is anything 'cheap' out there?

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Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:51 am

grok87 wrote:Japanese stocks
Ever try catching a falling knife? That said, Japanese stocks make up a healthy portion of Total International Stock Index, so well covered there.
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cjking
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by cjking » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:53 pm

I'm shunning Japanese stocks, because they are the second-most expensive, after American ones. See my previous post in this thread.

I suppose everyone's got their own definition of cheap.

(My target equity allocation is a cap-weighted allocation to those countries/regions that have 1/PE above the world average. Currently that means I'm aiming for an allocation of "World - (North America + Japan)" = Europe + Asia Pacific ex Japan + Emerging.)

Angst
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Angst » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:05 pm

grok87 wrote:1) ibonds are cheap at 0% real rate, short term tips rates are negative
2) 5 year penfed cds are cheap @2.12% yield vs. 5 year treasury @1.56%
3) commodities have gotten cheapish. silver is at a 4 year low.
Agreed, and I might add:

4) "20 year" ee bonds are cheap at 3.53% nominal, 20-yr treasury yield curve is under 2.7%

grok87
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by grok87 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:09 am

Angst wrote:
grok87 wrote:1) ibonds are cheap at 0% real rate, short term tips rates are negative
2) 5 year penfed cds are cheap @2.12% yield vs. 5 year treasury @1.56%
3) commodities have gotten cheapish. silver is at a 4 year low.
Agreed, and I might add:

4) "20 year" ee bonds are cheap at 3.53% nominal, 20-yr treasury yield curve is under 2.7%
I'm not so sure about the ee bonds. to get the 3.53% you have to hold to maturity for 20 years. If you cash in before then your yield is 0.1% or less.
personally i'm staying away.
Keep calm and Boglehead on. KCBO.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:27 am

Those seeking a guaranteed nominal floor exactly 20 years from now could consider EE bonds,
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beammeupscotty
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by beammeupscotty » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:44 am

Gambler wrote:
beammeupscotty wrote:
Gambler wrote:Dryships (symbol: DRYS)

52week low ($1.80). was ~$5 last year.
~$1B in debt but owns ~$1.1B in deep sea oil rig drilling substidary

in my after tax acct: sold $50k in S&P500 in a few days ago (before todays 2% drop) and bought this today. :shock:

wish me luck. :moneybag or :oops:
It's a lot cheaper today (down 15%). :oops:
whoops :?

lets just add $10k more, shall we
Only down another 85% since then. :oops:

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JonnyDVM
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by JonnyDVM » Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:52 am

beammeupscotty wrote:
Gambler wrote:
beammeupscotty wrote:
Gambler wrote:Dryships (symbol: DRYS)

52week low ($1.80). was ~$5 last year.
~$1B in debt but owns ~$1.1B in deep sea oil rig drilling substidary

in my after tax acct: sold $50k in S&P500 in a few days ago (before todays 2% drop) and bought this today. :shock:

wish me luck. :moneybag or :oops:
It's a lot cheaper today (down 15%). :oops:
whoops :?

lets just add $10k more, shall we
Only down another 85% since then. :oops:
So you're saying now is really the time to buy? :happy
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Sep 11, 2015 12:27 pm

grok87 wrote:
Angst wrote:
grok87 wrote:1) ibonds are cheap at 0% real rate, short term tips rates are negative
2) 5 year penfed cds are cheap @2.12% yield vs. 5 year treasury @1.56%
3) commodities have gotten cheapish. silver is at a 4 year low.
Agreed, and I might add:

4) "20 year" ee bonds are cheap at 3.53% nominal, 20-yr treasury yield curve is under 2.7%
I'm not so sure about the ee bonds. to get the 3.53% you have to hold to maturity for 20 years. If you cash in before then your yield is 0.1% or less.
personally i'm staying away.
19 more years to go.......
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

alex_686
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by alex_686 » Fri Sep 11, 2015 12:46 pm

MathWizard wrote:I thought the EMH was that everything is fairly priced in risk adjusted terms.
Yes, but that misses the point of the question.

10 years ago you could buy a 10 year treasury at 4%, factor in 3% inflation and you have a 1% real yield. Now, it closer to 2.6%, factor in 2% inflation, and you get a real yield of .6. So we have a narrow margin of error.

So today you are getting lower yield and more risk. It is the fair price, it is just that the fair price has gotten more expensive. We can work through other asset classes but we generally come to the same conclusion - lower returns and more risk.

btenny
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by btenny » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:37 pm

Actually I think two things are pretty cheap right now, oil and mining stuff ex precious metals.

