This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

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Which is more fun for you?

2008, 2009, 2013
22
28%
2011, 2012, 2014 YTD
57
72%
 
Total votes: 79

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grap0013
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This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by grap0013 » Mon May 26, 2014 10:23 pm

2014 YTD has been boring (from an investment perspective only of course). Emerging markets have been a little bit interesting at times and that's about it.

Do you like it this way or do you prefer more volatility? Feel free to state your age with any responses.

Note in the poll, if you liked last year (2013), you have to also like 2008! There are no free lunches! :)
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

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LowER
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by LowER » Mon May 26, 2014 10:29 pm

The older I get, the more I adore boring.

However, a huge market dive would be great for me at this point in my accumulation phase, though awful for others, so I'll take what comes and make the best of it- what other choice(s) do I have?

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cheese_breath
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by cheese_breath » Mon May 26, 2014 10:44 pm

Boring is good.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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cfs
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by cfs » Mon May 26, 2014 10:49 pm

Concur

Boring is good.

Thanks for reading.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon May 26, 2014 10:54 pm

Honestly no. While I have been contributing to retirement since 2008 when I started working, the money going in then pales in comparison to what we are able to invest now. I can't help but feel like we're getting our money in with the market way too high. I'm not asking for a crash or anything and I do keep putting money in. It's just not a good feeling. Makes me feel better about being super aggressive paying off debt instead of trying to leverage though. Basically, I'm just saying a little more volatility wouldn't upset me.
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

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Sheepdog
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Sheepdog » Mon May 26, 2014 11:03 pm

I am not investing for "fun". I never have in my 50 years of investing...although I did "play" with about 15% of my savings in my accumulation days. So, boring safety with good earnings is fun for me, not volatility. .
Just because it isn't your fault doesn't mean it isn't your responsibility....Josh Reid Jones

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Raymond
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Raymond » Mon May 26, 2014 11:17 pm

Poll fail.

There is no "I don't care" option :D
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

WL2034
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by WL2034 » Mon May 26, 2014 11:39 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:Honestly no. While I have been contributing to retirement since 2008 when I started working, the money going in then pales in comparison to what we are able to invest now. I can't help but feel like we're getting our money in with the market way too high. I'm not asking for a crash or anything and I do keep putting money in. It's just not a good feeling. Makes me feel better about being super aggressive paying off debt instead of trying to leverage though. Basically, I'm just saying a little more volatility wouldn't upset me.
Feel basically the same. Now have enough money invested that I don't want to lose it with a drop, but sure wish this was late 2008 knowing what was in-store since this is the first time we have any substantial money to invest. Also feel like we are shoveling money into the market when it is "high" now, but then I realize that way of thinking is market timing and just try to forget about it and keep investing.

tpm871
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by tpm871 » Tue May 27, 2014 12:35 am

I wouldn't put 2013 in the same category as 2008. 2013 wasn't volatile since it mostly just steadily increased. 2008 was wild ride, with huge daily swings both down and up.

What I would prefer (but wouldn't necessarily be the most fun) is a market that is constantly oscillating up and down by a non-trivial amount, with slow and steady overall gains over time. Oscillation would make a "rebalancing bonus" be more likely, for those of us with a good discipline for such things. Slow gains would mean that a bubble doesn't form.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Johm221122 » Tue May 27, 2014 1:32 am

It is what it is, I am just hoping my sequence of returns of my investing timeline is good
John

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by White Coat Investor » Tue May 27, 2014 2:01 am

Johm221122 wrote:It is what it is, I am just hoping my sequence of returns of my investing timeline is good
John
Amen. It's funny how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Levett » Tue May 27, 2014 5:40 am

"how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?"

Yes, Doc.

But of the bazillions of posts one rarely sees "luck" cited as an important--perhaps essential--factor.

There is the grand illusion of "skill"--the self-made, above-average tilter, the builder of the world's greatest mousetrap, the Factor Master.
;-)

Lev

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by room88 » Tue May 27, 2014 6:12 am

2014? I more care about what it is in 2035 :p

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WallyBird
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by WallyBird » Tue May 27, 2014 7:05 am

2008 was ultimately rewarding for those who stayed invested, but it was hardly fun at the time. Especially for those who got to experience the bad economy firsthand in the form of a layoff.

I'm not a great investor, but I've been persistent, and for as long as I've been investing, I've noticed that the markets don't give a hoot what I think. That said, I think it's better for the country (and my sanity) when markets and the finance sector are boring.
"Look, sir, we can't just do nothing." | "Why not? It's usually best."

