REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

[iceport]

1957.80


Aiming for average...

[Don Christy]

2119.17

[second-guesser]

1570.82

[Harold]

2362.7

[ciscovp]

2077.71

[Wind_Reaver]

1219.68

Thanks for the contest. A lesson well learned.

[VictoriaF]

We've reached the end of the registration. Let's see how we've spread.

Victoria

[Taylor Larimore]

Bogleheads:

We have more than 500 Bogleheads forecasting where the S&P 500 Index will be 12 months from now.

Boglehead Ralph Arvesen will soon have you listed in his Tracking Site. Once again I expect the average Boglehead to out-guess Wall Street's professional "forecasters."

Consider yourself a good guesser if you are in the left-hand (above average) column on Ralph's Tracking Site.

Thank you for your participation in our Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast the stock market.

Best wishes
Taylor and Ralph

[rarvesen]

Random number generator in excel gave me 20,763.83. An 11.23% gain. Hope to do better but would be happy with that.

Did you mean 2,076.38? I assume that's the case, but please let me know if you really meant 20,763.83.

[Taylor Larimore]

Bogleheads:

Ralph Arvesen has entered the names and forecasts of 489 Boglehead "guessers" and 14 Wall Street gurus into his tracking site. It's a big job and we are very appreciative.

Forecasts for the price of the S&P 500 Index at year's end range from Linenfort's bear guess of 885 to K66's bull guess of 3,146 with everyone else between. Today the S&P closed at 1845. Let the Contest begin!

2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST TRACKING SITE

Best wishes
Taylor

[MarginalCost]

Bogleheads:

Ralph Arvesen has entered the names and forecasts of 489 Boglehead "guessers" and 14 Wall Street gurus into his tracking site. It's a big job and we are very appreciative.

Forecasts for the price of the S&P 500 Index at year's end range from Linenfort's bear guess of 885 to K66's bull guess of 3,146 with everyone else between. Today the S&P closed at 1845. Let the Contest begin!

2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST TRACKING SITE

Best wishes
Taylor

If I'm reading the tracker right, his guess was 960, which is currently 885 off from the 1845 close.

[twindad57]

1990 or a 7.7% gain before reinvested dividends.

[Sheepdog]

This year it is interesting that the average Boglehead's forecast is amazingly close to the average "Expert's"
Total entries Bogleheads 489 Experts 14
Average guess Bogleheads 1958.40 Experts 1949.14

[VictoriaF]

This year it is interesting that the average Boglehead's forecast is amazingly close to the average "Expert's"
Total entries Bogleheads 489 Experts 14
Average guess Bogleheads 1958.40 Experts 1949.14

The experts are plagiarizing.

Victoria

[LadyGeek]

I'd like to remind everyone that the wiki has a link to the contest on the left side menu (Links section) as Bogleheads® contest.

Be sure to check your entry and report back errors.

Taylor - There are 5 entries for 2000.00. I hope you're prepared to issue 5 first place prizes.

[rarvesen]

I'd like to remind everyone that the wiki has a link to the contest on the left side menu (Links section) as Bogleheads® contest.

Be sure to check your entry and report back errors.

Taylor - There are 5 entries for 2000.00. I hope you're prepared to issue 5 first place prizes.

Thanks for the reminder for people to check their entries, it's a manual process, and I heard the person entering the data makes a lot of mistakes (me). On entries with the same guess, everyone can have the satisfaction of knowing they won, but only the first entry entered officially wins.

[LadyGeek]

Ralph, thanks for the correction. I missed that rule, which is clearly stated in Taylor's first post:

...Rules for the 2014 Boglehead Contest:

* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2014.
* Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
* Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET January 10, 2014.
* In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
* Post your forecast below.

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!
Taylor Larimore and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)

I can appreciate the effort it took to enter the data. Thank you.

[iceport]

I'd like to remind everyone that the wiki has a link to the contest on the left side menu (Links section) as Bogleheads® contest.

Be sure to check your entry and report back errors.

Taylor - There are 5 entries for 2000.00.

Actually, I did a very cursory scan of the entries and found something like 78 entries that are guaranteed not to win because an identical entry was posted earlier. That's almost 16% of Bogleheads that locked themselves out of any chance to win!

--Peter

[Taylor Larimore]

Peter:

I started the series of contests in 2001 for the primary purpose of demonstrating how useless it is to try to forecast the stock market--even by so-called "gurus."

Contestants don't need to win to benefit from their participation -- although receiving a book with a personal message from by Mr. Bogle is very nice. Being a contestant is like running in the Boston marathon. We learn a little bit about ourselves, and finishing in the upper half is reward enough.

Best wishes.
Taylor

[peppers]

I'll second that on the note from Mr. John Bogle

Peppers - Winner* of the 2013 Bogleheads Contest




* Put a plug in for my "prognosticating" squirrels.

