep your tax and investing costs under control. Investing in just 3 broad market index funds is not a requirement.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Greenie » Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:53 am

I am all in Boglehead philosophy. I own only index funds and mostly all the three fund idea but tilt a little Emerging Market.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by bottlecap » Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:56 am

Tough question, because who gets to define what a Boglehead is and what "tilting" is, as opposed to a well designed allocation. There is also the matter of TIPS funds, which aren't index funds, at least at Vanguard.

I'd say we're about as close to 100% as you can get while not employing a 3 fund strategy and while owning the Vanguard TIPS fund. Everything else is indexed and we have no individual securities. We have a total of about six funds set according to our AA. We own more small and mid caps than just the TSM for greater diversification and due to a moderately aggressive risk profile. We don't try to guess which asset class will outperform, but obviously are hoping for better risk-adjusted returns in the US market.

We have nothing against low cost actively managed funds, but don't think they'll be any better than index funds and don't want to spend time worrying about which one to pick. Easy and simple wins over hard and complex for me.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Tycoon » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:11 am

If the definition of being a Boglehead is owning only index funds I'm 41% Boglehead. If the definition involves owning only low expense ratio investments I'm 100% Boglehead.

But then we could debate what constitutes a "low" expense ratio.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by logicteach » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:12 am

I consider myself 100% Boglehead at least in principle. I have my rollover IRA in 3-fund Admiral Share portfolio. I'm growing a little Roth as a 5 fund portfolio. That does include an index ETF as well as my index mutual funds but I don't think that counts against me. I do own a little individual stock outside of retirement funds but I've had it for years and didn't actually select or purchase it myself. I also have some i bonds (not a fund)which I purchased before I began learning about and managing my own investments, in other words, in my pre-Boglehead days. That's about it. I'm not saying I absolutely refuse to consider any actively managed funds or tilt my portfolio,but I'm not there yet and I believe that I will--unless something changes in the investment world--always be a Boglehead.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by LarryG » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:15 am

I am 100% , actually 99% if you consider I bonds not index. Since I retired in 1998, my entire portfolio has been in index funds.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by cfs » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:23 am

Thanks for asking the good questions.

I do believe in buy to hold, low cost, and tax minimizing, but if Bogleheadism is defined as holding 100% index mutual funds, then I am about 40% Boglehead, all this based on holding one individual stock and actively managed mutual funds including an aggressive one in my imperfect SWAN or sleep well at night portfolio.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by 4nursebee » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:26 am

60% low cost index funds in 401Ks and an annuity.
I don't talk about the rest of the stuff around here.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Sagenick48 » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:30 am

I am probably a 15% Boglehead in asset terms but like Tycoon am a 100% Boglehead in terms of low cost investing. I will probably never be 100% because of tax considerations in my personal accounts but will eventually be 100% in my pension plan accounts which I am converting from individual stocks to index funds. Investing in individual stocks for the long term is a very low cost way investing. And if you have enough of them you get diversification. Even though index funds are more expensive, .10% of $100,000 is $100, which is equal say to 10 stock trades a year, and I did maybe 5 trades a year, I am switching to index funds for diversification and in anticipation of eventual incapacity.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:31 am

Giving myself 0-10 points on each item of the Bogleheads Investment Philosophy

1 Develop a workable plan -- 8, based on the fact that we're now in retirement and I think it's working. Workable, yes; plan, not so much! But I did do a big fancy spreadsheet around 5 years before retirement including all kinds of numeric guesses on things like health insurance costs, etc.

2 Invest early and often -- 5. (I was in grad school for a looonnnnnnggggg time. Didn't save much out of that $2,600/year stipend).

3 Never bear too much or too little risk -- 10, based on our feelings and actions in 2008-2009

4 Diversify -- 10, because I'm don't think I need "alternatives," I think the total stock market is "diversified," and I do not accept the black-is-white, level-is-tilted reasoning that total stock is somehow "concentrated" in large-caps

5 Never try to time the market -- 7. Shame on me for easing back on stocks following Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech. I have some terrific rationalizations I can use to not feel bad about that.

