What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

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boglesmind
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by boglesmind » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:22 pm

livesoft wrote:
boglesmind wrote:Quicken does a good job of calculating IRR and Vanguard YTD shows net additions/withdrawals separately from investment gains.

While Quicken does a good job of calculating IRR, Quicken will annualize it unless users do the right thing. For instance, if one was up YTD back at the end of June by 5%, many Quicken users would report they were up 10% according to a Quicken IRR calculation. Here on 12/31 there is very little difference between an annualized number and a YTD number since there is only one more day in the year to go as I type this, so this is less of an issue today.



Good point. This is why I always set the end date to 12/31/YY when calculating IRR using Quicken.

hellobogle
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by hellobogle » Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:08 pm

I have been entering in my monthly updates to the Bogleheads Returns spreadsheet, but I do not quite understand how the returns are calculated. Could someone please explain?

Overall, it says 3.9% as my YTD performance for my entire portfolio. I understand that one should look at the portfolio as a whole, I was curious how each of my accounts performed separately so I copied the sheet for each account into a new Bogleheads Returns spreadsheet.

For an account that I just started in August, it says my trailing investor return (money weighted return, internal rate of return) since 7/31/15 is -17.62%! Yet the 3 month trailing portfolio return is 5.44% (It does not give the 6 month return) I was only invested in broad US index funds.

I have 4 questions:

1. Did the market really fall that much? I am hesitant to believe the calculations are correct. If they are, I must have nerves of steel because I didn't even flinch and I do keep an eye on things. I am more apt to believe I made an error somewhere.

2. If it is correct, then I want to be sure that I understand the difference between investor return and portfolio return. As I understand, investor return takes into account that I have been adding to my account overtime and it looks at the times where I have invested. Portfolio return is just if I were to lump sum at the beginning and never touch it again.

3. When the investor return is so far off from the trailing return, does this mean that I auto-contributed on the worst days with the highest peaks?

Disclaimers:
1. I do not care if the market fell 18%, and I will take no action either way. I would just like to understand what these numbers mean.
2. I must assume that this answer is probably discussed earlier in the thread, and I admit that I have not read all 15 pages. However I am confused and I believe others may also be confused, so I thought I would ask anyway.
3. Again, this is not actionable, but it is intriguing and I would like to know if I am interpreting this correctly.

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Aptenodytes
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Aptenodytes » Thu Dec 31, 2015 10:18 pm

somewhere between -.07% and -.40%. Probably closer to -.40%.

naha66
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by naha66 » Thu Dec 31, 2015 10:55 pm

Up 4.1% thanks to the high grade investment perferred stocks. I have 35% vti 15% bond 50% perferred stock. I just like to beat Life Strategy Moderate growth fund. Whoops forgot about my cds.
Last edited by naha66 on Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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tnbison
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by tnbison » Thu Dec 31, 2015 11:11 pm

YTD: 12.19%
3 year: 17.94%
5 year: 14.24%

time weighted returns calc'd via wiki

47% is in single stock (private ESOP), remainder indexed 82/18
Last edited by tnbison on Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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market timer
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by market timer » Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:40 am

Finished the year +2%. Did well trading Treasury futures, as usual, but these gains were offset by losses in oil, mortgage REITs, equity REITs, and international equities.

I take some comfort in the fact that 30-year TIPS started the year with a 0.8% yield and now yield close to 1.3%. Higher long term real yields suggest higher future returns. When I track net worth, I actually calculate future real value at age 65, taking the present value of my investments and compounding them at the 30-year TIPS real yield. An extra 50bps/year over 30 years is worth over 15%. I'm happy to eke out a small gain when real yields rise by so much.

mattshwink
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by mattshwink » Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:56 am

2015: 1.18%
2015 529: -1.06%

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cfs
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by cfs » Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:50 pm

ITB

And talking about my SWAN, closed the year ITB or in the black.

Wishing you a productive 2016.
~ Donating Member ~

bayview
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by bayview » Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:52 pm

Once again, I am using longinvest's calculator https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calcula ... al_returns, because I like having a consistent means of reporting returns. I understand that everyone has their own way of tracking things, but it sure would be nice if they also used this calculator. Having everyone singing out of the same hymnbook makes interpreting the lyrics and melody a whole lot easier.