[HawaiiBrewer]

Peter:

Being a contestant is like running in the Boston marathon. We learn a little bit about ourselves, and finishing in the upper half is reward enough.

Best wishes.
Taylor

I did that in 1994 and still feel it was one of my most accomplished sports events......

[cb474]

Actually, I did a very cursory scan of the entries and found something like 78 entries that are guaranteed not to win because an identical entry was posted earlier. That's almost 16% of Bogleheads that locked themselves out of any chance to win!

--Peter

Yeah, I changed my entry, before the deadline, after I realized I had made that mistake. Obviously it's a long thread and people aren't reading the whole thread, which is just a boring list of numbers, before putting in their entry. And a lot of people are making similar assumptions. Round numbers seem to attract people. Also some entries, are based on a certain percentage, like a 5% gain, resulting in people putting the same number (that was how I got in trouble). It seems wise to include a guess out to the hundredths, with the digits after the decimal place being random, so as so avoid duplications by people using the same logic.

This year it is interesting that the average Boglehead's forecast is amazingly close to the average "Expert's"
Total entries Bogleheads 489 Experts 14
Average guess Bogleheads 1958.40 Experts 1949.14

Is it possible that there is a wisdom of the crowd effect here, like election markets? How does the average of forecasts for the market tend to do?

[k66]

Big thanks to Ralph, Tayler, et al for putting this together!

Bogleheads:
Forecasts for the price of the S&P 500 Index at year's end range from Linenfort's bear guess of 885 to K66's bull guess of 3,146 with everyone else between. Today the S&P closed at 1845. Let the Contest begin!

I like to think of my entry (3146.88) as being more like a bull-schtick guess... it is simply the digits of last year's close rearranged.

[iceport]

This year it is interesting that the average Boglehead's forecast is amazingly close to the average "Expert's"
Total entries Bogleheads 489 Experts 14
Average guess Bogleheads 1958.40 Experts 1949.14

Is it possible that there is a wisdom of the crowd effect here, like election markets? How does the average of forecasts for the market tend to do?

It seems so...

Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- 2 more trading days.

--Peter

[iceport]

Peter:

I started the series of contests in 2001 for the primary purpose of demonstrating how useless it is to try to forecast the stock market--even by so-called "gurus."

Contestants don't need to win to benefit from their participation -- although receiving a book with a personal message from by Mr. Bogle is very nice. Being a contestant is like running in the Boston marathon. We learn a little bit about ourselves, and finishing in the upper half is reward enough.

Best wishes.
Taylor

You're right, of course, Taylor.

However, if there's a chance -- no matter how small -- that I can win a book signed by Jack Bogle by simply typing in a guess, I wouldn't want to throw that chance away!



--Peter

[madbrain]

All 500 companies currently in the S&P500 will go out of business after the cash piles they are currently hoarding abroad are seized by foreign governments.

On December 31, the index will be comprised of 500 new entities, which currently either trade as penny stocks, or are unlisted.
These disruptive companies will have geometric rises in stock prices, and the S&P500 index will close at 36,000 .

The Fed's tapering, causing interest rates to rise, will cause a "bond massacre", by which I mean that bonds will again lose about 4% of their value in real terms, except for bonds denominated in bitcoins, which will skyrocket.

Gold prices will crater to $2/ounce, as nearly everyone on earth realizes its uselessness, all at once.

For my forecast on international equities, including emerging markets, please subscribe to my newsletter.

I realize it was a long post, but I did make a prediction of S&P 36,000 in that post, yet I don't see on the contest tracking page at http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/con ... fault.aspx .

My post was on Jan 2, so I think I met the deadline.

[jf89]

Got bored at work this morning and the contest popped into my head... the tracking website doesn't seem to be working. Could just be my work servers.

Anyway, could anyone post an update if they have access?

[investor4life]

1949 (where it is today as I post )

[LadyGeek]

It's working for me: Boglehead Contest 2014

Something must be wrong. The top 3 positions are held by the pros (with a "♦" to the right of the score).

The link is also in the left-side menu of the wiki, under "Links."

[gotherelate]

First time I've seen my pick in first place. Won't last long.

[LadyGeek]

I did see you earlier in 2nd... now it's 14th.

The website updates every 15 minutes.

[gatorman]

1562, off 22%.
gatorman

[berntson]

Only 193.94 points to go! [My random number generator was pretty bullish this year.]

[crg11]

2111.20

[JW-Retired]

2019.0

[pjstack]

2033.0 is my guess.

[LadyGeek]

To be clear, entries for the contest closed in January. The thread was bumped because someone had a problem with the website.

[Noobvestor]

So it's too late to up my entry? Because we need a crash fast for me to be a contender!