6 Use index funds when possible -- 10. I am cheating here because 100% of my stocks are literally in actual index funds and I don't think what I do with bonds should "count." My bond holdings are all investment-grade and consist of Total Bond, individual TIPS, a meaningful amount of series I savings bonds, and some dribs and drabs of Vanguard bond funds. And I own some life annuities (TIAA Traditional lifetime contract and SPIAs).

7 Keep costs low -- 9

8 Minimize taxes -- 10

9 Invest with simplicity -- 5

10 Stay the course -- 7, yeah, I fiddle and tinker a bit. I do what I call "impulse averaging." I do act on impulse but I wait months before deciding and acting, I don't make large changes, and I typically make them by setting up automatic exchanges that take a year or more to complete. I give my wife and me points for not doing anything at all during 2008-2009 though as I've said it was more "deer-in-the-headlights" than "stay the course."

81%.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Toons » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:35 am

75% :happy
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:49 am

70% :happy
My strikes are: holding individual equities and aghast! actively managed funds (some are zero choice - only thing offered in retirement plans :annoyed ).
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by placeholder » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:57 am

RunningRad wrote:I have noticed that there are a wide range of participants here, in terms of level of commitment to the Boglehead philosophy, which I would define as all index, stay the course, minimal or no tilting, simplified portfolios--best typified by the Three Fund Portfolio.
Why do you get to define that as Boglehead philosophy?

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by RunningRad » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:10 pm

placeholder wrote:
RunningRad wrote:I have noticed that there are a wide range of participants here, in terms of level of commitment to the Boglehead philosophy, which I would define as all index, stay the course, minimal or no tilting, simplified portfolios--best typified by the Three Fund Portfolio.
Why do you get to define that as Boglehead philosophy?
It was my own interpretation of the idealized execution of the BP. YMMV

I like the Nisiprius scoring system. :thumbsup

I scored a 75 :happy
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by tim1999 » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:16 pm

Sagenick48 wrote:I am probably a 15% Boglehead in asset terms but like Tycoon am a 100% Boglehead in terms of low cost investing.
That's how I'd describe myself.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by RunningRad » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:20 pm

4nursebee wrote:60% low cost index funds in 401Ks and an annuity.
I don't talk about the rest of the stuff around here.
Do tell! :D
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by cheese_breath » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:22 pm

Maybe 90%?

If I can consider my TIAA Traditional as bonds then I'm close to age in bonds, with just a few percentage points heavy in stocks. Stocks are all in two index funds, mostly TSM and a little S&P 500. A little more in cash than I'd like (Ally Bank), but adverse to buying bonds at my age. Deviate from a true Boglehead in that I have 0% in international funds.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Dandy » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:24 pm

Being a Boglehead is somewhat a loose definition. Some purists (no knock intended) might feel Mr. Bogle is not a Bogelhead because he does tactical allocations e.g. recently indicating that people should consider adding corporate bonds not just holding the Total bond fund. He is also not a fan of International equities. So he is not a strict devotee to 2 of the 3 funds in the very popular 3 fund portfolio. He also isn't a great fan of rebalancing I'm told. What percentage would you assign to him? :D

Being a Boglehead is often a bigger tent than many discussions suggest.

I think I'm about 80% a strict Boglehead and about 90% a reformed Boglehead :happy Equity investments, except for some small legacy investment, is all index funds with some tilt toward Small Cap, Value Index and REIT Index funds. Fixed income includes Total Bond Index and TIPs Funds along with several corporate, short term funds and a sizeable CD ladder. No individual stock and very compliant with "proper" fund placement. All my investments are with Vanguard so they are low cost. Some CDs and savings at online banks.