Trailing portfolio return (time-weighted return, comparable return):
Portfolio return as of 12/31/15

1 month -0.93%
3 months 2.11%
6 months -1.57%
YTD 0.24%
1 year 0.24%

This is for a pretty conservative portfolio that is currently around 40/60, with the 60% bonds being G fund and Treasury funds, so I'm neither surprised nor disappointed by the 0.24% for this year. It certainly could have been worse, and in the meantime, I'm fully funding TSP at $24K/year plus the match. 2016 marks funding the Roths again. (We're living on one employed income + SS and some self-employment income.)

I've only tracked this portfolio back to February 2013, as our accounts were fragmented before then, and it would be a PITA (and unrevealing) to try to figure it out before then, but for those who love IRR:

Trailing investor return (money-weighted return, internal rate of return):
Investor return as of 12/31/15
Since* 2/28/13 4.56%

Our AA has been bouncing around a bit during this time, due to refinement of retirement goals.

Happy New Year, everyone.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

jon-nyc
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by jon-nyc » Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:57 pm

0.5% for the year, according to XIRR.

johnra
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by johnra » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:06 pm

62 y/o and still working:

60% stock MFs/ETFs (total, growth, value, contra, small cap, REIT, international, and emerging)
35+% bond MFs/ETFs (total, short term, and high yield)
5% metal MF/ETF

Overall, +0.01% (= (2015 year end - year's contrib)/2014 year end )

No changes planned for 2016
Last edited by johnra on Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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steve roy
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by steve roy » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:17 pm

The Mrs. and I are up .5% for '15. Our investments are stashed mostly at Vanguard, but approximately 16% of the total is with the Federal TSP.

Over the decade, we're up 4.3% for 3 years; 5.1% for 5 years; 4.7% for 10 years.

Our asset allocation is 30% equities, 70% bonds. Bonds are spread across Total Bond market, intermediate bond index, short term bond index, short term investment grade, and intermediate tax exempt. (Yeah, this is a lot of bond funds, but I don't care. The Total bond market is in there because I have Vanguard's Target Date fund in my 401(k), otherwise I would avoid it. We did, however, recently bail out of the short term TIPS fund and into short term nominals. I was tired of the fund's negative performance.) Average bond duration is 4.5 years, give or take.

The equity distribution is 40% small cap, 20% mid cap, 40% large cap. We have a value tilt and 25% of the equity allocation to international. I hold a slug of Wellesley totaling about 8% of total assets; this percentage will decline over time as I add more investment money to index funds.

I'll be retiring in December of this year; my bride will take the plunge the summer of '17.

crg11
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by crg11 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:34 pm

Using the Retirement Investment Returns spreadsheet, here are our returns based off a 80/20 asset allocation. Recently due to a job change, we have most of our portfolio now in Vanguard Target Retirement 2035 (VTTHX), with smallish % in Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX) and Transamerica Partners Stock Index (DSKIX) to bring it in line with our target allocation.

Annual portfolio return
2015 - 0.30%
2014 - 7.17%
Since 12/2013 - 3.05%

On a real positive point, one of us maxed out our 401k in 2015 for the first time. Talk about awesome! On a down note, neither of us are likely to contribute to our IRA for 2015. Maybe we can do something about those IRAs in 2016 (after maxing out the 401k again in 2016).
Last edited by crg11 on Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dan999
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Dan999 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:39 pm

2015 up 1.13%.Beating most of the Vanguard retirement funds, however Wellsley beat me by a quarter % which is my benchmark.

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jfn111
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by jfn111 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:58 pm

Finished crunching the numbers this AM
401K, 82% of investments, +5.3
Brokerage Account, 16% of investments, -1.5%
Gambling account, 2% of investments, - 6.5% :oops:

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ruralavalon
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:09 pm

50/50 asset allocation, retired, age 70. Percent returns are for all accounts together.

Down 0.22% for 2015 per Morningstar portfolio manager :( .

Up 0.07% by my rough calculation. (end balance + withdrawals)/beginning balance - 1.

