"The market is at an inflection point"

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pjstack
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"The market is at an inflection point"

Post by pjstack » Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:32 pm

For those of you who follow the Elliot Wave theory (and I doubt many here do), here is an exposition of coming events. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ma ... 2014-01-21

It is a mind numbing series of "things to look for" to forecast the coming market pullback (or, maybe not).
It's easy for me to make fun of stuff I don't understand, but really, does anyone understand this stuff? I offer it as a sure cure for insomnia. :?
pjstack

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Dutch
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Dutch » Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:41 pm

Summary: bla bla - hedge hedge - bla bla

The Wizard
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by The Wizard » Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:07 pm

Insomnia cure indeed.
I've tried reading that guy's stuff from time to time.
I don't want to use foul language here, so let's just say he pens creative fiction...
Attempted new signature...

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fourwedge
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by fourwedge » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:57 pm

More wishful thinking. The sky is falling again.
Max out your tax sheltered retirement accounts with inexpensive, well diversified, index funds and you will beat 90% of all investors.

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baw703916
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by baw703916 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:03 pm

Don't we have to establish that the market price function is twice differentiable before claiming that the value of its second derivative is zero? :?:
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

MnD
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by MnD » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:44 pm

I heard today on the radio that we are in a sideways market. :mrgreen:

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Dale_G
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Dale_G » Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:17 am

However, my preferred count is that we are just about done with a smaller-degree 4th wave consolidation within wave (5), as long as we maintain support over the 1826/28ES region.
I disagree entirely. We have to maintain support over the 1827.31/28.32ES region in order to be done with the smaller-degree 4th wave consolidation, assuming of course that it occurs during a waning gibbous moon phase, if not all bets are off, unless it turns out differently, in which case, I told you so.

The Elliot Wave theory has been around for a long time. Long enough for a few thousand bagillionaires to turn up extolling its virtues. The silence is deafening.

Dale
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nisiprius
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by nisiprius » Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:20 am

Given that I don't believe we even can tell when the market is at a maximum or a minimum, nobody who's played around with math enough to understand the degree of precision you'd need to call an inflection point would take such a statement seriously.

The Bureau of Economic Research won't even commit itself to whether we are in a recession or not until it is over.

Even in the case of a perfect curve with no noise it is hard to tell an inflection point. Just to take one particular case: the curve of world population is far smoother than any financial variable you will ever chart, but they have been arguing for half a century now on where the inflection point is. Ditto oil production.

The main thing to take from articles like this is that it is in the Wall Street Journal's Marketwatch. In other words, at any given point in time, a meaningful percentage of all the rational actors whose invisible hand guides the efficient market are judging valuations using the equivalent of Raven's Lucky Numbers Dream Book.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

ot1138
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by ot1138 » Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:14 pm

When I was much younger, I got my hands on an exceedingly rare copy of one of Elliott's early works. There was no mention of waves at the time. Not one.

This book discussed his method for multiplying each significant high and low by various "golden ratios". I did this using his method with a number of securities and found that there were a whole heck of a lot of important support/resistance points, often within a few cents of each other. I eventually programmed it and use statistical analysis to find the most important ones. Very interesting stuff.

Never could trade it though. I threw in the towel, became an entrepreneur, and made my millions the hard way (I earned them).

Sidney
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Sidney » Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:41 pm

Blue Line theory is much easier to follow, and technically, probably more accurate.
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

Professor Emeritus
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Professor Emeritus » Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:44 pm

pjstack wrote:For those of you who follow the Elliot Wave theory (and I doubt many here do), here is an exposition of coming events. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ma ... 2014-01-21

It is a mind numbing series of "things to look for" to forecast the coming market pullback (or, maybe not).
It's easy for me to make fun of stuff I don't understand, but really, does anyone understand this stuff? I offer it as a sure cure for insomnia. :?

J.P Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do, replied,
It will fluctuate.

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Ged
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Ged » Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:45 pm

What kind of inflection point? Stationary or non-stationary?

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Clearly_Irrational
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Clearly_Irrational » Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:47 pm

I played around with Elliot Wave theory quite a bit back when I was active trading but I could never make it work. As a backwards looking explanatory device it's actually pretty good, for forward predictions you always seem to end up with something like "Wave three is either over or half over" which is essentially worthless. On the other hand I had quite a bit of luck with triangles (ascending/descending) and Bollinger Band squeezes.

Sriracha
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Sriracha » Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:55 pm

Professor Emeritus wrote:
pjstack wrote:For those of you who follow the Elliot Wave theory (and I doubt many here do), here is an exposition of coming events. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ma ... 2014-01-21

It is a mind numbing series of "things to look for" to forecast the coming market pullback (or, maybe not).
It's easy for me to make fun of stuff I don't understand, but really, does anyone understand this stuff? I offer it as a sure cure for insomnia. :?

J.P Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do, replied,
It will fluctuate.
Hard to argue with Morgan on that score :-)
Don't reach for yield.

FafnerMorell
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by FafnerMorell » Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:07 pm

From Wikipedia: Homer is traveling by air in first class and says "Look at me, I'm reading The Economist. Did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?" and when questioned by his wife, he simply replies "It is!" Four days later, The Economist indeed had an article about Indonesia referring to the "crossroads", and mentioned the Simpsons episode in short weekly commentaries. The title of the issue was "Indonesia's Gambit".

Somehow, "The market is at an inflection point" seems to be the financial equivalent of Indonesia at the crossroads.

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Epsilon Delta
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Epsilon Delta » Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:02 pm

Ged wrote:What kind of inflection point? Stationary or non-stationary?
More importantly business speak or English. "Inflection point" is like "quantum jump" in that it means different things to different audiences. Math/science has priority in both cases.

Leeraar
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Re: "The market is at an inflection point"

Post by Leeraar » Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:23 pm

I made a 3D plot of prices with Momentum on one axis and Reversion to the Mean on the other, and came up with irrefutable proof that prices are at a saddle point.

L.
You can get what you want, or you can just get old. (Billy Joel, "Vienna")

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