I continue to live below my means, rebalance to a target range. But focus more on the equity vs fixed income allocation than the sub allocations to each, I adjusted my equity allocation in retirement and plan to go from 55% to about 40% by age 70 and plan to hold at 40%- not quite age in bonds.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by SailingAway » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:26 pm

If it's strictly on the percentage of indexed funds issue, around 40%. All equities indexed. VG tax exempt munis and TIPS, technically both active funds, but as indexy as you can get.

If measured on the Nisiprius system and allowed his #6 cheat on the above holdings about 85%.

100% in philosophy for sure.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by jeff1949 » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:45 pm

All index funds, buy, hold and rebalance but tilt to SV, Emerging Markets and REITs. Plus lots of I-Bonds.

I'll say 80%.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by jimishooch » Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:47 pm

100% indexer,

I tilt to IT & utilities. have one managed ETF (WDTI) and a REIT.

very few bonds (munis), i like my 5 year CD ladder and have an annuity w/income rider.

maybe 65%
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by flyingaway » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:01 pm

I generally believe in Boglehead ideas, but do not follow them religiously. I hold all index funds when possible and believe in diversification. I do not have a written investment statement, do not have a fixed percentage for each category, do not have bonds (have cash), and do not rebalance. Not because I do not believe that those things are not important, but because I think keeping fixed percentage allocations and rebalance takes too much of my time (to check them and take actions). I also have an outsized extended market index fund allocation. I do believe living below your means and believe that putting more money in retirement accounts is more important than the precise percentage of allocation.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by just frank » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:09 pm

I've been lurking here for a couple years, but let's call me 50%

I would be 100% equity index now if I could easily switch some old TIAA-trad (can't be bothered to do the 5 year thing) at 46 years old.

I have been tilting to US/large. Starting to creep into REITs and tech.

I am anti-bond.

I believe that recession timing is possible and worthwhile. :shock:
Last edited by just frank on Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Cosmo » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:10 pm

I am 50% Chech, 32.5% Boglehead, 12.5% Irish, 4% German and 1% Stupid.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by TradingPlaces » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:16 pm

I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%.

Just like people brag about their stock pick gains, but never disclose their losses, I imagine that bogle heads brag about their bogleheadness and either forget or don't bring up the mistakes they made.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by TradingPlaces » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:18 pm

Cosmo wrote:I am 50% Chech, 32.5% Boglehead, 12.5% Irish, 4% German and 1% Stupid.

Cosmo
Are you sure you are 50% Chech, and not Czech?

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by placeholder » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:18 pm

TradingPlaces wrote:I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%.
I disagree because I dispute the initial assertion that "true Boglehead" is defined as in the OP so I ain't playing this game.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Copernicus » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:23 pm

60%. found BH too late. had many individual stocks in portfolio with gains that i did not want to sell. new money went into index etfs.
All heritage stocks are large cap, so i took 14% small cap index positions to complement them and simulate the market (a trcik I leanrnt on this forum!) .

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Professor Emeritus » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:27 pm

TradingPlaces wrote:
Cosmo wrote:I am 50% Chech, 32.5% Boglehead, 12.5% Irish, 4% German and 1% Stupid.

Cosmo
Are you sure you are 50% Chech, and not Czech?

I am assuming he means from Chechnya

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Aptenodytes » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:30 pm

This should be reposted as a poll, using Nisi's response as a template. Multiple options allowed, one item for each of the 10 principles. Let people add to the ten in their responses.

1 - Plan: 9
2 - Invest early and often: 8
3 - Just enough risk: 8
4 - Diversify: 10
5 - Don't time the market: 10
6 - Index: 10
7 Keep costs low: 10
8 Minimize taxes -- 7
9 Invest with simplicity -- 7
10 Stay the course -- 8

Total: 87

But correcting for Nisi's overly harsh grading I'd put myself below his 81.

The principles omit what I see as the most important aspect of being a Boglehead, which is to base decisions on evidence. Most of the principles are derived from that one.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Professor Emeritus » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:31 pm

TradingPlaces wrote:I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%.