Best fund for 2015 was Vanguard REIT Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGSLX) up 2.39%.
2nd best fund for 2015 was Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade Admiral Shares (VFIDX) up 1.63%.
3rd best fund for 2015 was Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBILX) up 1.27%.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:42 pm

Like some of the others, I don't try to calculate any kind of return on investment. It's not useful enough to me to go through the effort of getting all the contribute date/amount data into my spreadsheet. I use a mostly index approach (includes the stable-value fund at work) with some small and value tilting. The function of the spreadsheet is to track my actual portfolio against the ideal model, so that I can see what rebalancing needs to be done. It also, of course, produces a total of all the holdings.

As far as YTD, that's a bit difficult. I update my sheet approximately once per month, but that's a very rough "approximately". So the last update for 2014 was 12/15 and first of 2015 was 2/2. I can interpolate a value for the first of the year from that information of course.

I did deliberately do an update on 12/16 of this year to compare with the latest of last year. That showed an overall portfolio increase of about 6% or so, but again that's with new money included. I can tell from the 401k web site that at least half of the increase was due to contributions there. I do know the IRR for that account (.82% YTD), but as it's mostly fixed income that's not very interesting. I don't really have any idea how much flowed into taxable accounts during the year, nor when. I could go through statements from my various custodians, but no desire exists for that. I'm just not convinced that there is any utility in that.

Earl
This week's fortune cookie: "You will do well to expand your horizons." Ow. Passive-aggressive and vaguely ominous.

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Ketawa
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Ketawa » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:07 pm

Returns below are calculated using XIRR in Excel. They include my emergency fund from when I dedicated a separate allocation for it, they are calculated pre-tax adjustment, and I changed my AA in February from 80/20 to 75/15/10 by adding QSPIX, so they are mostly meaningless for comparison. My portfolio is heavily tilted to value, small, momentum, and profitability.

Code: Select all

 -1.2% Overall

 -4.6% Equities

 -4.6% Domestic Equities Total
 -6.4% Domestic SCV
 -3.0% S Fund

 -4.5% International Equities Total
 -1.3% Intl Developed
-16.7% Intl Emerging

  4.4% Fixed Income Total
  2.1% G Fund
  5.0% Special NFCU CDs
  5.2% Prepaid Cards

 13.8% QSPIX



QSPIX was my best performer by far, followed by fixed income. Domestic and international equities performed about on par with each other.

Because I'm curious how my tilted funds did compared to a regular benchmark, I also looked at 1 year returns for the funds, not my XIRR returns:
QSMLX lagged Vanguard TSM by about 5% and was about the same as Vanguard SCV.
The S Fund lagged Vanguard TSM by about 3.5%.
QICLX was a little ahead of Vanguard Developed Markets and QEELX was a little behind Vanguard Emerging Markets, so the combination would have been about the same as Vanguard TISM.

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mister_sparkle
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by mister_sparkle » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:29 pm

Down around 0.50% for the year, but up in dollar terms due to continuing contributions. :sharebeer

retired recently
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by retired recently » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:43 pm

I retired at 40 in 2008. This is the first year that my ending net worth was lower than the beginning balance, luckily on by a smallish amount. I would have still been up slightly for the year since given our spending.

renue74
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by renue74 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:55 pm

-0.66% for 2015

70/30 stocks/bonds

Hey...last year was an opportunity to buy at 2014 prices. :sharebeer

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rokidtoo
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by rokidtoo » Fri Jan 01, 2016 7:03 pm

0.12% as of 31 Dec 2015. Roughly 60/40 stocks/bonds. :(

MnD
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by MnD » Fri Jan 01, 2016 7:28 pm

2015 XIRR = -1.8%
Benchmark return=-1.4%, so I lagged my benchmark by 0.4 percentage points
2015 asset allocation = 37.5% US stock, 37.5% International stock, 25% fixed income and cash.

Benchmark was 37.5% Total US stock market (VTI), 37.5% total international stock (VXUS),
20% Total Bond Market (BND) and 5% Money Market Prime (VMMXX).