I like the oil major stocks like XOM (exxon) or RDS (shell) or PSX (Phillips) or the Vanguard Energy fund. I already own a bunch of this stuff so I am not adding right now but I think prices are low and yields are good and moderately stable. All these majors have dividend yields of 3-4% or so and are relatively safe. Even Warren Buffett is buying at these prices. See here. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PSX&ql=0

I also like funds like PICK. It is a Black Rock Global metals and mining producers fund. It is at a multi-year low of $10.xx from normal price of $20.xx. So half off price wise. Right now these producers are hurting as global need for copper and iron and so forth is down. But in the long run these metals also go back up when the world economy improves. So maybe 2 years or so into the future this fund is likely to go back up to 20.xx or more. Plus the funds is yielding 13% now (although this will likely go down some) but it should stay above 5% minimizing down side risk.

Good Luck.

dc81584
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by dc81584 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:08 am

exeunt wrote:European and EM value stocks.
+1

sambb
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by sambb » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:13 am

hybrid cars are cheap right now - 2015 prius and camry hybrid because of upcoming redesign of the prius, and because gas is cheap. You can get a decent deal on those.

Nathan Drake
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Nathan Drake » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:31 pm

Looking at Vanguard international (VGTSX), it's basically been a "forgotten/dead decade" for these stocks (minus the dividend returns).

Will international have its 2-3X return in the span of a few years like the S&P 500?

cjking
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by cjking » Sun Sep 13, 2015 4:48 pm

If the ishares ETF data I've just looked up is correct, British shares have returned about 3.5% nominal over the last 15 years. Inflation has been about 2%, so a real annualised return of 1.5%.

As I write the FTSE 100 is at 6117, a level it first reached in the late nineties.

Of the six country/regional funds I use to cover the world, the UK market is the cheapest, with 1/PE10 = 7.9%. This compares to the world index at 4.9%. and US shares at 4.1%. The second cheapest is emerging markets at 7.4%, third is Asia-ex-Japan at 7.0%, 4th is Europe-ex-uk at 5.5%. (Europe including UK is at 6.3%.) Apart from North America, the only other of my six funds to be on the wrong side of the world average is Japan, with a yield of 3.8%

(In my spreadsheet my yields are calculated net of the fund expenses and withholding taxes I expect to act as a drag, so the actual 1/PE10 figures are a little higher than I've quoted.)

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Maynard F. Speer
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Maynard F. Speer » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:03 pm

cjking wrote:If the ishares ETF data I've just looked up is correct, British shares have returned about 3.5% nominal over the last 15 years. Inflation has been about 2%, so a real annualised return of 1.5%.

As I write the FTSE 100 is at 6117, a level it first reached in the late nineties.

Of the six country/regional funds I use to cover the world, the UK market is the cheapest, with 1/PE10 = 7.9%. This compares to the world index at 4.9%. and US shares at 4.1%. The second cheapest is emerging markets at 7.4%, third is Asia-ex-Japan at 7.0%, 4th is Europe-ex-uk at 5.5%. (Europe including UK is at 6.3%.) Apart from North America, the only other of my six funds to be on the wrong side of the world average is Japan, with a yield of 3.8%

(In my spreadsheet my yields are calculated net of the fund expenses and withholding taxes I expect to act as a drag, so the actual 1/PE10 figures are a little higher than I've quoted.)

All the action's been in small and mid-caps here - one reason active funds have done so well

Image

Right now the FTSE 100 is looking cheaper than the 250 again, but if you don't do fundamental analysis, a good argument to equal-weight your exposure as a rule of thumb

All the UK value today is in Micro-caps and AIM shares, which are almost as cheap as Eastern Europe - presumably because they're generally too small to have been pushed up by fund managers, and don't feature in many ETFs

I think a lot of people expect smaller companies to get hit the hardest when the next bear market strikes - as they've tended to in the past - while big global brands are seen as defensive ... So far, through the recent bump in the road, it's been the opposite (UK and Emerging small-caps have been among the least affected parts of the market ... Although in the US I think you need to look to private equity to get those kind of bargains)
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btenny
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by btenny » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:31 pm

I know what I am saying is not normal for this site but here goes. Active International Funds are just better than Index funds for most of these markets. IMO International stocks and stock markets are just not very efficient so good stock pickers do better. Smart people can repeatedly find bargains and do good stock picking. The various market in small and medium countries are just too thin and not well understood. So knowledgeable players just beat indexes. See the various Vanguard or Harbor active funds.

In the Harbor large cap case prices of the funds are way up over the last 10 years so I wonder if there are really any bargains left. See here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HAIN ... king":true}

But the prices for small International Stock are similar according to this chart. So I am not sure if there are profits to be made by adding to International. See here for comparison of VINEX (small caps) with HAINX (large caps) with SP500 and the International benchmarks.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... ture=en-US

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Watty
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Watty » Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:40 pm

is anything 'cheap' out there?
Low cost index funds. :beer

Clive
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Clive » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:45 am

Maynard F. Speer wrote:
cjking wrote:If the ishares ETF data I've just looked up is correct, British shares have returned about 3.5% nominal over the last 15 years. Inflation has been about 2%, so a real annualised return of 1.5%.