Just like people brag about their stock pick gains, but never disclose their losses, I imagine that bogle heads brag about their bogleheadness and either forget or don't bring up the mistakes they made.
I am currently disposing of a very large Wellesley position to go VTSAX and index bonds funds in TSP. So that means I am relatively more Bogle than before. I will be 100% index when done.

I have posted my cpq story several times

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:31 pm

placeholder wrote:
TradingPlaces wrote:I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%.
I disagree because I dispute the initial assertion that "true Boglehead" is defined as in the OP so I ain't playing this game.
I agree. My personal touchstone for "Boglehead" is Twelve Pillars of Wisdom. It's hard to know how to summarize it, but I like "Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes."
"Doing a few things right," as I stressed in my book, included focusing on broad-based mainstream equity funds with wide diversification; evaluating funds relative to peers with similar objectives; ignoring short-term performance in favor of performance over at least a decade; carefully considering the drag of high expense ratios and sales charges; paying careful attention to portfolio quality, in stock funds, bond funds, and money market funds alike; and focusing on an asset allocation that is consistent with your own risk tolerance.

"Serious mistakes," I indicated, included such errors as investing in funds with spectacular records ("no investor ever went broke by failing to invest in a hot new product"), as well as those persistently at the bottom of the deck; excessive reliance on narrowly-based funds (say, emerging market funds); and using mutual funds for short-term trading. As the stock market bubble inflated, some of these dos and don’ts didn’t seem especially necessary. Now, after the fall, their validity has been reaffirmed.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Professor Emeritus » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:32 pm

just frank wrote: I am anti-bond.
Sure but in the Movies you always lose !!!!

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by RunningRad » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:41 pm

TradingPlaces wrote:I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%.

Just like people brag about their stock pick gains, but never disclose their losses, I imagine that bogle heads brag about their bogleheadness and either forget or don't bring up the mistakes they made.
I would state it a little bit differently as I do not believe that "bogleheadedness" is not an achievement, as much as it is how you are. I would restate it as that many will preach the gospel but perhaps do not follow it to the degree that they preach--which is entirely human nature.

What prompted me to start this thread was reading a lot of threads in which I surmised that many of the long standing members were, IMO, overly critical, oftentimes disparaging, of any deviations from the Bogleheads orthodoxy. The BH philosophy is pure and simple, and most people would be well-served to worship it. Some of us sinners are always looking for something extra. :twisted:
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by flyingaway » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:49 pm

TradingPlaces wrote:I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%.

Just like people brag about their stock pick gains, but never disclose their losses, I imagine that bogle heads brag about their bogleheadness and either forget or don't bring up the mistakes they made.
I think you should also look at the other side. If you are not market timing, do not hold and actively trade a lot of individual stocks, do live below your means, and do believe in low cost investing, then you are a boglehead.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by HueyLD » Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:52 pm

............
Last edited by HueyLD on Sat Feb 07, 2015 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Throckmorton » Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:08 pm

95% Target Retirement and 5% give or take a few good stocks. Since 2006 100% Target retirement for retirement and 5% stocks for medicinal reasons to keep the male hormones under control. Stocks and watching football.

That's my story.

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by LazyNihilist » Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:10 pm

I'd say around 90-95% the Non Boglehead thing I do is, keep watching market news all the time and if the market falls, try to move my bonds into equities, so a form of market timing. Other than that, I am as Boglehead(ish) as one can be.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by bcjb » Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:38 pm

Following Nisiprius and Aptenodytes, here's our list:

1 - Plan: 9
2 - Invest early and often: 5 (long years in grad school)
3 - Just enough risk: 7 (started off too conservatively)
4 - Diversify: 10
5 - Don't time the market: 7 (haven't been tested yet)
6 - Index: 9
7 - Keep costs low: 9
8 - Minimize taxes 6 (started off with some tax-inefficient funds)
9 - Invest with simplicity 9
10 - Stay the course 7 (haven't been tested yet)

Total: 78

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by obgyn65 » Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:50 pm

75% using the link posted by nisiprius.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Norris » Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:10 pm

Cosmo wrote:I am 50% Chech, 32.5% Boglehead, 12.5% Irish, 4% German and 1% Stupid.