2015 XIRR by account:
His 401-K +0.4%
His taxable -9.0%
His t-IRA -7.2%
Her 401-K -0.1%
Her t-IRA -0.7%
Her r-IRA -0.2%
Her ESOP 0.0%

2014 I lagged my benchmark by 2.5 percentage points, 1.1% versus 3.6% for benchmark
2013 I beat my benchmark by 2.3 percentage points, 19.3% versus 17.0% for benchmark
2012 I beat my benchmark by 2.2 percentage points, 16.2% versus 14.0% for benchmark
2011 I lagged benchmark by 4.8 percentage points, -8.5% versus -3.7% for benchmark
2010 I beat my benchmark by 2.4 percentage points, 15.0% versus 12.6% for benchmark
2009 I beat my benchmark by 9.4 percentage points, 37.4% versus 28.0% for benchmark
2008 I lagged benchmark by 3.5 percentage points, -35.1% versus -31.6% for benchmark

longinvest
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Longinvest's Uniform Returns -- December 2015 edition

Post by longinvest » Fri Jan 01, 2016 8:25 pm

I wish a very happy new year to all Bogleheads!

For this last month of the year, I will report my latest return numbers, then I'll look back at my overall 2015 returns and compare them to a proper benchmark to evaluate my tracking error.

Here are my personal portfolio returns* for December 2015.

Target asset allocation 50/50 using Taylor Larimore's fantastic Three Fund Portfolio adapted for a Canadian investor:
  • VCN (25%): Total-market domestic stock index ETF
  • VXC (25%): Total-market international stock index ETF
  • VAB (50%): Total-market bond index ETF
The actual weightings in my portfolio may differ slightly from target due to various factors such as the rebalancing policy and a small "cash drag" (because part of my emergency fund sits in a short-term bond fund in my brokerage account, and is thus included in my returns).

Trailing portfolio returns (time-weighted returns, comparable returns)
Portfolio returns as of 12/31/2015
1 month 0.23%
3 months 2.40%
6 months -0.53%
YTD 3.35%
1 year 3.35%

I encourage Bogleheads to use the wiki:Calculating personal returns spreadsheet if they wish to calculate and report comparable personal returns in a uniform manner.

As promised, it's now time to discuss my 2015 returns.

In 2015, domestic Canadian stocks did poorly (-8.73%) dragged by a big oil segment. On the other hand, while international markets didn't do anything stellar in their local currencies, the Canadian dollar dropped in value, so international markets did outstandingly well (17.03%) for a Canadian, due to currency exchange rates. As for bonds, they did OK (3.46%).

Philosophically, I hold a three-fund portfolio because I want to harvest the return of the average invested dollar in each market (using Prof. William Sharpe's vocabulary) minus as little in fees as possible. This means that I don't expect to get glamorous returns; on the contrary, I only expect to get average returns, year after year after year, but reliably. I'll beat many other investors, but slowly and quietly, like the Tortoise of the Fable.

But, life happens, and I can't keep my portfolio perfectly balanced. I incur some costs, too. Among other things, this year I transferred my accounts to another discount broker to get the possibility of buying my ETFs commission-free. But, my old broker charged me exit fees. So, I like to get an idea of my personal tracking error.

If there was a LifeStrategy-like fund, in Canada, with an allocation identical to mine, I would use it as benchmark. Unfortunately, there isn't. So, I did the next best thing: I calculated the 2015 return of a custom benchmark using the monthly returns of my three ETFs as reported by Morningstar.ca (VCN, VXC, VAB). In other words, for each months, I calculated a benchmark return using the following formula:

  • benchmark_monthly_return = 0.25 X VCN_monthly_return + 0.25 X VXC_monthly_return + 0.50 X VAB_monthly_return

Here's a table showing my Benchmark's monthly and yearly returns and the returns used to compute them:

Code: Select all

             Benchmark        VCN        VXC        VAB    
  January        4.45%       0.37       7.93       4.75
 February        2.03%       4.28       4.03       -0.1
   March        -0.69%      -1.88      -0.17      -0.36
   April        -0.63%       2.67       -2.3      -1.45
    May          0.57%      -1.46       3.39       0.18
   June         -1.55%      -2.89      -2.09      -0.61
   July          2.09%      -0.41       5.75        1.5
  August        -3.13%      -4.05      -6.32      -1.08
 September      -1.59%      -3.91      -1.94      -0.25
  October        1.63%       1.87        5.2      -0.28
 November        0.41%      -0.29       1.79       0.06
 December        0.21%      -3.02       1.49       1.19
-------------------------------------------------------
   2015          3.62%      -8.74      17.04       3.46                 


The overall yearly return was calculated using the following formula:

  • yearly_return = (1 + January_return) X (1 + February_return) X ... X (1 + December_return) - 1