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HomerJ
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by HomerJ » Tue May 27, 2014 7:12 am

JonnyDVM wrote:Honestly no. While I have been contributing to retirement since 2008 when I started working, the money going in then pales in comparison to what we are able to invest now. I can't help but feel like we're getting our money in with the market way too high. I'm not asking for a crash or anything and I do keep putting money in. It's just not a good feeling. Makes me feel better about being super aggressive paying off debt instead of trying to leverage though. Basically, I'm just saying a little more volatility wouldn't upset me.
When the DOW is at 100,000 in 30 years, it won't matter that much what the prices were today... You'll still be pretty happy.

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HomerJ
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by HomerJ » Tue May 27, 2014 7:13 am

Sheepdog wrote:I am not investing for "fun".
This.

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HomerJ
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by HomerJ » Tue May 27, 2014 7:19 am

EmergDoc wrote:
Johm221122 wrote:It is what it is, I am just hoping my sequence of returns of my investing timeline is good
John
Amen. It's funny how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?
I don't think sequence of returns matters as much when investing... Start investing in 1940 or 1960 or 1980... buy and hold for 30+ years has worked just fine without any need for skill or luck.

Sequence of returns matter more when drawing down in retirement...

ajcp
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by ajcp » Tue May 27, 2014 7:22 am

HomerJ wrote:
EmergDoc wrote:
Johm221122 wrote:It is what it is, I am just hoping my sequence of returns of my investing timeline is good
John
Amen. It's funny how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?
I don't think sequence of returns matters as much when investing... Start investing in 1940 or 1960 or 1980... buy and hold for 30+ years has worked just fine without any need for skill or luck.

Sequence of returns matter more when drawing down in retirement...
Sometimes it worked out fine, sometimes it worked out great, sometimes it worked out amazingly awesome.

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grap0013
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by grap0013 » Tue May 27, 2014 7:25 am

HomerJ wrote:
Sheepdog wrote:I am not investing for "fun".
This.
I didn't say "for fun". I said "which is more fun?" :) Unless you are a robot, you have some emotions tied to your money whether you want to have those emotions or not.
There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

allocator
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by allocator » Tue May 27, 2014 8:39 am

EmergDoc wrote:
Johm221122 wrote:It is what it is, I am just hoping my sequence of returns of my investing timeline is good
John
Amen. It's funny how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?

How about some planning for bad luck?

Johm221122
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Johm221122 » Tue May 27, 2014 8:46 am

allocator wrote:
EmergDoc wrote:
Johm221122 wrote:It is what it is, I am just hoping my sequence of returns of my investing timeline is good
John
Amen. It's funny how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?

How about some planning for bad luck?
I think most of us are planning for things going bad, I'd rather have "amazingly awesome"".But returns are not up to us :sharebeer

John

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Tue May 27, 2014 8:51 am

Investing is not for entertainment of excitement. That's what gets people into trouble.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by cfs » Tue May 27, 2014 9:45 am

HomerJ wrote:When the DOW is at 100,000 in 30 years, it won't matter that much what the prices were today... You'll still be pretty happy.
That's another ball cap for my collection - I visited the NYSE in 1999 and bought a "Dow 10,000" ball cap, I will not buy another one until the year 2044 when we hit the Dow 100,000 milestone.

Thank you.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by leo383 » Tue May 27, 2014 10:14 am

HomerJ wrote: When the DOW is at 100,000 in 30 years, it won't matter that much what the prices were today... You'll still be pretty happy.
Absolutely no guarantee that it will be there. It might very well be at zero.

Almost a religious belief that it will go up over time.

What if it's exactly where it is today 30 years from now?

To the poll: this boring market makes me nervous because I don't think any of the things that should have been done to prevent the next crash/crisis/bad recovery got done at all.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Bracket » Tue May 27, 2014 10:21 am

I like the market like I like my anesthetics. Boring but safe.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by HomerJ » Tue May 27, 2014 10:47 am

leo383 wrote:To the poll: this boring market makes me nervous because I don't think any of the things that should have been done to prevent the next crash/crisis/bad recovery got done at all.
This boring market makes me LESS nervous because there are two ways a market can get its P/E ratio back to the mean.... Decrease P (usually a crash in price), or increase E (usually a long boring period where P remains about the same while E slowly grows).

