We are pleased to announce Registration for the 2014 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's learn from what happened in 2013: 2013 Boglehead Contest
* The S&P 500 Index had a December 31, 2013 closing price of 1848. This represents a 12-month gain of +29.6% (if dividends are included the gain was +31.9%). It was the S&P's biggest annual gain since 1997. Such gains don't happen often.
* Boglehead guesses ranged form 1035 to 2579. Does anyone really know? Of course not.
* Only 6 out of 422 Bogleheads (1.4%), and none of the 11 Wall Street forecasters, guessed how high the S&P 500 Index would go (51 thought it would go down). Once again we see that it is impossible (except by luck) to forecast the stock market.
Peppers, won our 2013 Boglehead Contest with his guess of 1854. He wrote:
I will mail Peppers the latest edition of our Bogleheads' Guide to Investing and Jack Bogle will send Peppers an autographed copy of Peppers book of choice."Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile"
The 2014 winner will receive the same prizes.
Rules for the 2014 Boglehead Contest:
* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2014.
* Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
* Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET January 10, 2014.
* In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
* Post your forecast below.
HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!
Taylor Larimore and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST TRACKING SITE