Comparing my portfolio's return (3.35%) to my benchmark's return (3.62%), I can see that I have suffered a -0.27% tracking error. Considering that my portfolio is not rebalanced monthly, but is rather subject to frequent partial rebalancing through contibutions, and that I incurred commission fees (and a small cash drag), the small size of the error gives me confidence that I didn't screw up the data entry. :wink:

As you can see, the return spreadsheet is useful to verify that am tracking my benchmark. (If I'm not, I'll know that I screwed up my data entry, as I use a three-fund portfolio and I have no reason not to get similar returns to my benchmark's). I can easily imagine a LifeStrategy or TargetRetirement fund investor shaking his head and thinking that I should simply look at my portfolio's balance and forget about all these return calculations.
:sharebeer

* These are not investor (internal, XIRR, money-weighted) or Beardstown Ladies returns.
Disclaimer (i): The main reason I participate in this thread is to help Bogleheads learn about properly calculating their personal returns and discover that there are different types of returns (investor vs portfolio). Unfortunately, many investors calculate their returns incorrectly.
Disclaimer (ii): What is the use of knowing one's personal returns? Not much, as it is a big mistake to project these returns into the future. I only see one interesting use: discovering that from month to month, past returns vary widely, helping one realize how useless they are. :annoyed
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic/international)stocks/(nominal/inflation-indexed)bonds | VCN/VXC/VAB/ZRR

gkaplan
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by gkaplan » Fri Jan 01, 2016 8:58 pm

I'm even for the year.
Gordon

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iceport
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by iceport » Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:23 am

gkaplan wrote:I'm even for the year.

What an uncanny coincidence! Me too!

So far this year, my starting value and ending value are identical, and there have been no contributions or withdrawals to the portfolio. I can safely report that my XIRR for the year is exactly 0.00% :D

Seriously, having been started on a random day in August 2014, this has always been a wacky thread. The longer it goes on, the wackier it gets...
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

Wild Willie
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Wild Willie » Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:52 am

Up .375% on an IRA portfolio with 95% invested in Target Retirement Income fund (VTINX).

On a related note, we have a group of 10 retired friends who all worked for and retired from the same company and annually, we compare results by computing our ROR using the following formula: We take our end of year total, add back any withdrawals we take during the year, and compare that to our beginning of year total. Then the difference (positive or negative) is divided by our beginning of year total to arrive at what we call our "annual ROR". (Conversely, any contributions to the portfolio from income from another source is subtracted out before the computation is made.) The only other info we report is our equity/fixed ratio and whether or not we have a FA or DIY.

May not be scientifically accurate, but since we all use the same formula, it works for us as sort of a "barometer". :sharebeer

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Youngblood
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Youngblood » Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:56 am

Our net worth was up 4.3% in 2015.

We are both retired and so I look at the investing portion of our net worth as would a state retirement entity. Therefore, investing performance, liabilities, expenses and income are all included. Unlike most (all?) state agencies my future obligations are fully funded.

During our working years I was also more concerned about net worth improvement each year. That is not to say, I didn't strive, pay attention to and have fun with all those numbers.

Retired at 50
Age 67

Still fully funded.

YB
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch

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midareff
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by midareff » Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:20 am

My closing 2015 number was a 2.58% gain for the year against a WR of roughly 3.7%, +/- a tenth or two depending on where the market was/is that month. This was the first year since 2008 I closed the year with less money than I started it. Like Youngblood, we are fully funded.

Like longinvest, I too benchmark. Our S&D portfolio outperformed the benchmark I use by 1.59%. I use the VG Admiral S&P500 as the proxy for the S&P500 in the same % as portfolio equities, the VG Admiral Total Bond Market as a proxy for Barclay's Agg in the same % as bonds and and the current Ally Bank Savings % as the bogey for cash. Interestingly enough, the S&P500 (VFINX) outperformed the VG Total US Stock Market (VTSAX) by .97% this year according to M*, .. .39% vs. 1.36%.

The last six + years have been great although I have little to no expectation of the returns from that period continuing.

Happy New Year. ... live long and prosper.
Last edited by midareff on Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

longinvest
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by longinvest » Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:31 am

Wild Willie wrote:Up .375% on an IRA portfolio with 95% invested in Target Retirement Income fund (VTINX).