I prefer the P staying the same with E slowly growing over P crashing.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by letsgobobby » Tue May 27, 2014 11:54 am

It is boring. I did much prefer the 1999-2009 period. Many opportunities to see the extremes of fear and greed in action, and as a result many opportunities to exploit mass behavioral errors. Now I just sit back in my boring 60/40 portfolio and other than save money, there's literally nothing to do. No rebalancing. No tax-loss harvesting. I'm not in the decumulation phase so no selling of investments or taking RMDs. And because I'm still accumulating, record-high stock market prices are not my friend.

Furthermore the low VIX and high PE10 do not give me a lot of confidence in intermediate market returns. So there's nothing to do, nothing that can be done, all the while I'm expecting muted returns for the next decade.

But I'm glad the economy is improved vs the worst periods, and that other people are finding it easier to invest and do well.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Ged » Tue May 27, 2014 12:02 pm

I retired in October 2013 a bit sooner than I had planned. Boring is the best thing possible for me for the next year or two while I lower my stock allocation and convert to Roth.

After that I don't care.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by billern » Tue May 27, 2014 12:08 pm

Too boring. People, myself included, are becoming complacent. It is funny how quickly people forget the bad when things are good. The next exciting stock market drop will freak people out.

My crystal ball says that tech company valuations are once again out of touch with reality (eg: whatsapp and beats). As are homes in some of the more expensive areas in the US. There is nothing I will do to act on this other than not getting caught up in it. I am looking forward to seeing what happens in the future.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Buddtholomew » Tue May 27, 2014 12:46 pm

billern wrote:Too boring. People, myself included, are becoming complacent. It is funny how quickly people forget the bad when things are good. The next exciting stock market drop will freak people out.

My crystal ball says that tech company valuations are once again out of touch with reality (eg: whatsapp and beats). As are homes in some of the more expensive areas in the US. There is nothing I will do to act on this other than not getting caught up in it. I am looking forward to seeing what happens in the future.
+1 - beware complacency.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by feh » Tue May 27, 2014 12:50 pm

cheese_breath wrote:Boring is good.

+1

Getting ready to retire in a couple years...would be very happy if the first few years happen to be sideways.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by IlliniDave » Tue May 27, 2014 1:00 pm

I like this market just fine, but guiltily, I must admit that I like more active time periods better.
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by texasdiver » Tue May 27, 2014 1:11 pm

It's the same market. Nothing special about measuring from Jan - Dec. For me, calendar years are a completely artificial measure.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by tetractys » Tue May 27, 2014 1:18 pm

In hindsight, I have to say that despite the market fear flying all around, 2008-10 was quite exiting and lucrative, as my posts from those days show. It's times like that when accumulators should tighten the belt and shovel every bit of coal they can scoop up into the fire. Folks who say money isn't made in a bear market are absolutely wrong. -- Tet

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by stemikger » Tue May 27, 2014 1:23 pm

I try and follow what Jack has been teaching for years. Pick an asset allocation that enables you to sleep at night and matches your goals and "DON'T PEAK". If you do that, you really don't know what the daily or yearly market is doing. But if I had a choice, boring is preferable. Slow, Steady and boring wins the race.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Buddtholomew » Tue May 27, 2014 1:48 pm

stemikger wrote:I try and follow what Jack has been teaching for years. Pick an asset allocation that enables you to sleep at night and matches your goals and "DON'T PEAK". If you do that, you really don't know what the daily or yearly market is doing. But if I had a choice, boring is preferable. Slow, Steady and boring wins the race.
I hope it peaks, but I will not peek to check.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by yukon50 » Tue May 27, 2014 2:40 pm

HomerJ wrote:
JonnyDVM wrote:Honestly no. While I have been contributing to retirement since 2008 when I started working, the money going in then pales in comparison to what we are able to invest now. I can't help but feel like we're getting our money in with the market way too high. I'm not asking for a crash or anything and I do keep putting money in. It's just not a good feeling. Makes me feel better about being super aggressive paying off debt instead of trying to leverage though. Basically, I'm just saying a little more volatility wouldn't upset me.
When the DOW is at 100,000 in 30 years, it won't matter that much what the prices were today... You'll still be pretty happy.

Actually it matters a lot.

I was buying a lot at Dow 14,000 in 2007 because I had a job. When the Dow was at 7,000 I lost my job and had much less capacity to buy.