As I write the FTSE 100 is at 6117, a level it first reached in the late nineties.

Of the six country/regional funds I use to cover the world, the UK market is the cheapest, with 1/PE10 = 7.9%. This compares to the world index at 4.9%. and US shares at 4.1%. The second cheapest is emerging markets at 7.4%, third is Asia-ex-Japan at 7.0%, 4th is Europe-ex-uk at 5.5%. (Europe including UK is at 6.3%.) Apart from North America, the only other of my six funds to be on the wrong side of the world average is Japan, with a yield of 3.8%

(In my spreadsheet my yields are calculated net of the fund expenses and withholding taxes I expect to act as a drag, so the actual 1/PE10 figures are a little higher than I've quoted.)
All the action's been in small and mid-caps here - one reason active funds have done so well

Image

Right now the FTSE 100 is looking cheaper than the 250 again, but if you don't do fundamental analysis, a good argument to equal-weight your exposure as a rule of thumb

All the UK value today is in Micro-caps and AIM shares, which are almost as cheap as Eastern Europe - presumably because they're generally too small to have been pushed up by fund managers, and don't feature in many ETFs
...
The FT100 and FT250 earnings yields are quite closely aligned, around 5.5% recently. The FT250's (mid/smaller caps) earnings growth rate has been much higher than the FT100's and the index prices have reflected the difference. Most of the lag in the FT100 is down to its index constitutes and weightings i.e. the stocks it more heavily tilts towards (largest caps) have performed relatively poorly. Broadly the FT250 has been a more comparable index with respect to total return to the S&P500.

Of the order of 80% of FT100 stocks earnings are from 'foreign' (to UK). In contrast around 50% of both FT250 and S&P500 earnings are sourced from foreign (to UK and US respectively). Personally as a UK investor IMO 50/50 S&P500 and FT250 is a reasonable choice, being around 33% domestic US earnings, 33% domestic UK earnings, 33% 'foreign' (of which some US/UK trade is contained within that 'foreign').

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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by halfnine » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:58 pm

Australian dollar

rakaye47
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by rakaye47 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:30 pm

Easy question: anything related to commodities is cheap. But are you brave enough to buy when everyone is selling?

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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Dulocracy » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:50 pm

I would throw in my vote for South America and Frontier Markets as cheap. They are the only purchases that I make outside my asset allocation, and I only use my credit card rewards (Fido Amex) to buy them, so my position is very, very small.
I'm not a financial professional. Post is info only & not legal advice. No attorney-client relationship exists with reader. Scrutinize my ideas as if you spoke with a guy at a bar. I may be wrong.

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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by JonnyDVM » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:56 pm

Every time I buy emerging markets I smugly post on the "0% international?" threads about how it's smart to broadly diversify, tilt emerging, and buy something when it's cheap. Then the next week emerging drops another 5%. Rinse repeat. The next 20 years better be rip roaring for international or I'm gonna feel like a real dunce.
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Maynard F. Speer
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Maynard F. Speer » Tue Sep 15, 2015 10:21 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:Every time I buy emerging markets I smugly post on the "0% international?" threads about how it's smart to broadly diversify, tilt emerging, and buy something when it's cheap. Then the next week emerging drops another 5%. Rinse repeat. The next 20 years better be rip roaring for international or I'm gonna feel like a real dunce.
I know it's not a very BH thing to say, but: value tells you what to buy; technicals tell you when to buy

Better to wait til an asset's above its moving average before buying, as while not a perfect marker of trend, it can't recover much without moving above its moving average - so at least not buying all the way down
"Economics is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions." - John Maynard Keynes

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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by beammeupscotty » Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:03 am

beammeupscotty wrote:
Gambler wrote:
beammeupscotty wrote:
Gambler wrote:Dryships (symbol: DRYS)

52week low ($1.80). was ~$5 last year.
~$1B in debt but owns ~$1.1B in deep sea oil rig drilling substidary

in my after tax acct: sold $50k in S&P500 in a few days ago (before todays 2% drop) and bought this today. :shock:

wish me luck. :moneybag or :oops:
It's a lot cheaper today (down 15%). :oops:
whoops :?

lets just add $10k more, shall we
Only down another 85% since then. :oops:
And down another 99.9% since then. Ouch.
Image

TomCat96
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:25 am

Valuethinker wrote:This came from our discussion of CALPERs new investment strategy in real estate (direct investment, not funds, blue chip assets). I was questioning whether this was all a bit 'late to the party'.

To continue

I would say this is all an example of what is confronting all multi asset investors.

There just aren't any cheap assets out there.

I can point to the overvalued ones:

- IPO stocks
- high yield debt
- Emerging Market debt (country by country)

And I can point to lots of things I have jitters about (equities, pretty much everywhere).