On a related note, we have a group of 10 retired friends who all worked for and retired from the same company and annually, we compare results by computing our ROR using the following formula: We take our end of year total, add back any withdrawals we take during the year, and compare that to our beginning of year total. Then the difference (positive or negative) is divided by our beginning of year total to arrive at what we call our "annual ROR". (Conversely, any contributions to the portfolio from income from another source is subtracted out before the computation is made.) The only other info we report is our equity/fixed ratio and whether or not we have a FA or DIY.

May not be scientifically accurate, but since we all use the same formula, it works for us as sort of a "barometer". :sharebeer

As withdrawals are often taken throughout the year, this calculation could be improved by attributing half the withdrawals at the beginning and the other half at the end of the year, as suggested by William Bernstein in his awesome The Four Pillars of Investing classic (Taylor's gems). Here's the improved, yet almost as simple forumla that you and your friends could use:

  • annual_return = (end_balance + withdrawals/2) / (start_balance - withdrawals/2) - 1

This would give you a pretty good approximation of your time-weighted (comparable) returns. (The Bogleheads return spreadsheet does just that, but on a monthly basis).
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic/international)stocks/(nominal/inflation-indexed)bonds | VCN/VXC/VAB/ZRR

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Garco
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Garco » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:01 pm

Total return +2.3% in my main retirement fund, net of required retirement distributions taken over the year. Pretty disappointing but not disastrous. Overall net worth augmented by nice chunk of found money (inheritance). Partly because of this, we're sitting with a larger than typical amount of cash, some of which will be deployed in 2016 in investments.
Last edited by Garco on Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Wild Willie
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Wild Willie » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:13 pm

As withdrawals are often taken throughout the year, this calculation could be improved by attributing half the withdrawals at the beginning and the other half at the end of the year, as suggested by William Bernstein in his awesome The Four Pillars of Investing classic (Taylor's gems). Here's the improved, yet almost as simple forumla that you and your friends could use:

annual_return = (end_balance + withdrawals/2) / (start_balance - withdrawals/2) - 1

This would give you a pretty good approximation of your time-weighted (comparable) returns. (The Bogleheads return spreadsheet does just that, but on a monthly basis).

Long invest: Thanks, but I have a hard enough time getting them to stop playing golf, fishing, hunting, etc. long enough to do our simple calculation. If I put your formula (even though it's more accurate) on them, they'll tell me to take a hike (or go play golf, fish, hunt etc.) :shock:

but thanks for the suggestion.

longinvest
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by longinvest » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:32 pm

Wild Willie wrote:Long invest: Thanks, but I have a hard enough time getting them to stop playing golf, fishing, hunting, etc. long enough to do our simple calculation. If I put your formula (even though it's more accurate) on them, they'll tell me to take a hike (or go play golf, fish, hunt etc.) :shock:

They're probably right; knowing their returns won't change a thing. They're better off enjoying retirement. :wink:
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic/international)stocks/(nominal/inflation-indexed)bonds | VCN/VXC/VAB/ZRR

duffer
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by duffer » Sat Jan 02, 2016 3:38 pm

100% stocks, standard time-weighted formula = up 2.53% for the year. Woulda been over 4, but for the last two days--coulda, woulda, shoulda.

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Peter Foley
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Peter Foley » Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:01 pm

Other than gifting some appreciated mutual fund shares, we took no actions during the year that changed the makeup of our portfolio.

Total return was 1.9% on a portfolio that is very close to 50/50.

Best performers were various stable value funds. Worst performer was total international.

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Christine_NM
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Christine_NM » Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:11 pm

0% return after taking rmd, most of which goes for income tax with a little bit reinvested.

Spreadsheet says I have $91 more than I had last Jan. 1. My portfolio is basically a closed system with little new money going in and only the rmd withholding tax coming out so I do not bother with IRR -- no transactions to speak of.

My new motto is, it could be worse.
10% cash 45% stock 45% bond. Retired, w/d rate 1.5%

IlliniDave
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by IlliniDave » Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:25 pm

This is approximate, but I finished 2015 down around 3%--too much small cap, overseas, and EM. :(
Don't do something. Just stand there!