But if the Dow gets to 100,000 in 30 years, you will have twice as much if you had bought in at Dow 7,000. So the prices of today do matter a lot.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by asset_chaos » Wed May 28, 2014 1:45 am

What happened to 2010?
Regards, | | Guy

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by stemikger » Wed May 28, 2014 5:19 pm

Buddtholomew wrote:
stemikger wrote:I try and follow what Jack has been teaching for years. Pick an asset allocation that enables you to sleep at night and matches your goals and "DON'T PEAK". If you do that, you really don't know what the daily or yearly market is doing. But if I had a choice, boring is preferable. Slow, Steady and boring wins the race.
I hope it peaks, but I will not peek to check.
I love learning about index investing and the added bonus of grammar lessons they are invaluable. LOL. :beer
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

Buddtholomew
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Buddtholomew » Fri May 30, 2014 1:04 pm

stemikger wrote:
Buddtholomew wrote:
stemikger wrote:I try and follow what Jack has been teaching for years. Pick an asset allocation that enables you to sleep at night and matches your goals and "DON'T PEAK". If you do that, you really don't know what the daily or yearly market is doing. But if I had a choice, boring is preferable. Slow, Steady and boring wins the race.
I hope it peaks, but I will not peek to check.
I love learning about index investing and the added bonus of grammar lessons they are invaluable. LOL. :beer
Identifying the appropriate word to use - choose and chose, principal and principle, effect and affect are some others that drive me batty :happy
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by bonaire27 » Fri May 30, 2014 1:09 pm

Buddtholomew wrote:
stemikger wrote:
Buddtholomew wrote:
stemikger wrote:I try and follow what Jack has been teaching for years. Pick an asset allocation that enables you to sleep at night and matches your goals and "DON'T PEAK". If you do that, you really don't know what the daily or yearly market is doing. But if I had a choice, boring is preferable. Slow, Steady and boring wins the race.
I hope it peaks, but I will not peek to check.
I love learning about index investing and the added bonus of grammar lessons they are invaluable. LOL. :beer
Identifying the appropriate word to use - choose and chose, principal and principle, effect and affect are some others that drive me batty :happy
I can never get advise and advice right. On this board, it seems I should try to get it straight.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by cheese_breath » Fri May 30, 2014 1:38 pm

bonaire27 wrote:
Buddtholomew wrote:
stemikger wrote:
Buddtholomew wrote:
stemikger wrote:I try and follow what Jack has been teaching for years. Pick an asset allocation that enables you to sleep at night and matches your goals and "DON'T PEAK". If you do that, you really don't know what the daily or yearly market is doing. But if I had a choice, boring is preferable. Slow, Steady and boring wins the race.
I hope it peaks, but I will not peek to check.
I love learning about index investing and the added bonus of grammar lessons they are invaluable. LOL. :beer
Identifying the appropriate word to use - choose and chose, principal and principle, effect and affect are some others that drive me batty :happy
I can never get advise and advice right. On this board, it seems I should try to get it straight.
Just don't get straight confused with strait. :D
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by allserene » Sat May 31, 2014 9:57 am

Levett wrote:"how much luck has to do with it all, isn't it?"

Yes, Doc.

But of the bazillions of posts one rarely sees "luck" cited as an important--perhaps essential--factor.

There is the grand illusion of "skill"--the self-made, above-average tilter, the builder of the world's greatest mousetrap, the Factor Master.
;-)

Lev
I concur. My life, including my investing life, has been outrageously lucky. Example: When I lived in Washington State, I went on the roof to fix a shingle and the wind blew the ladder away and stranded me up there. I waited 2 hours and a woman came along the street - I shouted to her and asked her to get a man to put the ladder back up. She put it up and said she worked for the local hydro dam as a safety officer training people in how to put ladders up safely. I did get wiped out in 2008 but got it all back and then some. If I moved the lot into my bank savings account right now, just before the limited nuclear attack in the south china sea, it might help my luck even more.
José Delores says It is better to know where to go and not know how, than to know how to go, and not know where

BenBritt
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by BenBritt » Sat May 31, 2014 6:38 pm

Love this boring stuff.

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cheese_breath
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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by cheese_breath » Sat May 31, 2014 6:49 pm

cheese_breath wrote:Boring is good.
Upon further reflection I need to amend my answer. Boring is better than downward volatility but not as good as upward volatility.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

Post by Dale_G » Sat May 31, 2014 10:05 pm

I didn't answer the poll. Despite my tag line, "volatility is my friend", I didn't enjoy 1973/1974, 1987, 2001/2002 or 2008/2009. Neither do I take much pleasure in trending markets - up or down. Maybe I am jaded, the market gives what it gives. Treating investments as a business matter eliminates the fun. It also eliminates some of the emotion that can lead to mistakes.

Now, if I am awake and alert during the next "flash crash", that could be fun.

Dale
Volatility is my friend

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