Cosmo
LOL, Brother! Are ya sure your not being overly optimistic?

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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by Aptenodytes » Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:24 pm

bcjb wrote:Following Nisiprius and Aptenodytes, here's our list:

1 - Plan: 9
2 - Invest early and often: 5 (long years in grad school)
3 - Just enough risk: 7 (started off too conservatively)
4 - Diversify: 10
5 - Don't time the market: 7 (haven't been tested yet)
6 - Index: 9
7 - Keep costs low: 9
8 - Minimize taxes 6 (started off with some tax-inefficient funds)
9 - Invest with simplicity 9
10 - Stay the course 7 (haven't been tested yet)

Total: 78
You and Nisi are being too harsh with number 2. The question was what percentage Boglehead are you, which is in the present tense. Just because you spent a long time in graduate school (as did I) doesn't mean you aren't at present a full Boglehead. Although you are both right to take into account the past, because recent conversions are of uncertain value, if you have been saving seriously for at least a decade I'd say you get full credit for this one no matter what you were doing before.

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elgob.bogle
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by elgob.bogle » Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:42 pm

Some of the 10 points have more to do with one's history, while others can characterize an investor's habits both formerly and today. I think that it is most important to look at where one stand today, and not in the past. After all, how many of us were born a boglehead? I'd give myself neatly a perfect score for my current situation, but a miserable failing grade for my past situation.

elgob

damn - was beaten to the punch!

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noyopacific
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by noyopacific » Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:23 pm

I'm enjoying reading the comments on this topic. I will suggest that the OP, RunningRad may be describing an overly pious (as in: radical fundamentalist) view of the Boglehead Philosophy. If I were looking for a Ten Commandments of Bogleheads, I would look no farther than this: Bogleheads Investment Philosophy

I am especially concerned about the dangers of constricting the circle of Boglehead purity to exclude any form of tilting. I think that the Three Fund Portfolio is a great example to follow, especially for those who might not be particularly interested in exploring deeper into the the topic of risk-adjusted returns. The Bogleheads Investment Philosophy does not say that tilting is any kind of a sin.

Although my comments here are intended to be viewed with a degree of satire, I do believe that efforts to "shrink the tent" of Bogleheadism carry some adverse consequences. One of the strengths of this forum is the openness to discussing a wide range of approaches within the BH Philosophy. I don't mind if someone is stoned for advocating such blasphemous strategies as market timing or day trading but tilting ? Come on ! Tilters have always been welcome in the temple.

RunningRad, sorry if this seems like I'm attacking you personally, I'm not. I did notice you said you only gave yourself a 60% score. If anything, I think you are being too hard on yourself and deserve a better grade.
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by frugalguy » Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:28 pm

elgob.bogle wrote:Some of the 10 points have more to do with one's history, while others can characterize an investor's habits both formerly and today. I think that it is most important to look at where one stand today, and not in the past.
That caveat is necessary to allow Jack Bogle in as a 100% Boglehead. Otherwise, his shares in Wellington would disqualify him. :)

ArthurO
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by ArthurO » Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:29 pm

I don't think it is possible to be certain % boglehead. Boglehead is an investment philosophy and one either believes it or not,

How this philosophy is applied to ones individual investing flavor varies greatly from one person to the next...

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nisiprius
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:34 pm

How about this? A Boglehead is someone who self-identifies as a "Boglehead."
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jfn111
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Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

Post by jfn111 » Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:37 pm

I'm about 50% but slowly improving. I still have to many individual stocks and to much of a tendency to try to time the market. :oops:

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