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burt
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by burt » Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:13 pm

30/70 Stock/Bond
-0.6 %: 1yr return as of 1-2-16

Took a hit on TIPS (VIPSX) at -1.83%.

burt

joebh
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by joebh » Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:19 pm

Year to Date, I'm up 0.0.

But I expect that to change once the market opens for the year.

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HuckFinn
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by HuckFinn » Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:57 pm

2015 - Down .10%

65% Stock, 35% Bond

Stock Composition - 70% US - Total Stock Market Fund (VTSAX), 30% Int'l - FTSE (VFWAX)
Bond Composition - 55% Interm Term Bond Index (VBILX), 45% Int Term Investment Grade (VFIDX)

FinancialDave
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by FinancialDave » Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:40 am

bayview wrote:Once again, I am using longinvest's calculator https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calcula ... al_returns, because I like having a consistent means of reporting returns. I understand that everyone has their own way of tracking things, but it sure would be nice if they also used this calculator. Having everyone singing out of the same hymnbook makes interpreting the lyrics and melody a whole lot easier.



Thanks for the spreadsheet link. I need to get a more consistent view of my returns as well.

Dave
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

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wander
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by wander » Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:15 am

2015 YTD -.87% with 83%/17% (stock/bond).

Seattlenative
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Seattlenative » Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:43 pm

Final calculation of my 2015 rate of return: +1.69%
Going forward, I will be extracting ROR data using the Return Sheet for Bogleheads (awaiting approval from the owner).

Side note: Although my portfolio slightly outperformed an unadulterated Three-Fund Portfolio in 2015, which reflected some inadvertent market-timing, there's no guarantee it would do so in the future. 2015 returns performance of the Three-Fund Portfolio ETFs, per updated 12/31/15 disclosures at Vanguard's web site:

Total Stock Market (VTI): +0.37%
Total International Stock Market (VXUS): -4.10%
Total Bond Market (BND): +-0.49%

thefireguy
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by thefireguy » Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:45 pm

Up about 2.8% for 2015. Courtesy of longinvest's bogleheads returns spreadsheet.

AA is 65% domestic stock, 25% international, 10% bonds. I'm fine with the high risk since we are in our 20's.

The main factors for the higher than average performance is Fidelity Contrafund (gave me about 6.3% return) and lucky timing of buying into S&P at the end of August (near the bottom) with my ROTH contribution.

Probably wouldn't do that again, as soon as I have it, the contribution is going in, in the future.

I'm sure like many others, international was a big time drag and everything else was flattish +/- 2%.

curmudgeon
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by curmudgeon » Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:58 pm

For 2015 +2.2% Around 88% large cap US, 10% cash/FI, 2% speculation

ericinvest
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by ericinvest » Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:34 pm

2015
Vanguard balanced index-fund portfolio: +0.40%
Schwab self-managed stock-heavy portfolio: +19.3%

Bracket
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Bracket » Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:28 pm

-1.3% for 2015. :thumbsdown

80/20 stock/bond
small cap value/REIT Tilted Portfolio
30% of equities in int'l with a small cap tilt
Total bond/G Fund/TIPs

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BigFoot48
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by BigFoot48 » Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:27 pm

-2.9% for 2015 per IRR. 42%/58%. Small cap losses were brutal. Thanks for nothing Coffeehouse portfolio! I may have to re-think finally moving to the 3-fund at age 70 and do it sooner. Live long and prosper (using the 3-fund)!
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

Baloophi
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by Baloophi » Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:24 am

Happy New Year, everybody!

2015 XIRR: -0.88%
2014 XIRR: 8.85%
2013 XIRR: 15.99%
2012 XIRR: 12.79%
2011 XIRR: -0.27%

Trailing Portfolio Return (YTD): -0.83%
3 Years: 7.92%
5 Years: 8.12%
(Thank you, longinvest, for the great spreadsheet!)

AA: 70/30 stocks/bonds
Simple Slice w/ annual rebalance:
30% - TOTAL STOCK
10% - REIT
10% - SMALL CAP VALUE
20% - TOTAL INT'L
-----------------------------
30% - TOTAL BOND

TroyMcClure
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Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Post by TroyMcClure » Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:44 am

2015 IRR = +7.15%
2015 portfolio return (using longinvest's spreadsheet) = +7.62%

NB: I am a European investor all invested in EUR, the currency factor explains a lot of the figure above compared to US investors.

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