But it's hard to see 'value' in terms of overlooked, neglected, unloved sectors.

Oil. USD/EUR, USD/CNY, USD/GBP...actually all foreign currencies at the moment relative to the dollar. The dollar is exceptionally strong at the moment, and acting like a safe haven.

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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by asif408 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 9:52 am

TomCat96 wrote:Oil. USD/EUR, USD/CNY, USD/GBP...actually all foreign currencies at the moment relative to the dollar. The dollar is exceptionally strong at the moment, and acting like a safe haven.
Jack Bogle says in the long run currency is a wash. So I guess at some point the tides will turn..............

Imbros
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Imbros » Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:52 pm

Curious, does anyone still think that the Energy and/or Mining are cheap?
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Theoretical
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by Theoretical » Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:04 pm

EM Value still is, amazingly enough.

tim1999
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by tim1999 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:29 pm

Big oil is cheap in my opinion but I am not making any moves based upon that thought.

asif408
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by asif408 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:43 pm

Imbros wrote:Curious, does anyone still think that the Energy and/or Mining are cheap?
Well, since this thread started back in October 2014 energy and mining company shares are down anywhere from 1 to 20% depending on what fund you look at. And they were cheap back then. :shock: Now they were down 30 or 40% a year ago, so it's possible you've missed the point of maximum cheapness. But I don't think everyone is running out and buying energy and mining company shares right now.

TomCat96
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:10 pm

'Cheap' is a relative adjective that must be described with respect to something.

Take Oil for instance. Oil is undoubtedly cheap relative to it's price levels these past few years. Same thing goes for the Euro. The Euro hasn't been this cheap relative to the dollar for a decade.

The question of whether something is cheap or not usually goes hand in hand with: Can I profit from the cheapness?
And the answer to that depends on "Why is that thing cheap?"

The market does price in information efficiently, but that doesn't mean it is omniscient. Extremely complex events which are likely to trigger an unknowable number of other events such as a Eurozone breakup is likely a big reason for why the Euro is cheap relative to the dollar. Indeed, a weakening Euro and strengthening dollar are two sides of the same coin that would lead to the USD/EUR converging in nominal terms.

Can you profit off that uncertainty however? That's a philosophical question. Only you can answer that really.
But I do believe if one were to speculate on something such as a Eurozone breakup, that speculator's odds of beating the market would be greater (not greater than random chance, but greater than normal) because both the speculator and the market are both blind, relatively speaking.

So what about profiting off cheap oil? Has anyone been paying attention as to why?
Completely under the radar of the mainstream media, OPEC and Saudi Arabia have been locked in a pricing war against American producers. Following the dramatic oil upswings and the talks of peak oil in the media around 2013, the western world suddenly "discovered" it had massive oil deposits--deposits larger than the middle east. The green river formation alone is estimated to have a potential 480 billion cubic meters of oil, while saudi arabia only has 42 billion in cubic reserves (although nobody knows for sure how much they really have)

In fact in 2015, we were the number one producer of oil in the world. Yes us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... production

After the Saudis and OPEC tried to bankrupt our nascent oil producing industries here by dumping supply onto the market,
(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-2 ... tion-live-)
our oil companies proved more resilient than anticipated. I personally thought they would succeed. They did not. The Saudi oil minister was fired.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/07/investi ... -minister/

and our shale oil production is ramping up again:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-2 ... production
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/07/us-can-g ... ister.html

The actionable bottom line is this. We actually have a ton of oil here in the states. Yes oil is cheap, but the reason why it's cheap is because the US is supplying massive amounts of oil on the market now. If our oil shale industry continues as it has, a surplus of oil is the foreseeable future.

If that is the reason why oil is "cheap" then trying to take advantage of cheap oil prices would be a foolish move.

halfnine
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by halfnine » Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:48 pm

TomCat96 wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:This came from our discussion of CALPERs new investment strategy in real estate (direct investment, not funds, blue chip assets). I was questioning whether this was all a bit 'late to the party'.

To continue

I would say this is all an example of what is confronting all multi asset investors.

There just aren't any cheap assets out there.

I can point to the overvalued ones:

- IPO stocks
- high yield debt
- Emerging Market debt (country by country)

And I can point to lots of things I have jitters about (equities, pretty much everywhere).

But it's hard to see 'value' in terms of overlooked, neglected, unloved sectors.

Oil. USD/EUR, USD/CNY, USD/GBP...actually all foreign currencies at the moment relative to the dollar. The dollar is exceptionally strong at the moment, and acting like a safe haven.
Oil has contango to worry about.

The currencies you listed have to overcome negative carry. USD/AUD would be more compelling.

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whodidntante
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Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Post by whodidntante » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:40 pm

If you want exposure to the price of oil, buy a futures contract. Buying a vertically integrated supermajor is a whole different animal.

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