REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:00 am

Bogleheads:

We are pleased to announce Registration for the 2014 Boglehead Contest. But first, let's learn from what happened in 2013: 2013 Boglehead Contest

* The S&P 500 Index had a December 31, 2013 closing price of 1848. This represents a 12-month gain of +29.6% (if dividends are included the gain was +31.9%). It was the S&P's biggest annual gain since 1997. Such gains don't happen often.

* Boglehead guesses ranged form 1035 to 2579. Does anyone really know? Of course not.

* Only 6 out of 422 Bogleheads (1.4%), and none of the 11 Wall Street forecasters, guessed how high the S&P 500 Index would go (51 thought it would go down). Once again we see that it is impossible (except by luck) to forecast the stock market.

Peppers, won our 2013 Boglehead Contest with his guess of 1854. He wrote:
"Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile"
I will mail Peppers the latest edition of our Bogleheads' Guide to Investing and Jack Bogle will send Peppers an autographed copy of Peppers book of choice.

The 2014 winner will receive the same prizes.

Rules for the 2014 Boglehead Contest:

* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2014.
* Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
* Registration ends 12:00 midnight ET January 10, 2014.
* In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
* Post your forecast below.

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!
Taylor Larimore and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)

2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST TRACKING SITE
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

chw
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by chw » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:04 am

Another strong year- 2085.

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mhc
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mhc » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:05 am

2014

My guess is the same as the year. Hopefully, it won't set a trend.

WhyNotUs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by WhyNotUs » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:06 am

2014

Could not resist :sharebeer
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX

gffisher
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gffisher » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:07 am

1968.12

tim1999
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tim1999 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:07 am

1702.

WhyNotUs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by WhyNotUs » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:07 am

Oops, two Coloradans respond with same answer at same time!
Must be the water.
I own the next hot stock- VTSAX

letsgobobby
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:08 am

If you believe in reversion to the mean, you should go with me. Because I was 422 out of 433 guesses in 2013.

Crystal ball says... 1426.

sport
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sport » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:09 am

1987.0
Jeff

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JamesSFO
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JamesSFO » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:10 am

I'm going to go with 1960 (approx 6% increase).

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BigFoot48
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1790.29

Post by BigFoot48 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:14 am

I'm going pessimistic. The S&P will drop by 3.1416% to 1790.29!
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

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midareff
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by midareff » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:18 am

My guess is 1848 and a Shakespearean year, much ado about nothing.

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FrugalInvestor
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FrugalInvestor » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:18 am

2095.3
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

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cfs
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cfs » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:19 am

2076.44
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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JMacDonald
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JMacDonald » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:22 am

1755.94
Best Wishes, | Joe

WendyW
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Re: 1790.29

Post by WendyW » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:24 am

BigFoot48 wrote:I'm going pessimistic. The S&P will drop by 3.1416% to 1790.29!
I'm with BigFoot48; I suspect that the S&P will end the year somewhat lower than it began.

Put me down for a 2014 S&P 500 close of 1777; a negative return... about -4%.

unclebuck
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by unclebuck » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:27 am

1948.00

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LAlearning
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LAlearning » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:28 am

2070.

Happy New Year everyone!
I know nothing!

bcjb
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bcjb » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:29 am

1979.

I didn't win the Mega Millions jackpot but maybe the Boglehead contest has better odds?

Ps thanks so much for organizing this, Taylor and others. Excellent prizes too!

On the way
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by On the way » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:32 am

1995.

g koz
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by g koz » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:35 am

1766.67

g koz

henry001
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by henry001 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:37 am

1920

Henry001

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indexfundfan
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by indexfundfan » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:40 am

1912.12
My signature has been deleted.

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cheese_breath
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cheese_breath » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:41 am

2015.

Had to one-up those 2014 guesses.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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LiveSimple
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LiveSimple » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:42 am

2365.68
Last edited by LiveSimple on Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.

chaz
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by chaz » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:43 am

1963.01
Chaz | | “Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen | | http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

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elgob.bogle
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by elgob.bogle » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:45 am

2001 - A SPACED OUT ODYSSEY is my 2014 prediction

elgob

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speedbump101
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by speedbump101 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:45 am

2005.47
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein

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tyler_cracker
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tyler_cracker » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:47 am

1776.74

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camper
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by camper » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:48 am

2053.31

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Mel Lindauer
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mel Lindauer » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:51 am

1313.13

Same as every year since the WAGing contest started and hope I'm in last place.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi

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theduke
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by theduke » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:52 am

1850.

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RedRose
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RedRose » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:53 am

1956.0

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Dan_NoVA
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dan_NoVA » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:54 am

No question about this year... 1958. :mrgreen:

michaellarimore
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by michaellarimore » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:55 am

My Guess is 2033

cudaman
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by cudaman » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:56 am

1977.36

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ruralavalon
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:58 am

2051.28
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Mick
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mick » Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:59 am

1990 was a good year for me so I'll go with...1990!

IronHorse1928
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by IronHorse1928 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:00 pm

1977
Happy New Year to all. Thanks to those who contribute to this site to make this an excellent resource for sensible investors.

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Cb
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Cb » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:01 pm

1858.

Emeralds
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Emeralds » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:02 pm

1725

the future is unwritten

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Rob54keep
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Rob54keep » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:03 pm

2020 :happy

r60rider
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by r60rider » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:06 pm

2000


good luck to all in 2014!


Gary

reventon
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by reventon » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:07 pm

2005

first time in this contest, it'll be interesting to see how far off i'll be next year

maverick1968
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by maverick1968 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:10 pm

1940.4

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SquawkIdent
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by SquawkIdent » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:11 pm

1755.93

Happy New Year!!

mark18068
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mark18068 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:11 pm

2092.31

Happy new year folks!

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Tortuga
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Tortuga » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:19 pm

2051.28

redrum
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by redrum » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:20 pm

2143.

Johm221122
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Johm221122 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:21 pm

1700
Happy New year
John

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